Ever wonder what the weather holds in store? Or how much snow might pile in Wyoming’s mountain ranges, or when spring melt might begin?

Much of that vital information, including Wyoming-specific water and drought modeling, comes from the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado, and its Wyoming Supercomputing Center in Cheyenne. 

Now the fate of the institution — as well as the vital information it provides for the state’s agriculture, tourism and energy industries — is uncertain.

Last week, a Trump administration official announced that NCAR would be dismantled. In a social media post Tuesday, Office of Management and Budget Director Russell Vought described NCAR as “one of the largest sources of climate alarmism in the country,” and said the administration “will be breaking up” the institution. 

“A comprehensive review is underway & any vital activities such as weather research will be moved to another entity or location,” Vought added.

Days later, however, Colorado Sens. Michael Bennet and John Hickenlooper — both Democrats — stalled the Senate’s budget process in protest of the move to dismantle NCAR.

If the Trump administration overcomes such efforts, it’s unclear what will happen to NCAR and its Wyoming Supercomputing Center. The Cheyenne facility, established in 2012, may be offloaded to “an appropriate operator,” according to an NCAR statement Thursday.

“The [U.S. National Science Foundation] will publish a Dear Colleague Letter that will inform the agency’s follow-on actions,” NCAR said. “Specifically, NSF will explore options to transfer stewardship of the NCAR-Wyoming Supercomputer to an appropriate operator; divest of or transfer the two NSF aircraft that NCAR manages and operates; and redefine the scope of modeling and forecasting research and operations to concentrate on needs such as seasonal weather prediction, severe storms, and space weather.”

Renowned climate scientist Katharine Hayhoe, a professor at Texas Tech University who serves as the Nature Conservancy’s chief scientist, referred to NCAR as “quite literally our global mothership.

“The National Center for Atmospheric Research,” Hayhoe continued in a social media post, “supports the scientists who fly into hurricanes, the meteorologists who develop new radar technology, the physicists who envision and code new weather models, and yes — the largest community climate model in the world. That too. Dismantling NCAR is like taking a sledgehammer to the keystone holding up our scientific understanding of the planet.”

Closer to home, University of Wyoming Geology and Geophysics Professor J.J. Shinker, who relies on both NCAR in Colorado and the Wyoming supercomputer, said, “Dismantling NCAR has implications for Wyoming, for our students, for our research and for Wyoming’s future well-being.”

NCAR and Wyoming

NCAR’s supercomputing center has maintained a close relationship with the state and the University of Wyoming since its inception, logging hundreds of “core hours” for “Wyoming-led projects in the atmospheric, earth system, geological and other areas of science of interest to Wyoming,” according to the university.

Shinker, her university colleagues and her students, rely on both the supercomputer and NCAR’s Colorado headquarters.

“I use NCAR data from that supercomputer for a class that I teach in the spring semester, and I’m really hoping that it’s not impacted,” Shinker told WyoFile. “NCAR and its resources — the data and the people — are integral to Wyoming’s economy.”

That’s particularly the case for drought monitoring — “a big issue in our state,” Shinker said. “Our agricultural industry, our ag suppliers — they require updated, real-time, quality-controlled data, and that is one of the things that NCAR provides with that supercomputer and with their personnel resources. Dismantling that would put Wyoming’s economy at risk.”

Even before statehood, Wyoming’s evolving economy has always been built around the “pulse” of its climate, Shinker explained. That’s particularly the case when it comes to the pulse of precipitation, winter snowpack and spring runoff. Understanding weather outlook modeling and larger precipitation, temperature and drought trends are vital to those who rely on water for everything from outdoor recreation to wildfire vulnerability and when to plant certain crops. 

“What’s crazy is, that supercomputer receives satellite data and data from buoys in the ocean that tell us about things like El Niño and La Niña, which I do research on,” Shinker said. “We’re not doing subversive research. We’re doing research that is in support of the well-being of the state of Wyoming, because most of the research that my students and I work on is about drought.”

In a more direct economic sense, NCAR’s Wyoming supercomputer helped launch Cheyenne’s growing tech and data center industry, Cheyenne Mayor Patrick Collins told WyoFile. Microsoft was among the first major tech companies to set up shop in Cheyenne, which Collins attributes, in large part, to the supercomputer. Today, Microsoft plans to expand its computing presence there. Meta, as well as a joint venture between Crusoe and Tallgrass, have also announced plans to build data centers in the area, mostly driven by demand for artificial intelligence computing.  

The growing industry provides “super high-quality jobs,” Collins told WyoFile, adding “these are philanthropic companies, so they’re giving a lot back to the community.” It would be a “huge loss” for the University of Wyoming and Cheyenne if the supercomputer was no longer an entity.

“Just the reputation of having NCAR and having Microsoft, having Meta — all the different [tech] companies that have chosen to be here really helps us in our reputation to bring other businesses here,” Collins said.

Beyond Cheyenne’s and Wyoming’s stake in the tech industry, Collins said the loss of NCAR’s work in atmospheric sciences would be a major hit.

“I see a lot of value in those kinds of things — the early warnings we get, which gives us the ability to protect our populations, and the academics and the stuff that comes from that, really does help our communities.”