You can't un-pull that plug but you can double the tendie allowance Nana left you.
Caris Life Sciences ($CAI) IPOed in June after Medicare agreed to bankrupt itself paying Caris $8455 per cancer test (ctrl+F '0211U' billing code in SEC filing).
The Financial Meat: 40-80% upside
- Q3 2025: $217M revenue (113% YoY growth)
- Full year 2025 guidance: $720-730M (up from prior guidance, 75-77% YoY growth)
- Recently achieved positive net income and positive adjusted EBITDA ($51.2M in Q3)
- Strong cash generation: $62.4M operating cash flow in Q3 vs. burning $69.4M in Q3 2024
- Market cap: ~$7B
- Analyst consensus: Strong Buy with price targets $36-45
The Opening Nov 5 CAI holds holds after-hours earnings call announcing stellar beat. Nov 6 the market shits itself. CAI tanks and is still on sale at $25.
The Tech Moat
- One Test To Rule Them All Not just DNA like competitors - they do DNA, RNA, AND protein analysis. Everything from one standardized test, which gives them efficiency, which gives them profitability. Compare that to competitors like TempusAI (TEM) which offer a dozen disparate tests. Which test is Nana's Oncologist supposed to pick, huh? Did you think of that? With Caris, Nana gets all testing by checking ONE box, and Medicare pays for it.
- The 959,000+ total molecular profiles, 660,000+ with matched clinical outcomes. Practically the Palantir of cancer data.
- Proprietary AI/ML algorithms trained on this massive dataset.
- Blood-based test (Caris Assure) for liquid biopsy - tracks cancer without invasive tissue biopsy.
Revenue Drivers
- Clinical therapy selection - oncologists ordering tests for treatment decisions.
- Biopharma partnerships.
- Expanding into early detection and MRD (minimal residual disease) monitoring - huge TAM expansion but lots of competition. H1 2026 holds the key execution risk, but Caris has already proven they are strong at execution - just look at their $8455 Medicare reimbursement for a single, streamlined solid tissue tumor test.
TL;DR
- Cancer treatment is moving from "spray and pray chemo" to "test first, treat smart, keep Nana alive longer".
- CAI has the biggest database of which cancer mutations respond to which drugs.
- More data = better AI = competitive moat that gets stronger over time.
- Revenue literally doubled YoY.
- Not a meme or hope stock - actual revenue, actual customers, actual positive EPS.
- Key risk is H1 2026 execution of launching Minimal Residual Disease (MRD) and Early Cancer Detection liquid biopsy assays. Caris had excellent execution of prior assay with whopping $8455 per test Medicare reimbursement.
- Massive earnings beat flew under the radar.
Position
High how do you think this will go?
I think MRD and MCED aren't priced in. CAI needs to launch both products for the stock to hit $40.
CAI published a paper this summer showing excellent performance with their unified WES/WTS liquid biopsy platform. Despite this, the most recent earnings call mentioned pivoting to WGS.
Seems fishy.
Bro it’s biotech. Why bet money like this?
Small cap pharma with a make or break clinical trial - that's what biotech brings to mind. Caris isn't banking on a biotech breakthrough - they just need to launch MRD & MCED. Neither tech is mature, but neither is rocket science either. If they don't launch in a timely manner then they need a new CEO, that's all.
I would let grail know that it ain’t rocket science!