Eh? You missed the main ones - if you’re an accredited investor, buy into a fund that bought interests in cap table VC funds. Or go to EquityZen/Forge and indicate your interest. They email you the next time they have some, and you buy it. The former is a bit Wild West, but the latter’s been good in my experience.
Eh, if Tesla is anything to go by then space x will be overtaken in about 10 years and be the least effective company in the space.
Edit: wow this triggered a lot of idiots. Tesla had a 5 year + head start (except reliability and they rank dead last) on everyone and are somehow behind in every vertical they offer.
Maybe but there was never anything special about Teslas from an engineering perspective. The hard part about Tesla was starting a car company from scratch when there was little demand for their product. Sure there were some innovative things like the Octovalve but that's nothing compared to landing a giant rocket.
Fun fact: Elon demanded downsizing and massive layoffs because it was in vogue at the time for stock bumps. The leaders of the team in charge of the supercharger rollouts tried to resist this, since they were absolutely fucking killing it and it's a very long process that requires expertise in ongoing intricacies.
So he fired the entire team. Of the fastest-growing part of his business with the longest potential impact. Out of petty rage that a manager dare resist layoffs of good employees in a growing, profitable business.
You don't get it. He is a smartest man alive and he sees 20 steps ahead. It's bullish for Tesla because he obviously saw something no one else does. /s
I think that tesla was designed to be good at development, but didn’t focus enough on the quality.
From an engineering perspective, they still have the most efficient drivetrains by around 10%. That is a significant improvement, and reduces their battery cost, and charging cost compared to other cars.
The issue is that wasn’t the most difficult part of an EV. It ended up that consumers needed high quality in production and design, rather than technical improvements.
I see is that SpaceX is similar, and the hope is that space is a difficult enough problem that the development and performance side will be the driver of who wins the market.
Dunning Kruger. The battery idea alone was ingenious while at the same time being ridiculed. 8000 laptop batteries with fuses where if any one fails, it doesn't take the pack out vs some big, crappy "automotive" grade battery with less range and life cycles (Volt, Leaf).
Elon's "Battery day" and bigger cells had been one of the biggest flops, only overshadowed by the metal trashcan of a truck.
What about landing the rocket leads to a 1.5 trillion valuation though? Other companies have done it. Their main revenue source is internet satellites, so why aren’t they valued similarly to the total value of that industry in a best case scenario?
What about landing the rocket leads to a 1.5 trillion valuation though? Other companies have done it.
One other company has done it once, and they haven't reused their rocket yet. SpaceX still has a massive gap to other launch providers, and that's with their existing launch services. And the valuation isn't going to be based on Falcon, most of the expected value is coming from Starship, which if it works out is another generational leap ahead of current launch options.
Valuations are inherently speculative, people buy in based on what they expect their returns will be in the future, and there is a very reasonable probability that SpaceX will be doing a lot better 5 to 10 years from now than today, hence the high valuation.
I'm not making any argument about their valuation. I'm pushing back against the idea that their tech will follow a similar trajectory to Tesla as it relates to their competitors. Maybe their competitors will surpass them, maybe not.
From a valuation perspective I don't know anything about the sector. If they can get shit into space reliability and cheaper than anyone else what does that mean from a monetary standpoint? AI says the whole sector is $20 billion so ... unless it's expected to grow exponentially this valuation seems extraordinary.
A large portion of the valuation is future development of starship, and reducing the cost of access to space dramatically. It’s the perception that they will break into other industries beyond just the launch business and internet business.
No he wasn't, that's blatantly false. Elon joined/invested in Tesla in early 2004 (only two other people, no factories, no assets, no designs, didn't even have the rights to the name Tesla yet, basically only existed on paper) and Will I am invested in 2006.
They had a product, just an unfinished one, like most start ups. I'm not arguing that Musk didnt play a important role in Tesla, cuz he obviously did. It's just hysterical to think that he is the sole reason electrical cars exist today.
He got in early in what everyone else saw was the future, the difference being he had the funds to push out the original founders with their original idea.
Because his timelines are often too ambitious and she has made that clear. She coined if I remember correctly Elon time. I believe she will get SpaceX to mars but I don’t think in the way Elon wants. It will still overall be a massive leap but the way the goal post get moved I’d expect equally outrageous claims from Elon when Gwynne and her team gets a starship to orbit.
What have they done to give you any inclination they will get you mars? Their starship program is a monumental embarrassing failure. Saturn V existed decades ago and flew 13 missions in its entirety. Starship has had 11 failures already. Hubris isn’t valuation.
Manned Space is different. I've worked in it for a decade. Your heavily-funded giants like Boeing and Lockheed have too much red tape to compete with agile companies like SpaceX or Blue Origin, and that only gets worse with time. This is similar to Ford or GM being way behind on the EV wave and basically giving up on making consumer cars at all.
In space if you want to do the really large projects you need 10s of billions of dollars and your ROI MIGHT be 10 years out. And unlike other industries it's not like you're generating huge revenue in those 10 years. It's just straight engineering development costs. You might be lucky to get a NASA contract but that generally is still less than your costs and ties you down in so many ways and demands even more resources to verify adherence to the contract and regular reporting.
Look at Axiom as an example. Tons of government funding, still was at risk of not being able to keep the lights on a few times now.
It's no coincidence that the only 2 companies on earth making headway in manned space are led by the 2 richest people on earth, ever. You're not going to raise enough funding telling investors you need a trillion dollars and 20 years. Oh, and you're going to blow up billions of dollars on and off the launch pad on the way.
The Saturn V program had a total of 13 launches over including unmanned tests. During that time that vehicle sent 9 crews to the moon (including Apollo 8 successfully orbiting the moon on its 4th) and launched Skylab. Zero failures. The Saturn V program also pioneered “all up“ testing
SuperHeavy has had 11 launches and that vehicle has yet to achieve orbit and has suffered multiple catastrophic failures.
Eventually you have to reach the point of not breaking stuff anymore. In all seriousness BO got a ton of shit for being late, but they’re looking pretty good right now
They’re competing against nation states that would pay big money to not be dependent on the US and Elon for space tech. Elon himself is the opposite of a moat.
Palantir makes shit software and is overvalued, but they have a big moat having taken over gov contracts like crazy with Thiel probably pulling strings all over the place to get more gov $
We have Blue Origin, 3 other Chinese companies. Do you believe in 10-20 years that the gap between spacex and these companies will widen or shorten? Does spacex have some super special patents that no other company can reproduce?
SpaceX doesn't patent things because patents require disclosing more details about them.
Regardless, whether the gap widens or shortens depends entirely on Starship.
If SpaceX ends up with the first fully-reusable rocket and figures out in-space refueling, the gap is going to get wider. If it fails, than the 10-ish year lead they have on everyone else in the industry will start to shrink, although SpaceX still has 10 years more experience refining their operations around reusability in order to increase launch cadence. Launching 150 times per year when the next closest competitor launches 5 times per year has to suggest some sort of moat.
How much money and how long do you think it would take a new company to design, build, and deliver rockets and a crew module to bring people to the ISS?
Well, let's just look at all the other examples of that being done. Oh wait, literally 0. Not for lack of want. Human space flight has been a goal forever. The moat has been too large for anyone else.
If you threw $50B and 10 years at what PLTR does, you could have a comparable product. Not so with Space X.
Oh yea, the robot armies on Mercury are going to make it worth 100 bazillion gazoogle dollars! I hear Musk talking about it, how it isn't small rocketry / space services company.... no no, IT IS THE FUTURE OF HUMANITY!! And that is worth literally all the money for all of time!!!!!! INVEST NOW! IT"S A STEAL AT THESE PRICES!! lol
Tesla is extremely overvalued but SpaceX is worth a fuck ton simply because they are so far ahead of anybody when it comes to space, and space is a massively growing market.
Lol...pricing in future potential is one thing...maybe price in a couple of years of future growth...but at a 1.5 trillion valuation, you're basically pricing in 10 years or more of revenue growth
And you're not even considering the fact that once it IPOs, apes will bid up the stock because of the hype surrounding it and it will probably reach 3 trillion in market cap
So yea...3 trillion for a company with 15 billion in revenue...why don't you just say it should have a valuation more than NVDA then? Price in asteroid mining and Mars colonization as well then?
I mean average P/E in this inflated economy is already off the charts... And the whole reason they are doing a tiny 5% via IPO is because it brings in retail investors to massively pump the stock, allowing them to get much more for that 5% equity than if they did it privately.
But yeah, I think SpaceX could be worth more than Nvidia. I don't think people realize HOW big of a deal Starship is. They will be absolutely rolling in money
I don't think people realize how much of a game changer Starship will be. They'll be launching literally all day, every day. Elon claims 20 bucks per kg, which is stupid Elon hype, but if he gets it down to 200... Suddenly nearly EVERY data center is being built in space.
You're basically pricing in the potential that if they win, they become one of the biggest companies in the world.
I don't doubt any of the things you are saying with regards to SpaceX's potential...but my point is that if what SpaceX is doing is that important, and that there is money to be made, there will eventually be competitors
You think China is going to just sit idly by and let SpaceX dominate this realm?
Look at what happened with EVs just in the last decade and how Tesla is not the dominant force it once was...it basically has to rely on US protectionism against Chinese EVs to survive in its largest market
How far into this AI build out are we with NVDA and its chips being at the core of this technological revolution? It has only been around 3 years...give it another 7 years or so and just wait and see how NVDA's lead will have diminished because of China or some other development from a competitor
Same thing with what SpaceX is doing...doesn't matter how far ahead of the game they are...if what they are doing turns out to be vital to national interest or makes a shit ton of money, they will have competition that eventually erodes their market share...and it will most likely happen within a decade or less
So this whole thing of valuing SpaceX or any company at ridiculous levels by basically pricing in close to a decade of revenue growth is just stupid
They already unofficially did. Musk said they were doing it on X. Dumb as hell idea but apparently space based data centers is the new CEO saying “AI” on an earnings call
It helps that Musk pioneered the EV landscape and with that one achievement, his fanboys will believe any thing he says
Why stop with data centers in space...he should claim Optimus will mine asteroids and colonize Mars...and then claim that future Teslas will have FSD capabilities to travel to charging outposts that Tesla built in space
The most surprising thing I think people are missing about these space based data centers being proposed is the sheer scale. What is being proposed would have dimensions measured in square kilometers, not square meters. The solar arrays and radiators will be absolutely ginormous. For context, the ISS is something like 110 meters in its longest dimension. Starcloud proposes an orbiting data center with a solar array/radiator that is 4km across.
I don't know the math or whether it means it will actually work, but assuming they've got a pumped coolant loop, that's a lot of surface area to spread heat over and radiate it.
The basic idea is that satellites are generating too much data to send back to earth, so a solution is to put a data center in space shared by multiple satellites where your bandwidth is much higher. The data center does the processing there before condensing it and sending useful info back to earth.
I think the problem is calling it data centres. On a smaller scale, this makes a lot of sense. But even then, it’s not communication satellites, but any satellite doing any science.
That has real value, but it’s never going to match a single data center, nor would we want it to.
The IPOs of SpaceX, Anthropic, OpenAI in a short space of time is going to be an interesting time for the market. Is there that much money sitting on the sidelines or will it get reallocated from other stocks?
Only $30B is being sold of fresh stocks (although this number can go up or down) so I’d definitely think there’s plenty waiting on the sidelines. That said I think a lot of regular folks will prepare by selling other stocks to be ready to buy in. This may create some amazing temporary opportunities to buy into other companies.
that's the interesting thing, there IS lots of money on the sidelines. But from what I can tell, the money is on the sidelines to avoid how unstable the market is rn. And those are going to be very unstable stocks.
For one starlink makes up about 75% of SpaceX’s estimated revenue. Their launch business is a money sink where margins are on a race to the bottom. Starship is going to create a massive hole for the mid-size payload market demand because the HUNDREDS of Falcon 9 launches approved for next year or two will just be standing by. They already fill empty slots with starlink, which will largely move over to starship. Compare that to the… 3 neutrons that rklb will have by 2027. And if space data centers become a thing they definitely won’t be fitting on a neutron.
I’d say the current valuation is fair, based only on growing space systems demand
RKLB excel more in bespoke payloads. SpaceX essentially makes companies carpool their payloads whereas RKLB is equipped for bespoke launches where you can choose their schedule, orbit etc. without breaking the bank.
spacex also does bespoke flights, most people just don't want to build payloads that big. spacex not launching falcon heavy frequently is only because there's not enough demand for it
That’s exactly what I mean - unless you carpool you need to launch a heavy payload for it to make financial sense. IIRC Falcon 9 is a flat fee, not per kg.
Falcon is launched far more frequently than Electron.
Next month. I'll make sure I sell large chunks of stock to institutional friends cheap first before the public get a chance to buy though. Just because.
This is great if you work there, back when I interviewed with them the offers were heavy on equity. So no matter how it turns out at least the engineers just doubled their income for the past year.
By the way, those platforms have sold each share several times over. They're going to be GIGAFUCKED when the IPO happens, because they're going to have to buy those shares at whatever price they can get in order to give liquidity to the "shareholders." That's in quotes, because the customers never actually owned shares, but rather an interest in the platform's shares. I recommend putting a good lawyer on speed dial, because there are going to be some interesting lawsuits.
Not sure about all platforms, but MV actually do acquire the actual shares through SPVs, and yes, those are SpaceX approved sales with signed stock transfer agreements.
There were cases where SPVs failed to acquire the shares (e.g seller failed to secure approval for sale) and the funds were returned to the customers. So they’ve been pretty transparent about it.
While SpaceX does have first right to refusal in terms of buying back shares, they don’t always do that due to a variety of reasons. That’s why a secondary market does exist, but it’s a very small and limited one for a company of such valuation.
In fact, platforms like MV are pretty much getting the scraps during a secondary sales, the big fishes buy millions at a time. An entire MV SPV is pretty much just one of the smaller buyers at a large secondary sale.
No idea how EquityZen or Forge operate exactly in case of SpaceX.
The shares that make it to SPVs are not approved by SpaceX because they have always been very protective of their cap table numbers. There is only one reason why SpaceX doesn't buy the shares in a ROFR deal, and that's if they are unrestricted and SpaceX has no say. Very few of these still exist. But people who insist on giving money to these charlatans cannot be reasoned with. Caveat emptor. It's your money to spend as you wish.
Well we’ll see on how it turns out. If it’s all a scam like you said (what you described is literally security fraud) then I expect these platforms all get sued into oblivions along with investment bankers that sourced larger deals to the order of tens of millions of dollars.
MV has been around for a long time and is a registered broker dealer that is overseen by the SEC and is part of FINRA and SIPC, so I doubt they’d scam people for relatively small amounts while risking the fate of the whole company.
What was possible was the smaller SPVs buying into bigger SPVs through indirect interests (and something SpaceX cannot block), but those interests have to be backed by actual shares and cannot be sold multiple times over, without committing explicit security fraud.
All of Elon's companies are on a 200 year timeline between the underground loops, the self driving everything, the sex robots, the brain chips, and now the trips to mars via SpaceX. You are buying a company who will not return until your kids are raw dogging his Tesla robots.
I camped outside of Starbases platform for like a week on the beach. It’s fucking impressive I’ll be taking a position. They’re plan is to build off world data centers for AI
Buy SATS now to get a piece? They took an ownership stake a few months ago in exchange for spectrum licenses. Hence the +500% gain over the past 6 months.
Lots of people talking about waiting for the IPO to invest: DXYZ is ~23% SpaceX. Also check out Micrventures, likely more expensive per SpaceX share in initial cost and fees, but you're not having to invest in other stuff.
Isn’t teslas absolutely ridiculous valuation based on the fact that maybe Elon will combine his companies? Because there is no fucking planet in this universe that teslas business alone will validate the stock price. If he starts taking his other companies public what does Tesla have? An electric car that’s worse than ask the competitors?
Join WSB Discord
I will absolutely make a lot or lose a lot on this.
I'm pretty sure we will lose a lot because everyone is already invested through institutions or employee stock
I remember the TSLA IPO very well. “$2B+ dollars for a company with basically no sales? That’s crazy.”
How quaint.
Stupid question but as a retailer investor how do you even get in on this?
I hate Elon but after setting up Starlink at my parents house I'm a huge believer in the product. Maybe not at the projected valuation...
You wait for it to IPO (possibly second half of next year) and then buy in.
Yeah that's what I assumed. I did notice that some people get access pre-IPO but it seems you have to be an accredited investor and get lucky?
Here are the possible scenarios for pre-IPO shares, none of which are viable or recommendable for average investors:
Eh? You missed the main ones - if you’re an accredited investor, buy into a fund that bought interests in cap table VC funds. Or go to EquityZen/Forge and indicate your interest. They email you the next time they have some, and you buy it. The former is a bit Wild West, but the latter’s been good in my experience.
That’s covered in #2.
And why isn’t that route reccomendable? The accreditation requirement?
I like Elon because you hate him
Has yearly revenue of 15b.... makes perfect sense lol
PLTR makes $4B annually with a 437B mcap with no MOAT. At least SpaceX has a MOAT and is the future of space travel.
Why are we capitalizing moat
My Other Acronym is Tesla
Mr. Outta Assets Tomorrow
First actual “laugh out loud” I’ve had on Reddit in a while. Thank you.
Because they don't understand what a moat actually is, they just repeat what they read.
and this is exactly why you can thrust anyone on this subreddit
Can’t trust em, but you can thrust em
Are you thrusting us right now?
Thrusting me, thats for sure. Highly recommend.
Rocket pun or like a sex thing?
oh its like a sex and fucking kind of thing u know
If you had to ask it's always sex thing 😁
But they do, and they’re the ones with the moat
But if they read it somewhere else, was it capitalized there too?
Mother Of All Twits
You’re supposed to yell it mentally.
It's not an acronym
Same reason people capitalize FED. Ima go with stupidity.
Mother Of All Trades
I declare MOAT
Eh, if Tesla is anything to go by then space x will be overtaken in about 10 years and be the least effective company in the space.
Edit: wow this triggered a lot of idiots. Tesla had a 5 year + head start (except reliability and they rank dead last) on everyone and are somehow behind in every vertical they offer.
Maybe but there was never anything special about Teslas from an engineering perspective. The hard part about Tesla was starting a car company from scratch when there was little demand for their product. Sure there were some innovative things like the Octovalve but that's nothing compared to landing a giant rocket.
Wasn't one of the goals to get everyone using their batteries and chargers?
Yes, they were capitalizing on a federal program.
Fun fact: Elon demanded downsizing and massive layoffs because it was in vogue at the time for stock bumps. The leaders of the team in charge of the supercharger rollouts tried to resist this, since they were absolutely fucking killing it and it's a very long process that requires expertise in ongoing intricacies.
So he fired the entire team. Of the fastest-growing part of his business with the longest potential impact. Out of petty rage that a manager dare resist layoffs of good employees in a growing, profitable business.
You don't get it. He is a smartest man alive and he sees 20 steps ahead. It's bullish for Tesla because he obviously saw something no one else does. /s
I think that tesla was designed to be good at development, but didn’t focus enough on the quality.
From an engineering perspective, they still have the most efficient drivetrains by around 10%. That is a significant improvement, and reduces their battery cost, and charging cost compared to other cars.
The issue is that wasn’t the most difficult part of an EV. It ended up that consumers needed high quality in production and design, rather than technical improvements.
I see is that SpaceX is similar, and the hope is that space is a difficult enough problem that the development and performance side will be the driver of who wins the market.
Dunning Kruger. The battery idea alone was ingenious while at the same time being ridiculed. 8000 laptop batteries with fuses where if any one fails, it doesn't take the pack out vs some big, crappy "automotive" grade battery with less range and life cycles (Volt, Leaf).
Elon's "Battery day" and bigger cells had been one of the biggest flops, only overshadowed by the metal trashcan of a truck.
What about landing the rocket leads to a 1.5 trillion valuation though? Other companies have done it. Their main revenue source is internet satellites, so why aren’t they valued similarly to the total value of that industry in a best case scenario?
One other company has done it once, and they haven't reused their rocket yet. SpaceX still has a massive gap to other launch providers, and that's with their existing launch services. And the valuation isn't going to be based on Falcon, most of the expected value is coming from Starship, which if it works out is another generational leap ahead of current launch options.
Valuations are inherently speculative, people buy in based on what they expect their returns will be in the future, and there is a very reasonable probability that SpaceX will be doing a lot better 5 to 10 years from now than today, hence the high valuation.
Mining asteroids with 20 quadrillion in gold veins 🤓
Minus shipping & handling
Let’s say he mines 1 trillion of it. How much it will be worth when you try to put that amount on the market? ;)
I'm not making any argument about their valuation. I'm pushing back against the idea that their tech will follow a similar trajectory to Tesla as it relates to their competitors. Maybe their competitors will surpass them, maybe not.
From a valuation perspective I don't know anything about the sector. If they can get shit into space reliability and cheaper than anyone else what does that mean from a monetary standpoint? AI says the whole sector is $20 billion so ... unless it's expected to grow exponentially this valuation seems extraordinary.
Musk hype or something. I read something that if Elon left, the market cap for Tesla would plummet dramatically overnight.
A large portion of the valuation is future development of starship, and reducing the cost of access to space dramatically. It’s the perception that they will break into other industries beyond just the launch business and internet business.
What industries?
But Musk didn't start tesla? He bought in early and then sued the original owners for the right to call himself a founder...
Tesla had no product and sold zero cars when Elon bought in. Just sayin.
Shit the guy will I am from black eyed peas was an investor before Elon lol
No he wasn't, that's blatantly false. Elon joined/invested in Tesla in early 2004 (only two other people, no factories, no assets, no designs, didn't even have the rights to the name Tesla yet, basically only existed on paper) and Will I am invested in 2006.
They had a product, just an unfinished one, like most start ups. I'm not arguing that Musk didnt play a important role in Tesla, cuz he obviously did. It's just hysterical to think that he is the sole reason electrical cars exist today.
He got in early in what everyone else saw was the future, the difference being he had the funds to push out the original founders with their original idea.
Lolz, so true
Everything you said is true, but if it doubles or triples in price in the next 5 years, then what does it matter? No one is buying to hold anymore.
So the president of SpaceX (Gwynne Shotwell) has made it clear Elon is to be hands off. She is the one getting shit done.
Edit: Misspelled her first name.
Exactly, just like he's hands off at
TwitterX. Elon is well known for his self restraint.That's all fine until Elon demands she give him an IVF baby or lose her job.
Hands off but what about salutes?
If she gets shit done, why isn’t Elon already in Mars trying to grow potatoes using his own shit as fertilizer?
We need Matt for that
Because his timelines are often too ambitious and she has made that clear. She coined if I remember correctly Elon time. I believe she will get SpaceX to mars but I don’t think in the way Elon wants. It will still overall be a massive leap but the way the goal post get moved I’d expect equally outrageous claims from Elon when Gwynne and her team gets a starship to orbit.
What have they done to give you any inclination they will get you mars? Their starship program is a monumental embarrassing failure. Saturn V existed decades ago and flew 13 missions in its entirety. Starship has had 11 failures already. Hubris isn’t valuation.
Manned Space is different. I've worked in it for a decade. Your heavily-funded giants like Boeing and Lockheed have too much red tape to compete with agile companies like SpaceX or Blue Origin, and that only gets worse with time. This is similar to Ford or GM being way behind on the EV wave and basically giving up on making consumer cars at all.
In space if you want to do the really large projects you need 10s of billions of dollars and your ROI MIGHT be 10 years out. And unlike other industries it's not like you're generating huge revenue in those 10 years. It's just straight engineering development costs. You might be lucky to get a NASA contract but that generally is still less than your costs and ties you down in so many ways and demands even more resources to verify adherence to the contract and regular reporting.
Look at Axiom as an example. Tons of government funding, still was at risk of not being able to keep the lights on a few times now.
It's no coincidence that the only 2 companies on earth making headway in manned space are led by the 2 richest people on earth, ever. You're not going to raise enough funding telling investors you need a trillion dollars and 20 years. Oh, and you're going to blow up billions of dollars on and off the launch pad on the way.
One of the dumbest false equivalences on this sub.
Put the fries in the bag.
The Saturn V program had a total of 13 launches over including unmanned tests. During that time that vehicle sent 9 crews to the moon (including Apollo 8 successfully orbiting the moon on its 4th) and launched Skylab. Zero failures. The Saturn V program also pioneered “all up“ testing
SuperHeavy has had 11 launches and that vehicle has yet to achieve orbit and has suffered multiple catastrophic failures.
Something ain’t right at SpaceX
The Saturn V was not trying to land. As it turns out, reusability is complicated.
“Go fast and break stuff” can only take you so far in rocketry?
Eventually you have to reach the point of not breaking stuff anymore. In all seriousness BO got a ton of shit for being late, but they’re looking pretty good right now
Lol.. tell me you know nothing about aerospace without saying it.
They’re competing against nation states that would pay big money to not be dependent on the US and Elon for space tech. Elon himself is the opposite of a moat.
Palantir makes shit software and is overvalued, but they have a big moat having taken over gov contracts like crazy with Thiel probably pulling strings all over the place to get more gov $
At that valuation, this moat is not that reassuring.
They will have to hook the world on their internet because the demand for space launches for other reasons is much smaller.
Unless they kick the can until the demand for asteroid mining is significant.
What is the moat? Please tell me.
We have Blue Origin, 3 other Chinese companies. Do you believe in 10-20 years that the gap between spacex and these companies will widen or shorten? Does spacex have some super special patents that no other company can reproduce?
SpaceX doesn't patent things because patents require disclosing more details about them.
Regardless, whether the gap widens or shortens depends entirely on Starship.
If SpaceX ends up with the first fully-reusable rocket and figures out in-space refueling, the gap is going to get wider. If it fails, than the 10-ish year lead they have on everyone else in the industry will start to shrink, although SpaceX still has 10 years more experience refining their operations around reusability in order to increase launch cadence. Launching 150 times per year when the next closest competitor launches 5 times per year has to suggest some sort of moat.
Travel to where? There’s nowhere livable within reach.
Travel to where..
I don't invest in memes..... so..... neato
PLTR has a significantly larger MOAT than SpaceX. I don't think you understand enterprise contracts.
Everyone you capitalize moat I respect you less
How much money and how long do you think it would take a new company to design, build, and deliver rockets and a crew module to bring people to the ISS?
Well, let's just look at all the other examples of that being done. Oh wait, literally 0. Not for lack of want. Human space flight has been a goal forever. The moat has been too large for anyone else.
If you threw $50B and 10 years at what PLTR does, you could have a comparable product. Not so with Space X.
No one else can do what spacex has done. They’re a monopoly atm
Therefore it should be valued at $10T, not $800B.
Yea these people seriously have no clue. Blue origin is shooting for 400 satellites for 2026. Shooting for. Spacex has 9k in orbit right now.
Everyone said this about Tesla and then everyone else launched EVs and Waymo is ahead
Who the fuck said this about Tesla? Not anyone that was in the know. Tesla never had much of a lead, just good PR
SpaceX actually is very far ahead of the game, through verifiable data
Everyone said it about Tesla, and the market cap still prices in global dominance.
What about future projected revenue for the next X years where space logistics is a relevant industry?
SpaceX is the biggest customer to SpaceX
It’s why they’re profitable. The product they’re able to put into orbit, at cost, is earning them billions in revenue.
Oh yea, the robot armies on Mercury are going to make it worth 100 bazillion gazoogle dollars! I hear Musk talking about it, how it isn't small rocketry / space services company.... no no, IT IS THE FUTURE OF HUMANITY!! And that is worth literally all the money for all of time!!!!!! INVEST NOW! IT"S A STEAL AT THESE PRICES!! lol
‘Hi Elon, when will the armies on Mercury be ready?’ ‘Latest Q2 2026’
You mustn't have heard the part where they are planning to IPO at a 1.5 trillion valuation
How laughable is it that a company with a tenth of Meta's revenue wants to IPO at a valuation that is the same as Meta
Because valuation is more than revenue?
Tesla is extremely overvalued but SpaceX is worth a fuck ton simply because they are so far ahead of anybody when it comes to space, and space is a massively growing market.
People don't understand how prices fix in future potential.
Lol...pricing in future potential is one thing...maybe price in a couple of years of future growth...but at a 1.5 trillion valuation, you're basically pricing in 10 years or more of revenue growth
And you're not even considering the fact that once it IPOs, apes will bid up the stock because of the hype surrounding it and it will probably reach 3 trillion in market cap
So yea...3 trillion for a company with 15 billion in revenue...why don't you just say it should have a valuation more than NVDA then? Price in asteroid mining and Mars colonization as well then?
I mean average P/E in this inflated economy is already off the charts... And the whole reason they are doing a tiny 5% via IPO is because it brings in retail investors to massively pump the stock, allowing them to get much more for that 5% equity than if they did it privately.
But yeah, I think SpaceX could be worth more than Nvidia. I don't think people realize HOW big of a deal Starship is. They will be absolutely rolling in money
I don't think people realize how much of a game changer Starship will be. They'll be launching literally all day, every day. Elon claims 20 bucks per kg, which is stupid Elon hype, but if he gets it down to 200... Suddenly nearly EVERY data center is being built in space.
You're basically pricing in the potential that if they win, they become one of the biggest companies in the world.
I don't doubt any of the things you are saying with regards to SpaceX's potential...but my point is that if what SpaceX is doing is that important, and that there is money to be made, there will eventually be competitors
You think China is going to just sit idly by and let SpaceX dominate this realm?
Look at what happened with EVs just in the last decade and how Tesla is not the dominant force it once was...it basically has to rely on US protectionism against Chinese EVs to survive in its largest market
How far into this AI build out are we with NVDA and its chips being at the core of this technological revolution? It has only been around 3 years...give it another 7 years or so and just wait and see how NVDA's lead will have diminished because of China or some other development from a competitor
Same thing with what SpaceX is doing...doesn't matter how far ahead of the game they are...if what they are doing turns out to be vital to national interest or makes a shit ton of money, they will have competition that eventually erodes their market share...and it will most likely happen within a decade or less
So this whole thing of valuing SpaceX or any company at ridiculous levels by basically pricing in close to a decade of revenue growth is just stupid
$800b today, $400b last July and $1.5t in less than year.
Makes complete sense. Why wouldn’t their valuation 4x in ~12-18 months?
Just wait until they announce data centers in space
They already unofficially did. Musk said they were doing it on X. Dumb as hell idea but apparently space based data centers is the new CEO saying “AI” on an earnings call
Sometimes I wonder if I misunderstood something in my physics classes and that all those smart CEOs know something I don't.
Yup, lying can make you a crap load of money. The only reason you aren't rich is because you're not willing to be wildly unethical.
Finally a man after my own heart.
I definitely would be a lot wealthier if I decide to be an absolute son of a bitch.
We all would
i’m afraid we’ll all be broke because there’s a limit to the carrying capacity of any grift.
Yea exactly...just make shit up
It helps that Musk pioneered the EV landscape and with that one achievement, his fanboys will believe any thing he says
Why stop with data centers in space...he should claim Optimus will mine asteroids and colonize Mars...and then claim that future Teslas will have FSD capabilities to travel to charging outposts that Tesla built in space
Reality doesn't matter
The most surprising thing I think people are missing about these space based data centers being proposed is the sheer scale. What is being proposed would have dimensions measured in square kilometers, not square meters. The solar arrays and radiators will be absolutely ginormous. For context, the ISS is something like 110 meters in its longest dimension. Starcloud proposes an orbiting data center with a solar array/radiator that is 4km across.
I don't know the math or whether it means it will actually work, but assuming they've got a pumped coolant loop, that's a lot of surface area to spread heat over and radiate it.
There was an IEEE MICRO paper about it https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/10411363
The basic idea is that satellites are generating too much data to send back to earth, so a solution is to put a data center in space shared by multiple satellites where your bandwidth is much higher. The data center does the processing there before condensing it and sending useful info back to earth.
I think the problem is calling it data centres. On a smaller scale, this makes a lot of sense. But even then, it’s not communication satellites, but any satellite doing any science.
That has real value, but it’s never going to match a single data center, nor would we want it to.
Sundar started it. He said by 2030. It’s because you can put a lot of pv in space or something.
I think that’s exactly why they wanna IPO next year lol.
And they’re only issuing 2%, so people are gonna gobble that shit up.
Call me when they announce AI big titty goth pawg gfs
Dog there's a whole porn category you haven't clicked on yet. You might lose a couple days.
Good luck with cooling, lol
Has NVDA announced a collaboration with SpaceX yet?
rev of 4b... so maybe theyre going with a 200x rev valuation, lol.
So at even a really good 60% profit margin, the company should probably be valued at $100B… and that’s generous. Probably more like $50-60B
The IPOs of SpaceX, Anthropic, OpenAI in a short space of time is going to be an interesting time for the market. Is there that much money sitting on the sidelines or will it get reallocated from other stocks?
Only $30B is being sold of fresh stocks (although this number can go up or down) so I’d definitely think there’s plenty waiting on the sidelines. That said I think a lot of regular folks will prepare by selling other stocks to be ready to buy in. This may create some amazing temporary opportunities to buy into other companies.
that's the interesting thing, there IS lots of money on the sidelines. But from what I can tell, the money is on the sidelines to avoid how unstable the market is rn. And those are going to be very unstable stocks.
So where does that put RKLB in terms or its valuation now?
RKLB still undervalued
For one starlink makes up about 75% of SpaceX’s estimated revenue. Their launch business is a money sink where margins are on a race to the bottom. Starship is going to create a massive hole for the mid-size payload market demand because the HUNDREDS of Falcon 9 launches approved for next year or two will just be standing by. They already fill empty slots with starlink, which will largely move over to starship. Compare that to the… 3 neutrons that rklb will have by 2027. And if space data centers become a thing they definitely won’t be fitting on a neutron.
I’d say the current valuation is fair, based only on growing space systems demand
RKLB excel more in bespoke payloads. SpaceX essentially makes companies carpool their payloads whereas RKLB is equipped for bespoke launches where you can choose their schedule, orbit etc. without breaking the bank.
spacex also does bespoke flights, most people just don't want to build payloads that big. spacex not launching falcon heavy frequently is only because there's not enough demand for it
That’s exactly what I mean - unless you carpool you need to launch a heavy payload for it to make financial sense. IIRC Falcon 9 is a flat fee, not per kg.
Falcon is launched far more frequently than Electron.
Rocketlab struggling to build and compete against a rocket that's been reliably flying for over 10 years
Well so is every country and company on earth.
I value my ballsack at £900 billion. Projections are that it'll be worth £2 trillion by 2028. This game is pretty easy.
When is your Ballsacks IPO? Asking for a friend
Next month. I'll make sure I sell large chunks of stock to institutional friends cheap first before the public get a chance to buy though. Just because.
Are pre ipo share just precum ?
This is great if you work there, back when I interviewed with them the offers were heavy on equity. So no matter how it turns out at least the engineers just doubled their income for the past year.
Space X literally to the moon. (Somehow I will be a bagholder in 2-5 years)
Okay so is now finally the time to go short on tsla?
I've felt one of the things keeping TSLA afloat is that it's the sole avenue for exposure to the richest man on earth. An Elon-ETF, as it were.
The crown jewel of his empire is SpaceX.
If SpaceX goes public itself then people have no need to buy into a failing car company
When SpaceX goes public, it’ll give Musk’s family office more money to manipulate shares of TSLA. You gotta think big here.
Shhhh man. Do you give people the PIN code to your debit card too? Keep this thesis on the down low
Wrren't there talks about TSLA owners getting first access to IPO allocation for SpaceX?
It would surprise me if Elon didnt try something like that to pump TSLA via SpaceX
Any tsla short is, of course, still enormously risky.
I dumped $50k into this in 2020 and if they go IPO at $1.5T I’m looking at a 7 figure pay day after tax.
Jesus.
But I’ll be forced to hold for 6 months and I’ve got a feeling it will either double or drop by half by then lol.
How did you invest in this?
One of those platforms like Forge or Microventures that allow you to invest in pre-IPO companies.
Only available to accredited investors. But the truly wealthy have access to even better deals.
By the way, those platforms have sold each share several times over. They're going to be GIGAFUCKED when the IPO happens, because they're going to have to buy those shares at whatever price they can get in order to give liquidity to the "shareholders." That's in quotes, because the customers never actually owned shares, but rather an interest in the platform's shares. I recommend putting a good lawyer on speed dial, because there are going to be some interesting lawsuits.
Not sure about all platforms, but MV actually do acquire the actual shares through SPVs, and yes, those are SpaceX approved sales with signed stock transfer agreements.
There were cases where SPVs failed to acquire the shares (e.g seller failed to secure approval for sale) and the funds were returned to the customers. So they’ve been pretty transparent about it.
While SpaceX does have first right to refusal in terms of buying back shares, they don’t always do that due to a variety of reasons. That’s why a secondary market does exist, but it’s a very small and limited one for a company of such valuation.
In fact, platforms like MV are pretty much getting the scraps during a secondary sales, the big fishes buy millions at a time. An entire MV SPV is pretty much just one of the smaller buyers at a large secondary sale.
No idea how EquityZen or Forge operate exactly in case of SpaceX.
The shares that make it to SPVs are not approved by SpaceX because they have always been very protective of their cap table numbers. There is only one reason why SpaceX doesn't buy the shares in a ROFR deal, and that's if they are unrestricted and SpaceX has no say. Very few of these still exist. But people who insist on giving money to these charlatans cannot be reasoned with. Caveat emptor. It's your money to spend as you wish.
Well we’ll see on how it turns out. If it’s all a scam like you said (what you described is literally security fraud) then I expect these platforms all get sued into oblivions along with investment bankers that sourced larger deals to the order of tens of millions of dollars.
MV has been around for a long time and is a registered broker dealer that is overseen by the SEC and is part of FINRA and SIPC, so I doubt they’d scam people for relatively small amounts while risking the fate of the whole company.
What was possible was the smaller SPVs buying into bigger SPVs through indirect interests (and something SpaceX cannot block), but those interests have to be backed by actual shares and cannot be sold multiple times over, without committing explicit security fraud.
The Figma IPO chart says hi. Just kidding I think it's going to be massively successful for you and I'm jealous.
what are the criteria for being an accredited investor, and are there usually minimum required amounts in order to invest in private equity?
I set my own value at 100trillion.
Im worth it believe me.
I will give you quantum ai self driving spaceships by 2026. Or 2027. Or maybe 2028.
And will build a solar city on the moon.
Want to buy my flamethrower.
Did I talk to you about my ai sexbots? I will accept dogecoins as a form of payment.
I work like 26h/day and im the best in the world in a videogame.
Did I say 100trillions? Make it 150. Im that good. Trust me bruh
Post sexbots prospectus, plz.
Will bring you to heaven faster than my hyperloop brings you from gyna to my dads emerald mine
You can bet im dumb enough to buy in as soon as I can.
Some very grumpy downvoters.
You are dumb if u dont think spacex is mooning the first 2 weeks.
me too
A lot of people will
Same
Mee too
I’m literally banking on this news pushing Google upwards next week
Their stake will be worth $111B at a $1.5T valuation of SpaceX, which many rumors suggested.
Thats 90% of their earnings.
SATS owns $11.1B in shares of SpaceX, buy that
I have both. I’m praying for goog due to down on luck calls 😂
Why not $100Trillion?
All of Elon's companies are on a 200 year timeline between the underground loops, the self driving everything, the sex robots, the brain chips, and now the trips to mars via SpaceX. You are buying a company who will not return until your kids are raw dogging his Tesla robots.
Lol bro…
Rich employees
Current employee and have been there for 8 serving in both management and engineering, yesterday was a very good day 🤑🚀🌕
Lol. I'm not buying your Ferrari.
Worked there for a couple years and I’m so glad I was able to snag up some stock! They paid pretty poorly though, especially to live in Los Angeles.
Well I value my company at $801 Billion.
Why not 10 trillion? It’s all fake
I camped outside of Starbases platform for like a week on the beach. It’s fucking impressive I’ll be taking a position. They’re plan is to build off world data centers for AI
Forgot the /s
"AI data centers... but in space"
May actually be the preface of the next stock market mania.
Jesus fucking Cripes.
Can’t wait. I’m all in as soon as it’s available
Me.too
Buy SATS now to get a piece? They took an ownership stake a few months ago in exchange for spectrum licenses. Hence the +500% gain over the past 6 months.
I know there are a lot of haters on reddit, but a lot of people will all in on SpaceX during IPO.
What’s the real value ?
Total revenue FTY * 10 years.
$150B but there’s a lot of future earnings potential and a big moat currently.
What's a moat in this context?
barrier to entry of the industry. can’t just start building rockets in your garage with some crowdfunding
Lmao
Pussies, why not $8 trillion
Hahah aight..
Almost $100 billion per year they are currently behind the promised schedule - classic Elmo.
800il valuation. Zero mars / comet / planetary exploration
Lots of people talking about waiting for the IPO to invest: DXYZ is ~23% SpaceX. Also check out Micrventures, likely more expensive per SpaceX share in initial cost and fees, but you're not having to invest in other stuff.
Elon would be worth half a trillion 😳
I sure hope this is true. My husband works for SpaceX and was given stock when he was hired. 😭
I want to accumulate SpaceX rewards travel miles so that I can be in first class on the way to the moon. Free drinks and premium oxygen
800B?! They found aliens or something? 😎
Isn’t teslas absolutely ridiculous valuation based on the fact that maybe Elon will combine his companies? Because there is no fucking planet in this universe that teslas business alone will validate the stock price. If he starts taking his other companies public what does Tesla have? An electric car that’s worse than ask the competitors?