More interestingly, Oracle bonds are sinking fast. Don't have CDS chart on them, but their price sunk with elevated volume - meaning their credit risk spiked and holders are dumping.
It's getting corny at this point. When do these greedy fucks have enough? When we drag them to the guillotine because they bankrupted half the country with their greed?
Just look at what happened after the GFC in 2008, only one dude went to prison and all the bank execs laughed their asses off while getting hundreds of billions in exchange for their amazing work.
I'm willing to bet that the same banks that crashed the economy back then are now pumping billions into this AI crap that will never turn a profit.
Exactly. When I read through the comments on this subreddit and others that deal with stocks, you can immediately tell who lived through the 2008 crash and recession versus who started investing in the Covid era…
I don’t think anyone is worried about delays… they’re worried about how much debt Oracle is taking on for the frontside of this deal when OpenAI hasn’t really proven an ability to scale revenue to the point promised that Oracle will need to service all this debt.
I think it’s Oracle’s AI pricing model that is to blame.
In their AI world for agents even changes to a system prompt can constitute the agent being deemed as a “custom” agent and incur a significant cost. Their cost model is also based on compute clusters that aren’t understandable by the technically illiterate and common scenarios seem to be 10s of thousands per month for compute on top of a measly 200 million tokens per month before extra fees (on 5.1 mini).
In no world is that competitive with even Azure. They are cooked.
isn’t this like the second time some AI bubble hit piece pops up just for the company to dismiss it after in the same day, ex. Microsoft?
I don’t trust Oracle either, but they’re under the glass and vulnerable and people expect/want them to fail so the market can say the AI bubble popped.
Can we expect some more articles like this every other day that tanks the market , and repeat back up when companies put an official statement out lol
Or, hear me out, if the valuations are so fragile that a single news story tanks the entire market, maybe the growth narrative wasn’t that solid to begin with??
You got every company pumping their earnings, did you not see broadcom saying they will be printing bills by Q1? China bending over for some old ass gpus that people were implying were equal to a paperweight?
I get nervousness about how uh... "Effective" this whole AI thing might be, or rather how profitable... But demand is there, usage is there, and investment is still there
Oracle and OAI single handedly fucked up the short term by doing this uncalled sketchy shit
And btw, they are most definetly hit pieces to manipulate the market, if you cant see it its on you.
Are LLMs useful? Sure. Are they useful enough to justify spending the GDP of Denmark on data centers every year? I’m skeptical.
And yes a lot of these companies are showing surging revenue, but the margins are often terrible and it’s fueled by eye-watering debt levels. A lot of the excitement the last few quarters was about massive RPOs and people are starting to realize those are basically IOUs that may not be honored when it’s coming from start-ups with an insane burn rate
I’m willing to concede some of these stories may be BS, but there has also been a lot of lying and shadiness coming from these companies for years, and frankly the accounting numbers some provide don’t add up, so if you take what oracle and OpenAI say at face value I’d say you’re just as naive
Edit: Also keep in mind that if oracle could prove them wrong and that the article was willfully misleading they’d sue the pants off them. We shouldn’t just assume “oh well the company denied it, case closed.” Theranos denied all the “hit pieces” from the WSJ before they collapsed, too…
Not sure why random comparison with Denmark, is there some tech revolution coming from that country we haven’t heard of? Why not comparing to Bermuda or Luxembourg? What are those terrible margins? Do retailers have better margins? And why Costco’s PE is higher than Oracle’s? Is that justified by Costco’s superior margins or surging revenue or else? AVGO just dropped an incredible ER and it tanked 16% from the last night’s top, was it due to contracting margin? And what the contraction was exactly?
All this fearmongering doesn’t have substance because people jump on the hating bandwagon and prefer not to read and compare the numbers. And if you’re so sure, tell me about dot com vs current PEs and margins.
Probably not worth responding to this based on your tone, but here we go:
- Denmark's GDP is around $400 billion, which is almost the same as was spent on data centers in the US this year. The comparison was to put perspective around just how enormous the CapEx is when it matches that of a wealthy OECD country
- Yes, the margins are terrible! This summer Oracle revealed it was making like 14% on its AI data center business (way below its older cloud business). That's on par with retail and other low margin businesses that don't require enormous CapEx. CoreWeave is massively underwater. Reporting by the Financial Times and others suggests OpenAI and Anthropic are hemorrhaging far more money than previously thought (which fits with their increasingly frequent fundraising and floating rumors of IPOs in 2026)
- Yes, AVGO's CEO made comments about margin compression in the earnings call, which freaked out investors. A lot of yesterday's pullback was also due to the worries about possible delays with Oracle's data centers (which also tanked CoreWeave after their Q3 report)
- It's funny to see AI bulls bring up P/E as a defense because they normally hand-wave away any concerns about the truly absurd P/Es of AI companies like Palantir or pre-revenue nuclear companies like OKLO that are hyped as a solution to the power crunch these AI companies face
- Ultimately, you don't have to take my word for it, I'm just some random guy on the internet. Maybe I'm wrong! But I'm not the only one with these concerns. In fact, the bond markets are also getting freaked out, and credit default swap (CDS) spreads for CoreWeave, Oracle, and others in the space are soaring, implying a rising concern about default on their debts
I think OpenAI will be the ones to go first. They lost $12 billion last quarter and they are losing subscribers, because Gemini 3 and Claude are better. That could spook the investors enough that they can no longer finance their massive losses - I mean there is a limited amount of venture capital available
Agreed, OpenAI is clearly one of the weak points in a very interconnected ecosystem. A lot of the RPOs getting everyone jazzed at earnings are basically just IOUs from openAI, and bigger companies are making huge CapEx investments assuming those will be honored through the 2030s. VC capital is indeed drying up, and the small and medium sized labs and neoclouds are turning to private credit debt, while even the hyper scalers are issuing bonds. It’s a house of cards that requires flawless execution or it all collapses
At orcl's current PE the market seem to be discounting all future cash flow from openai. So, it seems that the news of delay in data center buildup and subsequent decline in stock price is indicating growing risk of orcl going bankrupt if openai defaults. In other words, orcl wont be able to sell excess capacity or even if they do, it will be pennies for a dollar that is currently expected.
Do you concur? Their cloud revenue is growing 34% a year, higher than aws and perhaps even gcp.
Their cloud infra revenue is up 66% and gpu related revenue up 177%.
The demand for gpu and capacity is insatiable. But the market is speculating its transitory
Problem is when you boil it down the actual end product is AI, which while genuinely useful, isnt generating nearly enough revenue to justify the eye watering costs. The idea that it will recoup even a fraction of the expenditure is pure speculation.
Then there's the fact that AI WILL likely increase in value and usefulness, but that's not going to come from more training, it will come from how it's applied and integrated. Like for all intents and purposes LLMs are probably already about 95% as good as they will ever be, they're spending billions to make it 96% as good. That extra 1% is not going to cause a sudden increase in revenue.
They're selling shovels in a gold rush where everyone already has five and none of them dig any deeper.
Yeah that assessment seems pretty accurate. The demand right now is huge, but it’s coming from unprofitable LLM labs. If they can figure out a way to dramatically reduce burn rate it might all work out, but so far they are dependent on VC capital and debt and seem like they’re in a precarious position financially. If one or more of the model companies goes under, a lot of the demand for compute vaporizes overnight
Data center, gpus, electricity... these are all finite and constant. To meet the demands of the customers of a model company going under other model companies will need compute capacity, which is already there but the question is at what price and how soon? Ellison is saying 2 days but if openai goes under, this will be like 2008, the money flow will simply stop.
I still disagree with Denmark comparison, is it some tech advanced nation building our future? Maybe we all should move there? Why not comparing to individuals’ net worth “can you imagine annual data center spend in the US just passed Musk’s net worth”? It’s meaningless is what I’m saying.
14% margin is not terrible, it’s after subtracting massive capex, right? So all it proves is that this field is profitable. And what is Oracle’s net margin and its dynamic, it’s pretty good isn’t it? On par with retail and other low margin businesses? Are you saying that Costco’s under 3% net margin is low, yet Oracle’s 30% net margin is terrible? Yet, Costco’s PE is 25% worse than Oracle’s, and nobody is yelling about Costco’s market cap, it’s Oracle that is still overpriced at the levels of November last year before any RPO announcement, right? Oracle isn’t pure AI business, it is becoming a classic CSP vendor, their buildout isn’t specifically for Openai, their plan is stay competitive and take market share of AWS, GCP, Azure.
Anthropic and Openai are startups, they need to work their way up to attract customers, diversify into more products and increase revenue, and that should be their investors’ concern, definitely not Oracle’s, because if one such startup goes under, the other companies will fill up the capacity, compute consumption is always increasing. Remember people on here were dooming Reddit at the time of IPO, as if it makes no money and will go bankrupt? Look at where it stands now, and it’s not diversified at all.
You seem to be focused only on a few companies which get a lot of negative manipulative feedback on the internet, while mentioned “a lot of companies with terrible margins”, maybe try doing the actual research and apply common sense with your own (not manipulatively induced) opinion? There are public companies and startups incorporating and/or offering AI solutions, which translates to either higher profit or competitiveness. Nobody wants to go out of business by missing out on investing into the future.
AVGO CEO did mention margin contraction, but my question is given that ER and guidance significantly exceeded highest expectations and what exact margin contraction? like from gross 78% to 77%? Is that enough for a daily drop of 16%??? And it has nothing to do with Oracle as by the time of the bloomberg announcement, AVGO already nosedove.
Not sure what AI bulls are doing, I’m not following them. I’m just a common sense investor and go long on the companies I personally like or sit out with cash, and those I don’t like - I just avoid as you never know what next turn manipulation would make.
Oracle’s debt hasn’t peaked in terms of historical debt/asset ratio and given that revenue and net income shows positive dynamic, I tend to believe the bond market and narrative around the company is a manipulation tactic by institutioms, while unsure the ultimate strategy - maybe increase volatility and trading activity across all equities to pocket huge commissions?
Companies aint suing people left and right, and much less journalist because they could get in trouble rather quickly. Not worth unless ur the mafia or it gets absurd.
Data center spending can get worse, or it can get a lot better considering how efficient the models are getting. Also, companies like NBIS aim for 20% ebit (after amortization) margins. The shittier players like coreweave or some smaller crypto miners might be riding a wave or act as a proxy for debt, but the business model is there.
And yea, agree, shadiness is there, but realize who is beimg shady (oracle, which is their motto, and dogshit companies)
Also could understand some nervousness about nvidias reporting, as it seems way too good
Definitely agree that the performance differs a lot by company. CoreWeave is a hot mess, I've made good money with puts. Less familiar with NBIS and IREN but I'll take your word for it.
At the end of the day, it doesn't matter what you or I think the valuation should be, Mr. Market writ large will decide. And at least in the bond and CDS markets, they seem very skeptical of Oracle and CRWV surviving, let alone thriving. How the others fare, uncertain, though I think all the major hyperscalers will weather the storm (albeit with maybe a temporary hit to their stock prices)
Oracle traded in a fairly narrow range between high $30s to $60 from 2010 to 2020 before rocketing up to the chatGPT era up to a peak in the $320 range this September like a meme stock after the OpenAI deal was announced. The current valuation is absolutely contingent on it becoming a major AI infrastructure company
35 P/E for a major tech / AI company. If growth was priced in it'd be 350 P/E. P/E is forward looking and it's currently lower than Starbucks.
Just because it used to trade for $30 is meaningless. Their earnings went up in multiples, which drove the value of the company up. A PE ratio of 35 indicates investors expect profits to stay stable but not grow much.
Bloomberg has a habit of telling lies to tank a stock, but Oracle has a history of lying too. So we have 2 liars in a room, I say they both send their CEOs to the cage for a death match.
The doom in this thread is crazy. Media sways sentiment so easily. AI computing demand is real and exploding at an astronomical pace. In growing in healthcare (AI triage, medical imaging, genomic sequencing, etc.), finance (fraud detection, risk modeling, etc.), software, manufacturing, media, ads, literally everywhere. It’s replacing labor and enhancing productivity. Companies aren’t spending cause it’s worthless, they are spending because they see the current and future value. There is no other way to keep up with the demand then use debt to finance it. Don’t sleep on AI, if you missed the trade I’m sorry, that really sucks it was once in a lifetime, but the trend is strong and with full government support and QE and more rate cuts, it’s only gonna advance faster and faster. Being a bear never got anyone anywhere.
Problem is much of the demand is driven by training and AI isn't going to suddenly increase in value with more training. Eeking out improvements is exponentially more expensive and these companies are betting on AI companies persuing that when the reality is it's already as good as it needs to be and value is going to come from application, not more training
Electrical engineer here. So even if they complete data centers, there is no electricity for thise data centers. Meaning, data centers will be useless until new power plants are built. To build new power plants will take 5-10 years....those guys are cooked cause they have zero idea of they are doing.
Join WSB Discord
“Altman called and he said he’s totally good for the half a trilli he promised. He was literally on his way to the ATM.”
Trilli secured.
I saw San Altman's wallet, he did have a trillion in there
This checks out.
“He actually said he would throw in another half trilli just cause he’s good for it. Nothing to worry about”
https://preview.redd.it/bb8scs1u8v6g1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=42f6d2ecc465ee9588a58bb80b771b71b54034c1
I'm going to intercept him on the way.
Just put some twinks outside the atm
Lock and loaded
Are Snap benefits an acceptable form of payment? - Sam
Funding secured
More interestingly, Oracle bonds are sinking fast. Don't have CDS chart on them, but their price sunk with elevated volume - meaning their credit risk spiked and holders are dumping.
https://preview.redd.it/4x21dcb81u6g1.png?width=3388&format=png&auto=webp&s=197fafda6b19da08923225125ad4708f32628063
It’s the same as Coreweave, they ain’t paying shit back 😂
Debtweave!
Ellison can’t pay coupons because he’s funding his son’s bid for Warner Bros.
How is Amazon bond raise for reference?
Picked one with roughly the same maturity. Trades as boringly as a bond should.
https://preview.redd.it/sfgu8dkt3u6g1.png?width=3440&format=png&auto=webp&s=119d514c906c673ab9f44028ad5fb8f7901ea340
Where can you get these charts?
Screenshots are from IBKR TWS. Found it in TradingView too. Basically, google this like "ORCL bonds tradingview" and it shows up on the first line.
Here are all bonds for ORCL:
https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYSE-ORCL/bonds/
And META:
https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NASDAQ-META/bonds/
Sort by trading volume to see what is the most active one.
https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/FINRA-ORCL6186140/
https://preview.redd.it/cow2el0xyu6g1.png?width=3232&format=png&auto=webp&s=e1c3411dfbd464fd012fa75823c90a61f3960068
Wow did not know there were individual company bonds?!?! Damn I know nothing about money. Who buys these bonds?
Pensions
Interesting, thanks 👍
Banks know how much they're issuing and don't necessarily have faith in them
Oracle saying "no delays" is like your dealer saying the product is "almost ready" - translation: we're fucked
"I'll be there in two hours"
Traduction: "I'm not even in the country"
“I’m just turning the corner”
Which one?!
Fr*nc spotted.
Can't trust anything that comes out of their mouths
Professional liars
keeps the monopoly game going, innit? - larry lol
Bloomberg? Yes.
SOURCES SAY
GET FUCKED
If this was true, then Bloomberg would have had to retract their story.
https://preview.redd.it/ju55ex711u6g1.png?width=320&format=png&auto=webp&s=cf21a46b78d00a6f2e7172bd8cca0445c4701fc3
Me at this very moment
We did not own the chuds sir.
Crazy how much FUD is being thrown around.
It's getting corny at this point. When do these greedy fucks have enough? When we drag them to the guillotine because they bankrupted half the country with their greed?
Just look at what happened after the GFC in 2008, only one dude went to prison and all the bank execs laughed their asses off while getting hundreds of billions in exchange for their amazing work.
I'm willing to bet that the same banks that crashed the economy back then are now pumping billions into this AI crap that will never turn a profit.
trump should offer pardons on subscription
PAAS
Pardons as a service
Crime is still illegal but for a small fine in relationship with your net worth your problem is solved.
I’m convinced the wealthy perceive us the way we perceive the grass
Exactly. When I read through the comments on this subreddit and others that deal with stocks, you can immediately tell who lived through the 2008 crash and recession versus who started investing in the Covid era…
i think Netflix is behind this. Larry's son cant bought warner bros is daddy is broke from oracle stock collapsing
Lol. We need a new system
You first
Its all on you guys. My DD was as simple as checking out how Ellison looks and that’s all I needed to see for not to trust this man or his company
Solid DD
I don’t think anyone is worried about delays… they’re worried about how much debt Oracle is taking on for the frontside of this deal when OpenAI hasn’t really proven an ability to scale revenue to the point promised that Oracle will need to service all this debt.
How much of this is related to Google Gemini coming on strong lately making OpenAI success less likely?
considering google is falling as well, I'm guessing this is not related to that though it may be exacerbating the down slide
Google has been gaining ground lately but OpenAI is still in the lead.
https://open.substack.com/pub/nextword/p/openai-cant-beat-google-in-consumer
I think it’s Oracle’s AI pricing model that is to blame.
In their AI world for agents even changes to a system prompt can constitute the agent being deemed as a “custom” agent and incur a significant cost. Their cost model is also based on compute clusters that aren’t understandable by the technically illiterate and common scenarios seem to be 10s of thousands per month for compute on top of a measly 200 million tokens per month before extra fees (on 5.1 mini).
In no world is that competitive with even Azure. They are cooked.
isn’t this like the second time some AI bubble hit piece pops up just for the company to dismiss it after in the same day, ex. Microsoft?
I don’t trust Oracle either, but they’re under the glass and vulnerable and people expect/want them to fail so the market can say the AI bubble popped.
Can we expect some more articles like this every other day that tanks the market , and repeat back up when companies put an official statement out lol
Or, hear me out, if the valuations are so fragile that a single news story tanks the entire market, maybe the growth narrative wasn’t that solid to begin with??
You got every company pumping their earnings, did you not see broadcom saying they will be printing bills by Q1? China bending over for some old ass gpus that people were implying were equal to a paperweight?
I get nervousness about how uh... "Effective" this whole AI thing might be, or rather how profitable... But demand is there, usage is there, and investment is still there
Oracle and OAI single handedly fucked up the short term by doing this uncalled sketchy shit
And btw, they are most definetly hit pieces to manipulate the market, if you cant see it its on you.
Are LLMs useful? Sure. Are they useful enough to justify spending the GDP of Denmark on data centers every year? I’m skeptical.
And yes a lot of these companies are showing surging revenue, but the margins are often terrible and it’s fueled by eye-watering debt levels. A lot of the excitement the last few quarters was about massive RPOs and people are starting to realize those are basically IOUs that may not be honored when it’s coming from start-ups with an insane burn rate
I’m willing to concede some of these stories may be BS, but there has also been a lot of lying and shadiness coming from these companies for years, and frankly the accounting numbers some provide don’t add up, so if you take what oracle and OpenAI say at face value I’d say you’re just as naive
Edit: Also keep in mind that if oracle could prove them wrong and that the article was willfully misleading they’d sue the pants off them. We shouldn’t just assume “oh well the company denied it, case closed.” Theranos denied all the “hit pieces” from the WSJ before they collapsed, too…
Not sure why random comparison with Denmark, is there some tech revolution coming from that country we haven’t heard of? Why not comparing to Bermuda or Luxembourg? What are those terrible margins? Do retailers have better margins? And why Costco’s PE is higher than Oracle’s? Is that justified by Costco’s superior margins or surging revenue or else? AVGO just dropped an incredible ER and it tanked 16% from the last night’s top, was it due to contracting margin? And what the contraction was exactly?
All this fearmongering doesn’t have substance because people jump on the hating bandwagon and prefer not to read and compare the numbers. And if you’re so sure, tell me about dot com vs current PEs and margins.
Probably not worth responding to this based on your tone, but here we go:
- Denmark's GDP is around $400 billion, which is almost the same as was spent on data centers in the US this year. The comparison was to put perspective around just how enormous the CapEx is when it matches that of a wealthy OECD country
- Yes, the margins are terrible! This summer Oracle revealed it was making like 14% on its AI data center business (way below its older cloud business). That's on par with retail and other low margin businesses that don't require enormous CapEx. CoreWeave is massively underwater. Reporting by the Financial Times and others suggests OpenAI and Anthropic are hemorrhaging far more money than previously thought (which fits with their increasingly frequent fundraising and floating rumors of IPOs in 2026)
- Yes, AVGO's CEO made comments about margin compression in the earnings call, which freaked out investors. A lot of yesterday's pullback was also due to the worries about possible delays with Oracle's data centers (which also tanked CoreWeave after their Q3 report)
- It's funny to see AI bulls bring up P/E as a defense because they normally hand-wave away any concerns about the truly absurd P/Es of AI companies like Palantir or pre-revenue nuclear companies like OKLO that are hyped as a solution to the power crunch these AI companies face
- Ultimately, you don't have to take my word for it, I'm just some random guy on the internet. Maybe I'm wrong! But I'm not the only one with these concerns. In fact, the bond markets are also getting freaked out, and credit default swap (CDS) spreads for CoreWeave, Oracle, and others in the space are soaring, implying a rising concern about default on their debts
I think OpenAI will be the ones to go first. They lost $12 billion last quarter and they are losing subscribers, because Gemini 3 and Claude are better. That could spook the investors enough that they can no longer finance their massive losses - I mean there is a limited amount of venture capital available
Agreed, OpenAI is clearly one of the weak points in a very interconnected ecosystem. A lot of the RPOs getting everyone jazzed at earnings are basically just IOUs from openAI, and bigger companies are making huge CapEx investments assuming those will be honored through the 2030s. VC capital is indeed drying up, and the small and medium sized labs and neoclouds are turning to private credit debt, while even the hyper scalers are issuing bonds. It’s a house of cards that requires flawless execution or it all collapses
At orcl's current PE the market seem to be discounting all future cash flow from openai. So, it seems that the news of delay in data center buildup and subsequent decline in stock price is indicating growing risk of orcl going bankrupt if openai defaults. In other words, orcl wont be able to sell excess capacity or even if they do, it will be pennies for a dollar that is currently expected.
Do you concur? Their cloud revenue is growing 34% a year, higher than aws and perhaps even gcp.
Their cloud infra revenue is up 66% and gpu related revenue up 177%.
The demand for gpu and capacity is insatiable. But the market is speculating its transitory
Problem is when you boil it down the actual end product is AI, which while genuinely useful, isnt generating nearly enough revenue to justify the eye watering costs. The idea that it will recoup even a fraction of the expenditure is pure speculation.
Then there's the fact that AI WILL likely increase in value and usefulness, but that's not going to come from more training, it will come from how it's applied and integrated. Like for all intents and purposes LLMs are probably already about 95% as good as they will ever be, they're spending billions to make it 96% as good. That extra 1% is not going to cause a sudden increase in revenue.
They're selling shovels in a gold rush where everyone already has five and none of them dig any deeper.
Yeah that assessment seems pretty accurate. The demand right now is huge, but it’s coming from unprofitable LLM labs. If they can figure out a way to dramatically reduce burn rate it might all work out, but so far they are dependent on VC capital and debt and seem like they’re in a precarious position financially. If one or more of the model companies goes under, a lot of the demand for compute vaporizes overnight
A lot of the demand... vaporizes... does it?
Data center, gpus, electricity... these are all finite and constant. To meet the demands of the customers of a model company going under other model companies will need compute capacity, which is already there but the question is at what price and how soon? Ellison is saying 2 days but if openai goes under, this will be like 2008, the money flow will simply stop.
I still disagree with Denmark comparison, is it some tech advanced nation building our future? Maybe we all should move there? Why not comparing to individuals’ net worth “can you imagine annual data center spend in the US just passed Musk’s net worth”? It’s meaningless is what I’m saying.
14% margin is not terrible, it’s after subtracting massive capex, right? So all it proves is that this field is profitable. And what is Oracle’s net margin and its dynamic, it’s pretty good isn’t it? On par with retail and other low margin businesses? Are you saying that Costco’s under 3% net margin is low, yet Oracle’s 30% net margin is terrible? Yet, Costco’s PE is 25% worse than Oracle’s, and nobody is yelling about Costco’s market cap, it’s Oracle that is still overpriced at the levels of November last year before any RPO announcement, right? Oracle isn’t pure AI business, it is becoming a classic CSP vendor, their buildout isn’t specifically for Openai, their plan is stay competitive and take market share of AWS, GCP, Azure. Anthropic and Openai are startups, they need to work their way up to attract customers, diversify into more products and increase revenue, and that should be their investors’ concern, definitely not Oracle’s, because if one such startup goes under, the other companies will fill up the capacity, compute consumption is always increasing. Remember people on here were dooming Reddit at the time of IPO, as if it makes no money and will go bankrupt? Look at where it stands now, and it’s not diversified at all.
You seem to be focused only on a few companies which get a lot of negative manipulative feedback on the internet, while mentioned “a lot of companies with terrible margins”, maybe try doing the actual research and apply common sense with your own (not manipulatively induced) opinion? There are public companies and startups incorporating and/or offering AI solutions, which translates to either higher profit or competitiveness. Nobody wants to go out of business by missing out on investing into the future.
AVGO CEO did mention margin contraction, but my question is given that ER and guidance significantly exceeded highest expectations and what exact margin contraction? like from gross 78% to 77%? Is that enough for a daily drop of 16%??? And it has nothing to do with Oracle as by the time of the bloomberg announcement, AVGO already nosedove.
Not sure what AI bulls are doing, I’m not following them. I’m just a common sense investor and go long on the companies I personally like or sit out with cash, and those I don’t like - I just avoid as you never know what next turn manipulation would make.
Oracle’s debt hasn’t peaked in terms of historical debt/asset ratio and given that revenue and net income shows positive dynamic, I tend to believe the bond market and narrative around the company is a manipulation tactic by institutioms, while unsure the ultimate strategy - maybe increase volatility and trading activity across all equities to pocket huge commissions?
Companies aint suing people left and right, and much less journalist because they could get in trouble rather quickly. Not worth unless ur the mafia or it gets absurd.
Data center spending can get worse, or it can get a lot better considering how efficient the models are getting. Also, companies like NBIS aim for 20% ebit (after amortization) margins. The shittier players like coreweave or some smaller crypto miners might be riding a wave or act as a proxy for debt, but the business model is there.
And yea, agree, shadiness is there, but realize who is beimg shady (oracle, which is their motto, and dogshit companies) Also could understand some nervousness about nvidias reporting, as it seems way too good
Definitely agree that the performance differs a lot by company. CoreWeave is a hot mess, I've made good money with puts. Less familiar with NBIS and IREN but I'll take your word for it.
At the end of the day, it doesn't matter what you or I think the valuation should be, Mr. Market writ large will decide. And at least in the bond and CDS markets, they seem very skeptical of Oracle and CRWV surviving, let alone thriving. How the others fare, uncertain, though I think all the major hyperscalers will weather the storm (albeit with maybe a temporary hit to their stock prices)
Another idiot who doesn’t know anything🤣
Oracle is trading at 35 P/E ratio. The valuation isn't built on a fragile growth narrative.
AI swings both ways on good or bad news grabbing the headlines, regardless of valuations.
Oracle traded in a fairly narrow range between high $30s to $60 from 2010 to 2020 before rocketing up to the chatGPT era up to a peak in the $320 range this September like a meme stock after the OpenAI deal was announced. The current valuation is absolutely contingent on it becoming a major AI infrastructure company
35 P/E for a major tech / AI company. If growth was priced in it'd be 350 P/E. P/E is forward looking and it's currently lower than Starbucks.
Just because it used to trade for $30 is meaningless. Their earnings went up in multiples, which drove the value of the company up. A PE ratio of 35 indicates investors expect profits to stay stable but not grow much.
Jesus. And now that this is out nothing is even recovering. NVDA has been so unbelievably beat down
Fuck you Larry Ellison. I'd rather trust a wsb random degenerate than anything you say.
These fake new outlets need to be held accountable
Bloomberg has a habit of telling lies to tank a stock, but Oracle has a history of lying too. So we have 2 liars in a room, I say they both send their CEOs to the cage for a death match.
The doom in this thread is crazy. Media sways sentiment so easily. AI computing demand is real and exploding at an astronomical pace. In growing in healthcare (AI triage, medical imaging, genomic sequencing, etc.), finance (fraud detection, risk modeling, etc.), software, manufacturing, media, ads, literally everywhere. It’s replacing labor and enhancing productivity. Companies aren’t spending cause it’s worthless, they are spending because they see the current and future value. There is no other way to keep up with the demand then use debt to finance it. Don’t sleep on AI, if you missed the trade I’m sorry, that really sucks it was once in a lifetime, but the trend is strong and with full government support and QE and more rate cuts, it’s only gonna advance faster and faster. Being a bear never got anyone anywhere.
Problem is much of the demand is driven by training and AI isn't going to suddenly increase in value with more training. Eeking out improvements is exponentially more expensive and these companies are betting on AI companies persuing that when the reality is it's already as good as it needs to be and value is going to come from application, not more training
Boys top is in, reminds of 2008 “markets are strong”
Oracle stole our Christmas. Lets short those fucks. Down with the Grinch.
Oracle is fucked
Electrical engineer here. So even if they complete data centers, there is no electricity for thise data centers. Meaning, data centers will be useless until new power plants are built. To build new power plants will take 5-10 years....those guys are cooked cause they have zero idea of they are doing.
sure thing bud
Bloomberg is a tabloid.
Doubt [X]
Why does the oracle CEO look like Michael Jackson after all his surgeries?
https://preview.redd.it/5mtxu63qcw6g1.jpeg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b632c02e79548c0a574082f6d4420ea025dec717