the hidden plan is to completely destroy the US dollar and federal budget and destroy our entire economic system so it can be replaced with something new and a zero debt.
Yikes, almost got swept into the RPO hype, assuming that a company as large as Oracle knows what it’s getting into. Apparently they’re just as regarded.
Yet every other company is being run by the poors, builds business around donating to the society, never involved with the government/lobbying, licks every customer’s ass
I have never once in my life heard anything positive about the company. Like you hear a bunch of stories about Amazon's toxic workplace but apparently Oracle makes it look like valve
"ChatGPT, understand all of my database schemas and write a program that will migrate everything to Postgres. Then run it and check the migrated db for errors. Finally, flip off Larry before shutting down."
These are the companies contributing to Nvidia's sold out inventory. They're all hoping they'll make their funds back by being the next runpod.
If every company was so compute starved and there was "record demand" then the secondary market would be booming.
Instead it's looking like total oversupply. These companies are literally renting these GPUs for BELOW breakeven rates (not even factoring in electricity)
It's an overbuilt bubble.
Fun fact during the Dotcom overbuild while cisco contributed some of the excess inventory the primary driver of the bubble was actually Cisco's customers racing to lay fiber and deploy routers/switches.
I think you could also argue the big hyperscalers are price competing to get clients using their higher margin services and to keep the neoclouds from gaining market share.
Hyperscalers haven't dropped their price to this extent but they have other business lines that contribute to their bottom line - Amazon has other cloud services and we'll Amazon. Meta is advertising, Google is well everything else. They don't need to drop their margins and frankly all their lines of business muddy the waters on how much compute demand their is vs. their legacy tech business.
The drop in price is coming from the other players who contributed to Nvidia's sold out quarters. Pure AI inference and training plays. But the reason I track these is it gives good insight on outside demand from the circular AI industry and it's pointing to a ghost town in terms of usage.
I think it’s an overbuilt bubble but the data is misleading. Older GPUs, H100/A100, will rent out cheaper over time as newer units, H200/Blackwell, are put into service. You need to compare msrp against rental rates at release for each unit and use that ratio to compare. There are more factors at play but that at least compares apples to apples.
The “compare launch MSRP vs launch rental rate” lens is useful, but it’s only part of the story.
I'm looking at today’s economics. I.e. what people actually paid for H100/A100 hardware vs what they can rent it out for now . See my other comments where I did the math using today's rates.
If older GPUs naturally drift cheaper as H200/Blackwell arrive that’s fine ONLY if the owner has largely paid down the original capex. The problem is a lot of this gear was bought in the last 1-3 years at peak pricing during the VC spending spree via these providers.
When rental rates get pushed down toward or below full cycle breakeven while the loans are still outstanding, the age doesn’t save you. it just means you’re servicing yesterday’s gear / capex with today’s compressed cash.
In that sense falling H100/A100 rental prices are a red flag. They show current supply/demand and ROI pressure on recent purchases, not just a normal generational price.
And it’s not like most of this gear was bought for cash. Look at the public disclosures from the AI infra players we CAN see. CoreWeave has raised well over $10B in secured debt facilities for GPUs and data centers, and Oracle AI build out is explicitly tied to a debt load north of $100B.
That’s before even getting into Nvidia‑linked financing and co‑signed deals. This isn’t a clean, pay as you go upgrade cycle. It's a lot of leverage that only works if rental economics hold up...which right now they don't seem to be at all. It looks more like scalp demand padding Nvidia’s books than durable, self funding infrastructure...and that can only run so long before the financing and ROI math collide and investors get wise to all of this.
Bang, you 're on the right track. As a customer in the gpu cloud rental market and neoclouds the prices have to go down. $2/gpu per hour to run training is one time capex but you better have product market fit or it's a huge waste of cash.
AI inference is worse, 50% of inference compute is wasted effort, as it's needed for filtering data to an actual customer's needs, or customers not knowing what they need (how many times have you asked the same question, rephased in chatgpt to get 'the right answer"? $1/hr inference is way too expensive and firms like OpenAI/Claude/MCPs going with tokens helps but needs another 50% cut for them to be profitable. Hyperscalers over-charging (double) & making money hand over fist and no one realizes it's a cheat, yet.
Yeah I used to do cloud training before I got my own rig. It's crazy how expensive it still all is even knowing the guys outside mag 7 are below water.
Paying hourly for a bad training run or a bunch of hallucinated inference doesn't scale at all.
It's not asking the wrong question though, it's that it gives a shitty or wrong answer and it has to be told 5 times it's wrong to maybe give you something better that it tunnels a pattern on.
I worked for Nortel during the dotcom boom, they were swimming in money, stock parabolic. The rugpull happened within a couple of months, 50,000 laid off, properties auctioned off. We were installing terabit fiber networks across state lines as fast as they could get us on the next flight.
My hot take is that demand is coming from the business and enterprise world, and they mostly use models from Openai/Google/Anthropic. Those models aren't served on GPUs from third parties due to the need for keeping the models from leaking out and alao because of compliance reasons. Also chinese models are a big no in enterprise.
The consumer market is served by ChatGPT and Gemini.
There are just very few good reasons to run open weights on rented GPUs in the cloud right now.
Why would a US enterprise trust OpenAI or Google models more than one from China or some open source model from Baruvia (especially if it's cheap)? What could go wrong? What guarantees and safeguards are OpenAI and Google making to their users? Can users verify those guarantees?
Contracts. It's easy for an US company to sue another US company, difficult if not impossible to do it with a Chinese one.
Open source means there is no one to sue.
Also is worth noting, companies rarely cares about data themselves. They just want to be protected if their clients sue them. It's just a big chain, where they can shift blame and responsibilities
The math is all there. Also you can use other trackers to see what the hourly rate is. For example alot of places are doing the h100 for 1.50 it's absurd.
The report highlights that NVIDIA’s A100 GPU, priced at approximately $199,000 at its 2020 debut, would require around $4 per hour in utilization over a five-year lifespan to break even. Average rental rates were about $2.40 per hour at the time, declining to roughly $1.65 today.
Remember as well these companies have bought these units via financing. Meaning they also have interest rates to pay on all the loans.
This whole thing is pointing to an underutilization and oversupply because if the demand was there they wouldn't be dropping their pants on the pricing to this extent.
You're also bringing up hyperscalers. This is a tangential market.
But we can infer global demand by looking at the gou rental space only because if I'm a fortune 500 and needing GPUs which are sold out everywhere then this is a good portion of the market I'd be looking to fill the compute need.
Just a small note the 200k is for the dgx... The GPU was 10- 15k which probably boils down to like 50c an hour once u add some server cost?
From Google search:
AI Overview
NVIDIA A100 PCIe 80 GB Specs | TechPowerUp GPU Database
When NVIDIA launched the A100 in May 2020, it was positioned as a high-end AI accelerator, with systems like the DGX A100 costing around $200,000, while individual GPU modules (40GB/80GB) had street prices starting from roughly $10,000-$15,000, depending on the reseller and variant (PCIe vs. SXM),
I left another comment doing the math on h100s but the same is true for a100s. Remember there is nuance since we are comparing the pricing outside of the mag 7 (who can subsidize under utilization)
A 3‑year, 70%‑utilization payback math puts full‑cycle breakeven roughly in the $0.7–1.0/hr range. NOT including any financing fees and also assuming their datacenter costs 0 dollars (which isnt possible)
But I'd check the other comment because yeah this is base case scenario and there is assumptions here around utilization. No one gets 70%.
The reason I track these is I want to see if the demand is truly sticky and really driven by end users OR if the demand is more scalp based with downstream underutilization and low demand. It's pointing to the latter.
you're using current rates for the entire life cycle of a100s, which are hella old and obviously garnered higher rates before they were 2 generations behind.
Having conversations on the internet is, usually, a bit too confrontational, imho. So I try to be a bit less confrontational on my Internet writing. But basically yeah, at 50c an hour they are making break even or profit.
"Level 3 Fibre Railroad" refers to the use of fiber optic cables, often installed along railway rights-of-way by telecom companies like the former Level 3 Communications (now Lumen), for high-speed data transmission and advanced railroad monitoring (Distributed Acoustic Sensing - DAS) to detect track issues like broken rails or dragging equipment, utilizing existing infrastructure for safety and efficiency.
Basically, prices are falling. Chat gpt is great, they summarized it for me in 5 lines. Bullish. All that fuss, these items don't weigh on the market, investment is based on psychology, not sales. You're buying colored paper, not companies.
Have you already made market analysis? Examined private financials of every company out there? There are companies making lots of money via selling quite sophisticated solutions which either save other companies time/expenses or offer new business edge. Everybody only hears about Palantir and starts crying about how expensive it is, and thinks that’s the only AI solutions vendor, but fails to explore outside of own small box. The truth is there are lots of other companies, profitable and not so much, and it’s just the beginning, you can’t build the whole new industry in a matter of just few years. That’s not to say there won’t be losers, it’s like any other industry, however this one spans across pretty much every other industry in the existence and that’s why the addressable market is so large that it’s impossible to comprehend for those with limited curiosity.
Did we not learn at all from the autonomous driving boom in the 2010s? AI isn’t something you can blitzscale, it’s going to take a long time to find valuable use cases and fine tune to a point where it actually works. Waymo is proof that slow and steady is how you win in AI.
It doesn't really make a lot of sense, AI is littered with garbage.
There are thousands of startups buying AI compute, burning through massive amounts cash, and they don't have a viable business model (selling a service for cash to a consumer\business). Venture capital is just throwing money in a rat's nest and praying it turns into a profitable business.
Sure people may use your service if it is free, but as soon as you try to charge them they aren't interested. Almost no one is willing to pay for AI as of today.
When they go bankrupt they stop buying cloud services, demand falls, and there is no way to make money off these datacenters.
Um no, the entire thing looks like a bubble as they're all spending more and more for diminishing returns, all while businesses start to realize that it's not actually intelligent and is not the panacea they thought it was. It's not just a bubble. The entire thing is the biggest mass delusion to ever infect humanity, and it's all based around our psychological bias towards anthropomorphization. It will collapse, and I don't think it's going to come screaming back after the crash like the internet ded.
Arrow electronics is definetly in the running for that title though. My rough memory is they act like the middleman for the defense industry and it's access to clean AI hardware, but they got a profit margin of like 3%
Arrow is a distributor, not a real growth stock. Their margins will remain static though their volume may change. I just checked their stock, theyre not showing any volatility like an Ai stock.
The internet survived the bubble and AI will the same way but these two might just die. Oracle though idk because their corporate contracts and business systems business is so ingrained.
Yeah, I'm not with you on that. Microsoft and Google are also spending tremendous amounts of money on "AI" bullshit. Amazon's datacenter expansion is probably the bit that looks the least bubbly, and they're still... pretty bubbly.
But Oracle/OpenAI are definitely right at the core of this particular market thermonuclear weapon.
Also remember their expensive purchase )I think $30 billion) of Cerner years ago hasn’t gone anywhere. Many healthcare customers are leaving Cerner for EPIC.
I'm missing out on parabolic runs because I'm an idiot. I'm dumping all my money in XLE, XLU, URA. Meanwhile companies that have never even turned a net profit are worth 2 to 3x XOM. 10x some of the major utilities. Baffling market
I used to work for oracle selling cloud databases in 2021 and any company that works with them basically becomes stuck for life due to the complications of moving. While they may suck on execution, the real revenue will come in a few years.
Oracle is used by a ton of mid sized businesses, those mid sized businesses have been using oracle for 15+ years, they have yet to implement AI. They are not going to switch to pure Azure or AWS, they are not startups. They will use Oracle. Azure and AWS are pricey and Oracle is compliance ready.
Banks, insurers, manufacturers, healthcare chains, etc. A lot of their IT departments use infra written 15 years ago. They can’t afford to rewrite or change and also there are many compliance issues to consider.
A well resourced linux box running oracle db is a multi app host. It is expensive license charging per-physical cpu core of the host and ~2x for encryption but if your pattern fits a vertical integration and not distributed it is a safe bet. These tend to be hospitals, banking, insurance, universities, and industry (80’s) early adopters.
For most real world non-tech technology there is still argument for centralized well hardware-resourced services. Not everyone is willing or compliance allowed to adopt cloud db resources. And as I mentioned if vertical stack integration works, physical control of the VMs, and downtime is important then it is price advantageous to hire a small infra and database administration team to run some oracle boxes.
Oracle cloud ai??? Who knows there, ha. I heard earlier on they were the most generous with free tier but who can trust that to be a reason to pick a cloud provider.
By legal threats really. Oracle is a law firm that happens to sell tech on the side. They sell you their tech. By the time you have it and realize you hate it, you’re stuck because Oracle will threaten to take shit to court. By then it’s cheaper to keep their shit software and write a check (pay ransom) then to pay lawyers to fight a multi year legal battle.
Then I imagine there is some regulatory capture in there. You need, let’s say SAP, or some system that requires compliance. Oracle is the only one who offers a “compliant” solution due to some dubious dealing.
So modern dragons are just billionaires, trying to live forever and sitting on huge hordes of wealth, and the evil wizards are still Oracles with a Palantir.
Been long orcl for years from a pump trap years back, offloaded 50% of my position 3 weeks ago near peak. Gut that day was to close the entire position and take the tax hit, aka donation to the feds, but got too regarded greedy. Ugh.
These are AI bubble companies (SoftBank, Oracle, Nvidia, and OpenAI): big budget announcements, overpromising, using creative math, and having CEOs spend too much time on PR to pump stocks and sustain circular spending, instead of focusing on execution and real technology improvements.
Join WSB Discord
https://preview.redd.it/qb1sdxeszs6g1.jpeg?width=828&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a1f39b42b593796f4eb68423d1062e354805a092
$200 more trillion…nice
And what do we get for that?
But if we don't spend $200 more trillion, the Chinese will make a comparable product for only a few million.. again.
Or, most likely, they will do it anyway because it's not as if OpenAI has actually any unique technology.
the stated plan is to "win the global AI race".
the hidden plan is to completely destroy the US dollar and federal budget and destroy our entire economic system so it can be replaced with something new and a zero debt.
yep. this administration is infested with a bunch of AI fanboys who need infinity dollars. and they will get them from this government.
nobody voted for this.
Dude, why wouldn't you bet on a 25% Oracle bump by next Friday (12/19)???
oh. yeah. don't get me wrong. all in for 12/19 calls. can't lose. so tired of winning.
You forgot higher utility bills for those near the data centers
200 trillion and an eight ball of cocaine, is that too much to ask?
Altman's Bible Bonkers!
Whos funding these guys, are there bank involved, will they need a bailout?
https://preview.redd.it/9956efik0v6g1.jpeg?width=500&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f8dc4e2996a7decbfc9267805d999f99c16c18b6
And RAM, the dickhead
"Just $200T more... Then I promise, AI will actually increase output of things we actually need and prices will stop going up."
Might as well to the moon
Yikes, almost got swept into the RPO hype, assuming that a company as large as Oracle knows what it’s getting into. Apparently they’re just as regarded.
They’re basically a rich person run company that only makes any profit through shady political deals, and screwing over customers
One Rich Asshole Called Larry Ellison
What’s the difference between Larry Ellison and God?… God is aware that he’s not Larry Ellison.
hey they screw over their employees too don't forget that
they’re a CIA front, literally. russia had kaspersky and we have oracle
They’re the worst out of all the AI influencers
Shady political deals is where the most money at.
Yet every other company is being run by the poors, builds business around donating to the society, never involved with the government/lobbying, licks every customer’s ass
I have never once in my life heard anything positive about the company. Like you hear a bunch of stories about Amazon's toxic workplace but apparently Oracle makes it look like valve
FUCK ORACLE THAT DINOSAUR PIECE OF SHIT SHOULD HAVE DIED IN 2000
Riding on unbelievable luck like DT. You cannot argue they created their own luck
Oracle and Open AI are by far the weakest links in the entire AI trade. The whole thing looks a lot less like a bubble without those two.
like most things Oracle touches
So to migrate from this oracle database to the new postgresql is going to cost $600.000.
That's probably on the cheap end right?
"ChatGPT, understand all of my database schemas and write a program that will migrate everything to Postgres. Then run it and check the migrated db for errors. Finally, flip off Larry before shutting down."
It looks like a bubble even without them.
I've been following the gpu cloud rental market for the past year and it's been tanking.
https://intuitionlabs.ai/articles/h100-rental-prices-cloud-comparison
https://www.trendforce.com/news/2025/10/20/news-why-gpu-rental-prices-keep-falling-and-what-it-says-about-the-ai-boom/
These are the companies contributing to Nvidia's sold out inventory. They're all hoping they'll make their funds back by being the next runpod.
If every company was so compute starved and there was "record demand" then the secondary market would be booming.
Instead it's looking like total oversupply. These companies are literally renting these GPUs for BELOW breakeven rates (not even factoring in electricity)
It's an overbuilt bubble.
Fun fact during the Dotcom overbuild while cisco contributed some of the excess inventory the primary driver of the bubble was actually Cisco's customers racing to lay fiber and deploy routers/switches.
In a few years we will spin this to blame the startups and not the big players responsible for it like the dotcom bubble..
https://www.reuters.com/business/two-investment-banks-seek-freedom-us-sec-analyst-research-settlement-2025-06-25/
LOL, Elliott Spitzers name is in that article the horn dog himself. I would not worry about that, they need the SEC off their necks.
We’re not supposed to be smart here
Just tell me what to buy already 😣
Buy patience now, to sell wisdom later.
You missed the last part:
"...which is why I'm dumping my entire life savings into it."
We are supposed to gamble here not do math in the casino
Im curious, what it’s the “smart” side of this on Reddit?
I’m a etf and chill kinda guy but it would be a lot of fun to see people post stuff like that comments and read theories.
I think you could also argue the big hyperscalers are price competing to get clients using their higher margin services and to keep the neoclouds from gaining market share.
Hyperscalers haven't dropped their price to this extent but they have other business lines that contribute to their bottom line - Amazon has other cloud services and we'll Amazon. Meta is advertising, Google is well everything else. They don't need to drop their margins and frankly all their lines of business muddy the waters on how much compute demand their is vs. their legacy tech business.
The drop in price is coming from the other players who contributed to Nvidia's sold out quarters. Pure AI inference and training plays. But the reason I track these is it gives good insight on outside demand from the circular AI industry and it's pointing to a ghost town in terms of usage.
I think it’s an overbuilt bubble but the data is misleading. Older GPUs, H100/A100, will rent out cheaper over time as newer units, H200/Blackwell, are put into service. You need to compare msrp against rental rates at release for each unit and use that ratio to compare. There are more factors at play but that at least compares apples to apples.
The “compare launch MSRP vs launch rental rate” lens is useful, but it’s only part of the story.
I'm looking at today’s economics. I.e. what people actually paid for H100/A100 hardware vs what they can rent it out for now . See my other comments where I did the math using today's rates.
If older GPUs naturally drift cheaper as H200/Blackwell arrive that’s fine ONLY if the owner has largely paid down the original capex. The problem is a lot of this gear was bought in the last 1-3 years at peak pricing during the VC spending spree via these providers.
When rental rates get pushed down toward or below full cycle breakeven while the loans are still outstanding, the age doesn’t save you. it just means you’re servicing yesterday’s gear / capex with today’s compressed cash.
In that sense falling H100/A100 rental prices are a red flag. They show current supply/demand and ROI pressure on recent purchases, not just a normal generational price.
And it’s not like most of this gear was bought for cash. Look at the public disclosures from the AI infra players we CAN see. CoreWeave has raised well over $10B in secured debt facilities for GPUs and data centers, and Oracle AI build out is explicitly tied to a debt load north of $100B.
That’s before even getting into Nvidia‑linked financing and co‑signed deals. This isn’t a clean, pay as you go upgrade cycle. It's a lot of leverage that only works if rental economics hold up...which right now they don't seem to be at all. It looks more like scalp demand padding Nvidia’s books than durable, self funding infrastructure...and that can only run so long before the financing and ROI math collide and investors get wise to all of this.
Bang, you 're on the right track. As a customer in the gpu cloud rental market and neoclouds the prices have to go down. $2/gpu per hour to run training is one time capex but you better have product market fit or it's a huge waste of cash.
AI inference is worse, 50% of inference compute is wasted effort, as it's needed for filtering data to an actual customer's needs, or customers not knowing what they need (how many times have you asked the same question, rephased in chatgpt to get 'the right answer"? $1/hr inference is way too expensive and firms like OpenAI/Claude/MCPs going with tokens helps but needs another 50% cut for them to be profitable. Hyperscalers over-charging (double) & making money hand over fist and no one realizes it's a cheat, yet.
Yeah I used to do cloud training before I got my own rig. It's crazy how expensive it still all is even knowing the guys outside mag 7 are below water.
Paying hourly for a bad training run or a bunch of hallucinated inference doesn't scale at all.
It's not asking the wrong question though, it's that it gives a shitty or wrong answer and it has to be told 5 times it's wrong to maybe give you something better that it tunnels a pattern on.
I worked for Nortel during the dotcom boom, they were swimming in money, stock parabolic. The rugpull happened within a couple of months, 50,000 laid off, properties auctioned off. We were installing terabit fiber networks across state lines as fast as they could get us on the next flight.
My hot take is that demand is coming from the business and enterprise world, and they mostly use models from Openai/Google/Anthropic. Those models aren't served on GPUs from third parties due to the need for keeping the models from leaking out and alao because of compliance reasons. Also chinese models are a big no in enterprise. The consumer market is served by ChatGPT and Gemini.
There are just very few good reasons to run open weights on rented GPUs in the cloud right now.
Why would a US enterprise trust OpenAI or Google models more than one from China or some open source model from Baruvia (especially if it's cheap)? What could go wrong? What guarantees and safeguards are OpenAI and Google making to their users? Can users verify those guarantees?
Contracts. It's easy for an US company to sue another US company, difficult if not impossible to do it with a Chinese one. Open source means there is no one to sue.
Also is worth noting, companies rarely cares about data themselves. They just want to be protected if their clients sue them. It's just a big chain, where they can shift blame and responsibilities
Correct. It all ends with one of the largest 25 global insurers in the end (reinsurance) ultimately.
[deleted]
The math is all there. Also you can use other trackers to see what the hourly rate is. For example alot of places are doing the h100 for 1.50 it's absurd.
Remember as well these companies have bought these units via financing. Meaning they also have interest rates to pay on all the loans.
This whole thing is pointing to an underutilization and oversupply because if the demand was there they wouldn't be dropping their pants on the pricing to this extent.
You're also bringing up hyperscalers. This is a tangential market.
But we can infer global demand by looking at the gou rental space only because if I'm a fortune 500 and needing GPUs which are sold out everywhere then this is a good portion of the market I'd be looking to fill the compute need.
But the demand is clearly not there.
Just a small note the 200k is for the dgx... The GPU was 10- 15k which probably boils down to like 50c an hour once u add some server cost?
From Google search:
AI Overview NVIDIA A100 PCIe 80 GB Specs | TechPowerUp GPU Database When NVIDIA launched the A100 in May 2020, it was positioned as a high-end AI accelerator, with systems like the DGX A100 costing around $200,000, while individual GPU modules (40GB/80GB) had street prices starting from roughly $10,000-$15,000, depending on the reseller and variant (PCIe vs. SXM),
A100s are also below breakeven rates.
I left another comment doing the math on h100s but the same is true for a100s. Remember there is nuance since we are comparing the pricing outside of the mag 7 (who can subsidize under utilization)
A100 goes for about ~0.66 hr (40g)
https://www.thundercompute.com/blog/cheapest-cloud-gpu-providers-in-2025
A100 80gb is ~0.78 per hour
https://www.thundercompute.com/pricing
A100s are estimated around $9.5–14k per GPU.
A 3‑year, 70%‑utilization payback math puts full‑cycle breakeven roughly in the $0.7–1.0/hr range. NOT including any financing fees and also assuming their datacenter costs 0 dollars (which isnt possible)
But I'd check the other comment because yeah this is base case scenario and there is assumptions here around utilization. No one gets 70%.
The reason I track these is I want to see if the demand is truly sticky and really driven by end users OR if the demand is more scalp based with downstream underutilization and low demand. It's pointing to the latter.
you're using current rates for the entire life cycle of a100s, which are hella old and obviously garnered higher rates before they were 2 generations behind.
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Having conversations on the internet is, usually, a bit too confrontational, imho. So I try to be a bit less confrontational on my Internet writing. But basically yeah, at 50c an hour they are making break even or profit.
Ai data centers have nice profit margins!
What are your thoughts on the claim that the AI data centers will consume 12-15% of all US power ? Where is that coming from lol
Aren’t those the older GPU models?
How about the new Blackwell B200s? I presume those prices are higher
"Level 3 Fibre Railroad" refers to the use of fiber optic cables, often installed along railway rights-of-way by telecom companies like the former Level 3 Communications (now Lumen), for high-speed data transmission and advanced railroad monitoring (Distributed Acoustic Sensing - DAS) to detect track issues like broken rails or dragging equipment, utilizing existing infrastructure for safety and efficiency.
That is a fun fact. Definite potential Nvidia parallel. All those rock solid deals could evaporate.
But then stocks are close to all time highs, and who knows... maybe AI kicks in a gear or two and some of that over capacity looks prophetic.
Care to explain what you mean by secondary market? Second-hand?
Remember when their cards were being bid on EBAY? What's the situation now? Glut?
Can you message me or make a post when they have to start liquidating this hardware? I am poor and wanna know when to look out for cheap cards
Basically, prices are falling. Chat gpt is great, they summarized it for me in 5 lines. Bullish. All that fuss, these items don't weigh on the market, investment is based on psychology, not sales. You're buying colored paper, not companies.
It will look less like a bubble once companies start making a profit off implementing AI.
Until then (if?) this is all a very fragile construct running off capital earned from other endeavours, and fumes of hope.
If either of those runs out before people start returning a profit from implementing AI, we’re screwed.
Yeah, about that...
Hey about that first part...
I would love an AI driven Outlook and would beg my company to pay for it. Fuck the time I spend on my emails and calendars.
They already are
They’ve being lowering the compute and it shows
Have you already made market analysis? Examined private financials of every company out there? There are companies making lots of money via selling quite sophisticated solutions which either save other companies time/expenses or offer new business edge. Everybody only hears about Palantir and starts crying about how expensive it is, and thinks that’s the only AI solutions vendor, but fails to explore outside of own small box. The truth is there are lots of other companies, profitable and not so much, and it’s just the beginning, you can’t build the whole new industry in a matter of just few years. That’s not to say there won’t be losers, it’s like any other industry, however this one spans across pretty much every other industry in the existence and that’s why the addressable market is so large that it’s impossible to comprehend for those with limited curiosity.
Did we not learn at all from the autonomous driving boom in the 2010s? AI isn’t something you can blitzscale, it’s going to take a long time to find valuable use cases and fine tune to a point where it actually works. Waymo is proof that slow and steady is how you win in AI.
What about companies like Fermi? IPO’d 3 months ago at 32 and is at 10 today after dropping 35% just today.
It doesn't really make a lot of sense, AI is littered with garbage.
There are thousands of startups buying AI compute, burning through massive amounts cash, and they don't have a viable business model (selling a service for cash to a consumer\business). Venture capital is just throwing money in a rat's nest and praying it turns into a profitable business.
Sure people may use your service if it is free, but as soon as you try to charge them they aren't interested. Almost no one is willing to pay for AI as of today.
When they go bankrupt they stop buying cloud services, demand falls, and there is no way to make money off these datacenters.
Are we counting Palantir in that?
PLTR is an extension of the surveillance state so it will have unlimited govt funds to keep it afloat
afloat and 400+PE can be two different things
Um no, the entire thing looks like a bubble as they're all spending more and more for diminishing returns, all while businesses start to realize that it's not actually intelligent and is not the panacea they thought it was. It's not just a bubble. The entire thing is the biggest mass delusion to ever infect humanity, and it's all based around our psychological bias towards anthropomorphization. It will collapse, and I don't think it's going to come screaming back after the crash like the internet ded.
You're up to your neck in puts aren't you
I haven't held options or even short term stocks in many years, so no.
Oh cool. Show us your puts.
Of the big companies, yeah, but Coreweave is even weaker.
Oracle and OpenAI are the ones driving everyone else's earnings. Who do you think is buying all of Nvidia and Broadcom's chips?
Alphabet, Meta, XAI, Amazon, Microsoft, Anthropic and numerous others?
Arrow electronics is definetly in the running for that title though. My rough memory is they act like the middleman for the defense industry and it's access to clean AI hardware, but they got a profit margin of like 3%
Arrow is a distributor, not a real growth stock. Their margins will remain static though their volume may change. I just checked their stock, theyre not showing any volatility like an Ai stock.
Im not sure why youre trying to link arrow to ai.
The internet survived the bubble and AI will the same way but these two might just die. Oracle though idk because their corporate contracts and business systems business is so ingrained.
Wasn't it just a few weeks ago that oracle said they had hundreds of billions in contracts over next few years?
NVIDIA 4,5T lol
Jensen Huang ain’t gonna be gifting Larry Ellison a black leather jacket anytime soon
He has already talked to WH about getting bailout from US taxpayers..
Yeah, I'm not with you on that. Microsoft and Google are also spending tremendous amounts of money on "AI" bullshit. Amazon's datacenter expansion is probably the bit that looks the least bubbly, and they're still... pretty bubbly.
But Oracle/OpenAI are definitely right at the core of this particular market thermonuclear weapon.
Could OpenAI blow up ORCL balance sheet and now we are taking about a major loss?
Perplexity would like to have a word with you
ORCL is a fucking joke
Ellison, I mean Saudi, better not buy WB.
That guy needs to gtfo.
Nice to learn about this weeks after Wallstreet pumped the CDSs. Totally illegal
They dead. 💀
edit: Fuck Ellison. Satan incarnated.
This guy gets it.
The fucking real Antichrist. Peter Thiel should be looking at Ellison.
If Ellison is the anti-christ... then thiel is the devil.
Good thing I have dumped all my Oracle shares.
Plastic Satan
Sad thing is Ellison already won. He 100% cashed out when the stock peaked
ORCL is worse off now than before all the unrealistic promises, how far will they go?
Oracle caused the downfall of Broadcom today.
And yet that shit got a bounce yesterday and AVGO haven't..
lol did Oracle just fuck the market
another humiliation for Oracle is something to look forward to, I suppose
a bankruptcy is too much to hope for with the dictator's dick In Ellison's mouth
Can i pay on Tues for a data center today?
That's just saying, "we really want to continue riding the hype but we really don't want to put money into it right now"
Which means in reality they'll never happen. Big shock - they were never happening in the first place.
I’m good w that the stock was better before this bullshit
Also remember their expensive purchase )I think $30 billion) of Cerner years ago hasn’t gone anywhere. Many healthcare customers are leaving Cerner for EPIC.
I own Oracle but wish they would just ditch the deal. The company was doing great without it.
Im selling when oracle hits 500 a share
Same
https://preview.redd.it/ojznlzfp6t6g1.png?width=1192&format=png&auto=webp&s=c92660f63985469369402619ebd403088be417eb
Debacle
Nobody can get power to these sites quick enough.
I'm missing out on parabolic runs because I'm an idiot. I'm dumping all my money in XLE, XLU, URA. Meanwhile companies that have never even turned a net profit are worth 2 to 3x XOM. 10x some of the major utilities. Baffling market
Oh man it’s really over 😭
Oracle is a boomer company. They have become worse than IBM
IBM still does a ton of R&D though. Oracle just sits back on their licensing costs and shitty DB engine
Check again. False reporting.
One Rich Asshole Called Larry Ellison
Fuck you Ellison
I guess he needs his cash for the WB "takeover"
Yup. He shorted the company to raise money.
Fake news. They said it's not true
Looks like the "circular financing" they did with OpenAi isn't going good.
Oracle is managing to ruin what would otherwise be a wonderful week for the market
I used to work for oracle selling cloud databases in 2021 and any company that works with them basically becomes stuck for life due to the complications of moving. While they may suck on execution, the real revenue will come in a few years.
Oracle is used by a ton of mid sized businesses, those mid sized businesses have been using oracle for 15+ years, they have yet to implement AI. They are not going to switch to pure Azure or AWS, they are not startups. They will use Oracle. Azure and AWS are pricey and Oracle is compliance ready.
I personally expect high gains in 2026+.
Oracle needs to raise $38bln soon to hit their valuation….
Any business still using Oracle is desperately behind the times and not a business I would bet on lol
Banks, insurers, manufacturers, healthcare chains, etc. A lot of their IT departments use infra written 15 years ago. They can’t afford to rewrite or change and also there are many compliance issues to consider.
A well resourced linux box running oracle db is a multi app host. It is expensive license charging per-physical cpu core of the host and ~2x for encryption but if your pattern fits a vertical integration and not distributed it is a safe bet. These tend to be hospitals, banking, insurance, universities, and industry (80’s) early adopters.
For most real world non-tech technology there is still argument for centralized well hardware-resourced services. Not everyone is willing or compliance allowed to adopt cloud db resources. And as I mentioned if vertical stack integration works, physical control of the VMs, and downtime is important then it is price advantageous to hire a small infra and database administration team to run some oracle boxes.
Oracle cloud ai??? Who knows there, ha. I heard earlier on they were the most generous with free tier but who can trust that to be a reason to pick a cloud provider.
Well. That's does not sound like an AI company, but why priced like one?
Is there anything oracle does well? I don’t really understand how they’re still around and this big still
By legal threats really. Oracle is a law firm that happens to sell tech on the side. They sell you their tech. By the time you have it and realize you hate it, you’re stuck because Oracle will threaten to take shit to court. By then it’s cheaper to keep their shit software and write a check (pay ransom) then to pay lawyers to fight a multi year legal battle.
Then I imagine there is some regulatory capture in there. You need, let’s say SAP, or some system that requires compliance. Oracle is the only one who offers a “compliant” solution due to some dubious dealing.
“my son needs money for wbd”
So modern dragons are just billionaires, trying to live forever and sitting on huge hordes of wealth, and the evil wizards are still Oracles with a Palantir.
Shocked I tell you
Ai bubble popping
Pop!
Bullish, somehow
More like bullshit…
Why so weak?
And so the AI bubble sell off begins! 😀
Does anyone actually own oracle? Despite all the ai stuff, I never looked in their direction.
Google is going full throttle on DC construction. They're going to have so much compute power soon hopefully oracle just rents from goog
They ain't got the Silver
larry running a clown show over there.
fucking ruining everything for everyone
EPIC FAIL orcl.
Been long orcl for years from a pump trap years back, offloaded 50% of my position 3 weeks ago near peak. Gut that day was to close the entire position and take the tax hit, aka donation to the feds, but got too regarded greedy. Ugh.
Debt debt debt!
LMFAO
Just in time for 2026 and 2027 crash.
As much as I want to clown on them, there really are supply chain issues in getting the hardware.
These POS brought back down the entire market
These are AI bubble companies (SoftBank, Oracle, Nvidia, and OpenAI): big budget announcements, overpromising, using creative math, and having CEOs spend too much time on PR to pump stocks and sustain circular spending, instead of focusing on execution and real technology improvements.
AI-bubble companies - LOUD, EXPENSIVE, and DELAY.
Maybe push it to never.
Just like the Tesla Roadster. All a con job
Orcl is cookd