11,642 "other deliveries". Cybertruck, S, and X are in real distress at this point. If this continues, they'll have to write off the entire CT program. Roughly 10k/yr isn't sustainable.
"Revenue? No, no, no, no. Why would you go after revenue? If you show people revenue, they'll ask 'How much?' And it will never be enough. The company that was the 100x-er becomes the 2x dog. But if you have no revenue, you can say you're pre-revenue and you're a potential pure play."
I think it's simpler than that. It started meme-ing a few years ago, and now holders retcon a justification for the price. If enough people believe in something, then that just becomes reality, hence the price.
I actually think if the price was lower, TESLA as a company would do better. I think there's no pressure on Elon to do the obvious basics right (cheaper model, a new Y, better batteries, semi).
I do think 2026 will set the direction for the company though - I hope against hope that he does some of the aforementioned and then FSD almost clicks. But then markets can remain irrational for longer...
Isn't that how stocks work? You believe the company will deliver X, so you buy. You don't believe anymore, you sell. Many people still believe, so the price goes up
The interesting thing with Tesla is that the X keeps changing.
5 years ago the discussion was about millions of Cybertruck reservations, how Tesla's 4680 cells would enable 50% range increase at 50% lower cost per kWh, their upcoming $25k EV, the new Mexico factory, and 20 million vehicles per year by 2030.
Tesla Semi would of course be ramping up soon, plus the 2020 Roadster.
Also that there would be millions of Robotaxis on the road by 2021, that existing HW3 Teslas were capable of earning you money while you sleep on the Tesla network and would be appreciating assets, etc.
These are all things that Tesla and Elon promoted.
Now those things are all passé. Tesla not meeting those goals doesn't matter because we have new shiny things to believe in, like AI investments, Cybercab / Robovan, Optimus humanoid robots, etc.
I agree - but once again, isn't that also how other companies work? sometimes they bet on the wrong horse and it doesn't go right
and time estimations are really hard, specially when you're trying to estimate something you can't compare with anything else you ever made. I face the same problem many times working as a software engineer
It's possible the price is affected by the fact that the "richest man in the world" can dump billions into the stock of his own company on the open market, and was able to successfully infiltrate the government to remove any regulatory bodies that would stop him, but you're probably right that its just the retail people holding onto their nominal shares and it's not a fraudulent situation at all.
Optimus has zero revenue and no clear deployment timeline, Dojo is dead, and 4680 is a flop with an unclear future — they're far behind their peers as a tech company too. About all there is to hedge with is FSD, and even that's in a very precarious position.
All that to say: Right now Tesla the tech company isn't looking so hot either.
That is why it has taken the last couple of years to get that last 10 percent. It has been past 90 for years. I have FSD for about 1.5 years and it has gone from good to incredible in that time. In my opinion it is 99.9% ready for unsupervised and robotaxi. I'm curious as to how many of you naysayers have even ridden in a Tesla with FSD in the past few months?
99.9% is not even close. That is one accident per 1000 miles. Musk once told the truth and said they are on the march of the 9s. But each 9 is exponentially more difficult to achieve.
Waymo is at that level. They have 150 million miles of paid self driving and now are doing 450,000 paid trips a week. There is a reason Tesla only has 30 Taxis operational and have 5 on the road at any given time. They are at an accident rate of 1 per 40,000 miles. And that is with a supervisor in the seat who has certainly negated some.
In my opinion it is 99.9% ready for unsupervised and robotaxi.
That's precisely the problem — 99.9% isn't enough. Safety critical applications mean reliability of 99.99999% or greater. What you think is 90% of the work is just the first 90%. There's an entire other 90% after that first 90%.
Musk actually said something truthfully a few years back. FSD is the march of the 9 now. Each 9 will be incrementally more difficult than the last.
The stat should be disengagement per 100k. Or something to that effect. And even that is questionable as most do not engage it in bad weather to begin.
Yes but the stock price is based on massive growth almost entirely and that has gone away. There is no roadmap to the valuation now and just keeping on hoping it is some other product is not a viable business plan.
Apparently you haven’t been paying attention, I already stated Tesla revenue used to be 100% cars, it’s now 70% cars, that number is going down every single year. Amazing how these posts and articles never compare revenue, they always compare vehicle unit sales while conveniently ignoring 30% of their revenue. That’s without factoring new revenue streams promised.
Except those revenue streams are becoming a larger percentage because... their other streams are declining. The other streams that about 90 percent of their valuation is bases on. More so based on them growing massively.
So by your logic, dropping sales of the cars would even show the other revenue as a larger percentage of their full revenue. Even if that other revenue stream did not change. In what investment world would that be a metric anyone would use???
It not growing to justify a 1.5 trillion dollar company. And you put out a metric that is positive only if you do not include that their major stream is in decline.
Beelining towards an ad hominem on someone because they gave a reply you don't like isn't the move. Try a more substantive response related to the topic of Tesla.
Total vehicles for 2025 was 1,636,129. Compared to 2024's 1,789,226. This is an 8.55% decline
Energy storage volume in 2025 was 46.7 GWh. Compared to 2024's 31.4 GWh. This is a 48.7% increase
The question I have is whether B2B sales in Energy will make up for, and eventually exceed, the decline in consumer automotive.
Tesla needs enough cash flow to keep funding the AI product roadmap.
If cash flow dries up and there's no clear path towards general purpose robot AI training, I believe TSLA will lose about 85% of its present market cap
There are so many much larger companies in the energy sector than Tesla that do the same thing with far more experience and factors far larger customer base. This is not some novel market and again, does not scale in growth to somehow match their market valuation.
And yet Tesla is still half of what Ford does. I am not sure what your point it. If you did not buy in 2016 (actually before 2022), you have missed the bus by a mile. I did not think it was a particularly bad buy in 2016. But it certainly is now.
Auto has a much stronger moat than battery packs. It’s a lot harder to design an entire EV on the back of batteries than an inverter and customer interface for a pack of batteries. It took Tesla about 9-10 years for its auto moat to erode. It had a nice car with good branding a great design language etc.
Its battery storage moat is collapsing a lot faster. In Q3 (we don’t have Q4 data yet) both Sungrow and BYD installed more GWh of commercial BESS than Tesla did. Tesla still leads on the consumer front but its already lost its market leadership position on the commercial front. There doesn’t seem to be a route to Tesla regaining market leadership in BESS because its batteries do t have any special feature that alternatives don’t have. In auto FSD is best in class. In battery storage there’s no major features. People just want batteries to battery. And the Chinese can make the batteries cheaper and better.
The market is still growing fast enough that losing leadership isn’t yet reflected in downward pressure on sales but that’s not infinite. Growth markets always eventually consolidate - and tend to consolidate around leaders not the ones who lost leadership.
The BESS market is very new, and the Tesla Megapack is a leader in this market. Megapacks are seeing a very fast growth curve, and the new Megablocks should be another hit. Megapacks provide a higher margin than EVs, so represent a better use of batteries. It’s only been a couple of years since the cost of batteries fell to the level where BESS became a more economical alternative to natural gas peaker plants. The projected TAM for BESS over the next several years is huge. Favoring expansion of the Megapack and Megablock business over the EV business right now is smart, given the current limitations in battery availability and reduced incentives for EV production. Opinions will vary, but Tesla Energy has a lot of potential and is growing very fast. It’s worth paying attention to it.
This is not some novel market and again, does not scale in growth to somehow match their market valuation.
Irrelevant.
Nowhere in my comment did I state that Tesla Energy justifies TSLA's market cap. By itself, Tesla Energy is not worth much.
The only reason Automotive and Energy are important to TSLA, is because these 2 businesses provide the present cash flow that funds Tesla's future AI product roadmap. Other companies being present in these businesses has nothing to do with the fact that both energy and auto (as of Q3 anyways) continue to generate cash flow for Tesla.
Should that cash flow evaporate before Tesla AI has a clear path to high margin profitability, TSLA valuation is likely IMO to collapse 85%.
Profits dropped 70% in 2024. That is really much more relevant IMO. Tesla does not have AI. Or better said, Tesla has a very specific type of AI. Musk in 2023 said if he did not get his billion dollar payouts, he would not start up general AI in Tesla. Than proceeded to start his own AI company Grok. Musk is not going to let Tesla be a competitor to that. (He is getting personally sued for by major investors BTW for resource tunneling and failing fiduciary duties to shareholders).
I do not see Tesla going out of business. They have some good products. But ya an 85% decline in valuation is highly likely over a number of years.
I don't think most TSLA shareholders and parties buying TSLA actually care about current profits.
Current profits matter for mature businesses where there is no expectation of radical change in direction. Proctor & Gamble, Walmart, and Visa are some examples. Tesla's pivot away from mainstream automotive is widely known. Nobody buying the stock is valuing it as an auto only business.
Cash flow matters a lot more than profits for businesses involved in high risk, future-oriented ventures. Profitability is affected by things like depreciation, which are often accounting abstractions (in large part for tax purposes) that do not reflect the daily operations of a business.
Without positive cash flow, there's no money to invest in things like machine learning datacenters or robot production lines.
Tesla's valuation may get into trouble if cash flow dries up.
No cash means no more Cortex training center construction. If the future roadmap evaporates for lack of capital, that's what is IMO likely to crash the stock over a period of time.
Yep. But when profits drop, cash flow dries up. Tesla has no product on the market for radical change of direction. Everyone up till about a year ago said it was their EV division. And now they are say oh that was not it, lets pivot to something else.
Tesla is so overvalued that they can keep diluting the shares and get more capital. Which they should and they have. But Musk compensation packages are depleting that capital they are sitting on. It is all being given to Musk personally and that is before any future compensation packages that are suggested.
Now it is billion spent on project after project and throwing money to the wind. Their biggest claim was the Cybertruck of which everyone said would justify the capitalization and growth. Complete flop. Now there are 5 taxis on the road at any given time. The know if they put 100 out there, FSD is not ready and there will be large accidents and PR disasters they can not hide.
So what do they do? They put a gold painted hand crafted two door car at the end of one of their production runs, take some pictures and hint it is in production (it is not). And when they do run one car on the road, they surround it by unmarked following vehicles, ensure it takes an easy route and gets some influencers to click a few pictures.
Corporate guidance has been a complete joke out of Tesla for a lot of years. Not hitting targets is a bit red flag for any company. More so when 90 percent plus of your valuation is getting in reach of them. Now they have nothing on the horizon anymore and an aging line of vehicle. I say vehicle because they only have only two models no less.
Tesla is so overvalued that they can keep diluting the shares and get more capital. Which they should and they have. But Musk compensation packages are depleting that capital
You're making no sense whatsoever.
Do you read the SEC filings? Tesla's capital hoard actually grew from January to September of this year.
Musk's compensation is in stock and options, not capital (cash). This is mostly irrelevant to the current risks faced by Tesla's business.
Page 37: As of September 30, 2025, we had $18.29 billion and $23.36 billion of cash and cash equivalents and short-term investments, respectively.
Q3: 41.65 Billion total cash and short-term instruments
Profitability is down. Cash flow has continued to add to their bank accounts, even with massive expenditures on AI datacenter construction and additional CapEx for the Tesla Semi factory and pilot Bot production line.
The true risk: cash flow situation could reverse for Q4 and future quarters. If cash flow goes negative and the bank balances decline for a few quarters in a row, with no AI profits on the horizon, that's when investors will become far more concerned than they are today.
If you cannot comprehend the financial statements (or even basic accounting principles), you have no understanding of the massive risks TSLA shareholders face.
Why would that be a problem' it seems that TSLA can dilute everyone to infinity without issue. They will just create more stock to finance whatever is the next big things.
Why would that be a problem' it seems that TSLA can dilute everyone to infinity without issue.
The last major secondary offering was in late 2020, around the time TSLA was included in the S&P500. Tesla's underlying automotive business was growing rapidly (and with good margins) back then.
Since then, Tesla has largely self-financed its highly speculative AI project pipeline.
There's no guarantee that the public markets would buy up newly created TSLA shares like it did in 2020.
At $600, the market cap is about $2 trillion, one of the qualifiers for Musk’s first tranche in the new pay package. Not really expecting to see it by eom, but wouldn’t be shocked if we did.
Let me get this straight. . .
Tesla is selling fewer cars
They are selling are lower margins
They just lost all their carbon credit subsidies
They just diluted the companies with a massive amount of shares
But the share price is still next to an all-time high?
Even if I wanted to invest in this company. . . it is honestly gambling.
I agree with you that TSLA absolutely is gambling.
The bet is that Tesla will be able to create a general AI architecture that allows them to train robots to do any manual task. Robotaxi is merely a "proof of concept" that this is possible: teach a robot to drive. I don't believe Robotaxi service itself is likely to be worth much.
The money is in training robots to be cooks, construction workers, janitors, shelf stockers, and most any other occupation involving manual labor. The TAM is huge.
And it doesn't even have to be a perfect AI platform. It has to be just A) good enough and B) commercialized enough, to demolish the entire bottom third of the entire economy. Think of stupid simple things like an Optimus bagging groceries, washing windows, whatever it might be that doesn't require big thought. Then think of the marketplace for something like that, alone, with none of the "this takes over the trades" aspiration. The revenue from that adressable market is stupid to think about
I just laugh when I see the PE ratio is 300. . . It's like we have decided Tesla is the only company that can grow and innovate with those kinds of numbers.
At the price, the PE ratio starts to become irrelevant. Their profits declined 70 percent in 2024. What is the decline this year? They are so close to not making a profit that their PE ratio could go to a billion. Or they may make a loss even and PE has no meaning.
Timing that is the impossible to predict, but extremely lucrative if you're lucky! If it was at $120 back in April 2024 with delays and declining sales since then, it can easily go back.
the margin on cars is in the toilet as their entry level models are cannibalising sales of more expensive models.
A kWh stored in a CATL battery pack is the same as a kWh stored in a Tesla battery pack. Tesla have no unique compelling selling point in Storage and Sodium is where that Industry is heading, not LFP or NMC or cylindrical cells.
Market cap at 1.47 trillion. I think that is close enough. Ford has a market cap about 40 billion dollars and is a much bigger company to put it in perspective. And Ford is not seeing the declining sales like Tesla is.
How far down? Is it 30%? No. Is it even 18%? Don't know, but if it's 10% it's still positive margin.
Are you talking about gross automotive margins, or actual net margins for the company? Because they aren't even close to those numbers for the latter, and if they are at 10% for gross automotive margins they probably wouldn't be profitable as a company at all.
Which is quite possible. They were very close to margins of the typical car companies in 2024. And they seen a 70 percent decline in profits that year. Since then they have even dropped their prices more which as we know ever drop comes entirely out of profits. There is a good chance Tesla has very little profit this year. Next year is not looking better.
Prices actually didn't drop that much over the course of 2025. Automotive revenue per delivery has looked like this over the past 7 quarters:
Q1 2024: $44,926.45
Q2 2024: $44,774.71
Q3 2024: $43,241.37
Q4 2024: $39,949.96
Q1 2025: $41,484.37
Q2 2025: $43,374.24
Q3 2025: $42,657.50
Basically the refreshed Model Y allowed them to keep pricing relatively high, plus the expiry of the US tax credits made an artificial demand bump in Q3. I expect the Q4 numbers to show a decent drop because of the lack of demand in the US in Q4 along with the introduction of lower cost variants of the Model 3 and Model Y. But they will likely still be profitable in Q4 (barely), and over the course of the first three quarters of 2025 already had net income of $2.95 billion.
2026 will indeed be a very rough year, and they may not be profitable. Without any new models and the existing lineup not getting refreshed, demand is going to continue on a downward trend. Lower volumes, weaker pricing power, and reduced regulatory credits are going to hurt the automotive segment. The robotaxi venture is not going to generate significant revenue and will have high upfront costs. The robot venture won't generate any appreciable revenue this year. The energy segment is continuing to grow and will be very helpful, but unclear if that will be sufficient to offset the losses in the automotive segment. If Q1 shows a big loss I think investors are going to start getting very nervous.
Toyota reported a net profit margin of 8.8% while Tesla reported 5.3% in their most recent report. They are in fact doing much worse than “traditional” manufacturers.
I would assume this is going to take a hit in 2026 too since there was a rush to get rooftop solar by year end to get the 30% credit before it goes away
Most of the energy business isn't coming from residential solar installations, but rather commercial/industrial battery pack & grid installations (eg: AI data centres being a growing slice)
Powerwall has experience a massive drop in sales and a big problem with liability. Some fire issues resulted in Tesla remotely shutting them down. I think that big market will not be coming back.
All the same, it never really panned out to begin. Is a minute slice of their energy sector. The big stuff that is talked about has much bigger and more established companies doing it already. The exact same stuff but with a lot more years of experience.
Is there a reason for giving GWh growth instead of revenue or profit growth?
Does the GWh scale up faster than revenue growth because newer models of battery packs have higher capacities? If you sell the same number of battery packs for the same cost but the battery pack industry got more competitive and the packs now have to have twice the capacity as what they used to, then you end up with 100% GWh growth and 0% revenue growth… it’s just an example that isn’t necessarily indicative of what is happening but demonstrates why the metric might be flawed for measuring performance of the business.
Ah ok, it’ll be interesting to see how revenue aligns with GWh growth, I’m genuinely curious to see since it seems to be both a growing industry in revenues and in capacities for products
Legit question: Tesla has consistently missed its FSD self-imposed targets for a decade now; is there an indication that they are being more honest with their future autonomy goals (Optimus, Robotaxi, etc)?
I just haven’t seen a shift in execution that would justify the future-focused valuation.
Most people have made up their minds already and I've found it pointless to convince them one way or the other. 2026 is a massive year for Tesla and it's time to put up or shut up.
Yea, they missed their opportunity for FSD mega margins a long time ago. I was invested until around a year ago and that was one of the reasons I ultimately decided to take profits and just put it into QQQ and SPY. No doubt FSD has made great progress and there will be autonomous cybercabs at some point, but they're not going to have the advantage or moat that they would have had they released production FSD a few years ago as promised. Look what's happening with LLMs - there's OpenAI, Gemini, Anthropic, etc and they're essentially all the same. No one has a moat. Same thing will happen with autonomous driving. Yes there's a hardware component, but other companies will catch up there too.
Everyone says Waymo can never scale, google doesn't manufacture cars, etc. But I don't think that's their end game. They're running the vehicles themselves right now because they need to have complete control while it's in development. Once it hits wide release though, I think they're gonna partner with car companies and/or Uber/Lyft to retrofit the cars with whatever sensor suite they need and roll it out that way. Even if it's a $10k retrofit, that's still a lot cheaper than needing a driver in every ride.
Tesla might have a brief period where they're the only major player in town but others won't be far behind and it'll be like airline pricing - a race to the bottom where consumers win and shareholders lose. I'd rather be the consumer than the shareholder. Not to mention Elon's tendency to go off his rocker, piss everyone off and cause a 70% drawdown for no reason. I was fine stomaching a 70% drawdown at $20 a share knowing a 10 bagger was definitely on the table. At $500 / share, a 70% drawdown is unacceptable to me. That actually affects FSD too, there are a lot of people who simply will never get in a Tesla cybercab because they hate Elon so much, so they'll wait for the Waymo or whatver else there is.
Even if it's a $10k retrofit, that's still a lot cheaper than needing a driver in every ride.
Will it be?
One thing has always confused me about the autonomous cab model - the driver isn't actually that big of a cost, in the scheme of things.
One of the biggest reasons Uber et all blew up so fast and annihilated taxi companies is fleet management, not labor cost. Uber drivers are not paid much... and they provide all the necessary capital investment at no charge.
A lot of uber drivers actually lose money when you account for running costs and depreciation. The secret sauce at uber and most other delivery gig work companies is the free fleet maintained at owner expense. They buy the car, they handle service, they manage insurance claims, they clean and wash the fleet, and they do all of that for free.
It would not be a 10k retrofit to make a car waymo ready lol. It would be drastically, drastically more. How many 8 dollar cab rides are you going to get out of the life of that hardware and that vehicle? How many staff are you going to have to hire to handle lost items/customer service/cleaning/maintenance/etc?
And then if fully autonomous cabs are actually solved, if there's any competition in the marketplace the price will be incredibly responsive to competitive price pressure.
The rideshare space is insanely low margin and employees subsidize almost all capital costs for free. FSD is really amazing technology, but I see it being much, much more useful in trucking and as a premium add on than I do as an immediate Uber killer.
> there are a lot of people who simply will never get in a Tesla cybercab because they hate Elon so much, so they'll wait for the Waymo or whatver else there is.
not if it's $15 vs $3, if what I'm seeing in san francisco is the plan
If one of the airlines could build their own airplanes for half the cost that did not need a crew, what do you think would happen to the other airlines?
14.2.2.2 is honestly amazing. You can finally apply all the adjectives Whole Mars spewed for version 10 to this. It’s too bad the head of the company has no credibility outside his bubble, because they finally delivered.
But yet the Taxis are experience accidents reported by Tesla every 40,000 miles. And that is with a safety driver that has most certainly negated a few. Humans are about 500,000 miles.
It’s really too bad they over promised for some many years. I haven’t driven a Tesla with the latest FSD, I did drive an early version that was impressive but didn’t feel solid enough to trust.
I hope they make it! I feel this company is over valued but could be a major source of good in the world.
I’m pretty sure Netflix didn’t lose net subscribers, they just switched to the higher margin streaming business. That’s the part missing from your analogy, Tesla’s innovative areas don’t exist outside of fantasy.
One man's fantasy is another man's reality. We shall see in a couple of months/years. One thing I don't understand is if you are not interested in investing in Tesla, then why are you here?
I started investing in Tesla in 2016 and it’s treated me very well. Once it got to around a trillion dollar market cap I figured most of the easy money has been made. Growth from here is unproven and there is no reason for me to believe Tesla has an advantage on autonomous driving or robots. It would need to absolutely dominate these categories to live into its valuation and I have seen a lot of promises without much follow through.
I’m curious what makes you think Tesla will dominate these areas in the future? And also curious what makes you think autonomous will be as valuable as people claim? I just don’t see that much value in the way of $ there. Maybe tack on Uber’s valuation? I think the growth story isn’t real and even in best case scenarios would not justify their current market cap.
I'm planning on selling covered calls on the whole lot later this month. Did it this time last year when it was in full meme mode with Musk/Trump appearing (to some people) to be very promising. Get 12% return for sitting and waiting via LEAPS. Inclined to do so again, which would be around the $670 Jan '27 strike as of this writing. When it was at $700 I would've rolled the cc's at that point, but I didn't want the taxable event to happen in 2025.
For a $1T+ company, losing 16% of volume YoY of its main driver of earnings while at the same time facing steep pricing competition is usually significant.
The current valuation is largely based on Teslas ability to profit and disrupt in new markets rather than their existing markets.
With an entire quarter of federal tax credit eliminated and Musk larping a side quest for half the year I’d say it’s much better than everyone thought. Rivian declined 17.6%.
It was an example of company that only sells 100% EVs in their vehicle line up from the same country showing a much greater decline. Rivian sells significantly less units in general. They sold 42k vehicles in total, gee what percentage is that of just Tesla’s vehicle unit sales? It’s 2%.
11,642 "other deliveries". Cybertruck, S, and X are in real distress at this point. If this continues, they'll have to write off the entire CT program. Roughly 10k/yr isn't sustainable.
The value of tesla is totally detached from it's current day business and all focused on autonomy hopes and dreams
"Revenue? No, no, no, no. Why would you go after revenue? If you show people revenue, they'll ask 'How much?' And it will never be enough. The company that was the 100x-er becomes the 2x dog. But if you have no revenue, you can say you're pre-revenue and you're a potential pure play."
Haha loved the show!
What show is it? Silicon Valley?
Update: I have confirmed it’s Silicon Valley. Great show but I don’t remember that particular quote.
That is reality when pitching on Sand Hill, might as well be a direct quote
I think it's simpler than that. It started meme-ing a few years ago, and now holders retcon a justification for the price. If enough people believe in something, then that just becomes reality, hence the price.
I actually think if the price was lower, TESLA as a company would do better. I think there's no pressure on Elon to do the obvious basics right (cheaper model, a new Y, better batteries, semi).
I do think 2026 will set the direction for the company though - I hope against hope that he does some of the aforementioned and then FSD almost clicks. But then markets can remain irrational for longer...
Isn't that how stocks work? You believe the company will deliver X, so you buy. You don't believe anymore, you sell. Many people still believe, so the price goes up
The interesting thing with Tesla is that the X keeps changing.
5 years ago the discussion was about millions of Cybertruck reservations, how Tesla's 4680 cells would enable 50% range increase at 50% lower cost per kWh, their upcoming $25k EV, the new Mexico factory, and 20 million vehicles per year by 2030.
Tesla Semi would of course be ramping up soon, plus the 2020 Roadster.
Also that there would be millions of Robotaxis on the road by 2021, that existing HW3 Teslas were capable of earning you money while you sleep on the Tesla network and would be appreciating assets, etc.
These are all things that Tesla and Elon promoted.
Now those things are all passé. Tesla not meeting those goals doesn't matter because we have new shiny things to believe in, like AI investments, Cybercab / Robovan, Optimus humanoid robots, etc.
I agree - but once again, isn't that also how other companies work? sometimes they bet on the wrong horse and it doesn't go right
and time estimations are really hard, specially when you're trying to estimate something you can't compare with anything else you ever made. I face the same problem many times working as a software engineer
Sure, but usually repeatedly betting on the wrong horse or not delivering projected growth doesn't result in increasing share prices.
People have been saying that for years, yet it continues to rise.
It made more sense in 23 when sales were still growing like mad and margins were higher, while the stock was a good bit lower than today.
It's like people have faith in the vision that Tesla has and see the future value in it. Guess there are a lot of us that think like this.
What is that vision today? Bc it seems to change every quarter...
Whatever pumps the stock. Useless robot, sub par robotaxi or the roadster maybe?
Already forgotten about their hamburgers and fast food restaurants, have we?
It's possible the price is affected by the fact that the "richest man in the world" can dump billions into the stock of his own company on the open market, and was able to successfully infiltrate the government to remove any regulatory bodies that would stop him, but you're probably right that its just the retail people holding onto their nominal shares and it's not a fraudulent situation at all.
No, it's the vision. Whatever you made up in your mind is just that. Your imagination.
Correct. Investor here. Tech company, not car company.
Optimus has zero revenue and no clear deployment timeline, Dojo is dead, and 4680 is a flop with an unclear future — they're far behind their peers as a tech company too. About all there is to hedge with is FSD, and even that's in a very precarious position.
All that to say: Right now Tesla the tech company isn't looking so hot either.
I just got a MY and the FSD is absolutely incredible. They are so so close, even in snowy conditions. It's massively undervalued IMO.
The taxi is in an accident on average every 40,000 miles. That is nowhere close to a human driver.
That would be like a human driver being in an accident on average once ever 2 years. The stat for humans is once every 15 years.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ninety%E2%80%93ninety_rule
That is why it has taken the last couple of years to get that last 10 percent. It has been past 90 for years. I have FSD for about 1.5 years and it has gone from good to incredible in that time. In my opinion it is 99.9% ready for unsupervised and robotaxi. I'm curious as to how many of you naysayers have even ridden in a Tesla with FSD in the past few months?
99.9% is not even close. That is one accident per 1000 miles. Musk once told the truth and said they are on the march of the 9s. But each 9 is exponentially more difficult to achieve.
Waymo is at that level. They have 150 million miles of paid self driving and now are doing 450,000 paid trips a week. There is a reason Tesla only has 30 Taxis operational and have 5 on the road at any given time. They are at an accident rate of 1 per 40,000 miles. And that is with a supervisor in the seat who has certainly negated some.
That's precisely the problem — 99.9% isn't enough. Safety critical applications mean reliability of 99.99999% or greater. What you think is 90% of the work is just the first 90%. There's an entire other 90% after that first 90%.
Musk actually said something truthfully a few years back. FSD is the march of the 9 now. Each 9 will be incrementally more difficult than the last.
The stat should be disengagement per 100k. Or something to that effect. And even that is questionable as most do not engage it in bad weather to begin.
Standard recoil response only focusing on the negatives, I am shocked. Friendly reminder revenue used to be 100% cars and it’s now 70%.
You are, as always, encouraged to talk about some positives. This is a forum for discussion of TSLA, not a forum for discussion of me.
Yes but the stock price is based on massive growth almost entirely and that has gone away. There is no roadmap to the valuation now and just keeping on hoping it is some other product is not a viable business plan.
Apparently you haven’t been paying attention, I already stated Tesla revenue used to be 100% cars, it’s now 70% cars, that number is going down every single year. Amazing how these posts and articles never compare revenue, they always compare vehicle unit sales while conveniently ignoring 30% of their revenue. That’s without factoring new revenue streams promised.
Except those revenue streams are becoming a larger percentage because... their other streams are declining. The other streams that about 90 percent of their valuation is bases on. More so based on them growing massively.
So by your logic, dropping sales of the cars would even show the other revenue as a larger percentage of their full revenue. Even if that other revenue stream did not change. In what investment world would that be a metric anyone would use???
No, it’s because there are new revenue streams that are growing rapidly. You’re just trolling at this point. Refer energy storage deployment.
It not growing to justify a 1.5 trillion dollar company. And you put out a metric that is positive only if you do not include that their major stream is in decline.
You’re welcome to compare total REVENUE YoY.
Guess you're not an investor then. You're short I assume.
Rule 3) Assume Positive Intent, Don't be Disruptive or Dismissive
Beelining towards an ad hominem on someone because they gave a reply you don't like isn't the move. Try a more substantive response related to the topic of Tesla.
Lol I'm not attacking you by saying you're not an investor. I couldn't care less. I don't agree with what you said. That's all.
The next step for you is to substantively disagree, then. This is a forum for discussion of Tesla — have at it.
Rule 1 says otherwise.
This is an independent community of Redditors invested in the long-term success of Tesla.
Rules: 1) This is a space for Long-Term $TSLA Investors
Rule 3) Assume Positive Intent, Don't be Disruptive or Dismissive
Well I choose not to. You don't get anything more than that hehe
quelle surprise
Funny that you're the one talking about being harrassed when you're the one doing it. Classic projection I guess.
Such a Rollercoaster stock, watch it shoot to 800 this year..
Comparing 2025 vs. 2024:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000162828026000016/exhibit9914.htm
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000162828025000007/exhibit991.htm
For the full year:
Total vehicles for 2025 was 1,636,129. Compared to 2024's 1,789,226. This is an 8.55% decline
Energy storage volume in 2025 was 46.7 GWh. Compared to 2024's 31.4 GWh. This is a 48.7% increase
The question I have is whether B2B sales in Energy will make up for, and eventually exceed, the decline in consumer automotive.
Tesla needs enough cash flow to keep funding the AI product roadmap.
If cash flow dries up and there's no clear path towards general purpose robot AI training, I believe TSLA will lose about 85% of its present market cap
There are so many much larger companies in the energy sector than Tesla that do the same thing with far more experience and factors far larger customer base. This is not some novel market and again, does not scale in growth to somehow match their market valuation.
Oh my god, it's 2016 again? Because they said exactly the same about vehicles back in 2016.
And yet Tesla is still half of what Ford does. I am not sure what your point it. If you did not buy in 2016 (actually before 2022), you have missed the bus by a mile. I did not think it was a particularly bad buy in 2016. But it certainly is now.
Half of what Ford does? Have you seen the market cap bro?
The stock price is not the company.
Auto has a much stronger moat than battery packs. It’s a lot harder to design an entire EV on the back of batteries than an inverter and customer interface for a pack of batteries. It took Tesla about 9-10 years for its auto moat to erode. It had a nice car with good branding a great design language etc. Its battery storage moat is collapsing a lot faster. In Q3 (we don’t have Q4 data yet) both Sungrow and BYD installed more GWh of commercial BESS than Tesla did. Tesla still leads on the consumer front but its already lost its market leadership position on the commercial front. There doesn’t seem to be a route to Tesla regaining market leadership in BESS because its batteries do t have any special feature that alternatives don’t have. In auto FSD is best in class. In battery storage there’s no major features. People just want batteries to battery. And the Chinese can make the batteries cheaper and better. The market is still growing fast enough that losing leadership isn’t yet reflected in downward pressure on sales but that’s not infinite. Growth markets always eventually consolidate - and tend to consolidate around leaders not the ones who lost leadership.
The BESS market is very new, and the Tesla Megapack is a leader in this market. Megapacks are seeing a very fast growth curve, and the new Megablocks should be another hit. Megapacks provide a higher margin than EVs, so represent a better use of batteries. It’s only been a couple of years since the cost of batteries fell to the level where BESS became a more economical alternative to natural gas peaker plants. The projected TAM for BESS over the next several years is huge. Favoring expansion of the Megapack and Megablock business over the EV business right now is smart, given the current limitations in battery availability and reduced incentives for EV production. Opinions will vary, but Tesla Energy has a lot of potential and is growing very fast. It’s worth paying attention to it.
Irrelevant.
Nowhere in my comment did I state that Tesla Energy justifies TSLA's market cap. By itself, Tesla Energy is not worth much.
The only reason Automotive and Energy are important to TSLA, is because these 2 businesses provide the present cash flow that funds Tesla's future AI product roadmap. Other companies being present in these businesses has nothing to do with the fact that both energy and auto (as of Q3 anyways) continue to generate cash flow for Tesla.
Should that cash flow evaporate before Tesla AI has a clear path to high margin profitability, TSLA valuation is likely IMO to collapse 85%.
Profits dropped 70% in 2024. That is really much more relevant IMO. Tesla does not have AI. Or better said, Tesla has a very specific type of AI. Musk in 2023 said if he did not get his billion dollar payouts, he would not start up general AI in Tesla. Than proceeded to start his own AI company Grok. Musk is not going to let Tesla be a competitor to that. (He is getting personally sued for by major investors BTW for resource tunneling and failing fiduciary duties to shareholders).
I do not see Tesla going out of business. They have some good products. But ya an 85% decline in valuation is highly likely over a number of years.
I don't think most TSLA shareholders and parties buying TSLA actually care about current profits.
Current profits matter for mature businesses where there is no expectation of radical change in direction. Proctor & Gamble, Walmart, and Visa are some examples. Tesla's pivot away from mainstream automotive is widely known. Nobody buying the stock is valuing it as an auto only business.
Cash flow matters a lot more than profits for businesses involved in high risk, future-oriented ventures. Profitability is affected by things like depreciation, which are often accounting abstractions (in large part for tax purposes) that do not reflect the daily operations of a business.
Without positive cash flow, there's no money to invest in things like machine learning datacenters or robot production lines.
Tesla's valuation may get into trouble if cash flow dries up.
No cash means no more Cortex training center construction. If the future roadmap evaporates for lack of capital, that's what is IMO likely to crash the stock over a period of time.
Yep. But when profits drop, cash flow dries up. Tesla has no product on the market for radical change of direction. Everyone up till about a year ago said it was their EV division. And now they are say oh that was not it, lets pivot to something else.
Tesla is so overvalued that they can keep diluting the shares and get more capital. Which they should and they have. But Musk compensation packages are depleting that capital they are sitting on. It is all being given to Musk personally and that is before any future compensation packages that are suggested.
Now it is billion spent on project after project and throwing money to the wind. Their biggest claim was the Cybertruck of which everyone said would justify the capitalization and growth. Complete flop. Now there are 5 taxis on the road at any given time. The know if they put 100 out there, FSD is not ready and there will be large accidents and PR disasters they can not hide.
So what do they do? They put a gold painted hand crafted two door car at the end of one of their production runs, take some pictures and hint it is in production (it is not). And when they do run one car on the road, they surround it by unmarked following vehicles, ensure it takes an easy route and gets some influencers to click a few pictures.
Corporate guidance has been a complete joke out of Tesla for a lot of years. Not hitting targets is a bit red flag for any company. More so when 90 percent plus of your valuation is getting in reach of them. Now they have nothing on the horizon anymore and an aging line of vehicle. I say vehicle because they only have only two models no less.
You're making no sense whatsoever.
Do you read the SEC filings? Tesla's capital hoard actually grew from January to September of this year.
Musk's compensation is in stock and options, not capital (cash). This is mostly irrelevant to the current risks faced by Tesla's business.
For 2025:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000162828025018911/tsla-20250331.htm
Q1: 36.99 Billion total cash and short term instruments (money market, instruments like T-Bills)
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000162828025035806/tsla-20250630.htm
Q2: 36.79 Billion total cash and short term instruments
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000162828025045968/tsla-20250930.htm
Q3: 41.65 Billion total cash and short-term instruments
Profitability is down. Cash flow has continued to add to their bank accounts, even with massive expenditures on AI datacenter construction and additional CapEx for the Tesla Semi factory and pilot Bot production line.
The true risk: cash flow situation could reverse for Q4 and future quarters. If cash flow goes negative and the bank balances decline for a few quarters in a row, with no AI profits on the horizon, that's when investors will become far more concerned than they are today.
If you cannot comprehend the financial statements (or even basic accounting principles), you have no understanding of the massive risks TSLA shareholders face.
Why would that be a problem' it seems that TSLA can dilute everyone to infinity without issue. They will just create more stock to finance whatever is the next big things.
The last major secondary offering was in late 2020, around the time TSLA was included in the S&P500. Tesla's underlying automotive business was growing rapidly (and with good margins) back then.
Since then, Tesla has largely self-financed its highly speculative AI project pipeline.
There's no guarantee that the public markets would buy up newly created TSLA shares like it did in 2020.
Batteries will save us!
And the stock soars!
Was it just Tesla that had their sales decline? Or was it a decline in the auto industry as a whole?
EV sales increase 30% worldwide this year
Thanks
It's up 1.8% total as a whole, but its still down 3 million from 2019, so hasnt recovered since pre pandemic.
Is that just ev or total auto sales
Doesn't matter, $600 by end of month
/s or delulu?
Yes
At $600, the market cap is about $2 trillion, one of the qualifiers for Musk’s first tranche in the new pay package. Not really expecting to see it by eom, but wouldn’t be shocked if we did.
Let me get this straight. . .
Tesla is selling fewer cars
They are selling are lower margins
They just lost all their carbon credit subsidies
They just diluted the companies with a massive amount of shares
But the share price is still next to an all-time high?
Even if I wanted to invest in this company. . . it is honestly gambling.
I agree with you that TSLA absolutely is gambling.
The bet is that Tesla will be able to create a general AI architecture that allows them to train robots to do any manual task. Robotaxi is merely a "proof of concept" that this is possible: teach a robot to drive. I don't believe Robotaxi service itself is likely to be worth much.
The money is in training robots to be cooks, construction workers, janitors, shelf stockers, and most any other occupation involving manual labor. The TAM is huge.
My basic take is here:
https://www.reddit.com/r/teslainvestorsclub/comments/1ovcrl9/my_risk_vs_reward_ranges_6070share_to/
I believe that if Tesla succeeds in AI robots, the stock could go to $1,700/share (about 300% gain).
If the AI platform goes nowhere, this is possibly a $60 stock (about 85% loss)
And it doesn't even have to be a perfect AI platform. It has to be just A) good enough and B) commercialized enough, to demolish the entire bottom third of the entire economy. Think of stupid simple things like an Optimus bagging groceries, washing windows, whatever it might be that doesn't require big thought. Then think of the marketplace for something like that, alone, with none of the "this takes over the trades" aspiration. The revenue from that adressable market is stupid to think about
I just laugh when I see the PE ratio is 300. . . It's like we have decided Tesla is the only company that can grow and innovate with those kinds of numbers.
At the price, the PE ratio starts to become irrelevant. Their profits declined 70 percent in 2024. What is the decline this year? They are so close to not making a profit that their PE ratio could go to a billion. Or they may make a loss even and PE has no meaning.
They will have 100% of the markets they innovate in as well
which is?
Yes
what will be the pe after Q4 results?
At some point there is way more money made on the downside..
Timing that is the impossible to predict, but extremely lucrative if you're lucky! If it was at $120 back in April 2024 with delays and declining sales since then, it can easily go back.
Don't try to catch a falling knife.
I think I’m suggesting to throw falling knives?
Just be careful, that's all.
You are a kind and gentle soul- thank you for your concern
That is a reference to buying more stocks on the downward trend to lower your average cost. It has nothing to do with shorting a company.
"But...but... Model Y is the best selling car in the world"
<Tesla fanboy mode off>
Deliveries lower but total quarterly revenues likely to be higher due to growth in energy business line which is also higher margin.
the margin on cars is in the toilet as their entry level models are cannibalising sales of more expensive models.
A kWh stored in a CATL battery pack is the same as a kWh stored in a Tesla battery pack. Tesla have no unique compelling selling point in Storage and Sodium is where that Industry is heading, not LFP or NMC or cylindrical cells.
How far down? Is it 30%? No. Is it even 18%? Don't know, but if it's 10% it's still positive margin. How are the legacy manufacturers doing?
EDIT: I'm talking about margins for EVs.
They aren't valued at 1.5 trillion market cap lol
Market cap at 1.47 trillion. I think that is close enough. Ford has a market cap about 40 billion dollars and is a much bigger company to put it in perspective. And Ford is not seeing the declining sales like Tesla is.
I believe u/ohlayohlay meant that the legacy manufacturers are not worth 1.5 trillion...
Yup
Ya I got what you mean now.
Tesla is 1.5 trillion, legacy isn't...
They are doing ok. Similar margins no less. But they are valued at 50 billion like they should be. Tesla does not have high margins anymore.
Right now Tesla is valued at a rate that would be justified if they sold every car in the world. At the moment they sell about 2% of cars world wide.
Are you talking about gross automotive margins, or actual net margins for the company? Because they aren't even close to those numbers for the latter, and if they are at 10% for gross automotive margins they probably wouldn't be profitable as a company at all.
Which is quite possible. They were very close to margins of the typical car companies in 2024. And they seen a 70 percent decline in profits that year. Since then they have even dropped their prices more which as we know ever drop comes entirely out of profits. There is a good chance Tesla has very little profit this year. Next year is not looking better.
Prices actually didn't drop that much over the course of 2025. Automotive revenue per delivery has looked like this over the past 7 quarters:
Q1 2024: $44,926.45
Q2 2024: $44,774.71
Q3 2024: $43,241.37
Q4 2024: $39,949.96
Q1 2025: $41,484.37
Q2 2025: $43,374.24
Q3 2025: $42,657.50
Basically the refreshed Model Y allowed them to keep pricing relatively high, plus the expiry of the US tax credits made an artificial demand bump in Q3. I expect the Q4 numbers to show a decent drop because of the lack of demand in the US in Q4 along with the introduction of lower cost variants of the Model 3 and Model Y. But they will likely still be profitable in Q4 (barely), and over the course of the first three quarters of 2025 already had net income of $2.95 billion.
2026 will indeed be a very rough year, and they may not be profitable. Without any new models and the existing lineup not getting refreshed, demand is going to continue on a downward trend. Lower volumes, weaker pricing power, and reduced regulatory credits are going to hurt the automotive segment. The robotaxi venture is not going to generate significant revenue and will have high upfront costs. The robot venture won't generate any appreciable revenue this year. The energy segment is continuing to grow and will be very helpful, but unclear if that will be sufficient to offset the losses in the automotive segment. If Q1 shows a big loss I think investors are going to start getting very nervous.
Auto margins by year with chart
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/8753850/
Toyota reported a net profit margin of 8.8% while Tesla reported 5.3% in their most recent report. They are in fact doing much worse than “traditional” manufacturers.
I would assume this is going to take a hit in 2026 too since there was a rush to get rooftop solar by year end to get the 30% credit before it goes away
Most of the energy business isn't coming from residential solar installations, but rather commercial/industrial battery pack & grid installations (eg: AI data centres being a growing slice)
Do we have the breakout on that? I would assume the power wall is extremely popular
Also those credits will go away at the end of 2027 as well i believe
No, power wall is a very small part of the business. Biggest revenue driver is grid.
Powerwall has experience a massive drop in sales and a big problem with liability. Some fire issues resulted in Tesla remotely shutting them down. I think that big market will not be coming back.
All the same, it never really panned out to begin. Is a minute slice of their energy sector. The big stuff that is talked about has much bigger and more established companies doing it already. The exact same stuff but with a lot more years of experience.
This will be revealed end of Jan?
Still getting my head round earnings
29% q4 year over year growth of energy storage (49% up full year) (GWh growth)
Is there a reason for giving GWh growth instead of revenue or profit growth?
Does the GWh scale up faster than revenue growth because newer models of battery packs have higher capacities? If you sell the same number of battery packs for the same cost but the battery pack industry got more competitive and the packs now have to have twice the capacity as what they used to, then you end up with 100% GWh growth and 0% revenue growth… it’s just an example that isn’t necessarily indicative of what is happening but demonstrates why the metric might be flawed for measuring performance of the business.
Revenues are not released yet.
Ah ok, it’ll be interesting to see how revenue aligns with GWh growth, I’m genuinely curious to see since it seems to be both a growing industry in revenues and in capacities for products
Also the available Megapack options remained the same between 2024 and 2025.
Price per kWh of storage has been dropping massively over the past few years. I think it’s about half now.
Yea, for now just deliveries so it’s approximate. Same with GW of energy.
Calls
I sold all my Netflix shares when I saw a 90% decline in their DVD rental business. Trash company.
Legit question: Tesla has consistently missed its FSD self-imposed targets for a decade now; is there an indication that they are being more honest with their future autonomy goals (Optimus, Robotaxi, etc)?
I just haven’t seen a shift in execution that would justify the future-focused valuation.
Most people have made up their minds already and I've found it pointless to convince them one way or the other. 2026 is a massive year for Tesla and it's time to put up or shut up.
So we’re 2025 and 2024…
People have been saying the same thing for several years now.
Yea, they missed their opportunity for FSD mega margins a long time ago. I was invested until around a year ago and that was one of the reasons I ultimately decided to take profits and just put it into QQQ and SPY. No doubt FSD has made great progress and there will be autonomous cybercabs at some point, but they're not going to have the advantage or moat that they would have had they released production FSD a few years ago as promised. Look what's happening with LLMs - there's OpenAI, Gemini, Anthropic, etc and they're essentially all the same. No one has a moat. Same thing will happen with autonomous driving. Yes there's a hardware component, but other companies will catch up there too.
Everyone says Waymo can never scale, google doesn't manufacture cars, etc. But I don't think that's their end game. They're running the vehicles themselves right now because they need to have complete control while it's in development. Once it hits wide release though, I think they're gonna partner with car companies and/or Uber/Lyft to retrofit the cars with whatever sensor suite they need and roll it out that way. Even if it's a $10k retrofit, that's still a lot cheaper than needing a driver in every ride.
Tesla might have a brief period where they're the only major player in town but others won't be far behind and it'll be like airline pricing - a race to the bottom where consumers win and shareholders lose. I'd rather be the consumer than the shareholder. Not to mention Elon's tendency to go off his rocker, piss everyone off and cause a 70% drawdown for no reason. I was fine stomaching a 70% drawdown at $20 a share knowing a 10 bagger was definitely on the table. At $500 / share, a 70% drawdown is unacceptable to me. That actually affects FSD too, there are a lot of people who simply will never get in a Tesla cybercab because they hate Elon so much, so they'll wait for the Waymo or whatver else there is.
Will it be?
One thing has always confused me about the autonomous cab model - the driver isn't actually that big of a cost, in the scheme of things.
One of the biggest reasons Uber et all blew up so fast and annihilated taxi companies is fleet management, not labor cost. Uber drivers are not paid much... and they provide all the necessary capital investment at no charge.
A lot of uber drivers actually lose money when you account for running costs and depreciation. The secret sauce at uber and most other delivery gig work companies is the free fleet maintained at owner expense. They buy the car, they handle service, they manage insurance claims, they clean and wash the fleet, and they do all of that for free.
It would not be a 10k retrofit to make a car waymo ready lol. It would be drastically, drastically more. How many 8 dollar cab rides are you going to get out of the life of that hardware and that vehicle? How many staff are you going to have to hire to handle lost items/customer service/cleaning/maintenance/etc?
And then if fully autonomous cabs are actually solved, if there's any competition in the marketplace the price will be incredibly responsive to competitive price pressure.
The rideshare space is insanely low margin and employees subsidize almost all capital costs for free. FSD is really amazing technology, but I see it being much, much more useful in trucking and as a premium add on than I do as an immediate Uber killer.
> there are a lot of people who simply will never get in a Tesla cybercab because they hate Elon so much, so they'll wait for the Waymo or whatver else there is.
not if it's $15 vs $3, if what I'm seeing in san francisco is the plan
If one of the airlines could build their own airplanes for half the cost that did not need a crew, what do you think would happen to the other airlines?
14.2.2.2 is honestly amazing. You can finally apply all the adjectives Whole Mars spewed for version 10 to this. It’s too bad the head of the company has no credibility outside his bubble, because they finally delivered.
But yet the Taxis are experience accidents reported by Tesla every 40,000 miles. And that is with a safety driver that has most certainly negated a few. Humans are about 500,000 miles.
It’s really too bad they over promised for some many years. I haven’t driven a Tesla with the latest FSD, I did drive an early version that was impressive but didn’t feel solid enough to trust.
I hope they make it! I feel this company is over valued but could be a major source of good in the world.
I’m pretty sure Netflix didn’t lose net subscribers, they just switched to the higher margin streaming business. That’s the part missing from your analogy, Tesla’s innovative areas don’t exist outside of fantasy.
One man's fantasy is another man's reality. We shall see in a couple of months/years. One thing I don't understand is if you are not interested in investing in Tesla, then why are you here?
I started investing in Tesla in 2016 and it’s treated me very well. Once it got to around a trillion dollar market cap I figured most of the easy money has been made. Growth from here is unproven and there is no reason for me to believe Tesla has an advantage on autonomous driving or robots. It would need to absolutely dominate these categories to live into its valuation and I have seen a lot of promises without much follow through.
I’m curious what makes you think Tesla will dominate these areas in the future? And also curious what makes you think autonomous will be as valuable as people claim? I just don’t see that much value in the way of $ there. Maybe tack on Uber’s valuation? I think the growth story isn’t real and even in best case scenarios would not justify their current market cap.
Meh, I'm still holding for first dibs on the SpaceX IPO.
Do we get first dibs?
This stock will drop like a rock on a bad economy.
Were you around doing COVID? Remember how people would stop buying expensive things like cars during the end of the world?
The stock went up every single day for six months 🤗
The federal money printer went into overdrive during COVID. I feel that wasn't a true long term recession.
It will again if the economy goes south.
We should have just let the recession happen... Much better than what we're living in now.
I've been invested since the stock was just $10 per share and honestly I have no idea what it's going to do.
I'm planning on selling covered calls on the whole lot later this month. Did it this time last year when it was in full meme mode with Musk/Trump appearing (to some people) to be very promising. Get 12% return for sitting and waiting via LEAPS. Inclined to do so again, which would be around the $670 Jan '27 strike as of this writing. When it was at $700 I would've rolled the cc's at that point, but I didn't want the taxable event to happen in 2025.
ZIRP go brrr
16% that’s it?
For a $1T+ company, losing 16% of volume YoY of its main driver of earnings while at the same time facing steep pricing competition is usually significant.
The current valuation is largely based on Teslas ability to profit and disrupt in new markets rather than their existing markets.
guidance is way lower
“For the full year, Tesla’s deliveries fell 8.6% to 1.64 million from 1.79 million in 2024.”
Reddit promised us it would be a 70% drop this year
A decline of 8.6% is objectively bad, no matter how you try to spin it
With an entire quarter of federal tax credit eliminated and Musk larping a side quest for half the year I’d say it’s much better than everyone thought. Rivian declined 17.6%.
A 10% drop In a market where sales increased 30% globally isnt a win
Tesla is not doing quite as poorly as a company that has 2% of its market cap. Therefore, there's nothing to worry about.
It was an example of company that only sells 100% EVs in their vehicle line up from the same country showing a much greater decline. Rivian sells significantly less units in general. They sold 42k vehicles in total, gee what percentage is that of just Tesla’s vehicle unit sales? It’s 2%.
So you would agree that the responsibility for this poor performance rests with Elon Musk.
Do you believe in personal responsibility? Do you think any company should tolerate subpar performance from an AWOL employee?
No one did. The only one I keep seeing repeat this tired strawman is you.