He must've had the longest odds to the win the season and yet he overcame that to win. Does anyone even come close to that in terms of pregame big targets somehow winning.
I think Tony was right in saying some of the players on that season were LIONS while others were HYENAS. He was clearly one of the lions but I don't think he was the #1 Lion on everyone's hit list.
Yeah, I think that was part of the goal of his initial set-up, where he was working closely with Sarah and Sandra, two other players with high threat levels (Many people pre-game expressed fear of working with Sarah). He also wanted to work with people like Jeremy, Kim, and Tyson (potentially also Amber). I don't think he ideally wanted to be the highest threat player left after Kim went, but he and Sarah had such control at that point it wasn't much of a risk.
While Jeremy often gets credited the most for the shield strategy from Cambodia, and he deserves a ton of credit for how he structured his alliances to insulate him as a threat. A major reason Tony flipped on his alliance twice and went right back in Cagayan was he wanted Spencer and Tasha around because they were a distraction for his alliance as a threat to win, which kept eyes off Tony. If they just straight up pagoned them, he's likely to be taken out before getting to FTC.
lol he was clearly one of the hyenas... they rode the line and waited for all the high threat level people to get voted out. tony was maybe mid pack in terms of threat. If they ran it back he would be top 3 on the list. There's so much of his post WaW threat level getting into this.
He def came in with a high crazy level, but like his win was not something people probably thought was repeatable, and he showed that when he crashed and burned on Gamechangers.
That season was one of the worst ever Survivor seasons ever. Poorly run, 2 x extra women overall to allow a female alliance to take control (which is exactly what happened).
Parvati did have numerous advantages on that season but she still would've had the biggest target other than Tony going into that season. She's a valid answer to OP's question regardless of what you think of her game.
A numbers advantage doesn’t guaruntee an easy win for that gender. SJDS had 2 extra men, and even managed to vote 2 women off at the first 2 tribals, and then we got an all-woman final 3
Tony didn’t have even the top 5 longest odds of that season. It had Rob, Amber, Parv, and Sandra on for one, and there were some one time winners with more clout/higher threat levels than Tony did. Someone like Kim had the deck stacked against them way more than Tony did
But they arent saying hes the biggest threat of thay season. They are saying he's the biggest target that went on to win the season in which he is a huge target. So Yul and Kim didnt win 2x right? So Parv might count and Rob and Sandra since they won a 2nd season.
They are saying he's the biggest target that went on to win the season in which he is a huge target.
In that case I'd say Ben in HvHvH was the biggest target who managed to still win. The season was built around his casting and from day 1 people recognized him as THE hero. This played out throughout the game where he was pretty much on own post-merge.
Rob in RI might qualify too, but I'm not sure he was ever a target.
Right but if Tony was around the middle of the pack in terms of threat level, that's just like an average winner, tons of first time winners have come into the game with a middle of the road threat level.
Tony was just a big of a threat going into WaW as those 5, actually maybe other then amber, she was probably the only person imo playing with a 0% chance to wins, not because she played the biggest game but no one would have let them make even to a tribe swap.
No one argued Tony having the worst odds. Almost everyone in agreement with Wendell as the favorite. The big disagreements were Sarah and Ben, which I ended up being on the right side of (the Ben part is debatable but at least he went far)
Tony was definitely a top 5 target going in, not just because he won before, but because he's viewed as a highly chaotic player.
If someones gonna be targeted in a returnee season its usually because of the chaos they bring or how strong they are as a player. Tony brings a lot of both to the table.
He definitely had a big target, hence the “lions and hyenas” strategy. He was still a god-tier winner from a more modern season, on the level of Kim. I’d easily argue he had a top 5 target
He was still a god-tier winner from a more modern season, on the level of Kim
I sincerely didn't know people ranked his first win this high! I mean, I've always liked Tony and I was glad he won, but Woo objectively shouldn't have taken him. Tony's game was in someone else's hands. Kim, on the other hand, had a stranglehold on the game with her 4 immunity wins (and an idol she never used). She won as many immunities in her first season than Tony in his three seasons combined.
Don't get me wrong, I really like Tony! His deception with the (widely unpopular and overpowered) Tyler Perry Idol was a big reason he made it to the end...but if it had not been a TP idol, would he have made it to the end?
Him convincing Woo to take him is part of why he was seen as such a good winner. He got a little screwed by a surprise final two and still managed to convince someone to gift him a million dollars.
Look up any list of ranking top winner games, Cagayan is almost always top 10. Him and Kim were seen as a similar caliber of winner going into WaW. Then he played a top 3 if not top 1 all time game
Him convincing Woo to take him is part of why he was seen as such a good winner. He got a little screwed by a surprise final two and still managed to convince someone to gift him a million dollars.
Agreed! It was a demonstration of strong social gameplay.
Look up any list of ranking top winner games, Cagayan is almost always top 10
I feel like Tony is (deservedly) ranked 1 (where I would put him), but Cagayan moves all over the place on lists (from around 10 or so to in the 20s)
Off the top of my head (in no order)
Kim
JT
Cochran
Yul
Earl
Tony (WaW)
Parvati
Todd
Tom - Undeniable leader in a tribe that never lost pre-merge and dominated post-merge
Chris - Single-handedly flipped an all-girls alliance without idols or advantages. I get that others wouldn't put him in a top 12, but Im a huge fan of that season
Jeremy - All returning players and received 10-0-0 vote
Rob - I wouldn't personally include it, but others would so I'm gonna toss it in here.
I wonder, if Tony didn't win WaW but went out middle of the pack, would we look back at Cagayan the same? Or is there some revisionist history?
Still, to be clear - I would put Cagayan as one of my favorite seasons and Tony as a top 12 winner (around 12) if that was the only season he won. I'd put Kim in top 5 with a pretty sizeable gap.
RHAP ranks his Cagayan win at 12 so I guess I'm in line with that
I don’t think WaW can be anywhere outside of top 3. Most stacked cast of all time. You have Jeremy credit for a cast of returnees but Kim gets the top all time spot for playing against one of the worst casts ever? Both of Tony’s wins were against strong casts, Cagayan was a stronger all newbie season and WaW was the strongest all time cast, and he absolutely dominated the season. There’s no way I have Yul over it. For me it’s a toss up between JT and WaW Tony for best game of all time.
I don’t think he did it purposely like it was a long term strategy, that’d be silly, but I do think it became very very quickly to Tony that no one was gonna give him a shot. So he just became reckless and actually did survive a vote didn’t he?
In the preseason I remember people referring to Rob & Amber, Sandra, Parvati as the “big 4” targets. Not sure why Tony would be 20th, especially after Game Changers where people weren’t really thinking of him as a great player.
I don’t mean Dalton Ross’s thing, I’m talking about the fans and threat power rankings. It was pretty universally agreed upon here that one half of Rob & Amber was dead on arrival.
(Also I went back to refresh my memory and 5 people wrote Sarah. Which IS a decent amount but definitely not “most”)
Tony just decided to come back like a lunatic, I highly doubt people were on the island especially previous winners were rating game changers Tony at all. He had just a big of target of rob,Kim, and all the others,
I'd say the thing is, being a big target on a cast like WaW isn't that big, because you have so many comparable threats around you. It's not like winners on seasons like All-Stars or GC, where there is a vast disparity between JT, Tony and Sandra and alot of the cast outside like Cirie, Malcolm, Ozzy, and Aubry. Like the gap between players like Sandra, Tony and JT when it comes to threat level to people like Troyzan, Brad, Beast Mode Cowboy, etc is huge. Even the gap between Tony/Sandra and the mid-tier threats on that cast like Andrea is massive.
Like, who on WaW had the lowest threat level entering? Michele, Danni, Denise, Ben, Sophie, Adam, Nick etc. probably. You put them in almost any other cast they are immediately viewed as top 4 or 5 threats. Like the mid-tier threat on this cast is like Wendell or Ethan who has pretty much every tool to be good at Survivor all-around.
When like 50% of the cast has a massive target like Rob, Sandra, Parv, Tony, Kim, Jeremy, Amber (due to proximity to Rob) and Tyson, alongside Tony and Sarah, no one outside really Sandra, Amber/Boston Rob, and Parv have an outsized target. Tony is really only like 3 to 5 on his own starting tribe in threat level with Tyson and Sarah, and even then Yul is also viewed as a massive threat.
In hindsight he was a much bigger target. But you have to put yourself in the context of the time. Tony was coming off a HUGE flop in Gamechangers where he got voted off 2nd. Players like Jeremy, Sarah, Tyson, Natalie, Parvati, Boston Rob, Amber, etc., all had much bigger targets coming into the season.
Parvati on micronesia was a huge target, not becuse of her threat level (she was a nobody in her og season) but because she had beef with jonathan penner who had a 4 person pregame alliance
The USA was a minority alliance and girls? Like a free alliance because they share a gender? I think it takes skill to capitalize on something like that. It’s only ever worked once (unless you count starting tribes divided by gender) and she was at the center of that one as well.
Maybe I’m misremembering but wasn’t Tony pretty low on most people’s lists? The cast had people like Rob, Amber, Parvati, Jeremy, Kim. Tons of people who were considered just as if not more dangerous.
By default he might’ve had the biggest target, but that’s because the winners of returnee seasons have generally been middle of the pack their first time. With the exception of Sandra, the returnee winner with the next best finish in their previous game was like Parvati with 5th
The fans may have been underestimating Tony but the cast certainly wasn't. His Cagayan game was treacherous and his closest ally Sarah had the top target going into the game
Did Tony even enter as in the top 5 that season? Everyone is a winner, Boston Rob, Sandra, Parv, Kim, Jeremy, Tyson, Amber, etc. are on the island.
Sandra probably had an equal target on HvV's as one of 4 winners on the island, but to avoid an All Star situation, the initial alliance on the Villains side was all the people who made FTC (Rob, Russell, Sandra, Parv, Courtney, and Danielle).
WaW helped Tony a lot because even though he's a big personality, he was a winner who flamed out on another season. His performance on game changers probably lowered his threat level significantly.
As mentioned by other people in this thread, people like Sandra, Boston Rob, Parv were the obvious big targets for reputation reasons (and Sandra who's already won 2x).
There are also people with decent to great winner reputations that haven't played again so I'd by default put them over Tony as a target (Kim, Michele, Wendall, Yul, Denise, Sophie) - they are more wild cards, but they are relatively well regarded as winners.
Then there were players who won seasons with other returnees that I'd consider bigger threats too (Jeremy, Tyson, Sarah).
Even the 'weaker' returnees like Amber, Nick, Adam, and Ben would still be wild cards, they could perform better, but they haven't proved they would be weak players (they still won a season!)
This except Michele having a “decent to great” winner reputation. She came into WaW bitter and desperate to prove herself because she was widely regarded as one of the worst winners and iirc got tons of death threats from fans for winning over Aubry
Yeah I thought about that. I think Michele had an elite social game so other survivors probably knew that. She had a low reputation with the fans because of the edit.
But I could argue some fans still don't give Sandra the respect she deserves.
I'd say Boston Rob, his threat level was pretty high going into RI. Sandra probably also for HvV had a bigger target than Tony for WaW I think. RI was less impressive because most of the cast were weak players, the opposite of WaW but that doesn't mean he didn't have a big target. HvV is the strongest win in survivor IMO, but it's controversial since people believe Parvati should have won and Russell was more in "control" of the game.
Tony’s target… wasn’t that big. He had come off a total flop on gamechangers, and his Cagayan win, while impressive, was seen as super luck dependent and erratic. I think many players wrote him off until it was too late
The biggest target, if we're talking about who the contestants mentioned most as the biggest threat pre-game, was Sarah. It was so wild to watch her run the table with Tony against all odds, apparently.
Boston Rob is the other obvious answer, but his cast just didn't process it. Going into any given Survivor season, if only two players were returnees, and one of them was Boston Rob, he's easily going to have the biggest target
Idk how you thought Tony had the biggest target in WaW. In a season with all winners Tony’s winning season wasn’t flawless and he was booted early the season before WaW. His appearance in Game Changers made his threat level super low coming to WaW so. Am I missing something? Kim, Sandra and Parv are bigger targets than Tony.
I mean day one is as close as we can see the preseason onscreen. The first thing Penner said about Parvati on Micronesia is that she's a threat who needs to go
Amber is mostly targeted because of Rob. And who the hell would have Tyson above Tony? 3 tries to win and his HvV blunder is far worse than Tony in Game Changers
Sandra had to be considered a huge target,UNLESS, you thought they would not vote for her to win a 3rd time.
Doesn’t matter what you think of her gameplay as the only 2 time winner, that put a target on her. I think this was tempered a bit because the players, mostly, weren’t afraid of her targeting them or didn’t respect her game.
In WAW, obviously the holy trinity of Rob, Parvati, and Sandra had huge targets and in preseason interviews everyone was afraid of Kim and Sarah (who almost won).
I'd say in terms of US Survivor, the answer is easily Rob in Redemption Island. If we're only counting full returnee seasons then it'd probably be Jeremy. Tony was surrounded by so many big players that it was easy for him to go under the radar despite people knowing how threatening he was. Jeremy only really had the likes of Kass, Spencer, Stephen and Joe above him on people's list of targets
Both him and Mike had huge targets on their backs in the post-merge and still came out on top, and they're both discounted/disliked for it, so nobody cares to include them in these convos.
I decided not to include him as most people hadn’t actually seen his season yet as it hadn’t aired when All Stars was filmed. He was a big name and huge threat to us, the viewers, but 75% of the cast didn’t know about him. So I don’t think it’s a fair comparison.
Weird situation but probably Cochran? there weren't many targets on caramoan tbf. but like, tony wasnt that high of a target on WaW
Sandra, Parvati, Rob (And by extension amber), Jeremy, Natalie anderson and especiallg Sarah had bigger targets than him. He's eighth
Amber - Very low threat level, the wtf pick of the cast.
Parvati - Very low threat level, the wtf pick of the cast
Sandra - Medium threat level, good at playing UTR but there was some anti winner sentiment and she was seen as a challenge liability for some of the cast
Rob - Regarded as one of the best at the time of RI, one of the biggest reputations of all time. Slightly helped by his early exit and positive edit in HvV.
Cochran - Low threat level, influential but not great player in his first season and very well connected on the season
Tyson - Medium threat level, didn't really crystalize much after they voted out his girlfriend.
Jeremy - Low threat level, played a pretty dominant game his first time but left the game pretty early and was surrounded by more legendary/intimidating figures (by design)
Sarah - Low threat level, from a pretty popular season but most people viewed her as meh at the game.
Tony - High threat level, def one of the biggest of the new schoolers who hadn't won a returnee season. Seen as a dominant, chaotic wild card. Also on a season with Sarah, a close real life friend who had perhaps the largest new school target on her back.
Parvati - Seen as the best player of all time going into AU vs the world. No clue how they let her wiggle through, especially since she started the game with a guaranteed number 1 ally.
The two highest to me are Parvati in WaW and Rob in RI. Both of which were regarded as god tier players and were able to utilize passive players and close, weaker allies to navigate to the end and win.
Sure! It’s something that has a shelf life…particularly when said season aired five years ago and you’re in a subreddit which was specifically created to talk about the show.
I think Tony was right in saying some of the players on that season were LIONS while others were HYENAS. He was clearly one of the lions but I don't think he was the #1 Lion on everyone's hit list.
That’s such a good point, because that’s that’s kinda how that game shook out,
Yeah, I think that was part of the goal of his initial set-up, where he was working closely with Sarah and Sandra, two other players with high threat levels (Many people pre-game expressed fear of working with Sarah). He also wanted to work with people like Jeremy, Kim, and Tyson (potentially also Amber). I don't think he ideally wanted to be the highest threat player left after Kim went, but he and Sarah had such control at that point it wasn't much of a risk.
While Jeremy often gets credited the most for the shield strategy from Cambodia, and he deserves a ton of credit for how he structured his alliances to insulate him as a threat. A major reason Tony flipped on his alliance twice and went right back in Cagayan was he wanted Spencer and Tasha around because they were a distraction for his alliance as a threat to win, which kept eyes off Tony. If they just straight up pagoned them, he's likely to be taken out before getting to FTC.
Yeah, he kept Jeremy around as long as he could for that reason. From then, he had worn the entire field into submission.
lol he was clearly one of the hyenas... they rode the line and waited for all the high threat level people to get voted out. tony was maybe mid pack in terms of threat. If they ran it back he would be top 3 on the list. There's so much of his post WaW threat level getting into this.
parv on au vs world is the real answer here.
He def came in with a high crazy level, but like his win was not something people probably thought was repeatable, and he showed that when he crashed and burned on Gamechangers.
Parvati on Australian Survivor.
Tony, Rob, George, and David all had bigger targets that season
Rob put that target on himself day 1 so wouldn’t count him
That had big targets yea but Parvati’s was still significantly bigger lmfao
Parvati hadn’t made the merge since 2010 while George and David were coming off some of the most dominant games in survivor history.
Not that relevant as they were gone premerge (as was Tony, but he was on Parvati's tribe so that is relevant).
By the merge Parv was 100% the biggest target
Well yes Parvati also had deal or no deal island target with david and the more women on the season so Parvati’s target is still bigger
Dondi had not aired before the AuVTW season was filmed. Nobody knew about Dondi until Parv brought it up to Rob.
I think George and Tony had the biggest targets because David and Parvati both actually came in with really good starting hands
Take Rob out of the list, but agree with the others
Yeah true
David’s threat level was astronomical.
That season was one of the worst ever Survivor seasons ever. Poorly run, 2 x extra women overall to allow a female alliance to take control (which is exactly what happened).
Massive asterix on that season win.
It was a good season. She got a massive starting advantage but the season was still fun.
Parvati did have numerous advantages on that season but she still would've had the biggest target other than Tony going into that season. She's a valid answer to OP's question regardless of what you think of her game.
Yeah, Luke is a strong, powerful woman.
cope
It was actually a better season than any of the US ones since the DvG MvGenX era.
A numbers advantage doesn’t guaruntee an easy win for that gender. SJDS had 2 extra men, and even managed to vote 2 women off at the first 2 tribals, and then we got an all-woman final 3
Doesn't guarantee but definitely helps.
It doesn't have to be fair to be entertaining. I don't rate Parvati's win, but I definitely enjoyed watching the season quite a bit.
Casual take
Hard agree
Tony didn’t have even the top 5 longest odds of that season. It had Rob, Amber, Parv, and Sandra on for one, and there were some one time winners with more clout/higher threat levels than Tony did. Someone like Kim had the deck stacked against them way more than Tony did
Agreed. I think people are thinking of Tony as already being a 2x winner in WaW. The reality was he was a winner/second boot.
Definitive bigger targets: 1. Sandra 2. Rob 3. Kim 4. Yul 5. Parvati
At best he was 6, but I’m not sure why he would’ve been a bigger target than Jeremy, Adam, Wendell or Tyson
Nobody ever had Adam or Wendell as a threat lmao
Yea, true
But they arent saying hes the biggest threat of thay season. They are saying he's the biggest target that went on to win the season in which he is a huge target. So Yul and Kim didnt win 2x right? So Parv might count and Rob and Sandra since they won a 2nd season.
In that case I'd say Ben in HvHvH was the biggest target who managed to still win. The season was built around his casting and from day 1 people recognized him as THE hero. This played out throughout the game where he was pretty much on own post-merge.
Rob in RI might qualify too, but I'm not sure he was ever a target.
Right but if Tony was around the middle of the pack in terms of threat level, that's just like an average winner, tons of first time winners have come into the game with a middle of the road threat level.
Well name who fits better - thats what OP is asking for.
Tony was just a big of a threat going into WaW as those 5, actually maybe other then amber, she was probably the only person imo playing with a 0% chance to wins, not because she played the biggest game but no one would have let them make even to a tribe swap.
People are underestimating Tony's target as a key ally of Sarah, who had a top 5 target on her back that season, which people seem to forget.
We saw Natalie booted first because of her connection to Jeremy, but Tony was able to avoid that fate.
He went last in our pool due to his Game Changers erratic game. I had second last pick.
I remember saying “well Sandra has no chance but Tony sure ain’t winning.”
Doubt I could find it now but there was an article before WaW giving each player betting odds and Tony did in fact have the longest odds to win.
I wrote it if that’s the one you’re thinking of:
https://shmalvey7.medium.com/handicapping-the-field-of-survivor-season-40-58713b4a0892
Yup lol that was it, thanks!
Outside of Tony, lost was pretty good in hindsight! Sarah, Nick, Natalie, Ben, Michelle, Jeremy you all had top 8
I’ll link the thread too since it’s relevant to this discussion: https://www.reddit.com/r/survivor/s/xZcs2xIkur
No one argued Tony having the worst odds. Almost everyone in agreement with Wendell as the favorite. The big disagreements were Sarah and Ben, which I ended up being on the right side of (the Ben part is debatable but at least he went far)
Tony was definitely a top 5 target going in, not just because he won before, but because he's viewed as a highly chaotic player.
If someones gonna be targeted in a returnee season its usually because of the chaos they bring or how strong they are as a player. Tony brings a lot of both to the table.
Why do you think Tony had a bigger target than any of the other players?
He definitely had a big target, hence the “lions and hyenas” strategy. He was still a god-tier winner from a more modern season, on the level of Kim. I’d easily argue he had a top 5 target
I sincerely didn't know people ranked his first win this high! I mean, I've always liked Tony and I was glad he won, but Woo objectively shouldn't have taken him. Tony's game was in someone else's hands. Kim, on the other hand, had a stranglehold on the game with her 4 immunity wins (and an idol she never used). She won as many immunities in her first season than Tony in his three seasons combined.
Don't get me wrong, I really like Tony! His deception with the (widely unpopular and overpowered) Tyler Perry Idol was a big reason he made it to the end...but if it had not been a TP idol, would he have made it to the end?
I rank Kim's OW win way above Tony's Cagayan.
Him convincing Woo to take him is part of why he was seen as such a good winner. He got a little screwed by a surprise final two and still managed to convince someone to gift him a million dollars.
Look up any list of ranking top winner games, Cagayan is almost always top 10. Him and Kim were seen as a similar caliber of winner going into WaW. Then he played a top 3 if not top 1 all time game
Agreed! It was a demonstration of strong social gameplay.
I feel like Tony is (deservedly) ranked 1 (where I would put him), but Cagayan moves all over the place on lists (from around 10 or so to in the 20s)
Off the top of my head (in no order)
I wonder, if Tony didn't win WaW but went out middle of the pack, would we look back at Cagayan the same? Or is there some revisionist history?
Still, to be clear - I would put Cagayan as one of my favorite seasons and Tony as a top 12 winner (around 12) if that was the only season he won. I'd put Kim in top 5 with a pretty sizeable gap.
RHAP ranks his Cagayan win at 12 so I guess I'm in line with that
Yul and Parvati’s wins belonged to Ozzy and Cirie before the f3 and f2 twists so I wouldn’t put them top 10
I don’t think WaW can be anywhere outside of top 3. Most stacked cast of all time. You have Jeremy credit for a cast of returnees but Kim gets the top all time spot for playing against one of the worst casts ever? Both of Tony’s wins were against strong casts, Cagayan was a stronger all newbie season and WaW was the strongest all time cast, and he absolutely dominated the season. There’s no way I have Yul over it. For me it’s a toss up between JT and WaW Tony for best game of all time.
I think you missed where I said, “in no order”
I did haha. I see a numbered list and I assume it’s ordered. My bad!
No problem! Tony in WaW is definitely top 3 for me too
Tony convincing Woo to take him to the end is a plus to his game, not a minus, similar to Tina
Also Tony won his 4 immunities all in the same season
Agreed. It is a plus. That said, we do agree that Woo shouldn’t have taken him, right?
Y'all really forget Game Changers huh?
No I didn’t. But that doesn’t change what I said. He was still seen as a huge player with a big target.
Adam, Nick, Ben, Wendell, Sophie, Michele and Amber were the only ones who weren't seen as huge players with big targets.
I disagree. I think many of the old school players like Ethan, Danni, and Yul weren’t seen as massive threats. I don’t think Denise was either.
he didn't
Tony purposefully screwed up Game Changers to lower his threat level for WaW.
That was poorly thought out since they didn't even decide to do WaW till a couple years later
I don’t think he did it purposely like it was a long term strategy, that’d be silly, but I do think it became very very quickly to Tony that no one was gonna give him a shot. So he just became reckless and actually did survive a vote didn’t he?
It would be silly, which is very on brand for Tony.
No cmon..
Why would you say Tony had the biggest target? He went out very very early in his previous appearance.
Because of his huge target.
Tony had a massive target pre winners at war. Everyone had him 20/20 on their preseason power rankings,( Myself included).
In the preseason I remember people referring to Rob & Amber, Sandra, Parvati as the “big 4” targets. Not sure why Tony would be 20th, especially after Game Changers where people weren’t really thinking of him as a great player.
You are misremembering. Most people wanted to target Sarah first.
I don’t mean Dalton Ross’s thing, I’m talking about the fans and threat power rankings. It was pretty universally agreed upon here that one half of Rob & Amber was dead on arrival.
(Also I went back to refresh my memory and 5 people wrote Sarah. Which IS a decent amount but definitely not “most”)
Sarah was the number one pick amongst the players as the biggest target. That is what "most" means
But the players didn't. The most common name amongst them in the pre-season as "the biggest threat" was Sarah.
Tony just decided to come back like a lunatic, I highly doubt people were on the island especially previous winners were rating game changers Tony at all. He had just a big of target of rob,Kim, and all the others,
I'd say the thing is, being a big target on a cast like WaW isn't that big, because you have so many comparable threats around you. It's not like winners on seasons like All-Stars or GC, where there is a vast disparity between JT, Tony and Sandra and alot of the cast outside like Cirie, Malcolm, Ozzy, and Aubry. Like the gap between players like Sandra, Tony and JT when it comes to threat level to people like Troyzan, Brad, Beast Mode Cowboy, etc is huge. Even the gap between Tony/Sandra and the mid-tier threats on that cast like Andrea is massive.
Like, who on WaW had the lowest threat level entering? Michele, Danni, Denise, Ben, Sophie, Adam, Nick etc. probably. You put them in almost any other cast they are immediately viewed as top 4 or 5 threats. Like the mid-tier threat on this cast is like Wendell or Ethan who has pretty much every tool to be good at Survivor all-around.
When like 50% of the cast has a massive target like Rob, Sandra, Parv, Tony, Kim, Jeremy, Amber (due to proximity to Rob) and Tyson, alongside Tony and Sarah, no one outside really Sandra, Amber/Boston Rob, and Parv have an outsized target. Tony is really only like 3 to 5 on his own starting tribe in threat level with Tyson and Sarah, and even then Yul is also viewed as a massive threat.
Sure, but everyone was targeting previous winners in WAW.
So everyone was targeting everyone?
In hindsight he was a much bigger target. But you have to put yourself in the context of the time. Tony was coming off a HUGE flop in Gamechangers where he got voted off 2nd. Players like Jeremy, Sarah, Tyson, Natalie, Parvati, Boston Rob, Amber, etc., all had much bigger targets coming into the season.
Parvati on micronesia was a huge target, not becuse of her threat level (she was a nobody in her og season) but because she had beef with jonathan penner who had a 4 person pregame alliance
HvV Parvati too
AU vs World Parvati
Literally, Every Parv
I mean she had 2 free alliances w the usa + with the girls right after starting, not to discredit her tho, she did great
The USA was a minority alliance and girls? Like a free alliance because they share a gender? I think it takes skill to capitalize on something like that. It’s only ever worked once (unless you count starting tribes divided by gender) and she was at the center of that one as well.
I mean the world tribe wasn't a 3v4, it was a 3v1v1v1v1. The Americans had the advantage
It also had a Cirie stan in Lisa so we could consider it a 4v1v1v1 lmao
I mean yea but she didnt win
She should’ve I think.
Oop my bbb
Okay, but once she survived that she (along with Amanda) were considered the lowest threats.
She was PENNER's target and his alone. Similar to Francesca on Caramoan
Maybe I’m misremembering but wasn’t Tony pretty low on most people’s lists? The cast had people like Rob, Amber, Parvati, Jeremy, Kim. Tons of people who were considered just as if not more dangerous.
By default he might’ve had the biggest target, but that’s because the winners of returnee seasons have generally been middle of the pack their first time. With the exception of Sandra, the returnee winner with the next best finish in their previous game was like Parvati with 5th
Rob had a second place finish before he won.
The fans may have been underestimating Tony but the cast certainly wasn't. His Cagayan game was treacherous and his closest ally Sarah had the top target going into the game
I mean, are there any other all winner seasons? How can we compare?
Did Tony even enter as in the top 5 that season? Everyone is a winner, Boston Rob, Sandra, Parv, Kim, Jeremy, Tyson, Amber, etc. are on the island.
Sandra probably had an equal target on HvV's as one of 4 winners on the island, but to avoid an All Star situation, the initial alliance on the Villains side was all the people who made FTC (Rob, Russell, Sandra, Parv, Courtney, and Danielle).
Yes, many players, because Tony’s target wasn’t that big in WaW
Tony’s target wasn’t that big considering he was such a flop in Game Changers.
WaW helped Tony a lot because even though he's a big personality, he was a winner who flamed out on another season. His performance on game changers probably lowered his threat level significantly.
As mentioned by other people in this thread, people like Sandra, Boston Rob, Parv were the obvious big targets for reputation reasons (and Sandra who's already won 2x).
There are also people with decent to great winner reputations that haven't played again so I'd by default put them over Tony as a target (Kim, Michele, Wendall, Yul, Denise, Sophie) - they are more wild cards, but they are relatively well regarded as winners.
Then there were players who won seasons with other returnees that I'd consider bigger threats too (Jeremy, Tyson, Sarah).
Even the 'weaker' returnees like Amber, Nick, Adam, and Ben would still be wild cards, they could perform better, but they haven't proved they would be weak players (they still won a season!)
This except Michele having a “decent to great” winner reputation. She came into WaW bitter and desperate to prove herself because she was widely regarded as one of the worst winners and iirc got tons of death threats from fans for winning over Aubry
Yeah I thought about that. I think Michele had an elite social game so other survivors probably knew that. She had a low reputation with the fans because of the edit.
But I could argue some fans still don't give Sandra the respect she deserves.
I'd say Boston Rob, his threat level was pretty high going into RI. Sandra probably also for HvV had a bigger target than Tony for WaW I think. RI was less impressive because most of the cast were weak players, the opposite of WaW but that doesn't mean he didn't have a big target. HvV is the strongest win in survivor IMO, but it's controversial since people believe Parvati should have won and Russell was more in "control" of the game.
Tony’s target… wasn’t that big. He had come off a total flop on gamechangers, and his Cagayan win, while impressive, was seen as super luck dependent and erratic. I think many players wrote him off until it was too late
Cirie on 50
manifesting 🙏
The biggest target, if we're talking about who the contestants mentioned most as the biggest threat pre-game, was Sarah. It was so wild to watch her run the table with Tony against all odds, apparently.
Boston Rob is the other obvious answer, but his cast just didn't process it. Going into any given Survivor season, if only two players were returnees, and one of them was Boston Rob, he's easily going to have the biggest target
Still can't figure out how Boston Rob used the entire redemption island season as his own little dictator fantasy island and got away with the title
Idk how you thought Tony had the biggest target in WaW. In a season with all winners Tony’s winning season wasn’t flawless and he was booted early the season before WaW. His appearance in Game Changers made his threat level super low coming to WaW so. Am I missing something? Kim, Sandra and Parv are bigger targets than Tony.
Mike and Ben had bigger targets for more of the season than Tony in their wins I’d say.
Tony obviously benefitted from having other winners out there like Kim and Jeremy that definitely were seen as the biggest jury threats post merge
Tony's win on W@W was one of the best ever Survivor wins IMO
In OP's defense, Tony by far had the biggest had the biggest target by mid-merge.
But, perception-wise, Parvati started all her returnee seasons with people targeting her practically day one, even Micronesia.
That's not really relevant? OP is specifically talking about before the season started.
I mean day one is as close as we can see the preseason onscreen. The first thing Penner said about Parvati on Micronesia is that she's a threat who needs to go
He wasn't even the biggest target on Winners at War lmao. Parv, Sandra, Rob, Amber, and Tyson were all above him.
In terms of all time Survivor history, every Winner on All Stars, ESPECIALLY Richard.
And Sarah was above ALL of them.
Amber is mostly targeted because of Rob. And who the hell would have Tyson above Tony? 3 tries to win and his HvV blunder is far worse than Tony in Game Changers
That's why I defend that game as one of the best ever he did such a good job at minimizing his threat level
Sandra had to be considered a huge target,UNLESS, you thought they would not vote for her to win a 3rd time.
Doesn’t matter what you think of her gameplay as the only 2 time winner, that put a target on her. I think this was tempered a bit because the players, mostly, weren’t afraid of her targeting them or didn’t respect her game.
In WAW, obviously the holy trinity of Rob, Parvati, and Sandra had huge targets and in preseason interviews everyone was afraid of Kim and Sarah (who almost won).
Coming into Cambodia I want to say Jeremy was probably the biggest target after Spencer, Joe and Kass.
I'd say in terms of US Survivor, the answer is easily Rob in Redemption Island. If we're only counting full returnee seasons then it'd probably be Jeremy. Tony was surrounded by so many big players that it was easy for him to go under the radar despite people knowing how threatening he was. Jeremy only really had the likes of Kass, Spencer, Stephen and Joe above him on people's list of targets
I think Jeremy? I feel like he was a top 5 target that was able to slip UTR by hiding behind Threats #1 and #2 (Joe and Stephen)
I'm not seeing anyone saying Ben, who certainly needs to be in this conversation from his first appearance + idol-gate.
Both him and Mike had huge targets on their backs in the post-merge and still came out on top, and they're both discounted/disliked for it, so nobody cares to include them in these convos.
Parvati on Aus V World.
The Australia All Stars winner was also a top target
I decided not to include him as most people hadn’t actually seen his season yet as it hadn’t aired when All Stars was filmed. He was a big name and huge threat to us, the viewers, but 75% of the cast didn’t know about him. So I don’t think it’s a fair comparison.
Weird situation but probably Cochran? there weren't many targets on caramoan tbf. but like, tony wasnt that high of a target on WaW Sandra, Parvati, Rob (And by extension amber), Jeremy, Natalie anderson and especiallg Sarah had bigger targets than him. He's eighth
Literally the entire favorites tribe was Cochran's friends, it's a huge reason why his win isn't that respected despite being a perfect game
In terms of threat level for returnee winners, I'd go:
Medium/High: Tony, Sandra
Medium/Low: Jeremy
Low: Tyson, Cochran, Parvati
Bottom 3: Sarah, Amber
I didn't rate Rob due to captains seasons having a very different dynamic
In terms of returnee seasons:
Amber - Very low threat level, the wtf pick of the cast. Parvati - Very low threat level, the wtf pick of the cast Sandra - Medium threat level, good at playing UTR but there was some anti winner sentiment and she was seen as a challenge liability for some of the cast Rob - Regarded as one of the best at the time of RI, one of the biggest reputations of all time. Slightly helped by his early exit and positive edit in HvV. Cochran - Low threat level, influential but not great player in his first season and very well connected on the season Tyson - Medium threat level, didn't really crystalize much after they voted out his girlfriend. Jeremy - Low threat level, played a pretty dominant game his first time but left the game pretty early and was surrounded by more legendary/intimidating figures (by design) Sarah - Low threat level, from a pretty popular season but most people viewed her as meh at the game. Tony - High threat level, def one of the biggest of the new schoolers who hadn't won a returnee season. Seen as a dominant, chaotic wild card. Also on a season with Sarah, a close real life friend who had perhaps the largest new school target on her back. Parvati - Seen as the best player of all time going into AU vs the world. No clue how they let her wiggle through, especially since she started the game with a guaranteed number 1 ally.
The two highest to me are Parvati in WaW and Rob in RI. Both of which were regarded as god tier players and were able to utilize passive players and close, weaker allies to navigate to the end and win.
Do you know what a spoiler is????
Sure! It’s something that has a shelf life…particularly when said season aired five years ago and you’re in a subreddit which was specifically created to talk about the show.
ya 'cause people only watch when it airs. So what exactly are YOUR rule for spoiler shelf life? Just be more cautious.
Speaking solely for myself? If I truly didn’t want a moment spoiled, I would protect my own bubble and avoid the most likely places to have it happen.
I certainly wouldn’t make it the internet’s responsibility to protect it for me, because that’s an absolute fool’s errand.
thats just how it works and you know it. There is a Spoiler tag when you post for a reason.
There is a spoiler policy on the sidebar. Read it.
Spoilers dude.