With him being on the final year of his rookie contract, what sort of numbers do we expect to see for him given the good season he’s having? Looking at other starting centers in the league, it seems like he might be around the 20 million mark, maybe more if he continues performing well and being healthy. Is there a chance we lose him to another team?
I think rights play a role here. I think we're allowed to go over certain limits since we own their rights.
Ishbia doesnt mind being in the tax/aprons if the team is contending.
how do the suns keep both him and collin? some other teams might throw the bag at collin
It’s more doable than you think. If the constraint is staying below the 2nd apron to allow some flexibility, the Suns will have $42M in space to fill 5-6 roster spots. Say Marks starting salary is $15M and Collin gets the max we can give him (~$10m I believe), you have another $17m for the other 3-4 spots (depending on if you start the year with 14 or 15 guys).
Then you want to keep Goodwin if possible. I haven’t been able to find his exact contract terms, but the lakers originally had his early bird rights (same as Collin) and the suns inherited the same contract, so I’d assume they have the same rights. I’d say he gets something like $6M/ year, so now you’re down to $11M from the second apron and $2M over the first for the last 2 spots. Maybe one of the 2 way guys this year (Bouyea, Brea, Livers) gets one of those on a vet min. Only one spot left with some wiggle room.
If you stay below the first apron you can acquire guys using sign and trade and using the taxpayer MLE (~$6M) so that may be a priority, idk.
TLDR: very doable to keep both and quite possibly Goodwin if the goal is just to stay below the second apron
And someone feel free to check my math. Looked at the cap sheet yesterday so it’s fresh in my head haha.
Edit: math lol
Nice take as always u/Quiet_Prior
I'd give Gillepsie & Williams the same exact contract if we plan to keep both (My take is that a 4/60 is reasonable for both but you have to sign Gillepsie first due to bird rights)
Suns are over the cap and only have Collin’s early bird rights, not full bird, so they can only pay him up to 105% of the league average salary (think that’s around $11m). Another team with cap space could theoretically offer more, but doubt it’s so much more that Collin would actually leave (hopefully).
Williams is a restricted free agent so the same limits don’t apply.
The Nets aren't giving more to Gillepsie considering how many PGs they have
There are a few other teams with space. Lakers (LeBron and AR will be FA), Hawks, Wiz, Jazz off the top of my head should be able to create some if they want it. Any team below the 1st apron could offer the MLE that’s like $15m.
But I think it would take $17m+ for Collin to leave, and that seems very unlikely. Love him to death, but he’s still just a 6’2” guard. $11m seems very fair.
No way they're giving Gillepsie 17m Hawks getting another small pg doesn't make sense
The Jazz alr have Keyonte & have like WCJ/Collier Wizards have Bub/Kyshawn/Trae
None of it makes sense to offer Gillepsie 15m+
I think we’ll end up keeping both Williams & Gillespie but we lose Goodwin because he’s been balling off the bench. Unless he takes a team friendly contract to stay in PHX.
Ishbia said yesterday that they are going to do everything they can to keep Goodwin in Phoenix for years to come.
I don't wanna lose Goodie 😢
Mat Ishbia said he's gonna keep goody straight up at the end of his interview on the burns & gambo show. At least, that's what I heard
edit: autocorrect
Good to hear. The hustle and energy he puts into the court is so good to watch. If he keeps more consistent with his shots like he has been lately we can go really far this season.
It wouldn't surprise me much if he does to get some stability that's been severely lacking during his career
Except we have the early bird rights for him and can offer him more money and more years than any other team.
Yeah that’s one of the things I’m worried about, Gillespie is balling too hard right now, might not be able to get both to come back.
unless matt ishbia got some aspiration about keeping him
Ishbia was on with Gambo this week saying basically, we are either going to be under the salary cap or way over, not just a couple $k over. To me that sounds like he's planning on keeping the difference makers on the squad if they'll stay.
I mean hey, if Ballmer gets away with it I think other owners should aspire to follow their lead, whatever it takes to keep them.
Pay him 40 mil to do a united wholesale mortgage commercial…and then 5 mil a year in nba salary.
Brilliant!
Not a bad thought lmao.
I really dont think we can keep both AND Goodwin unfortunately
Important to remember that he will be an RFA so we can match any offer, and I think other teams still have cold feet about the failed physical and Charlotte injuries. It’s unlikely someone is just going to throw a bag at him, which is a huge advantage for the Suns.
That said, I think something between $15m-$20m is to be expected. Would be awesome if the Suns can get a team option on the end as well. Assuming he stays healthy the rest of the year, I’ll guess something like 3/$55m fully guaranteed or 4/$70M with the last year being a team option.
Also could look into some games played based guarantees like Zion and Jonathan Isaac have in their contracts.
BG really needs to nail this contract. Ideally, Maluach develops and Mark becomes a luxury by the end of his next contract that can possibly recoup a pick or 2, but that’s impossible if he’s considered overpaid.
Idk, I see contracts like Poetl just signed (4/104) and it makes me think Mark might be closer to 25 or 30 million. Would love to see him on a friendlier deal.
True, that Poetl contract is aging very poorly though. Looking like one of the worst in the league with his recent injury. But it is a fair data point for the center market.
My optimism is mostly from teams staying away from his injury history, which gives the Suns leverage. An RFA almost always takes less than an UFA.
Interesting subplot is Ayton is also an UFA if he declines his $8m option. Interesting to see if he gets more or less than Mark.
Would be so so funny to see Ayton get paid less than him if he doesn’t take his player option lmao.
Williams seems at his best at about 24 minutes tbh.
Assuming Maluach is a good overall and can shoot threes, we might be able to play them together in stints...
If Oso keeps developing and Maluach can shoot 3s, then they can play together too and we can keep Oso as PF and small ball center.
Then we also have Fleming as a big PF that could also do small ball Center someday.
Maluach/Williams/Fleming/Oso all developing and staying healthy and being our primary players taking C and PF is nice to fantasize about. We could have size with a bunch of different strengths that Ott could utilize in the right matchup.
Yeah, another reason Williams probably won’t get a crazy bag. He’s a solid 25 mpg center, not a 35 mpg championship caliber center.
I reallllly hope Maluach develops enough to play with Williams against big teams. Would be so much fun. Probably still a few years away though.
I think between $20-25mil is in line with his play and production right now. I think if he's looking for $30+ it's hard to justify the salary given his role and whether we'll be managing his workload thru the duration of the contract. I also have some concerns about his effectiveness against the bigger centers and then his ability to stay on the floor against quicker, perimeter 5s.
Anything over 20 is an overpay imo
It might take an overpay to keep him, and we might be forced to unless we can get another equal quality center for cheaper. I think we’ll settle somewhere between 25-30, which won’t be great but at least in a couple of years it won’t be that much of the cap.
The Suns have Mark Williams' FULL Bird Rights (different compared to Gillespie, of whom only has Early Bird Rights).
Because the Suns hold his full bird rights designation, and he is an RFA, that means they can exceed the salary cap to resign him. This is an advantage for the Suns over any other team because even if they are over the cap, they can still offer a significant deal without needing the cap space. Sure, another team with cap space could offer him a term sheet, yet at the moment, there are very few teams under the salary cap in the NBA, and the Suns could always match any offer.
My expectation is a deal somewhere in between the one Santi Aldama got in his extension last summer (3 year $52m; $17.5m AAV, 3rd year club option) and the one Nic Claxton got with Brooklyn in summer 2024 (4 year $97m, $24.25m AAV) - based on that salary range and the similar production of those players to Williams going into their RFA contract offseasons, we can assume Mark falls in the 4 year, $80m range (with the 4th season possibly being a club option).
As far as the implications and how it affects resigning Gillespie, it does not impact at all, since the Suns can sign both players without worrying about salary cap restrictions. It will push the team past the first apron, yes, but not the second apron, by resigning both.
I like that range for Mark honestly. Sounds fair for both sides.
I don’t suspect we’ll lost Mark
But we’ve only got about 30 mill before we hit the first apron again.
Mark is gonna take a lot of that space resigning.
End of the day we’ve got 6 guards on this team between DB, Bouyea, CG, JG, Allen and Goodwin. There is simply not enough minutes or money for all of them at some point.
Personally I’d she’d Allen if I could for no monies back, you’d be able to afford CG and Goodwin with the extra cap space without going into the apron.
I thought by now we would have already moved one of Allen, Richards, or O’Neale. I think the front office wants to see how this iteration performs comes playoffs and adjust based on who performs and who doesn’t. Not sure it’s the best strategy but there’s not a lot of options out there if nobody is offering much for them.
Yah free Nick needs to happen I think they’re just trying to get as much draft capital as possible out of him.
Allen is having a career year, maybe they just want to see what a healthy JG looks like first?
Also we’re winning and realistically, the only trade we need to make right now is Nick to get under the luxury tax. Can wait until offseason for the rest of the moves.
Yeah, right now I’m fine just staying put if we’re gonna keep winning, but I’m still curious to see what direction this FO goes towards.
Still an overlap which makes me think a 2-1 deal has to happen to balance out a bit? Not sure who and how yet. But 1 less 'guard' and 1 more 'forward' would be good.
Thank you Bradley Beal!
Honestly, that's on Ishbia/Jones.
That's true
I think he’ll end up taking the 1 year QO after not coming to an agreement. The Suns absolutely love him and I know it’s harsh but I need to see him do it another year. For how young he is he’s been hurt too much and we have Oso and Maluach waiting
This would be insane for a player with his injury history. I would bet the farm he takes the longer guaranteed deal over the QO, even if it’s slightly below market value.
And the Suns didn’t trade draft picks to let him walk after a year. They’ll make an offer for sure.
well he's not walking after a year, he's under contract for next year when we submit a QO.
i think the suns would absolutely love him at 10M a year (he'll get 8.7 next year), but I don't see why mark would settle for something that low in a world where okongwu got and stewart got 4/60
Mark Williams: Is an RFA so we can match. Has been solid this year but wouldnt expect a team to throw a massive massive offer for him. Somewhere in the 20-25/yr range given his injury history seems right for starting center of his quality. Team clearly drops when he isnt available even if he is poor some nights.
CG: I love what hes brought and he needs to be kept. I would guess he is viewed league wide similar to how Ty Jerome was last year. Jerome averaged 12.5/2/3 on 52/44/87 in 20 minutes a game and was 3rd in 6MOTY. He signed for 3/28. I think Gillespie will be in demand. I dont think in the new apron world people are breaking the bank for him. Hes averaging 13.6/4/5 on 44/42/86 in 28 minutes. More all around impact but less scoring punch. I would guess 15 a year gets it done for gillespie. He has a known role here which would encourage his return and I wouldnt bet someone comes in with 20+ year for him which would entice him to leave.
It becomes an issue of who else do you lose to keep CG and Mark rather rather than losing CG or Mark. Goodwin, Bouyea, Allen and Royce I would imagine are all in question.
I think a good quetion is how will the minutes shake out when everyone is healthy. We have 5 guards, not counting Booyea, who all deserve minutes. The way the rest of the season plays out will determine future payroll.
Mark should get enough money so that we can trade him and O’Neal for Lauri Markkenen. Now we don’t trade for Lauri unless Man Man emerges as a high level center. If we does we roll man man and Oso as the center rotation. Then get Lauri to be the starting 4. Mark is a restricted free agent. So there is no real risk of losing him.
Collin should just get as much money as we can give him. Because we only have early bird rights that’s not nothing. But it’s not a lot relatively.
Eh, Man Man is probably 3 years removed from being good enough. And I don’t really like Markkenen, I think he’s the player with most career games without a playoff appearance. Could be a Jazz issue but idk, I’m not really high on him.
Yes. Thats why you don’t actually trade mark unless man man emerges. But giving him that kind of contract gives us trade flexibility.
It’s definitely a jazz issue lol. They have literally been actively tanking. He’s an off ball efficient 3 level scorer who is also a good rebounder.
But even if it’s not Lauri. It still gives us trade flexibility.