Typhoon Bolaven has slowed to a crawl as it approaches the Marianas, at about 1 mile per hour, as of 2:45 p.m., according to the National Weather Service on Guam.

It was moving at about 14 mph in the morning.

The system is now showing indications of possibly rapid intensification, according to Patrick Doll, NWS lead forecaster.

Whether that happens will depend on a number of factors, including how long Bolaven’s stall lasts, Doll said, as “wobbles” in the intensity of the track are expected.

Now heading slowly west, the typhoon could hit Rota head on, or else pass just south of the island through the Rota channel. Saipan and Tinian can expect to be hit with typhoon force winds.

The system was about 35 miles east-southeast of the Rota airport a little after 2 p.m. on Tuesday.

Guam may see slightly higher wind speeds, between 45 and 55 mph and gusts up to 75 mph.

But the chances of Bolaven making a southward turn and bringing sustained winds over 74 mph to Guam is “less than 5%” at this point, according to Doll.

Bolaven was tracking to make its closest point of approach to the north of Rota around 4 p.m. earlier in the day, and was moving at about 14 miles per hour. It’s now “nearly stationary,” according to NWS advisories, and its approach to the islands will vary depending on the length of the current stall.

“It’s hard to say. Sometimes these things can stall for six to 10 hours, maybe 12. And other times it may do it just for a few hours,” he said.

An extended stall of the system “that would not be good at all,” and warm 86 degree waters around Guam, warmer than they were during Mawar, would feed into the strength of the storm,  he said.

“Right now anything could be on the table. That's what we're assessing right now. And if this stall, hold for a couple more hours, then we'll give the Joint Typhoon Warning Center call, see what they think,” Doll said.