We RL train language models how to reason about future events like "Which tech company will the US government buy a > 7% stake in by September 2025?", releasing all code, data, and weights for our model: OpenForecaster 8B.
Our training makes the 8B model competitive with much larger models like GPT-OSS-120B across judgemental forecasting benchmarks and metrics.
Announcement: X
Is a fascinating concept. Is there a machine open forecasting competition? Like tetlock but for machines.
Yes, https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/fall-aib-2025/
https://www.forecastbench.org/