Will the Orioles compete in 2026? How MLB's busiest team has spent the offseason shaping up- No team in baseball has been more active this offseason than the Baltimore Orioles, who wasted no time springing into action after going 75-87 and finishing in last place in the AL East in 2025.
Still feel we’re at least one top of rotation arm away.
• For top end, $150+M SP, gimme Framber.\ • If Imai is $125M or less for five seasons, sure.\ • My preference has always been Gallen ~$100M.
But above all, if the O’s could sign Kyle Tucker for 7/$400M, that would soften the blow of potentially losing Gunnar to FA, which I value more than any pitcher at the current moment.
O's aren't about to hit a salary cap. Price shouldn't matter.
In baseball, the salary cap doesn't matter.
Gunnar to FA?! Please take that back!!
Given the way his agent, Boras, works…
Gunnar is 100% going to be a free agent. The question then becomes can they re-sign him once there.
I’d rather sit on the money and give it to Gunnar when the time comes. He might cost another $100M on top of the 400, but why not?
Ur guys' expectations for what our front office is willing to do is wild to me. Sure, its nice to wish, but the Baz signing, and now Efflin, just further confirms what I already thought..that theres no way we're going to sign the number 1 ( or 2) free agent hitter and also the number 1 ( or 2) free agent pitcher.
The o's have always used stop gaps for the rotation and I've seen no indication or reason to think that thats going to change now
Orioles are probably an arm away and then a move at the trade deadline based on injuries/ production
Team's biggest issue was health. Westburg, Rutschman, and Cowser all missed around half the season, and everyone in the pitching staff, plus our closer, got hurt.
Bradish, Rogers, Eflin, Baz, and Kremer is a solid rotation...if everyone is healthy. What happens if half those guys get hurt? The team's lineup is good, but what happens if half the starters miss 80+ games?
"If we're healthy, we're good" is true of lots of teams every season. I would like to see the team add one more pitcher as a kind of insurance against likely injuries.
If over half the games are started by guys not in our top 5, there isn’t much hope of the playoffs. But that would be true for just about everyone.
Pitching depth is so important, as we learned the last two years. Can't expect to have an unknown like Albert Suarez to step in and throw 100+ innings of good ball. I know we tried last year with Morton, but we should aim for a slightly better depth option that can be a good long man in the bullpen if we are lucky enough to be healthy.
Not familiar enough with the O's pitching prospects, but a prospect should never be relied on for more than a swing man/5th starter role until they prove themselves.
Trey Gibson and Nestor German will start games for the Orioles sometime next season, so quality depth is there. And depending upon how quickly Luis De León continues to develop, he might be up by the playoff push.
2026 is when we start seeing Elias' arms stockpile start to pay off.
I think they'll compete, but the rotation needs to take a step forward and avoid injury if it's gonna happen.
So tough to say. On paper anyway, the 2025 birds weren’t that different than the 2023 and 2024 playoff teams. Before the season started, I thought at least a wildcard was all but guaranteed. Sure, no Burnes, but that’s not the difference between 90 to 100 wins and 75.
It’s about injuries, performance, who has a good year, who doesn’t. Lots of injuries in 2025, and lots of guys with a down year.
So we’ll see. That’s why they play the games!
Agree with everything you said. With everyone down at the same time, hopefully they all bounce back for a healthy 2026.
The division is also a lot better than it was in 2023 and 2024
While true, that wasn’t the reason. .423 in the AL East vs .463 overall, not that different, and the AL East obviously doesn’t have the White Sox (who the Os swept twice).
Take away those six games against the White Sox, pretty much the same in and out.
And they obv forgot to tighten the wheels at the beginning of the 2025 season.
Because the wheels came off immediately.
Actually, people should have seen 2025 coming if they didn't have their heads burrowed in the sand. The Orioles went 49-25 to start the 2024 season. But after that, they went 42-46 with a negative 38-run differential while playing absolutely awful offensive baseball the rest of the way. And in the off-season, they lost their best pitcher, Corbin Burnes and Anthony Santander who hit so many clutch late inning home runs to win games for us without adequately replacing them. The only way the Orioles could have been a playoff team last season is if they had an absolutely lights out off-season to improve the roster which obviously did not happen.
This is hindsight bias. Basically every respected projection model had the Orioles winning 85-90 games before the 2025 season started.
Yep. And they did try to replace Santander, with a guy who had a 2.6 WAR in 113 games the previous season and destroyed LHP (a real problem in 2024). Even though TON had a -.6 WAR and was mostly injured, he still outplayed Santander in 2025 somehow!
Please we were told that oft injured GRod was an ace. The year before the dude started 20 games and had a 3.84 era. Solid but not an ace. Then was Kremer Eflin and two FAs who were willing to sign 1 year contracts.
Now certainly a lot of hitters had down years but, the pitching wasn't acceptable. Hell, just having Bradish and Rogers makes the staff much better than what we had last year.
Rodriguez had ace stuff. He had the seventh best Stuff+ score in MLB over 2023 & 2024, just behind Skubal.
Again, the year before he had a 3.84 era. Certainly a good pitcher but it takes more that "stuff." There is a difference between a guy who is an ace and a guy who has the stuff to be an ace.
Admittedly he was injured, but he went from being an ace to being a guy who got traded with 3 years of control for a one year rental.
And who were the other 4 pitchers behind him? It is classic Elias. The metrics say he can be an ace, so because their coaching is so good, he is annointed.
Yes, and that difference is availability. The Tigers are probably losing Skubal after this season but they don't want to trade him because he is one of the best pitchers in baseball.
By the way, Rodriguez's first two seasons look an awful lot like Skubal's 2021 & 2022. Trading him for one season of Taylor Ward is easily the dumbest thing Elias has done so far.
What you continuously fail to understand is that all of the available pitchers in free agency have warts. Framber Valdez is 32, right when pitchers usually decline heavily, and he's a groundball pitcher while the Orioles have one of the worst infield defenses in the majors. Imai is young but has only been great for one season, so no one knows if it's a fluke. Ranger Suárez's velocity drop is a major red flag, and he's a groundball pitcher as well.
None of those guys are an ace. None of them would guarantee a playoff spot in 2026.
As the NY Mets have repeatedly learned the hard way, there is no such thing as a splashy free agent that guarantees a playoff spot, no matter how much you spend or how good they look on paper.
The ceiling is how far the core develops under the new coaches
IMHO, yes, we are pretty well positioned to be a good team. Sign an A or B+ arm and we could be one of the stronger teams in the AL provided the team has average or better health, overall, and our new coaching staff can help our core take the next steps forward.
I think the Eflin signing is reflective of the lesson learned last year, and the team seeing what was a good opportunity without much risk. I don't think that's the final pitching move of this offseason.
Biggest reason for not competing last year was everyone was injured so much. A combination of better health luck with these additions should close the gap back to competitiveness
Plus Boras went on record saying that Henderson, Westburg, and Holliday were all encouraged by the Alonso signing. I think morale will be in a better place, especially with a strong presence like Pete.
Currently.happier than last year's off season.
One more good arm in the rotation satisfies me and proves Elias gets it
One more rotation piece AND a couple more bullpen arms makes me an Elias true believer.
The continued growth (and health) of Gunnar, Westy, Holliday, and Cowser will be a (if not the) main factor in the success of their season imo. Also - can Bradish and Rogers get to 30 starts. Can Baz develop. Lots of “If’s”
I think the biggest piece we need is obviously a rotation arm, but that’s been repeated in exhaustion this offseason. After that, we need an arm or two in the pen. Would be nice to have 1-2 more veteran arms there. They don’t have to be expensive, and there’s room to be creative there. The next thing is to sort out the bench a bit.
Need a top starter imo but they’re improved yes.
1 more TOR arm and oh best believe he is coming. The starting depth is actually solid with Wells, Suarez, and Eflin for depth long relief and spot starts but we will add at least 1 big name to probably hold down that 3 spot in the rotation - give me Valdez over Suarez and that cross up cost him nearly $100M he won't be as expensive as people think.
NO
We still need top of the rotation help. That’s literally what hurt us the most last season and the problem didn’t just disappear. We have an above average rotation, we will have Bradish back, hopefully Rodgers continues his dominance, we’ll see what we have in Baz, hopefully actually having Wells for once, Kremer is always Kremer, but our window is closing so I hope this effort by the front office this season to add real talent continues and we can sign at least 1 top starter. I have more hope going into this season than I ever did last season, it will skyrocket if we sign say Framber or Ranger.
Still need some pitching.
They can compete with what they have now barring major injury to someone very crucial (ex: If Bradish or Rogers goes down). I don't think they need a mega splash to be a solid contender, but they need depth that isn't just warm bodies. I don't want the depth of the pitching staff to be Cade Povich or Chayce McDermott or Brandon Young. They can be organizational depth, but I don't want their names being called as the 6th or 7th man in the rotation. Even if they sign another #3, that means the depth/swing guys will be Kremer and Wells, and if that's their roles then I'm very confident.
If we stay healthy, yes I think we can compete. Another SP would be nice, but if we get somewhat solid starts from what we have and our lineup hits as well as they should, I could see a really strong run
I’m really intrigued by Kyle Tucker, namely bc his contract should set the bar for Gunnar in 2029 FA.
If the O’s wish to pivot toward Tucker, believing/knowing Gunnar isn’t interested in a $400M contract (which is what Tucker is likely to receive this offseason), then the O’s could essentially sign Tucker to let Gunnar walk in FA, then slide Holliday over to play SS.
The current construction of the O’s roster and its flexibility is something to dream on.
would not hate this, not one bit
For a wild card and an ALDS spot, probably, as long as everyone performs to their potential. But not more than that.
They should compete for a playoff spot, they won’t compete for a World Series and save me the “all you have to do is get in and get lucky” BS that gets thrown around
The Orioles should have competed in 2025. But when you are setting records for number of players used and are practically pulling people out of the stands to be the catcher, there’s not much hope.
If (and this might be a big if) the young guns on the roster are as good as we all think, then this should be a good year. But if Holliday, Westy, Gunnar, Adley, and Cowser are all trend towards average to bust, then it’s going to get rough.
I think the biggest problem has been we have relied too heavily on our young prospects without supplementing with proven players. But Elias seemed to be scared of being the guy who traded a prospect who became a superstar and keeping a prospect who became a bust. So he just kept everyone.
Won't know till the season starts
In a vacuum, no. They're going to need the guys currently on the roster who are supposed to be good to actually play like it.
If our rotation can stay healthy and pitch to the best of their ability and the offense bounces back, absolutely. But I still would like us to sign a TOR starter and another bullpen arm
Not a playoff team yet. Need another TOR starter
1 more front end starter and I’d say yes, but think we still need a bullpen piece or two
The short answer is no
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No
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Well, I think they’ll compete. I just think that top of the line starter is missing. Hopefully they’ll get Valdez or someone up there.
Fuck no
"Just to put some numbers on this, FanGraphs projections currently have the Orioles as the eighth-best team in baseball, narrowly ahead of the AL East rival Boston Red Sox. Four AL East teams are in the top nine.." Very encouraging from a competitive standpoint. so let's nab a frontline starter and fire this ol mongoose up for a pennant run
Mike Elias is such a weasel lookin fuck