With the addition of Eflin, I am really having a hard time envisioning them signing another starter. Right now the rotation would stand as
Bradish Rogers Kremer Baz Eflin
As much divided opinions there are within the fanbase on some of these guys, none of it matters. The only opinion that matters is who the Orioles like. I don’t see them pushing any of these guys to the bullpen or demoting any of them as long as they’re healthy. The only way I can see them bringing in another starter that would pencil right into the rotation is if they traded away Kremer. Obviously Kremer doesn’t have immense value, but he is a serviceable starter with a few years of cheap control left, so I do believe he could be tossed into a trade package to sweeten a deal. I’d be pretty ecstatic if there’s a reality where they could toss him as a throw in piece to a package for Peralta and the rotation would be Peralta, Bradish, Rogers, Baz, Eflin.
Maybe I’m wrong, and hopefully I am. Let’s say hypothetically they went out and signed a Valdez or Suarez today. Do you think the Orioles would bump Kremer(or someone else) to the bullpen? Please try to keep the perspective of what the Orioles could realistically do instead of just what you want them to do. Those things can be drastically different for some fans lol.
We can't think in terms of 5. No team can in 2025. You don't get 5 pitchers and then back away from the table. The last team to throw only 5 starters all season long was 20 years ago with the White Sox. Injuries will happen. Suck will happen. The bullpen will always need help.
Aim for 10, settle for 8, laugh at 5.
Yeah, five is just the kicking off point. Going down to eight you’ve got: 1. Bradish 2. Rogers 3. Baz 4. Eflin 5. Kremer 6. Wells 7. Suarez 8. Povich/Young There is definitely room for another big move.
Heres the thing, I dont think we view Wells or Suarez as starters
So take those 2 out IM.... You still have 8 with Povich and Young and they obviously count but they both should be in AAA/Traded. I think we can afford another SP but if we bring one in it absolutely has to be a difference maker. I think the value we're getting for Eflin and his cost is well worth it.... bring in another piece and youve got the arms to go deep.
honestly tho, Young has the stuff to be a good #3 imo, he's just gotta get his consistency down
that immaculate inning and that damn near perfect game in Houston shows he's got the stuff
He's really intriguing if he can get his control settled
I want to maintain Young in AAA for another year and see where he is, im just not so big on Povich. I think this might be peak value for him, we should move him now for current day rather than seeing where he develops.
Wells and Suarez may both start the year in the pen or Norfolk, but I fully expect the both of them to make at least a couple starts
Totally agree, O's have already been stretching Wells out with the intent of him providing starter-type innings
Yeah Povich/Young should definitely be slotted for AAA and hope one of them can replace Eflin in 2027 if he hits FA.
A new front line starter bumps Dean down to your swing arm as either long term relief or the inevitable IL replacements. Plenty of room to still work without freezing out arms.
Don't forget we have 5 pitchers in the minors with a 2026 eta
The White Sox won it all in 2005 so that tracks.
Exactly. Eflin is likely to start the season on the IL for a couple weeks to build up from the back injury. So we have a spot to add. Injuries will happen and one of those 5 will have an elbow or shoulder injury and lose them for the year. You need around 9 starters. And you need 3 or 4 healthy Playoff starters. O's would be wise to add 1 more starter who is likely to be in that playoff 3 or 4. I love our depth a AAA by the way. And would love another lefty starter, even though the top 2 FAs we keep talking about have their risks/warts.
Great point… with 162 attrition sets in your rotation in August may be completely different from what it was in April
Yes, that’s true, but everyone goes into the season with a penciled in 5. Obviously you need depth. But you’re not going to sign a top FA starter as a “depth in case of injury” option. So if they sign one of them, SOMEONE is getting booted from the penciled in 5 and will become one of those extra guys for when something goes south.
Eflin likely isn’t ready by ST and Kremer I’d be perfectly fine with being bumped out. He’s an ok 4/5 but if we get a stud, he becomes a strong option to be pushed to BP and take over when injuries occur.
The thing is, they don’t even necessarily need to “boot” someone from the starting 5 at all if they add a TOR starter.
Eflin is far from a lock to be ready opening day. Bradish is not a 30 start guy in 2025, Baz has an injury history and may not be a 30 start guy. Wells is not far removed from massive injury. Pitching is an injury riddled position. By the time Eflin is ready and ramped up, there is a decent bet that we have an injured starter.
Bringing in someone like Eflin, who may not even be ready for the season but plenty good enough to slot in when he is, is what smart teams do.
I'm trying to get you to think beyond the "penciled in 5". Everyone might mean fans, or teams 10 years ago. I assure you that front offices today do not pencil in 5 like we all used to do 20-30 years ago. Those days are done. Teams don't think in terms of 5 men staffs, including the Orioles.
I don't think Eflin starts the season healthy personally, I know they say hes ready for ST, but I would bet money he starts the season on extended spring training and eventually replaces an injured starter. Even if that doesn't happen, my money is on Kremer in the bullpen and they still are going for another major starter.
Every indication from the team and from reporters is they are in Valdez and Suarez. That doesn't mean they will sign them, but if they are willing to sign Alonso and figure out what to do with Mayo and Mounty later, I am sure they would rather sign the guy and figure it out later here too. I wonder if they have gotten an indication from one of the big starters that they aren't coming and that's why they made the Eflin move now as a backup.
I wouldn't be surprised if the orioles are not high on the list for those two, just as I think last time I checked, the current roster and coaching staff has the least amount of hispanic players on it in baseball. I doubt that's a huge factor, but if you're looking to sign a big deal for multiple years, it might weigh in.
Great points. I have no doubt we’ve enquired about every possible big name pitcher in the market but it’s a matter of getting them to actually sign with the team. It could be they don’t want to play on a small market team, their family could be on the west coast, lack of Hispanic players (like you mentioned above), etc. Elias and co can only do so much.
I think it’s more reason to be excited about and get behind Alonso. He chose to come here and commit to trying to win a title in Baltimore when I would bet a number of teams would love to have him.
I really cant help but wonder how signing Alonso factors into the mental considerations of guys like Suarez and Valdez. We have a lot of young, promising hitters, and with another good pickup or two, I cant help but start to get a touch of championship contender hope.
Heck, as it stands, even with an Eflin rotation, Im optimistic about our playoff odds, even after this atrocious season.
Then again, I think optimism is basically a requirement of being an Orioles fan. Would be hard without it lol.
Feel you on the optimism that may feel somewhat delusional right now.
But this time last year many of us felt the lack of additions would hurt the team and lo and behold…
So I’m going to choose to hold out hope that we’ll add another SP but even if we don’t, opening day cannot be here fast enough lol
I don't think it's delusional, as long as you believe in the young hitters. I think the rotation looks better, I think we'll get another pitcher still too. None of that matters if Gunnar, Adley, Jordan and Jackson aren't better. I think they will be, but if that's not a real offensive core, we're not doing anything
I wonder about that too with the Alonso signing. I'm genuinely curious about the different factors in a players choices in free agency. The Orioles look like a good team on paper, but do they want to move here? What other teams are making real offers? Do they have a chance to sign closer to home or a place with real friends? I know a lot of times it's just dollars, but like with Schwarber, the money matched and he went where he's comfortable. The psychology of free agency is very interesting to me
Is it wrong that I hope so hard for IMAI? Recent reporting suggests it is down to the Cubs and Yanks (plz no) but I hope we can dark horse swoop in there and blow the doors off this off-season.
I like him too, but it's seemed like the orioles are less interested in him, could be they want a lefty, could be Imai told them he doesn't want to be in baltimore, who knows.
i'm on this train
I agree with you. I think Eflin will not break camp with the team but this is a smart move especially if they sign Valdez or one of the other top pitchers out there. With the season ending injuries they had with some of their starters last year having a few well established starters to plug in like Wells, or perhaps Kramer or even Eflin will help keep them afloat rather than torpedo the season.
Yeah I mean, Bradish, Rogers, and Eflin all missed a lot of time last year, and Baz had TJ two years ago, They need all the depth they can have. I think the Grayson situation burned Elias' brain a little and he's very aware of the depth needs in the rotation.
They aren’t in on Valdez unless he is willing to take a short term deal
In addition to the “you can never have too much pitching” mindset, we have to recognize that Bradish will undoubtedly have a heavily-monitored workload, at least early in the season. Same with Wells, who may factor into the rotation (though I personally hope he settles in as a 7th/8th inning type of bullpen arm), and probably same with Eflin. The five they have now may be a group we’re comfortable with in September, but there’s just no way it’s all they’re going to need in April and May. And as we recall from last year, April and May games count just the same.
Depth move imo. They need 6 legit starters. Especially with 2 potential starters coming off TJ (including Wells). Wells/Eflin/Kremer can still scrap it out for that 6th spot with the addition of another top end starter. Ideally you want Kremer/Eflin in there as 5/6 to gets Wells in the pen and hope he can perform all season. Then you can throw Povich in there for a spot start as well if you need it. As crazy as it sounds 10M is nothing for a starter who has the potential to eat innings up.
I think the Eflin move stems from Mike learning his lesson from last year. He sat on his hands too long waiting for Burnes to make his decision and missed all the mid tier starters in the process.
This year he’s added Baz and Eflin while still in pursuit of the ace class of arms.
While it’d be nice to add another, the O’s outlook for pitching isn’t as bleak as some might assume.
I've been constantly refreshing watching your edits to the table haha. You finally got it, nice job haha
Learned a new skill today 😉
Lol no Rays?
Mainly for karma purposes, but only bc you asked:
Don’t forget Big Al Suarez
I still think they bring someone in who you would feel comfortable starting Games 1 or 2 of a playoff series.
Eflin may not be ready for opening day. Roch even said as much when they signed him:
"In question is whether Eflin can be an immediate contributor this season.The broad recovery timeline (4-8 months) didn’t provide any assurances, but the fact that he’s got a new contract hints at a positive rehab and possibility that he's ready for Opening Day. Otherwise, the Orioles will have to wait."
Realistically you need quality depth because its inevitable that someone will miss a start or two. Bradish is an ace in my mind, but he has only made 16 starts the last two years. We just dont know he will be healthy the full season. Rogers has had injury trouble the last few years. Guys get hurt. I'd much rather have Eflin/Wells be the 6th/7th guy on the depth chart than Cade Povich/Brandon Young.
I believe we will get top of the rotation starter. Elias told us what he was going to do, get a impact bat, back of the bullpen, and front of the line starter. He has gotten the first 2. In press conferences, he acknowledged Baz is probably a 4th starter and I can’t imagine he would say Eflin would be an top starter after his past season. I think it is a depth signing, Eflin only $10 million is a great deal if he’s healthy. If we sign a Ranger Suarez or Valdez or trade for an ace, then we have a surplus of Kremer, Wells, Povich, Brandon Young, Albert Suarez as depth with Trey Gibson and Nestor German eventually coming
He did get a top of the rotation starter. His name is Trevor Rogers. In all seriousness though I wouldn't call this off season a fail though if we dont land either of those two. It wouldn't be A+ but would be certainly one of the best in recent memory.
It’s also worth noting that Eflin was pretty dang money when healthy in 2024 and 2025 (pre-injury). If he can get anywhere close to that form again, this is a steal of a deal.
the hate on kremer is crazy in this sub I love deano he’s a great veteran oriole that loves his team & works his ass off
Kremer rarely gets injuries too, he’s undervalued here for sure
6 starts w/ 7+ IP and 3 or fewer hits allowed.. good for 2nd most such games in Orioles' history. The hate is preposterous
The hate is crazy. He's a number 5 pitcher who can give you 7+ and 1 earned run type of starts. He got over that hump last year. Yes, he has his bad outings, but when appropriately slotted (in the #5), he's better than average when compared to your typical number 5
Can't speak for everyone, and wouldn't say I hate Kremer, but I want to upgrade from him. To his credit, he has been around an average MLB starter and dependable from a health standpoint for multiple seasons now. But he is too volatile on which pitcher you get from start to start. You get some great outings where he is fun to watch and gives you hope that he is developing from a back-end to middle-of-the-rotation starter, but then immediately follows it up with a dud.
Everyone sucked in that Sacramento park and all of our starters struggled having to pitch against the Astros back-to-back starts.
I know Krem dream isn't the greatest but he's good, seems crazy that Elias would bounce a bona-fide MLB starting pitcher to the bullpen
Given how often you see SPs get hurt now, I don’t get how you move Kremer to the bullpen when he has 1 option remaining and could be depth in AAA, ramped up as a SP instead of working out of the bullpen in early blowouts as our long reliever.
There is some Kremer love here from the statheads, but the fans do not ever think about Kremer.
Kremer is consistently average. If Elias needs the roster room, then we can always trade Kremer for a box of donuts. But until we see how fragile everyone is, I don’t see the Eflin signing as having any impact yet.
Kremer is our chad innings eater that's actually quite decent most of the time
Don’t hate him. Am not inspired by him.
That rotation is not good enough. It’s better than what we ended with, but it’s no different than when people went into last year saying "hey you know Eflin, Rodriguez, Sugano, Morton and Kremer isn’t too bad."
They need a high end reliable healthy guy. This rotation has a very low floor and potential to be a ticking injury bomb
That said I still don’t think they are done
Eflin won't be ready for like two months. Eflin is depth. He will be there to spell Bradish here and there since he's also coming off injury.
I wouldn't be surprised if Elias doesn't get another starter because years of his behavior has established that pattern, I'll certainly be disappointed though.
Back surgery that he had has a 4-8 month recovery time. Maybe he misses a month at most. That would be 9 months after he got the surgery
Not a doctor so take this with a grain of salt:
If they're smart, they're not rushing him back. Dude won't get a full, normal spring training. Easing him along and a proper ramp up would be the smart move.
Especially if they add a Ranger Suarez or another lower tier free agent. Even if we don't, I think with Povich or Albert Suarez they could get away with him spending a bit longer on the IL.
You need to factor in the extended spring training he will get in the regular season. 8 month recovery time with a month of ramp up makes sense.
I think Eflin is brought along slowly and will start the year in late April/early May with a rehab stint in Norfolk. At that point, he's either filling in for an already injured/struggling starter, or helping the O's go towards a 6-man rotation. It really doesn't matter, but the O's will absolutely need him at some point to keep the rotation fresh and allow them to get to the postseason.
Bradish is coming off TJ so it's not like he will be throwing 160+ IP. Rogers maybe can get to 175 IP after throwing 140 last year but if he pitches anywhere close to last season, he will also need to skip some starts. Eflin will be key in allowing the Orioles to do this so that Bradish and Rogers can still have juice in the postseason.
Can never have too much pitching. Eflin was good when he was healthy and was willing to come back on a one year. Low risk high reward. They’ll bring in one more and either trade Kremer or make him a long reliever/spot start guy I bet
It seems pretty clear that most GMs don’t want to give the remaining FA starters a long term deal of 6-7 years. Cease was an outlier with his durability and the Blue Jays near unlimited resources after their World Series run. Framber and Ranger don’t seem as likely to live up to a long term contract. Look at Michael King’s shorter term deal with opt outs. I’d bet Elias is playing the waiting game hoping he can sign one of the remaining FAs to a shorter, high AAV deal like that one.
And one silver lining from last season is Povich was on the MLB club all year so he didn’t burn one of his optionable years. He’ll start in AAA again and Eflin will come back in May or June. Hence the incentive laden deal based on number of starts
So what am I missing by looking at King?
I see a reliever turned starter who missed 3+ months in 2025, who had a QO attached. King wanted a shorter deal with opt outs, because if he goes 160+ innings in 2026 with a sub 4 ERA, he's going to opt out and get paid.
If he was insistent on a 1 year opt out, going back to the Padres makes a ton of sense. Most teams don't mind losing a draft pick for a good pitcher, but losing a draft pick while giving a pitcher an opt out after year 1? Yea, teams will shy away from that.
I think the QO was more of a factor than his 2025 performance. He was one of the better starters in baseball in 2024. And he was still good "when healthy" in 2025. 160+ innings and a sub 4 era with no QO pick next year will put him right in our wheelhouse next offseason.
For all of our activity this offseason, we still have yet to see Elias sign a QO guy. He waited until Pete no longer had one to sign him to this big deal. For that reason, I don't see Framber, Ranger or Gallen happening. And I don't disagree with that approach.
Initially I had a difficult time reading the tea leaves on this one. Wasn't really sure what direction Elias was planning on going. But then some have mentioned that Eflin will not be ready to start the season and combine that with the fact that it's still only late December, I think Elias gets someone. I know, what a bold prediction, but did anyone have Shane Baz on their bingo card? I say someone, because I think it's more likely that we sign someone who isn't being mentioned or thrown around. No one thought we'd trade for Corbin Burnes in February 2024 or sign Charlie Morton (gulp).
Basically I think it's more likely we sign another pitcher who is a number 3 or 4 than a top end starter. If we do that, the rotation is more than respectable. And then Elias has enough dry powder to deploy at the trade deadline.
The Orioles gave Eflin reliever / 6th starter money, to be a 6th starter. I don’t understand why so many people think this signing means the O’s are no longer going to go after a top of rotation guy (unless you already thought that before this signing).
This is a depth move, pure and simple.
That starting 5 pitchers is really now an old fashioned idea these days. Look at the Dodgers. They’ve been going 6-8 starters deep now for the last few years.
The possibility of yr starting 5 arms start the year and end the year as the same set of pitchers is highly rare today. So teams are being more and more constructed with the expectation that a few of those arms will get hurt every year. Imagine that! Today, GMs are building their teams expecting 2-3 arms will get injured to varying degrees. That’s where we’re at now. So the only time that starting 5 rotation only gets set is basically on Opening Day. For us last year, we never even got there because of injuries in Spring Training.
I see the signing of Eflin is buying some insurance against the likelihood of injuries factoring in. Remember that the Dodgers tend to have at 5 potential front rotation guys at the start of the year (Snell, Yamamoto, Ohtani, Glasgow, Sasaki..). And they rarely pitched together in the single turn last year. Maybe once or twice?
Maybe we have an extra arm at the start of the year, and there’s a million ways of manipulating rosters to stash arms along the way, but we will need a starting arm maybe by May or June.
Would be a massive failure not signing or trading for a top 3 in the rotation arm
I can’t stop thinking about how Jim Palmer would describe an at-bat against Eflin as “comfortable”. Basically he’s got to be perfect to be effective. I’d like to see another move to supplement the rotation further.
🤢 🤮 please sign another starter. I can’t take another year like the past one we just suffered through. This is not a good lineup, better, yes. Good, no.
Hopefully not- look at the dodgers as an example they always have 10 starters knowing 5 of them will be out for the season at some point- one more TOR arm makes this the deepest and strongest rotation we have had in a long long time
Sure but you are forgetting that 2 of these guys will go on season long IR sometime during Spring Training
I'm hoping that all the smoke around the front office actually changing mindsets means there is FIRE. If this was the 'old' Elias, I would wholeheartedly agree with your premise. I'm hoping beyond hope that we take another major step to be real playoff contenders and that means signing an 'ace' level FA as we can all agree the Hot Stove is now cooled off after Baz.
Also. Kremer has an option left I think?
Based on history, at least one of them is bound to inevitably miss some significant time. They should act now and bring in at least one more starter and some bullpen arms for depth instead of being reactionary and sign a Gibson or trade prospects when they need depth. Povich, Wells, or Suarez can be nice stop-gaps, but are not the answer when this occurs.
As most have said, you have to factor in guys missing time and wanting depth. Rolling a healthy 6 man rotation would be an ideal way to start the season.
i don't understand. if they sign Valdez to a huge contract then Kremer is pushed out. but, also. YOU CAN NEVER HAVE ENOUGH PITCHING. the Dodgers sign or have at least 7 major league quality starters every year because attrition is a thing.
Elfin won't be ready for Opening Day.
They didn't sign Burns until February.
They'll get someone, if not two.
Most fans, and even the media, thought the O’s were a good team and strong contenders going to the 2025 season. The rotation was considered solid.
But both the rotation and the O’s overall sucked.
Some of the same thinking remains in place for 2026. No, the current available rotation is not near strong enough to win a division, much less a World Series. Out of the current 5 projected starters, all are unproven at best. How many of them are likely to be good? There is no ace and nothing close. This rotation looks like a 2, two 3s and two 5s. At least two of these guys would need to overachieve and then none of the others could flop. This already feels optimistic.
Bottom line: the O’s need an ace. That would knock out one of the 5s and they would have a decent pitching staff that could get into the playoffs and beyond.
Its a sorry state of affairs if the team does not realize that you need 8 starting pitchers. Injuries happen. I doubt that the Orioles are done stocking up the rotation
The media and team have said they aren’t done looking for pitching. If there’s any year that would be perfect for them to roll with a 6 man rotation it’s this year. They’ve got a bunch of guys with injury history who will be on innings limits and six man rotation would help keep them from being shut down before the end of the season and lower risk of reinjury
I don't think a single team had their entire rotation healthy all season. You almost need 8 good starters to ensure you have a consistent 5 man. I'm sure Bradish's innings will be a bit limited. Kremer is good, I like what he offers, but Framber Valdez is better, like that would be a clear upgrade if it happens and pushes Kremer or Eflin to the pen and spot starts.
I really do wonder what the asking price from the Reds for Andrew Abbott is. I think he only has 1 or 2 years left on his contract and how cheap the reds have shown to be I feel they would bite on a pretty good package of young MLB pitchers and Mountcastle or Mayo
(Valdez/Suarez/Imai) Bradish Rogers Baz Kremer Eflin Wells Suarez Povich Young
As compared to last year, and this is everyone who made more than one start for us in mostly descending order (except I put Rogers at the top out of respect):
Rogers Sugano Kremer Povich Morton Eflin Young Bradish Wells K. Gibson Akin
Baseball isn't played on paper, it's played on dirt and grass and sometimes on plastic painted to look like dirt and grass. But even if we don't sign a front line pitcher for our rotation, the depth looks much much much better to my mind in 2026.
That being said, I wouldn't hate another addition to help us limit those Povich/Young/Akin starts as much as possible. I actually like both Povich and Young a lot, but I think expecting them to carry the load of a would-be contender should injuries arise is...unwise at this time.
Unfortunately, you are probably right. The "Eflin is just depth!" crowd isn't being realistic here. No starter is going to sign under the condition of being stashed in the bullpen to start the year because "trust me bro, injuries will happen and you'll get your chance."
If Eflin isn't ready on Opening Day they'll just roll with Povich for a few weeks. That leaves Kremer to the bullpen as the only realistic path to signing a top tier arm, and for all the crap fans love to give Kremer he is too good as a starter to be wasting away in the bullpen (the Front Office knows this).
I suspect the O's were serious about their intentions of adding a top free agent starter, received luke warm signals from their agents, and pivoted to their back-up plan of Eflin instead.