As of today, the Chiefs currently have the 11th best point differential in the NFL at +60 yet are already eliminated from the playoffs. Last year after 14 games, their point differential also ranked 11th in the league at +70, but instead they were 13-1 and the AFC number one seed at the time.
After the first 14 games of the season:
2025 Chiefs: 328 points scored, 268 points allowed, 6-8 record
2024 Chiefs: 329 points scored, 259 points allowed, 13-1 record
Those one score games have come back to bite them this year...
Just goes to show how big of a difference those one score games make
It helps when you Qb doesn't throw picks at the end of games all year
one score and how many ref interference calls did we see last year, at least 1 per game they won in which clearly they were getting help. Guess the check didn't get cashed this year.
Plus all the holding they get away with.
And the offsides. Jones lined up offsides twice and got the flag the second time
In this case we called the TO the first time, but whatever we corrected wasn't the obvious offsides thing. Chris has definitely lined up offsides a lot this year it feels like.
No, we get all the calls.
And the murder.
S, plural
Because we only played the Cowboys all year
I truly believe that report that came out last offseason detailing how insane the whistle KC got compared to the rest of the league kinda rattled the NFL a bit and they went out of their way to correct it this year. KC ALWAYS and I mean ALWAYS got the exact flag they needed in every situation when they were in a tight game. This year they finally didn't, and we saw what this team truly was. This should have been them last year too, they just got propped up one year longer than they should have with the officiating.
also the taylor swift effect. nfl trying to capture more viewers.
It’s was worth seeing them get their ass kicked in the sb. And now karma bit them in the ass this season. Don’t think we have to worry about the chiefs like before until 2027 or 2028. They got some issues to fix on the offensive side of the ball
They had 9 all of last year.
The NFL is way way way more luck based than people admit
Yep. Luck and health (which are kinda the same thing) are the most important things in the league after QBs
I saw “Luck” and “health” together and had a Vietnam style flashback
Now I’m picturing those glorious black and white civil war memes where Luck is writing to his beloved Beth or his “dearest mother” about the war.
Fumble recoveries
Interception rate
Redzone (both offense and defense)
All often times random.
The phrase "game of inches" is way too accurate. Players so often end up half an inch away from making a catch inbounds, tipping a ball into an interception, evading a tackle for a breakaway run, etc. Even things like facemask penalties -- every one of them is unintentional and most are from accidentally reaching an inch in the wrong direction in the chaos of the moment.
Really good players can bend the odds in their favor, but they're still playing with probabilities, not certainties.
One of these is not like the other
All of them are often times random and vary drastically even with the same team
Packers were 3rd last year in interception rate and now 27th, Mckinney is dropping picks all over. Good example
He was talking about red zone rate. That one's not so much random, it just relies on a lot of variables that fluctuate year to year.
There are a few exceptions. Davante Adams, Bill Belichick. But not many
Vikings as well. Last year so many tipped passes went right to defenders. This year it feels like they all hit the ground.
Not random, but age can affect players very differently year-by-year. Tucker went from being a top of the league kicker to a free agent in one season because his age just hit his game like a truck.
Well, the tug jobs didn’t help either.
True but Imo they release him regardless
Don’t call them tug jobs, he went to normal massages places and did the shit himself. Kraft got the consensual tuggers
3rd & 4th downs.
That muffed punt off the foot and Greenlaw snapping his Achilles from just jumping around like wtf kinda luck is that
I would argue health is the most important given if your qb1 ain't healthy and you don't have Nick Foles as your backup, you're not going anywhere.
Yes but in a game where huge guys smash into each other at full speed, health is itself almost entirely luck based
"Almost entirely" seems like a stretch.
Strength and conditioning teams, team doctors, and practice regimes have to play some role.
I don't think it's a coincidence that Kyle Shanahan is known for being a slave driver as a coach, and his teams seem to consistently have more injuries.
Jones & McDuffie never missing a big game helped their run immensely.
never having to play players the equivalent of kair elam and aj klein
If Christian Benford is healthy last year I am highly confident the Bills make the Super Bowl.
Gets knocked out the first drive of the game and that’s a wrap.
I read a book called The Drunkards Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives and it was really eye opening to how much of a role luck plays in everything.
Well everything but the NBA which is basically designed to filter out luck.
I really enjoyed that book as well.
ngl, the parts that got very "mathy" were difficult for me to understand.
That book made me depressed lol.
Really? It’s been a few years since I’ve read it. Parts of it were hard for me to understand but I didn’t find it depressing.
I think it was teh nothing matters aspect. But i read it a long time ago too at a different stage in my life. Wonder if i would still feel that way.
A single missed open-field tackle is the difference between a stop for a loss and a long TD run. One step can be the difference between a completed pass and batting it down.
Eh, if you miss a tackle behind the line of scrimmage and that gets turned into a long TD run, then your defense did a lot more wrong that play than just being unlucky.
That's just a well executed screen though, getting the pass catching RB out in space with just one man to beat is kind of the MO for the whole concept.
One man to beat for a big chunk, not a long TD. If you rip a TD off of that, somebody else on the defense very probably made a mistake.
Or the QB audibled into a screen when he read a zero blitz...
Sure, but I don’t think “damn, football is random, one missed tackle is the difference between a td and a TFL!” is the right takeaway there at all. Zero is rarely called and considered maximally aggressive for a reason. When you get burned on it fans don’t lament their luck, they resent the call. At best it’s “one missed tackle and an aggressive defensive call at just the wrong moment is the difference between a TD and a TFL”. That’s not an example of little moments of variance being the difference, that’s the core rock-paper-scissors flow of the sport.
It's an exaggerated example yeah. It'd also require the safeties to crash down and fail to set the edge. But none of that would matter if the CB in position makes the play. If the safeties are ass but the CB is making plays, it doesn't matter. But if he's not on his A game, it's suddenly a huge issue.
I feel 'luck' isn't quite the right word. It isn't 'luck' that a top receiver makes a toe-tap catch instead of stepping out of bounds. But those margins are razor-thin. If the QB sails the pass slightly, if the DB gets one more step to push the receiver out of bounds, if the refs call it incomplete and no challenge flag is thrown, that play is negated. And in a close game those razor-thin margins can decide how the game ends up.
Unless you're coached by Mike Tomlin, then there's no need to be concerned about things like luck. You'll get 9-8 or 10-7 and you'll LIKE IT.
Especially when you factor in penalties. A PI call can completely change the outcome of a game. Especially when it's one of those 3rd down soft bullshit calls.
and holding! The amount of drives that just get stalled out due to a hold (and I know there are many more that should because they don't get called).
And a cynic might say it’s not always random
Not cynical when a published paper proved that NFL officials favored the Chiefs for years. It taints their whole legacy and the only ones that didn't seem to acknowledge it was themselves.
What paper is this?
Here ya go
It’s a peer reviewed paper. It’s interesting. It shows the pats were favored in the playoffs. Not full of cherry picked stats as the other person suggests.
https://www.utep.edu/newsfeed/2025/october/utep-study-reveals-how-financial-pressure-shapes-nfl-officiating.html#:~:text=By%20analyzing%20more%20than%2013%2C000,the%20NFL%27s%20most%20marketable%20franchises.
It's crazy when that paper actually says the chiefs were hurt by the refs in the regular season, but people like you can't read.
I shared that paper in a separate Discord channel, and one guy who isn't even a Chiefs fan, literally said: "this paper was full of flaws, contained cockamamie ass shit, and that whoever published this should be embarrassed".
This particular person is also a former high school football ref, if that means anything.
So many 50/50 plays and calls that determine the game.
Shit. Look at the Steelers vs Colts in the AFCCG. Jerome Bettis fumbles at within the 3 yard line, which he rarely ever fumbled. The ball bounces back a couple yards and right to where only a Colts player can grab the ball. Then Big Ben makes a very unlikely shoe string tackle while falling which saves a TD. So much insane luck in just one play and the lucky tackle decided the game.
100%. Really, the only way to remove a lot of the luck from the equation is to win by 2 plus scores. And the salary cap makes it very difficult to do that on a regular basis.
Variance. Happens every time.
Yep. Single seasons are not statistically relevant. A few in a row sees... a regression to the mean
As a 49er fan I am feeling our luck this year. Long may it continue
For sure, the chiefs won all of those close games for an extremely long time but even the best coached teams with the best qbs can’t win like that forever.
Yeah including in this very thread. Somehow last year was “luck” but this year is “what was supposed to happen.”
Mystique means nothing. Playing the Patriots during their dynasty was just like playing any other team. Nobody got freaked out about it.
Yup. People have a hard time understanding that just because something did happen, that does not mean it had to happen.
I mean, just look at the shape of the ball. The damn thing bounces every which way and it's damn near impossible to predict. The difference between a fumble bouncing right into the hands of a defender for a scoop and score vs. right back into the mits of the fumbler, who later goes on to score on that drive. That's a 14 point swing, right there. Times that by so many other weird little moments in a game. It's amazing and frustrating as Hell.
Football is a game of inches. And sometimes an inch one way or the other can make or break a relationship.
How can it be luck based if Reddit told me that every game is predetermined??
Most things in life are
I mean we saw it last year. The Chiefs had all the luck on their side. Everything went their way. And it showed in the Super Bowl when they met a vastly better team and got curb stomped. It was bound to happen, looking back on it. And now we also see it this year when all those lucky breaks don’t go your way plus the other issues they had that led to them not making the playoffs.
I also think teams play they dumb in close games. The bills and Ravens are prime examples of playing scared.
We are like 5 plays away from being 6-10
You mean ref based
Well he retired a while ago so it shouldn't be luck based anymore.
No wonder the Colts have been losing so much recently
No idea what you're talking about...
Our kicker missed a fg last game where the ball tipped over on the stand and the ref never called it. Except the other team got some weird call interfering with the snapper or something. Mildly crazy chain of events
If that’s true and it’s so high variance, then why have 2-3 dudes basically controlled the AFC my entire life? I mean literally since 2012 every single AFC championship game without one outlier has had either Brady or Mahomes in it. Luck??
Annoying fan take: they aren't getting the bullshit call they got for last few years that extended their drives
part of why i think the talk about the chiefs’ dynasty being over or paused are a little premature. a neutral variance/luck season puts us closer to 8-6 or 9-5, right now. certainly not unstoppable force good, but their record doesn’t nearly reflect their actual performances imo.
If anything, they were better than last year's team.
The 2024 version of the offense with the makeshift line and no Rice had no business being in the Super Bowl with just about any other QB.
The offense was better this year for sure, but the defense took a step back. They are terrible on 3rd down. I forget the exact stat, but just as an example there was something like 3rd and 5+ blitzes, last year they branded top 3 in pressure and success rate. This year they are 28th-ish in the same stat. Don't skewer me pls, trying to go off memory.
last year they weren't that good
People said it all year and forgot when they started winning in the playoffs..
It was a ticking bomb
If you “weren’t that good” all the way to a Super Bowl loss then you were 2nd best, which is pretty fucking good lol
Both things can be true. The Chiefs aren't the juggernauts they were at their peak, but no one in the AFC replaced them. There's no dominant AFC team (or NFC team, for that matter).
The NFL is in a weird spot right now. Parity can be a good thing, but sometimes we need a king of the hill to help create compelling storylines. There's no Patriots levitating over everyone.
I mean ironically there kind of are Patriots looming over the league
I get your point though, nobody looks absolutely dominant. Just a funny example to use of the Patriots since they have the best record in the league.
Fun fact. Patriots don't even have the best record in their own conference
Hell yea. Go Bornco
it was easily the weakest chiefs team of your run. Totally forgettable.
Nobody really stood out, barely winning etc..
The sentiment last season was "they cent keep getting away with it". This season is what happens when you don't keep getting away with it.
Tbf the team this year had no business being in contention for playoffs by week 14 even with Rice, Worthy and Mahomes health. The team isnt good, and theyd have been lucky to have 2 wins without Mahomes this year
That defense would have them roughly .500 with any average QB. 8th best in ypg on defense, and 5th best in PPG allowed.
It's not as good as last season, but still an elite defense capable of ensuring every game is in the balance late.
Top 10 defense and top 10 O line. Offense just couldn’t do it for KC this year
I think a big part of their defense per-game stats being good is because the offense takes such long drives. The defense has fewer drives to defend than most teams. Most per-drive stats they are bottom ten, they’re just not on the field as much
We talk about Rice as if he’s some major game changing player when in reality he’s a JAG
I think it just confirms that small changes affects a team's record. There's just a noticeable decline in their defense. Less sacks than last year for one. They had 39 in 2024 and 29 so far this year with like 3 games left. Chris Jones looks slower and less motivated.
Pretty much. Almost every loss this year is because the defense couldn't get a single stop in the 4th quarter. There was a stat that Mahomes had come from behind 3 games this season in the 4th quarter, and then still lost. I think they said it took Brady until 2013 or something crazy to have 3 such losses.
It was giving up 3rd and long in the last 5 minutes.
They have the same sack % than last year :
2024 : 39 sacks, 569 passing plays , sack % = 6.85 %
2025 : 29 sacks, 417 passing plays , sack % = 6.95 %
The teams we played this year have gotten a lot better too. Texans, Broncos, Chargers on defense, Cowboys, Jags, Chargers on (offense). That's 6 losses right there.
Then there are costly fumbles and interceptions from our side, that lost us a couple of games.
Everyone wants to talk about the one score games and luck and it just feels like no one's actually watched the Chiefs play at all the last 2 years.
Last year in pretty much all those 1 score games they were leading most the time, several of the games they were up 2 scores in the 4th and the other team scored once to cut it to 1 score but never had a real shot of winning.
This year is pretty much the reverse. All those 1 score games we were down in the 4th quarter, a lot of them down 2 scores and we'd score to cut it to 1 score but never have a real shot at winning.
It's not luck, the team last year was better on defense, and generally had the lead in every game so they could control the game and let the other team fuck up at the end and lose. This year in all the 1 score games we've generally always been behind most the game and then fucked up.
tl:dr - Chiefs had better defense and generally had the lead, this year they have a worse defense and generally were behind the whole game.
The Chiefs needed a blocked Field Goal to beat the Broncos last year. The Raiders also had a snap failure while in or almost in field goal range. They barely survived against the Ravens in the end zone. The defense played well in most games but they definitely had help in some of those games
There's been about 5-7 games won by a blocked field goal since then. Do you remember any of them or constantly bring it up as proof of luck?
Say the Raiders recover the snap failure, it's going to be a roughly 55 yard field goal. Their Kicker was 7/11 on 50+ field goals last year, so it's not a given. They also had an illegal shift penalty on the play, so even if the snap went perfectly and they gained yards it was coming back anyways. Once again, information that you don't know or care about at all.
The Ravens TD wouldn't have won them the game. They could have tied with an XP or gone for 2, which I guess you just guarantee they make even though we watched them fail on two of them against the Bills in the playoffs last year, and no one really talks about the Bills getting lucky there. People catch balls out of bounds all the time, but again you remember only this one.
These things happen multiple times every season, you guys just love to nitpick them out for the Chiefs, while completely ignoring when they happen any other time. Show me a team with 10+ wins a season that hasn't got a couple lucky wins in their favor during a season.
Exactly. And well put.
Best of health and recovery to your players.
The Chiefs were a narrow 2nd in the AFC in weighted DVOA before last week to a Colts team who are starting 45 year old Rivers now instead of Jones. They were projected to be favourites over Denver.
They are pretty good! Mahomes is leading the 3rd best offense in the same stat with a myriad of tackle combinations, a diminished Kelce and Rice as his surrounding cast. Their run game is good at keeping the offense on schedule but pathetic at creating explosives.
Sadly, one score games are pretty random in NFL history. This is massive proof of it. 10-0 last year vs 1-7 this year. If all was fair, they might have went 11-6 both years. Instead they’ll go 15-1 and the miss the playoffs.
One score games require context though. For example, the only reason the Bills KC game was a one score game was because of a missed field goal that would have essentially ended the game. KC played TERRIBLY that game (Mahomes specifically)
The Jags/Eagles/Chargers/Broncos games are examples of what they were pulling out the bag last year
To be fair they won a lot of games last year when they played terrible
And they didn't deserve it then either. They just played a mix of worse teams, as well as getting INCREDIBLY lucky on a few last second plays
That’s inherently part of the context though. You could say that about any game. There are always narrow misses and close calls.
People will prob call me a homer, but I kinda do believe that this team is a 9-8 football team (I believe that 9-8 football teams have fundamental problems) that just had some bad luck, which we see every year for some average football teams.
They had really bad one score game luck, which is ok considering last season. They are second in dropped passes (I believe), something that is largely considered non-sticky season to season, and so far they have played the 3rd or 4th hardest SOS. If you strip the name, players, and coaches from the team and just look at them as an average football team, yeah given all the factors they prob would be under .500.
Based on the games I watched, it felt less like luck and more the team was not making those key plays they did in their better years. Like there were two plays in a row in I think the Cowboys game where the defense had a chance to generate a turnover and they failed at both. In the years where KC had the devil magic meme on their side they make at least one of those plays. But the team didn't seem to have that same edge that lets key plays go their way more often than normal teams do.
Last year the chiefs were realy good at getting in a position where they could profit from good luck. This year they seem to shoot themselves in the foot just befor
This team was absolutely putrid in the Red Zone this year. It really boosts the DVOA when you're efficient between the 20s, it ultimately played into the defenses hands.
The inability to pop the top off the defense (Mahomes was pretty bad with his deep balls all year) and just shoddy red zone offense play calling. This team desperately needs a receiver over 6 foot that can make a contested catch.
This is why I’m alright with us taking Jeremiyah Love. Our pass rush would still suck though
The Chiefs are not “pretty good” they were last year, but not this year.
Most NFL games are one-score games, if you can’t win them, then unless you blow teams out 90% of the time, you simply aren’t a good team.
One score games are proven across the history of the league to be massively random no matter who’s your coach or quarterback.
Rodgers went 6-1 in 2019 after being 34-34 before hand. Mahomes just went 1-7 after being 18-0 in the past two seasons.
FWIW I legitimately believe the metric of "one score games" is incredibly flawed. Remember the raiders Broncos game a few weeks ago where the raiders kicked a last second FG to go from a 10 point game to 7 points with time expiring? It's a one score game where they never possessed the ball with a chance to win/tie.
I wish there was a way to split one score games by one score with failed possession vs one score games where you never possessed the ball with a chance to tie or win.
In my perfect world we can track all 1 score games as either successful comeback, failed comeback, or no comeback chance (insert a 4th name for when you never surrendered a comeback attempt).
Based take, there were actually a decent amount of 1 score games last year the chiefs were up early and often and let the foot off the gas. But then there were the broncos and raiders games that they absolutely had lost but won from blocked kick/fumble
Yup context is important. Might be worth including failed and succeeded onside kicks as special categories for the last possession stats because recovering an onside to get that last possession is a massive gamble with the current onside rules.
Ok I will then ask, how was the Chiefs Ls to the Broncos, Cowboys, and Chargers to name a few, bad luck?
I don't think so. Given how they actually played in those games, I would absolutely say that there was only one game the chiefs have lost, all year, that they weren't the second best team on the field, which was against Jacksonville.
The contexts of the games, I just don't think it was flukey this year as it was last year, not to mention that last year's team despite their flaws was better.
My 2 cents. Via homer vision. Tldr. I think chargers week 1 and the bills were the only 2 games where it was clear the chiefs were the worse team.
Not counting the Texans and chargers games because the oline for the chiefs was dead. Like it's one thing to have your backups in, it's another to be starting practice squad guys vs 2 of the best dlines in the league. AND STILL the chiefs were in position to win both games.
I think it was
Loss1 chargers>chiefs barely mahomes balled out, worthy got hurt and it took too long for the offense to adjust
Loss2 chiefs >= eagles dropped Kelce pass interception
Loss 3 chiefs>>jags people will hate me when I say this but the refs spotted the jags about 10 points. Plus the pick 6 was 14 points. I see the chiefs easily winning that game by 20+points
Loss 4 Bills >> chiefs chiefs got spanked in this game
Loss 5 broncos=chiefs close game that neither team seemed to want to win.
Loss 6 chiefs > cowboys once again the refs went crazy in this one. 2 huge penalties that were wrong per the broadcast that wiped 6-14 points off the board when chiefs were on offense. Dpi when Pickens and ceedee opi'd all day had to be another 7 points. I don't think the chiefs were THAT much better than the boys but definitely were not the worse team.
That’s part of the game though. Everybody deals with injuries. I’m sorry, but I don’t think that a valid excuse. You go on later to talk about practice squad guys… have you seen the chargers?
Injuries again, are a big factor in the game. You can’t rule that out. I get it, disruption, but even in that game the chiefs had nothing going apart from the Mahomes magic with the deep ball. They were down 2 scores late in that game.
The chargers I think were very clearly the better team in the first matchup.
All teams have turnovers, even on the goal line. Not to mention Kelce has had this happen like 3 times this year or whatever it was.
It was a bit of a flukey play… I still think the eagles played the better overall game.
Yeah this is a homer take easily. Considering not only the chiefs were gifted a jags turnover that they also turned into a touchdown but they also controlled the game, with the lead for most of it.
I think they were the better team… they blew it.
But that one also comes down to the failures of what the chiefs have done all year. They’ve been unimpressive on offense especially after the bye, and it cost them. The defense played good but the broncos made the plays when they needed to in the end. And the chiefs, who had the lead, missed an XP, and instead of driving down the field to win the game late after it was tied, they gave the ball back to Denver who made the right plays to win.
The chiefs offense died, again, for most of that game. The cowboys who also spotted them with great field position for their first TD, played the much better game both offensively, and defensively.
I get your point on the injuries, I threw the last 2 weeks out because a lot of people in this thread are talking about those games like they are the same as the rest of the season as far as the chiefs strength goes. If you are doing power rankings then sure it's dumb to throw it out. If you are comparing to last year and how can a team go from 15-1 to ~6-6, I don't think it's necessarily useful, unless those injuries were there for all the losses.
Side note, if what everything you said is true then the lions are super mega ass for getting blown out by the chiefs. But maybe I'm just not understanding what you are trying to say. Because if it's losing = worse, then yeah duh but then what's even the point of talking about the game
You mention Denver in literally every comment
All I can say is Ryshee Rice cost himself millions with that hit and run. If he doesn't get suspended, there's no doubt in my mind KC starts the season better than 3-3, and that changes the playoff picture a bit.
If they were 8-6 right now, with an early season win over SD, they'd still have a shot at a wildcard spot. And that argument is absolutely going to be made when it comes time to renegotiate Rice's contract.
Makes sense. I remember them looking like not a great football team but were freaking 13-1 and I was going crazy
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Ignoring maths is not the way to go
Is that including their 38-0 loss to the Broncos while resting their starters in Week 18? Because while they definitely had more wins than their point differential would imply, that game shouldn't be included in a serious Pythagorean analysis.
Doesn't that just mean they should have been 12-4 last year and still a really good team?
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What? The Pythagorean expected record not giving you the full picture?
What does that even mean? What is the difference between last year’s team and this one other than record?
Regression
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Good teams don’t on the whole win a higher rate of one-score games, they play in fewer of them (which is why good teams on average have higher overall point differentials). Same the other way for bad teams. This is universal for sports, and really anything that involves comparing quantities of things.
It’s not a complicated thing: good teams tend to outscore their opponents by more. If you are outscoring your opponent by more, fluky plays hurt you less.
People really forget how many wins they lucked into.
The doink, the blocked fg, the botched snap, the list goes on.
The doink wasn't luck, always the dumbest one people bring up and why people can't have intelligent discourse about this topic
Chiefs were the frauds all along
It's a lot of what I was saying last year. The chiefs were a team that was among the most fortunate of all time (I say fortune as opposed to luck because I feel fortune implies it wasn't just chance, rather they had a role in making wins) probably winning at minimum 4-5 games they shouldn't have last year.
Don't like that argument? Fine. But here's another one. What's worse was that even in the games they absolutely should've won, they often played only well enough to barely win.
Take the Panthers game last year. That Carolina team was not great, I think even Panthers fans will tell you that. And yet Carolina marched down the field late in that game to tie it. Sure, KC kicked a game winner after some great plays by Mahomes, but why was that game even in the balance?
Why was the Falcons game where Atlanta couldn't move the ball after their offensive line died in the 2nd quarter, in the balance till the final play?
Why were the Saints only down 3 points in the middle of the 4th quarter despite the Chiefs controlling play?
Why did the bad Raiders have a chance to win that game outright in KC in the final seconds before flubbing it?
The 2024 chiefs I will say based on how I saw them play week in and week out, were the most thoroughly unconvincing team to have ever played in a Super Bowl. Ever. They were never dominant, never exciting, but routinely fortunate.
Panthers lost in OT the week after to the Bucs, and the week after that were leading the Eagles into the 4th quarter. Do you ask why those games were even in the balance?
Why was a division game against a hated rival close....you're really fucking reaching here. Division games can always be tough no matter the records.
The rest of your examples can be summed up by saying that even though we're one of the best teams at converting 4th downs, Andy would almost never go for them and instead settle for field goals.
Also nice touch acting like "most thoroughly unconvincing team to make a super bowl" is somehow a bad thing, and also completely ignoring that the 10-7 Bengals who were 7-6 and 3rd in their division with 4 games to go stumbled to a Super bowl almost entirely on turnover luck a couple years ago.
No. Because the problem with the chiefs was that it was routine. Every team has a weak game where they play down or even lose to a team they should beat handily. With the chiefs it was nearly every week.
They were 2-10 at the time.
I get it, division rival… but did you see how badly the chiefs mauled them this year? It’s not a reach. Even in division, bad teams are bad teams.
I think that’s a pretty crummy excuse. Nobody was really all that impressed with the chiefs offense last year. If they were “conservative” with their approach to taking the points, that’s a failure by them to make things needlessly difficult when they don’t have to be.
But in the nature of that season, the bengals in spite of their flaws, beat some good teams as underdogs, and fought till the very end. They were upstarts and they surprised everybody. Not to mention they played the AFC championship very well.
What did the 2024 chiefs do, all year, to convince anybody of anything? I’m serious. What moments can you look back on as a real triumph, or as a standout moment in that season, when a lot of their wins were either keeping games far closer than needed to be, or benefitting from ineptitude and/or others misfortune?
Chiefs were 3rd in 4th down conversion %, but 26th in 4th down attempts. You asked why the saints were only down 3 in the middle of the 4th (which isn't accurate as the Chiefs scored to go up 10 points with 11:56 left, but your comments are mostly made with a dislike of the chiefs and not really that interested in being factual so it's ok), it's because we kicked 4 field goals that game inside the 40 instead of going for it on 4th down. Same with the Falcons game where we scored on 5/9 drives but 3 of them were field goals.
Another thing to consider is the Chiefs led the league in average drive time last year, and teams generally try to eat clock against the chiefs to keep Mahomes off the field, which generally leads to games with less drives, and less opportunities for games to get out of hand.
What did the Chiefs do last year to convince anyone of anything? They went 7-1 against playoff teams in the regular season while missing their WR1, WR2, WR4, RB1, and playing 5 different people at LT including our LG. If half your schedules is against playoff teams and you go 7-1, who the fuck cares if the games were close. Do you believe they need to play all 17 games against playoff teams to be impressed? Beat the Texans in the divisional by 2 scores, and scored 32 on the Bills in the AFCCG.
I absolutely love the gall of someone with a Lions flair acting like nothing impressive happened from a team that went 15-1 regular season with their starters and went to the super bowl. It's so odd that Lions fans are soo pissy about the Chiefs always, when we barely ever play and aren't even in the same conference.
Anyways, you're not here for facts and reality, you just want to shit on the Chiefs with garbage opinions not really backed up by anything, and you can do that without me.
If either of the 15-2 teams were worse than their record I’d go with the one that got thoroughly beat at home in their first playoff game
“Ever.”
No recency bias there at all? Lol
I’m quite serious. I can’t think of a single team that was less impressive
All other teams had better moments throughout the year. Either as underdogs with triumphant wins or as favorites that personified dominance.
The 2024 chiefs were an overdog that played so boring and so lethargically they never impressed anybody.
Maybeeee beating the Bills in the AFCCG?
… a bills team they’ve beaten in the playoffs 3 times before last year?
And the big defining play people remember from that game was, again, not a great play by them but by the bills failing at a tush push?
What did the chiefs in 2024 do that other teams haven’t done better? Even for other teams that have gotten thoroughly blow out in super bowls they don’t match.
I really don’t understand what you’re on about. Point differential?! They went 15-1 and that’s all that mattered. They had been picking back of the draft every year for 7 years, it’s almost like that means other teams get better athletes with every pic so they’re obviously not gonna be just blowing everyone out
Didn't stop the patriots or steelers or packers for all of those years. It's a bad excuse.
not to mention, again, that how they got to 15-1 in meaningful games is what we're talking about. Thoroughly unimpressive, and it can be sufficiently argued they probably should've lost 4-5 of those games at least.
Absolutely could have lost 4, just like 2023 got super unlucky and went 11-6 but still won the fucking Super Bowl.
Stop comparing to the old patriots lol compare to every other NFL team 2018-2024 and each one of those teams would kill for the run the chiefs have had
I’m not talking about the patriots.
I’m not even talking about the 2023 chiefs, who I agree got unlucky in a few of those losses.
I’m talking, strictly, about how the 2024 chiefs are the most unimpressive, uninspiring team to have ever made a Super Bowl.
They have no great moments. No season defining plays or games, no excitement. They were neither dominant nor interesting. They were a boring favorite that kept games against bad teams closer than they needed to be, and in the other games they won, it happened due to good fortune, or conversely bad fortune/ineptitude by the opposition.
When I consider the worst teams in league history to appear in a Super Bowl… they’re bottom 5 all time. If not dead last. Even against the other teams in the Super Bowl that got truly blown out, they don’t have the season long or team accolades many of those other teams got, nor do they have that moment of triumph in the face of adversity.
Last year they won a ton of "coinflip" 1 score games featuring a handful of ref fun times as well. This year theyve had neither go their way
They got the most out of their "window". If it was a fraud, it was a fraud against a copycat league that didn't notice, lol.
We had no blowout wins last year until week 17
We have multiple blowout wins this year but it didn’t translate to being a better team. This team performs worse late in games when they need it the most
I think it was Nate Silver or someone else on 538 that argued that one score games are basically random, they don't tell you much about which team is truly better. You can predict which teams are likely to regress the next year by looking at who has won too many of their one score games, which is what we saw with the Chiefs this year.
The Chiefs whole run has actually had a lot of luck involved beyond just the one score games. There was a pretty fun YouTube video essay I saw on this recently.
Regression to the mean
The football gods just adjusted some stats and removed some outliers
Well it was proven that the chiefs were bailed out by the refs more than any other team by a significant margin to the point that it was obvious to a casual viewer. Now that they had to stop we see them suck
Last year it seemed the Chief a convenient call at the exact perfect time every single game that allowed them to continue a key drive or to stop the opponent from continuing one. And that was huge in letting them clutch out those games. This year, those types of calls have not been there and they lost.
Not only have they not been there but those call have been actively been going against them throughout the game. Saw a stat that the chiefs were hurt the most by penalties over expected more than all but 2 other teams
In the game against the Cowboys the refs were so clearly against the Chiefs
There was a clear initiative by the NFL to tag the chiefs with just awful, brutal calls this year, trying to prove to the fans that the NFL isn't gaming the games.
But that should just confirm every suspicion folks had for the last 5 years. But, who cares, it's dunk on the Chiefs time baby!
Plenty of people last season were trying to beat the drum of they aren't as good as their record. And it's this season where they are better than their record.
I feel like they are as good as a 10-11 win team both seasons.
I’ve been saying this since week 1 of last year, we cannot keep getting away with this.
And look where we are now. Voodoo magic can only get you so far
I’ll always go back to the Raiders game they played last year where the Raiders are setting up for game winning field goal, botch the snap and the Chiefs win.
sure, they were incredibly lucky last year and incredibly unlucky this year, but bottom line is they haven't been a true juggernaut since 2022 (2023 ring notwithstanding)
sometimes you mean to regress
sometimes you regress to the mean
the difference between a great team and good teams is how consistnetly they win a 'toss up' game (to use a bill simmonsism)
if you were in a 1 score game in the 4th q with brady or manning or mahommes (til this year), you could just about wrap up your L
a good team will win more than they lose. a bad team will lose more than they win. a terrible team isnt even in many close games.
the team doesnt have the depth to pull wins out of their ass anymore. they got a bit lucky last year and could squeeze enough out of the offence/defence to just about get there. this year their defence cant get the critical stop. and the offence just cant get the critical first downs
Happens all the time.
Falcons this season are 5-9 but could have been 10-4
Two leagues have officiating scandals and the Chiefs stop winning all the one score games, hm...
They made the plays that they had too in crunch time to win those games
This year they haven’t
It’s the 15 win game curse
Lions are going through something similar
“You’re welcome.”
—LA Chargers.
Very eerie. I am actually kinda scared right now.
Refs aren’t bailing them out this year
This is how they got to the superbowl and blew it so spectacularly. You can only coast and get lucky for so long.
last year they won because of black magic, there's no other explanation
The, throw the Patrick Mahomes bandaid on top of no notable WRs (for skill), no running game, and a mediocre OL ended up not being as successful with an even worse running game and OL this year.
That and their defense got another year older after playing more games than anyone.
Instead of the Chiefs making big plays in key moments, we've faltered in those spots every time it seems
No. The net score record of the Chiefs is just being biased by the Raiders giving up and losing 31-0 and the Redskins flailing almost as badly. Otherwise you'd be able to see just how bad the Chiefs' output has been.
A lot of Chiefs losses also look a lot closer than they really are because teams know Mahomes is going to score in garbage time to reduce the embarrassment, but they're not going to let him win. Let Mahomes sling a few long passes for a touchdown to reduce the margin and then you can kneel out the clock.
Did we all forget how Kansas City was bailed out by the refs pretty much every single game last season to have that record? I remember this subreddit losing their minds because of it.
No help by the refs this year compared to last year, and they’ve been exposed
Yeah referees not giving them calls
Say the line, Chiefs fans!
the one team that can’t say a damn thing to the chiefs 😭
2-0 versus the 9ers in Superbowls?
Don't forget to drink your Ovaltine?
Getting bailed out by refs every game to not changes a bunch of 1 possession games’ outcomes. Unsurprising.
Glad the refs stopped their bs.
fewer checks to the refs cleared