Nothing that dramatic is on the horizon for the US. It’s still a behemoth, even if the administration is sabotaging it.
The things to look for aren’t the big bangs and investors jumping from sky scrapers as the US economy utterly implodes. It’s the slow decline, it’s the countries that used to depend on the US suddenly not, it’s the US slowly ceasing to be the focal point of the world economy as it forces companies in other counties to stop doing doing business there … it’s the investors moving from the US to China.
None of that would have been possible even 20 years ago. It used to be that “when the US gets a sniffle, the world catches a cold”. Countries simply managing to grow in spite of the US is actually a massive tidal wave of change. It’s not as visible to the American public, which is largely ignorant to how US power works, but it’s just as impactful as another Black Tuesday. And, by the time Americans notice how demeaned the US is economically and militarily, it’ll too late. It’ll be years from now, and Trump will probably have died from old age and not subject to the consequences of his choices.
The OP story is one of those quiet but massive changes.
I've harped on this since the first mistaken presidency. We are the Elves of Middle Earth, and by this one buffoon's actions, we have been lessened enough that the other countries surrounding us will look elsewhere for ... at this point, everything.
Didnt start from Trump. Started in 2008 when they kept printing money. Printed for any problems they faced while letting the rich get richer.
35trillion in tax havens doing nothing productive while inequality has widened. People wanted change so they voted trump for hope or ignorance, or maybe they wanted to speed up the process of crumbling.
Funnily enough, the US is now 35 trillion in debt. Anyone in charge is going to have a bad time trying to get it down.
At this point over 38 trillion in debt and close to 39 trillion, and the way the US national debt is been racing ahead we'll be in 40 trillion debt in early 2026. If the Federal Reserve really is stupid enough to do another rate cut amidst inflation or QE or just slow badly needed QT, then the US dollar collapses too and we can't finance our debt. Treasury yields are already rising and mortgage rates shooting up despite the previous rate cuts, the world is not going to keep holding dollars as a reserve currency if our own institutions keep inflating their value away and running the money printer without dealing with the basic issues. Trump won't even release key economic data for Q3 or Q4 so we don't even know how bad it is.
The US government may seriously bail them out. These companies are part of the core backbone of US tech, and I doubt the US would let them collapse, especially when there's an AI tech race between US and China.
However, the cost of bailing them out will very likely sink the economy either way.
A bailout should include nationalization. If a company shits the bed and will die without government intervention.. without the citizen's tax dollars propping it up.. then it should belong to The People from then on!
With what money?
The debt to GDP ratio is near unsustainable.
And that was before Trump upset the economic and diplomatic system that was America's unlimited money spigot.
This, we're getting dangerous close to $40 trillion national debt and Trump won't even release economics numbers for Q3 or Q4 because they're such a disaster as the little bits of data leaking through already showing. The US dollar is becoming worthless and not a reserve currency much longer, even China's yuan is rising against it. There's nothing left in the tank of to do bailout with.
As it stands the debt issued versus the earnings of the tech companies issuing them is not big enough to cause a depression. There's no systemic failure of the financial system on the horizon..... Yet.
But another couple years of issuing 100 billion of bonds for GPUs and data centers will definitely get us there.
Problem is they’re also engaging in circular investing and inflating the valuations. Most of the recent growth is based on the assumption that AI will lead to big returns. The question is when that will actually materialize.
Yeah there's going to be a pretty big market decline when that stops but we only get a depression when there's a systemic risk that impacts the financial system. You need a big systemic contagion that hits the banks so nobody can finance their day to day operations
Combine that with the nonsensical trade and foreign policies of this administration threatening the dollar’s position as the global reserve currency I would say there is a very real systemic risk of the financial system imploding. The current global order is becoming increasingly unstable for a variety of reasons. My worry is that another U.S. financial crisis in this situation will set off a sort of chain reaction that escalates all the other problems happening.
Like I said, you have to find something that implodes all the banks all at once. I don't see it right now, but we might get there. Tariffs and dollar reserve currency status aren't going to do that.
This. Mimicking the dot com bubbles overinvestment in infrastructure without profitability. It will continue to drive GDP growth until it pops (basically all 2025 gdp growth is a result of AI investment) at which point we'll enter a good ole fashioned recession. Gradual deterioration of the labor market seems to me to be pointing that way as well
Yeah it's already looking like a bad recession even with it and now the artificial sugar high of the AI bubble hype and circular deals is already pulling back. There's no ROI there and the AI companies have tens or hundreds of billions of dollars in debt, even the most optimistic assumptions they have no way to turn a profit or even cut their losses much. Now data center builds slowing and we're finding out teh data centers quickly go obsolete, many are getting fried circuits and hard to manage with little money to build new ones or even replace the ones going bust.
Worst mal-investment of assets in history, they'll be begging for a government bailout but with now approaching $40 trillion in national debt there's nothing left to do the bailing out. Trump won't even release Q3 or Q4 economic numbers because they're so awful, the little that does leak out shows disaster in the US economy already taking place.
Essentially the US dollar has devalued 12% since the start of 2025, so cash is the last asset you want right now. But institutions have to put their money somewhere, so it flows into the market creating new and higher all time highs over and over again, or into gold, other global currencies, or even Bitcoin. Anything but the US dollar. That's why the market seemingly keeps moving up when the country is doing so badly, our dollar ain't worth shit, so adding to the market is the less risky choice right now
That's also why more money is leaving the US too, basically everything non-dollar becomes a safe haven and foreign assets and bonds do too. The danger with investing in the US stock market is even with the US dollar collapsing like this, the stocks have no way to back such valuations. Tesla and Palantir have PE ratios of hundreds and already seeing falling sales and market share, so American investors have a terrible choice. If they keep money in dollars they lose value, if they move into stock market they enter a dangerous casino in one of the biggest bubbles in history.
So more moving to foreign assets. This also why the dollar being eroded as reserve currency, it's not holding it's value and foreign central banks and investors, even American ones aren't going to continue holding a "safe haven" that's just being depreciated with stupid money printing and coddling billionaires with circular deals and Ponzi schemes while so many imbalances get worse and each dollar becomes more worthless. This may ultimately be the biggest source of damage from Trump administration among many, although the bad policies started before them he accelerated the damage.
…because if the demand is shifting to the Chinese market, it means it has to be moving away from somewhere else. Since the US and China are the largest economies in the world, it’s safe to bet a good chunk is being taken from the US market.
It has. The dollar has been devaluing so the market looks better in dollar terms. Value the US markets in Euros, Pounds or Gold and it tells a very different story
Russia is fighting a war that has ruined them 2 years ago already, they wont recover from it and the state will shatter inevitably harder for every second its not adressed and allowed to recover.
The secret is, that its all bullshit magic. The entire so called economy isnt this mysterious thing that follows certain rules. Its all fucking theater and the rich folks dont want to go broke or have the poors start this cycle of nonsense once again.
So its all held together with scotchtape and greasy palms waiting for the world war that will sure save one of the 3 failing super powers.
Because china, china also shouldnt be doing so hot.
It's going to be interesting to see how the rest of world continues to deal with the US intentionally destroying it's own economy and international power.
Wild how many people in this country just want to burn things down and suffer.
Trump's biggest and fastest bankruptcy ever! It was hard enough to bankrupt so many casinos but at least he took a few years to do it. Now he's dumbly trying to reduce Fed independence that would destroy the US dollar overnight, wreck the dollar as reserve currency and remove what's left of confidence in the US economy. It's hard to put finger on where his worst damage is but ultimately going against basic institutions like Federal Reserve independence may be where he does the most damage.
He's basically an expert at dismantling institutions and economics and just getting started wrecking American power and confidence. He won't even release economics data for Q3 or Q4 and looks like will probably be whole of 2026 too. A true talent to fail this badly.
I think the bigger focus is going to be on the end of his first term and what happened during Biden's term, or more importantly what didn't. Nothing is really shocking about what Trump is doing, a lot is basically the same as first term. The thing to study is how they managed to stay out of jail, run in a new election and actually get elected.
I think the issue is that most Americans are clueless how the rest of the world lives/work and think that the US is the only country with a high standard of living that can dictate economic terms to the rest of the world. The rest of the world can totally bypass American made products and not miss much. That goes for aviation, medical technology, cars (especially cars since ours are gas guzzlers most of the world do not want), food products, entertainment, etc. you name it. But people here have a very false sense of superiority and you can see it in the tariffs results.
This is my experience as well. These people think that the rest of the world NEEDS the US to buy their stuff. They dont realize that other countries can fill that void and as the US declines in prosperity, other countries will improve. This group cant balance their own check books, but thinks they have a clear grasp on global economics.
It's definitely been strange to talk to people in a relatively well off place like Gatlinburg Tennessee (as one of my examples) and have them not understand that their lifestyles and options are noticeably worse than smaller, poorer towns in a place like France.
That said:
medical technology
The US has dominated scientific development for the last half century. Including drug development etc. The way we structured our system is insane and means that the cost to our citizens is initially brutal but that doesn't change where the work is mostly being done. Not that other places aren't doing amazing work, just not as much of it.
Luckily (/s), trump and republicans have just destroyed this. No one really realizes it yet but scientific development in the US is going to collapse in the next 7-20 years. Even if were to elect a perfect president next time and perfect congress and do everything exactly right.
It's already collapsing, won't take 7-20 years. We've had top researchers and professors leave a bunch of universities in Texas recently this year due to lack of funding or uncertainty of it, many American born so it's not just foreigners. It's basic survival for them, the minimizers of this problem try to pretend it's no big deal, other countries have brain drains but they forget, in American if you lose your job your health insurance goes away wiht it and then you can go bankrupt if your kid gets sick. So you have to leave the US especially if you have a family and this hurts us worse than anywhere else, at least in the UK when they had their research cuts people still got healthcare without go broke.
And that cost to our citizens doesn't help much with research or development, almost all that extra costs goes to high insurance costs and administration, very little to research. Most of the productive research is public anyway and that's the life-line getting cut, our biotech and pharma research actually falling while research in Japan, China, Europe, Korea, even South America goes ahead. Some of my family moved to Europe and Asia partially because they make good salary but lower cost-of-living and don't have to worry going broke from healthcare costs, already a lot of the top research and medical devices being done there.
Our healthcare system was always stupid and poorly put together for actual productive research but now we have the high costs without even any of the benefits, and ambitious people are moving other places.
It's probably going to end with manufacturing coming back to the US, just like Trump and MAGA wanted. It will just be in a post-Trump world, under the terms of Europe or China and not the US. The global consumer economy is always looking for people desperate enough to make their toys and bits and parts for them for the lowest cost possible. It just never expected the USA to voluntarily join that queue. That won't stop what remains of MAGA and the Republicans from claiming it as a win though.
another big part is worried because they have been relient on the us. and that has proven to be a mistake with the current administration.
i dp believe america will be a worldpower for way beyond my lifespan. but some things have been destroyed the last years that is probably not getting fixed again.
Can't trade with the US, so the rest of the world is engaging with China even more. Nice one, Trump
Art of the deal, let's not trade with the global manufacturer we helped build, who we outsourced our entire industrial base to. Christ, we Americans are dumb AF.
That’s not what’s going on. Trade is just getting to the US in a more roundabout way. The US trade deficit continues to grow so things are making their way here one way or the other.
Technically yes but this administration is incompetent and there were carve outs and exceptions everywhere. Not to mention it doesn't really work unless you are willing to accept the pain which they weren't.
China has been itching to replace the USA as the dominant trading country for some time. Trump has given them the opportunity and China is running with it. Own goal.
Why isn't every single news outlet repeatedly saying "TRUMP HAS LOST HIS TARIFF WAR"?
Probably because they don't want a visit/investigation/indictment from the FBI, death threats from his MAGA cultists, and have the broadcast license threatened by the FCC.
Nah. New York just elected a Democratic Socialist. Then Seattle elected a Democratic Socialist. Then a Democratic Socialist just barely lost in fucking Tennessee.
If you fight through this, there's a very good chance you fall ass forward into Democratic Socialism.
The easiest thing for fascists to win is for you to give up hope and fall into apathy.
Because all the major news outlets are owned by a handful of billionaires while One Rich Asshole Called Larry Ellison tries to buy the rest of of America's major media.
The problem is more than just billionaires. Money should not be a part of governing and writing laws. Lobbying should be illegal. Legislators should not be allowed to trade stocks.
China isn't thriving, they're dealing with some pretty serious economic issues of their own right now. But yes, clearly Trump's tariffs are a dumpster fire for us.
China isn't thriving. They have huge economical problems of their own (huge youth unemployment, deflationary issues, the actual "spending power" is actually quite low, aging society etc.). Plus their political system can't have a downturn so they have to prop this export economy to the maximum. It's quite difficult to back from this system with our breaking it.
Other purely export-driven economies have previously gone tits up (Japan, Germany), because other economies have catched up to them. China is doing okayish right now but , but I would't be too optimistic about them.
China absolutely isn't thriving. Their trade surplus is climbing but their growth is slowing, their unemployment is rising, and their sovereign debt is climbing. China and the US are in a race to see who can economically implode last.
"Chinese shipments to the United States dropped 29% year-on-year in November"
That's pretty shocking, actually. I wonder specifically which industries are seeing the sharpest decline. I believe clothing has received the highest tariffs, so it would make sense if that's actually what has dropped. I guess Europe and Australia should expect more "fast fashion" to hit their markets soon.
Because they're mostly a foreign based influence campaign targeting and exploiting the dumbest and most morally corrupt people America has to offer, and turning them against the rest of America to tear it apart in any way they possibly can.
China strategically allowed sales of products and manufacturing services that enabled them to catch up to modern standards. It’s what enabled them to catch up and be able to produce top notch products now, built domestically.
You’ll notice that Google, Meta, and many other American tech services for businesses and consumers are strictly nerfed or not allowed to take hold in China while China took all of the best practices and knowledge to then build their own. China has also always had heavy import taxes on western made goods. They are the so-called ‘tariffs’ that everyone is so up in arms about.
It’s absolutely short sighted and delusional to criticize the US’s open market policies compared to china’s own market policies (and their treatment of workers/labor) and praise China. If anything, the US’ open market and free trade policies is what enabled China to grow so rapidly into what they are today. While China’s market policies injected steroids into their own domestic industries at the cost of western ones. One school of thought could even argue that US policy has harmed the US in the long run.
We also tend to forget that not even 10 years ago everyone was up in arms against China about treatment of workers in factories, child labor, their treatment of unwanted minorities such as the Uyghurs, political dissidents. All the things the western world is bashing America for supposedly doing, China’s basically been actively doing for as long as I remember. It’s basically embedded in their culture. It’s just so funny to me now reading all the comments online and the short-sightedness westerners to praise China.
It also goes to show that none of these things matter when it comes to business and economics. Nations and people will do business and trade based on what’s best for them. China’s been gaining some ground on that lately, and anyone who thinks they’re dealing with a more ‘ethical’ nation is delusional out of their minds
Literally everything you’ve said has been true for every country that developed its domestic economy in history.
Also, America has centered itself as the buyer of last resort with the Bretton Woods agreements and hollowed its labor market out for the benefit of corporations. China is not to blame for the problems that America’s economy is facing long term.
Not sure, but from my position as a peasant I just see a lack of any real competition inside the US in general leading to declining quality...everything. So I dont really care that much where the slap on the ass comes from
Forgive me for wanting a properly cheaper EV sometime this century.
Edit; but sure lets jump to the extreme other end of the current situation with aboslutley no limits and not even contemplate some kind of mild limit/restrictions if your so afraid of unregulated competition. Not like shit has to be A or B.
I see plenty of American, Italian, German, Swedish, Korean, and Japanese EVs on U.S. roads. How is that not competition?
Allowing Chinese EVs to penetrate the market would serve to reduce competition because their labor and materials are 50-60% lower. No other country in the world (with an auto industry) can match that.
I'm not an economist. I'm just a dude who cant afford most EVs in the states, but could afford a EV from China at their price point.
Thats the problem at the end of the day from my perspective. How that gets fixed is above my paygrade (literally in this case), but it doesnt feel like it's been getting fixed. I understand it's a complex a situation, but I only have so many fucks to give, and the sanctity of the american market isnt one of them
Because non of the nations you have stated, except for Tesla, is actually competitive. The fact you see Japanese and Swedish EVs on U.S. roads shows how little competition there is. It's like saying:
I see plenty of Motorola and Blackberry phones in Rhodesia, how is that not competition?
Because they are imports, which face a blanket 15% tariff. They also require a great deal of logistics. In the case of EU EVs, they are shipped 5,000 miles and then require another 1,000-3,000 miles of transportation from an East Coast port (likely Baltimore).
So yes, of course Tesla is the cheapest option. They have warehouses in CA, MI, MN, NY, IL, TX, NV, and Ontario. The most travel a Tesla requires to be delivered is several hundred miles.
I know what you are trying to get at, and frankly it's just not the case.
No, Tesla or Japanese car makers aren't making less competitive cars because of cost, they aren't putting less stuff into their cars because of the cost, they simply don't have the technology that Chinese EV have.
China is ahead in the R&D space in EV just like the earth is round, there's no way you can spin this the other way.
They allow Tesla to compete in their market and they give Tesla the same subsidies as the domestic producers (both direct subsidies and state help and market-based from ICE car manufacturers who don't meet the EV quotas).
The US treats trading partners with belligerence and tries to bully them into agreeing to random terms made up by Trump that can change at any time. The Chinese treat trading partners with respect and leverages it's massive industrial capacity and appetite for resources to make deals.
The US is seriously under-appreciating the importance of mutual respect in dealing with trading partners. The US centric world is quickly fading.
I was with you on that first sentence, but let's not kid ourselves into thinking China is virtuous in that regard. It treats its trading partners with the minimum respect required to keep trade flowing while they steal their competitor's IP. The only thing we can say right now is that they aren't as dumb as the Trump regime, that's all.
You can't expect a country to build products for your country and not learn about those products and come up with ways to make them better and cheaper. Japan literally did the same thing in the 1950's...
Following the Trump tariffs, Heard Island and McDonald Islands couldn't realistically engage in meaningful trade with the United States. Therefore they sought trade agreements with the next biggest player, China.
Imagine, as the American Empire, you choose to fuck with China in a desperate attempt to re-assert your declining global hegemony by starting a trade war that increases their trade surplus at the expense of your own tax base. Christ, the U.S. is seriously going to ‘cut off its nose to spite its face’ all the way into straight collapse because of a few malignant, megalomaniacal narcissists.
Post trump America was able to absorb any number of Chinese import because China simply reinvest the USD they made (selling their stuff) to the USA bond market. The rest of the World simply cannot do that, European leaders are already complaining about the trade deficit with China and using the word tariff. China needs to convince its people to spend more money consuming more products, or it will reverse.
I feel sorry for the next president. They won't have time to do anything more significant because they'll have to undo all this Trump stuff to Make America Normal Again. Then they'll be regarded as a bad president because they had to spend their term undoing it all just to get us back to a state of equilibrium.
I really don’t understand how this hasn’t been affected our market or our indexes. Something is detached.
Massive spending and circular investing in AI is propping it up.
And when it finally does first it will make Black Friday look like child's play.
Black Monday*
Nothing that dramatic is on the horizon for the US. It’s still a behemoth, even if the administration is sabotaging it.
The things to look for aren’t the big bangs and investors jumping from sky scrapers as the US economy utterly implodes. It’s the slow decline, it’s the countries that used to depend on the US suddenly not, it’s the US slowly ceasing to be the focal point of the world economy as it forces companies in other counties to stop doing doing business there … it’s the investors moving from the US to China.
None of that would have been possible even 20 years ago. It used to be that “when the US gets a sniffle, the world catches a cold”. Countries simply managing to grow in spite of the US is actually a massive tidal wave of change. It’s not as visible to the American public, which is largely ignorant to how US power works, but it’s just as impactful as another Black Tuesday. And, by the time Americans notice how demeaned the US is economically and militarily, it’ll too late. It’ll be years from now, and Trump will probably have died from old age and not subject to the consequences of his choices.
The OP story is one of those quiet but massive changes.
I've harped on this since the first mistaken presidency. We are the Elves of Middle Earth, and by this one buffoon's actions, we have been lessened enough that the other countries surrounding us will look elsewhere for ... at this point, everything.
Part of your story sounds very similar to what happened to the UK after WW2
Didnt start from Trump. Started in 2008 when they kept printing money. Printed for any problems they faced while letting the rich get richer.
35trillion in tax havens doing nothing productive while inequality has widened. People wanted change so they voted trump for hope or ignorance, or maybe they wanted to speed up the process of crumbling.
Funnily enough, the US is now 35 trillion in debt. Anyone in charge is going to have a bad time trying to get it down.
At this point over 38 trillion in debt and close to 39 trillion, and the way the US national debt is been racing ahead we'll be in 40 trillion debt in early 2026. If the Federal Reserve really is stupid enough to do another rate cut amidst inflation or QE or just slow badly needed QT, then the US dollar collapses too and we can't finance our debt. Treasury yields are already rising and mortgage rates shooting up despite the previous rate cuts, the world is not going to keep holding dollars as a reserve currency if our own institutions keep inflating their value away and running the money printer without dealing with the basic issues. Trump won't even release key economic data for Q3 or Q4 so we don't even know how bad it is.
The US government may seriously bail them out. These companies are part of the core backbone of US tech, and I doubt the US would let them collapse, especially when there's an AI tech race between US and China.
However, the cost of bailing them out will very likely sink the economy either way.
A bailout should include nationalization. If a company shits the bed and will die without government intervention.. without the citizen's tax dollars propping it up.. then it should belong to The People from then on!
Sounds like commie talk. Accurate commie talk!
Then all of their assets should be seized and placed in a public trust run by the federal government.
If my tax money is going to bail them out, then I should see returns on my tax money.
With what money?
The debt to GDP ratio is near unsustainable.
And that was before Trump upset the economic and diplomatic system that was America's unlimited money spigot.
This, we're getting dangerous close to $40 trillion national debt and Trump won't even release economics numbers for Q3 or Q4 because they're such a disaster as the little bits of data leaking through already showing. The US dollar is becoming worthless and not a reserve currency much longer, even China's yuan is rising against it. There's nothing left in the tank of to do bailout with.
Yeah my bad.
Fat Tuesday?
Humpday?\ or perhaps Thirsty Thursday?
Freaky Friday, even.
As it stands the debt issued versus the earnings of the tech companies issuing them is not big enough to cause a depression. There's no systemic failure of the financial system on the horizon..... Yet.
But another couple years of issuing 100 billion of bonds for GPUs and data centers will definitely get us there.
Problem is they’re also engaging in circular investing and inflating the valuations. Most of the recent growth is based on the assumption that AI will lead to big returns. The question is when that will actually materialize.
Yeah there's going to be a pretty big market decline when that stops but we only get a depression when there's a systemic risk that impacts the financial system. You need a big systemic contagion that hits the banks so nobody can finance their day to day operations
Combine that with the nonsensical trade and foreign policies of this administration threatening the dollar’s position as the global reserve currency I would say there is a very real systemic risk of the financial system imploding. The current global order is becoming increasingly unstable for a variety of reasons. My worry is that another U.S. financial crisis in this situation will set off a sort of chain reaction that escalates all the other problems happening.
Like I said, you have to find something that implodes all the banks all at once. I don't see it right now, but we might get there. Tariffs and dollar reserve currency status aren't going to do that.
This. Mimicking the dot com bubbles overinvestment in infrastructure without profitability. It will continue to drive GDP growth until it pops (basically all 2025 gdp growth is a result of AI investment) at which point we'll enter a good ole fashioned recession. Gradual deterioration of the labor market seems to me to be pointing that way as well
Yeah it's already looking like a bad recession even with it and now the artificial sugar high of the AI bubble hype and circular deals is already pulling back. There's no ROI there and the AI companies have tens or hundreds of billions of dollars in debt, even the most optimistic assumptions they have no way to turn a profit or even cut their losses much. Now data center builds slowing and we're finding out teh data centers quickly go obsolete, many are getting fried circuits and hard to manage with little money to build new ones or even replace the ones going bust.
Worst mal-investment of assets in history, they'll be begging for a government bailout but with now approaching $40 trillion in national debt there's nothing left to do the bailing out. Trump won't even release Q3 or Q4 economic numbers because they're so awful, the little that does leak out shows disaster in the US economy already taking place.
8 dudes can officially throw around more money then the 90% so no digital numbers get “hurt” even though it’s all disintegrating
Essentially the US dollar has devalued 12% since the start of 2025, so cash is the last asset you want right now. But institutions have to put their money somewhere, so it flows into the market creating new and higher all time highs over and over again, or into gold, other global currencies, or even Bitcoin. Anything but the US dollar. That's why the market seemingly keeps moving up when the country is doing so badly, our dollar ain't worth shit, so adding to the market is the less risky choice right now
US inflation was 12% this year?
That's also why more money is leaving the US too, basically everything non-dollar becomes a safe haven and foreign assets and bonds do too. The danger with investing in the US stock market is even with the US dollar collapsing like this, the stocks have no way to back such valuations. Tesla and Palantir have PE ratios of hundreds and already seeing falling sales and market share, so American investors have a terrible choice. If they keep money in dollars they lose value, if they move into stock market they enter a dangerous casino in one of the biggest bubbles in history.
So more moving to foreign assets. This also why the dollar being eroded as reserve currency, it's not holding it's value and foreign central banks and investors, even American ones aren't going to continue holding a "safe haven" that's just being depreciated with stupid money printing and coddling billionaires with circular deals and Ponzi schemes while so many imbalances get worse and each dollar becomes more worthless. This may ultimately be the biggest source of damage from Trump administration among many, although the bad policies started before them he accelerated the damage.
I'm convinced the market is purely vibes based now, and doesn't rely on pesky things like data, stats, etc.
If it wasn't for AI we would probably be in a recessions or pretty close to Flat GDP growth.
As a Chinese person, I don't quite understand why an increase in China's exports to the world would impact the U.S. stock market?
…because if the demand is shifting to the Chinese market, it means it has to be moving away from somewhere else. Since the US and China are the largest economies in the world, it’s safe to bet a good chunk is being taken from the US market.
It has. The dollar has been devaluing so the market looks better in dollar terms. Value the US markets in Euros, Pounds or Gold and it tells a very different story
We are in bubble territory. Major corporations are sticking all their profits in the stock market to make it look normal
Print baby print!
Russia is fighting a war that has ruined them 2 years ago already, they wont recover from it and the state will shatter inevitably harder for every second its not adressed and allowed to recover.
The secret is, that its all bullshit magic. The entire so called economy isnt this mysterious thing that follows certain rules. Its all fucking theater and the rich folks dont want to go broke or have the poors start this cycle of nonsense once again.
So its all held together with scotchtape and greasy palms waiting for the world war that will sure save one of the 3 failing super powers.
Because china, china also shouldnt be doing so hot.
Can't trade with the US, so the rest of the world is engaging with China even more. Nice one, Trump
It's going to be interesting to see how the rest of world continues to deal with the US intentionally destroying it's own economy and international power.
Wild how many people in this country just want to burn things down and suffer.
Same way the world dealt with the British Empire in decline.
Opportunistically.
Can't blame them for that.
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There’s no way I could anticipated that the US would give away all its advantages on purpose. It’s inconceivable!
History books are going to have a section on Trumps second term and how he was able to screw the U.S. economy in less than four years.
Less than a year.
Not even six months.
Trump's biggest and fastest bankruptcy ever! It was hard enough to bankrupt so many casinos but at least he took a few years to do it. Now he's dumbly trying to reduce Fed independence that would destroy the US dollar overnight, wreck the dollar as reserve currency and remove what's left of confidence in the US economy. It's hard to put finger on where his worst damage is but ultimately going against basic institutions like Federal Reserve independence may be where he does the most damage.
He's basically an expert at dismantling institutions and economics and just getting started wrecking American power and confidence. He won't even release economics data for Q3 or Q4 and looks like will probably be whole of 2026 too. A true talent to fail this badly.
I think the bigger focus is going to be on the end of his first term and what happened during Biden's term, or more importantly what didn't. Nothing is really shocking about what Trump is doing, a lot is basically the same as first term. The thing to study is how they managed to stay out of jail, run in a new election and actually get elected.
Once your lose customers it costs so much more to gain them back IF ever
I think the issue is that most Americans are clueless how the rest of the world lives/work and think that the US is the only country with a high standard of living that can dictate economic terms to the rest of the world. The rest of the world can totally bypass American made products and not miss much. That goes for aviation, medical technology, cars (especially cars since ours are gas guzzlers most of the world do not want), food products, entertainment, etc. you name it. But people here have a very false sense of superiority and you can see it in the tariffs results.
This is my experience as well. These people think that the rest of the world NEEDS the US to buy their stuff. They dont realize that other countries can fill that void and as the US declines in prosperity, other countries will improve. This group cant balance their own check books, but thinks they have a clear grasp on global economics.
One could think of it as a wealth transfer on an international scale.
Is this the 'trickle down' we've been hearing about for so long?
Or ‘trickle out’ if you will.
It's definitely been strange to talk to people in a relatively well off place like Gatlinburg Tennessee (as one of my examples) and have them not understand that their lifestyles and options are noticeably worse than smaller, poorer towns in a place like France.
That said:
The US has dominated scientific development for the last half century. Including drug development etc. The way we structured our system is insane and means that the cost to our citizens is initially brutal but that doesn't change where the work is mostly being done. Not that other places aren't doing amazing work, just not as much of it.
Luckily (/s), trump and republicans have just destroyed this. No one really realizes it yet but scientific development in the US is going to collapse in the next 7-20 years. Even if were to elect a perfect president next time and perfect congress and do everything exactly right.
Yep, the biggest nail in the coffin that can be done is impact scientific research. It's hard to start it and it's extremely important
itll be interesting to see how the brain drain from the us to other countries (mostly asian) shifts med tech and scientific development.
It's already collapsing, won't take 7-20 years. We've had top researchers and professors leave a bunch of universities in Texas recently this year due to lack of funding or uncertainty of it, many American born so it's not just foreigners. It's basic survival for them, the minimizers of this problem try to pretend it's no big deal, other countries have brain drains but they forget, in American if you lose your job your health insurance goes away wiht it and then you can go bankrupt if your kid gets sick. So you have to leave the US especially if you have a family and this hurts us worse than anywhere else, at least in the UK when they had their research cuts people still got healthcare without go broke.
And that cost to our citizens doesn't help much with research or development, almost all that extra costs goes to high insurance costs and administration, very little to research. Most of the productive research is public anyway and that's the life-line getting cut, our biotech and pharma research actually falling while research in Japan, China, Europe, Korea, even South America goes ahead. Some of my family moved to Europe and Asia partially because they make good salary but lower cost-of-living and don't have to worry going broke from healthcare costs, already a lot of the top research and medical devices being done there.
Our healthcare system was always stupid and poorly put together for actual productive research but now we have the high costs without even any of the benefits, and ambitious people are moving other places.
But having the best drug research doesn't mean much if those drugs aren't accessible to others
it's the result of previous generation's extreme successes... it breeds clueless morons not having to work as hard and a slow decline.
The US economy is cannibalizing itself, let's see how long it will take to course correct
Parts of it will never be coming back.
That's part of the correction
But it should be obvious that I’m Exceptional!
Well, they seem to be using the Trump strategy.
It's probably going to end with manufacturing coming back to the US, just like Trump and MAGA wanted. It will just be in a post-Trump world, under the terms of Europe or China and not the US. The global consumer economy is always looking for people desperate enough to make their toys and bits and parts for them for the lowest cost possible. It just never expected the USA to voluntarily join that queue. That won't stop what remains of MAGA and the Republicans from claiming it as a win though.
a big part of the world wants the us to fail.
another big part is worried because they have been relient on the us. and that has proven to be a mistake with the current administration.
i dp believe america will be a worldpower for way beyond my lifespan. but some things have been destroyed the last years that is probably not getting fixed again.
At this point I don't believe that the US will be a world power by the the of the decade aside from in their own minds
Art of the deal, let's not trade with the global manufacturer we helped build, who we outsourced our entire industrial base to. Christ, we Americans are dumb AF.
Let's not pretend that this isn't on purpose. Krasnov's doing his job.
That’s not what’s going on. Trade is just getting to the US in a more roundabout way. The US trade deficit continues to grow so things are making their way here one way or the other.
Trade deficit was front loaded for 2025, before tariffs came into effect. Check post-August numbers and get back to us.
Isn't that the opposite of what the tariffs intended?
Technically yes but this administration is incompetent and there were carve outs and exceptions everywhere. Not to mention it doesn't really work unless you are willing to accept the pain which they weren't.
China has been itching to replace the USA as the dominant trading country for some time. Trump has given them the opportunity and China is running with it. Own goal.
US is really not nearly as important nor rich as Americans like to think.
Greatest Chinese/Russian spy
Americans are too busy paying the tarrifs to engage haha
That was his handlers intention.
China is thriving, Trump is pulling back tariffs and now bailing out farmers.
Why isn't every single news outlet repeatedly saying "TRUMP HAS LOST HIS TARIFF WAR"?
Probably because they don't want a visit/investigation/indictment from the FBI, death threats from his MAGA cultists, and have the broadcast license threatened by the FCC.
all signs of a healthy country
the country was lost in 2016 - there was a brief chance of recovery in 2020. Now it's completely lost
Nah. New York just elected a Democratic Socialist. Then Seattle elected a Democratic Socialist. Then a Democratic Socialist just barely lost in fucking Tennessee.
If you fight through this, there's a very good chance you fall ass forward into Democratic Socialism.
The easiest thing for fascists to win is for you to give up hope and fall into apathy.
I know... what the hell happened... we elected one black president and the right lost their mind... I hate it here ;)
They're all owned by billionaires and only put out the message they are told to deliver. This is extremely dangerous to our democracy.
For the same reason they don't talk about how Trump is the most obvious pedophile ever.
Because most of them have decided to go all in on fascism.
Because all the major news outlets are owned by a handful of billionaires while One Rich Asshole Called Larry Ellison tries to buy the rest of of America's major media.
Republicans own the news networks.
Billionaires own the news networks, fix one and the other follows
The problem is more than just billionaires. Money should not be a part of governing and writing laws. Lobbying should be illegal. Legislators should not be allowed to trade stocks.
Because they are all 100% complicit. Even the "left leaning" ones. They are addicted to the ratings he generates.
China isn't thriving, they're dealing with some pretty serious economic issues of their own right now. But yes, clearly Trump's tariffs are a dumpster fire for us.
He's just going to tweet that it's fake and every American will believe him.
China isn't thriving. They have huge economical problems of their own (huge youth unemployment, deflationary issues, the actual "spending power" is actually quite low, aging society etc.). Plus their political system can't have a downturn so they have to prop this export economy to the maximum. It's quite difficult to back from this system with our breaking it.
Other purely export-driven economies have previously gone tits up (Japan, Germany), because other economies have catched up to them. China is doing okayish right now but , but I would't be too optimistic about them.
China absolutely isn't thriving. Their trade surplus is climbing but their growth is slowing, their unemployment is rising, and their sovereign debt is climbing. China and the US are in a race to see who can economically implode last.
Because there’s no actual criteria for winning or losing a trade war. Opinion pieces have said this though
If you’re engaging in a trade war, your economy worsens and the other thrives, you’re losing the trade war. lol
"Chinese shipments to the United States dropped 29% year-on-year in November"
That's pretty shocking, actually. I wonder specifically which industries are seeing the sharpest decline. I believe clothing has received the highest tariffs, so it would make sense if that's actually what has dropped. I guess Europe and Australia should expect more "fast fashion" to hit their markets soon.
Why does maga hate America?
Because they're mostly a foreign based influence campaign targeting and exploiting the dumbest and most morally corrupt people America has to offer, and turning them against the rest of America to tear it apart in any way they possibly can.
Imagine if Chinese EVs hadn't been practically vanned in the US.
What? we cant actually allow competition in the marketplace that would be madness! /s
Does China allow unchecked competition their market?
They allow American auto makers to sell electric cars in China.
China strategically allowed sales of products and manufacturing services that enabled them to catch up to modern standards. It’s what enabled them to catch up and be able to produce top notch products now, built domestically.
You’ll notice that Google, Meta, and many other American tech services for businesses and consumers are strictly nerfed or not allowed to take hold in China while China took all of the best practices and knowledge to then build their own. China has also always had heavy import taxes on western made goods. They are the so-called ‘tariffs’ that everyone is so up in arms about.
It’s absolutely short sighted and delusional to criticize the US’s open market policies compared to china’s own market policies (and their treatment of workers/labor) and praise China. If anything, the US’ open market and free trade policies is what enabled China to grow so rapidly into what they are today. While China’s market policies injected steroids into their own domestic industries at the cost of western ones. One school of thought could even argue that US policy has harmed the US in the long run.
We also tend to forget that not even 10 years ago everyone was up in arms against China about treatment of workers in factories, child labor, their treatment of unwanted minorities such as the Uyghurs, political dissidents. All the things the western world is bashing America for supposedly doing, China’s basically been actively doing for as long as I remember. It’s basically embedded in their culture. It’s just so funny to me now reading all the comments online and the short-sightedness westerners to praise China.
It also goes to show that none of these things matter when it comes to business and economics. Nations and people will do business and trade based on what’s best for them. China’s been gaining some ground on that lately, and anyone who thinks they’re dealing with a more ‘ethical’ nation is delusional out of their minds
Literally everything you’ve said has been true for every country that developed its domestic economy in history.
Also, America has centered itself as the buyer of last resort with the Bretton Woods agreements and hollowed its labor market out for the benefit of corporations. China is not to blame for the problems that America’s economy is facing long term.
China is invading the middle east and bombing it to shit?
The discussion is about trade surplus. Plenty of American companies sell cars in China, including Tesla.
Not sure, but from my position as a peasant I just see a lack of any real competition inside the US in general leading to declining quality...everything. So I dont really care that much where the slap on the ass comes from
Forgive me for wanting a properly cheaper EV sometime this century.
Edit; but sure lets jump to the extreme other end of the current situation with aboslutley no limits and not even contemplate some kind of mild limit/restrictions if your so afraid of unregulated competition. Not like shit has to be A or B.
I see plenty of American, Italian, German, Swedish, Korean, and Japanese EVs on U.S. roads. How is that not competition?
Allowing Chinese EVs to penetrate the market would serve to reduce competition because their labor and materials are 50-60% lower. No other country in the world (with an auto industry) can match that.
It'a not really competition when laypeople can't afford them, it's just more options for the rich. Chinese EVs are super affordable.
I'm not an economist. I'm just a dude who cant afford most EVs in the states, but could afford a EV from China at their price point.
Thats the problem at the end of the day from my perspective. How that gets fixed is above my paygrade (literally in this case), but it doesnt feel like it's been getting fixed. I understand it's a complex a situation, but I only have so many fucks to give, and the sanctity of the american market isnt one of them
Because non of the nations you have stated, except for Tesla, is actually competitive. The fact you see Japanese and Swedish EVs on U.S. roads shows how little competition there is. It's like saying:
I see plenty of Motorola and Blackberry phones in Rhodesia, how is that not competition?
Because they are imports, which face a blanket 15% tariff. They also require a great deal of logistics. In the case of EU EVs, they are shipped 5,000 miles and then require another 1,000-3,000 miles of transportation from an East Coast port (likely Baltimore).
So yes, of course Tesla is the cheapest option. They have warehouses in CA, MI, MN, NY, IL, TX, NV, and Ontario. The most travel a Tesla requires to be delivered is several hundred miles.
By competitiveness, I'm mostly talking about Technology, not cost.
Japanese and Swedish EVs are pure trash.
But cost is what underrides the amount of technology. Where does most tech originate?
I know what you are trying to get at, and frankly it's just not the case.
No, Tesla or Japanese car makers aren't making less competitive cars because of cost, they aren't putting less stuff into their cars because of the cost, they simply don't have the technology that Chinese EV have.
China is ahead in the R&D space in EV just like the earth is round, there's no way you can spin this the other way.
Isn't it Zimbabwe nowadays?
Do the Chinese call themselves the leaders of the free world and beacon of capitalism?
They allow Tesla to compete in their market and they give Tesla the same subsidies as the domestic producers (both direct subsidies and state help and market-based from ICE car manufacturers who don't meet the EV quotas).
The US treats trading partners with belligerence and tries to bully them into agreeing to random terms made up by Trump that can change at any time. The Chinese treat trading partners with respect and leverages it's massive industrial capacity and appetite for resources to make deals.
The US is seriously under-appreciating the importance of mutual respect in dealing with trading partners. The US centric world is quickly fading.
I was with you on that first sentence, but let's not kid ourselves into thinking China is virtuous in that regard. It treats its trading partners with the minimum respect required to keep trade flowing while they steal their competitor's IP. The only thing we can say right now is that they aren't as dumb as the Trump regime, that's all.
You can't expect a country to build products for your country and not learn about those products and come up with ways to make them better and cheaper. Japan literally did the same thing in the 1950's...
Following the Trump tariffs, Heard Island and McDonald Islands couldn't realistically engage in meaningful trade with the United States. Therefore they sought trade agreements with the next biggest player, China.
Penguins need to fund those tuxedos somehow.
Trump tax went wrong way, dumb dumb dumb dumb dumb
With the BRI being established, China trade will continue to flourish.
Imagine, as the American Empire, you choose to fuck with China in a desperate attempt to re-assert your declining global hegemony by starting a trade war that increases their trade surplus at the expense of your own tax base. Christ, the U.S. is seriously going to ‘cut off its nose to spite its face’ all the way into straight collapse because of a few malignant, megalomaniacal narcissists.
China Builds, the U.S. bullies.
More news at 5.
Bullies and burns our own house down.
1T$, A dream figure for any one country to achieve in this tariff riddled world.
Mr. President, I am tired of “winning”.
Does that mean the US is great again?
You showed them Donny.
Trump must have a fetish for getting his ass blasted in trade wars.
Well played, peDonald.
B-but we sell services!
Make China great again
Post trump America was able to absorb any number of Chinese import because China simply reinvest the USD they made (selling their stuff) to the USA bond market. The rest of the World simply cannot do that, European leaders are already complaining about the trade deficit with China and using the word tariff. China needs to convince its people to spend more money consuming more products, or it will reverse.
so... welcome to the decoupling?
Pretty clear signs that we've lost the trade war.
I am sooo tired of wining. This winning is making my head spin. Been winning at the grocery store every week!
Three more years of winning left mate, you can’t be content just yet! 😂
I feel sorry for the next president. They won't have time to do anything more significant because they'll have to undo all this Trump stuff to Make America Normal Again. Then they'll be regarded as a bad president because they had to spend their term undoing it all just to get us back to a state of equilibrium.
We are so royally fucked
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What now?