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BBC is reporting large, simultaneous protests throughout Iran, which include large fires. Several thousand arrests and several deaths of protesters and security forces have been confirmed, but security forces have not dispersed the majority of the protests.
The protests began in protest to further degrading economic conditions. The protesters are calling for the overthrow of the Islamist regime.
What’s different about these protests compared to previous ones, despite similarities in scale, is the presence of the exiled Crown Prince as an opposition figurehead, who has clear support among groups of protesters. There are many videos of protesters chanting “Javid Shah” (“Long Live the Shah”) and other monarchist slogans, and a few videos of protesters raising the old Imperial flag in positions of prominence. The exiled Crown Prince has also issued repeated public statements in support of the protestors.
To my knowledge, this is the first time the exiled Crown Prince has taken a meaningful role in Iranian protests. Previous protests have lacked meaningful leadership and have relied on grassroots support - this protest movement has grassroots support as well, but also has a clear opposition figurehead who would be able to lead a post-revolution Iran. The last time this happened was in 1979, when Khomeini was the clear leader in waiting and was able to take over despite many of the protesters being Liberals and Communists
I would argue that Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi probably has wider support with protesters than Ayatollah Khomeini did in 1979, since the 1979 revolution involved 3 main factions (Islamists, Liberals and Communists) who initially worked together to overthrow the monarchy, whereas these protests appear to be largely united in support of the Monarchy
While the death toll and size of the protests is smaller than in 2023, it does seem like the regime actually views this round of unrest as more threatening. They’ve sent the IRGC in to suppress the protests in Kermanshah (a Kurdish province) and probably other provinces as well. Generally, the protests are handled by the Basij. They’re the regime’s primary anti-riot/protest force. The IRGC ground forces are very much a military force, not law enforcement. Their deployment suggests the regime views the problem in that location as a military one and a budding insurrection that needs to be crushed rather than just civil unrest. The IRGC ground forces have taken at least two fatalities in Kermanshah which also suggests the protestors are fighting back.
In past rounds of unrest the nationwide internet blackouts have heralded brutal regime crackdowns and high death tolls among protesters. That plus the IRGC deployment suggests we should expect the death toll to rise quickly.
That is true, but there are some differences here.
These protests are taking place in more places, and include different classes and subcultures compared to 2022. It started with shopkeepers, for example.
Students, feminists and urban middle classes were the main force previously. These are easier for liberals to identify with.. but the breadth of the protests now is meaningful.
The supreme leader is old/sick.
The war weakened the IRGC. They lost leaders, communication methods, organizational methods confidence.
Heightened external threat, from Trump or Israel.
Regime response: This article misses (imo) the story here. In 2022, the regime's response was much stronger. 600 deaths (mostly in the street, >20k arrests. Many death sentences.
This time, the regime's response has involved a lot more promises and attempts to appease protestor. Some high officials calling their concerns legitimate. The regime is not united and they are scared to crush protests.
There is a Perestroika vibe. Regime leadership is admitting that the system has failed. They don't know how to fix energy, water, trade and international relations... but they admit these are failing.
Sudden desire for reform, but it's kinda late for that.
Even if regime overthrow doesn't happen, it's pretty likely the "reformers" will run the country. Moderate regime insiders considered too liberal for public office in the past... Who ostensibly want to keep is Islamic republic but reform it.
Opposition Leadership: Nondemocratic environment means polls must be interpreted with caution.
That said:
30% support Pahlavi. 12% support figures from the feminist or "gen-z" youth protests. Other significant opposition are minority seperatists, and asorted smaller movements.
One third, is basically "public support." If accurate, it means "most of the opposition." These protests are more more monarchist than previous rounds...in terms of slogans and also the subcultures involved.
Very notably, a large and growing group of Iranians no longer identify as Muslim, or Shiite, or they have big asterixes on their religious identity.
The biggest category is "spiritual without religion." If you add these up with atheists, agnostic and such like... They represent almost 50% of Iranian respondents.
So idk... I think secularism is definitely gaining momentum.
This reminds me of the Tocqueville effect: when social conditions improve, so does social frustration. When a few high state officials try to appease the protesters, they understand the enemy is weak, and they go for the throat.
While it's still too early to tell what will happen, I agree with your points that this time feels different than before. It's important to remember that the revolution doesn't win when the mob storms the palace, they win when the regime is too fractured or demoralized to defend itself, and everything points to the regime being much more demoralized in 2026 compared to 2022. Their geopolitical and security situation has completely deteriorated, the economy is in freefall, and they're facing other crises like water shortages and power cuts with no clear solution.
In a series of remarkably candid public speeches recently, Mr. Pezeshkian has said that Iran is facing insurmountable problems and that he is out of ideas to fix them.
“If someone can do something, by all means go for it,” Mr. Pezeshkian told university students and academics in early December. “I can’t do anything; don’t curse me.”
In meetings with officials, he has acknowledged the government is “stuck, really badly stuck.” He has added, “From the first day we came, catastrophes are raining down, and it hasn’t stopped.”
He has gone as far as to say that Iran’s problems are self-made — a result of corruption, factional infighting and decades of government spending practices that he described as “what crazy people do” — and not the fault of the United States or Israel. “The problem is us,” he has said in several meetings, including the one with students.
Sure it's Pezeshkian and he doesn't have any real power, but the fact that the president is talking like this has created public backlash and spurred disagreement within the elite.
Last month they also invited a journalist for an unscheduled interview, in English, with the foreign minister where they said they were open to a new nuclear deal with the US. This left the reporter with the impression that they seemed desperate and were searching for a lifeline.
The regime's response has thus far been muted compared to previous protests, and the state-aligned media Mehr News announced yesterday that they were deploying the IRGC and not the Basij to police the protests. It could be a sign that they want to appear tough, or perhaps it means they don't believe they can rely on the Basij.
There are rumours that regime insiders are divided about how to respond, even a rumour that Ahmadinejad of all people met with the Israelis. If the regime is paralyzed and can't react decisively, that opens a window of opportunity for the protestors to succeed.
A case for optimism is that Iran does have the skeleton of a democratic system and civilian government which is currently irrelevant because of the parallel state run by the Supreme Leader and IRGC, but could become useful in a transition should the protestors succeed. In a way it mirrors how the rump legislatures and national institutions of the republics in the Soviet Union, which didn't matter when everything was run through party institutions, ended up becoming the backbones of independent post-soviet states.
Good point about regime weakness as a seperate thing to protestor strength.
I think we're going to to see one of two outcomes.
One outcome is that Pezeshkian and/or other reformers take the reigns away from hard liners entirely, and moderate regime policies while keeping the Islamic Republic intact.
The other is a revolution, where Pahlavi returns in some fashion... resulting in a secular state.
The Venezuela saga (so far) makes the former would be an acceptable/easy outcome for the US. Concede on nuclear weapons and proxies. Call Trump daddy. Reform domestically to whatever extent you need for stability.
Which side achieves the most unity is also a factor. If hardliners fight back, that makes overthrow more likely. If secular opposition factions unite, they are more likely to overthrow the regime.
I suppose IR continuity is also possible, but it's hard to see a return to regime stability.
I suspect nothing’s gonna happen, the country has been rocked by massive anti regime protests and riots every two years or so all the way back since 2009. This is just going to be another leaderless protest without a clear goal.
If the driver is increased poverty (especially food related) it activates different protestors and has the potential to decrease the motivation of regime forces as well. Its the classic historical recipe for revolution.
The outcome is still uncertain, but the regime is right to be worried.
It's not "just" poverty. What really spurs popular uprisings is general discontent suddenly being exhilarated by a shortage of a fundamental resource. In this case water.
The Arab Spring can also be explained by this, although it was food.
The thing is though, there is little the regime can do at this point to placate the protests than becoming an outright despotic tyranny. Their outright mismanagement of the economy in favour of geopolitics has pretty much lost them all legitimacy. This isn't like the CCP or Putin who can offer stability and some opportunities at least, with the water crisis and hyperinflation there isn't any room for people to back down at this point.
Yeah people wishcast a LOT in these threads. I hope the Iranian regime is replaced by something better, but they are pretty experienced with suppressing these kinds of protest.
The US-based Human Rights Activist News Agency (HRANA) has said at least 34 protesters - five of them children - and eight security personnel have been killed, and that 2,270 other protesters have been arrested.
It's possible, but it's important to remember that we've been here before. The regime has survived massive protests before.
Iran's geography and the regime's well crafted repression mechanisms make for a very resilient tyranny.
But we can hope that the protesters are successful this time. A lot depends on whether the grunt troops of the security apparatus have the appetite for mass murder at this moment.
Hard to say. That description just seems to mirror your average news story from the annual Iranian protest. Without external support, it's hard to see how they can succeed against the revolutionary guard.
Then again, when violence is involved, anything is possible.
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BBC is reporting large, simultaneous protests throughout Iran, which include large fires. Several thousand arrests and several deaths of protesters and security forces have been confirmed, but security forces have not dispersed the majority of the protests.
The protests began in protest to further degrading economic conditions. The protesters are calling for the overthrow of the Islamist regime.
What’s different about these protests compared to previous ones, despite similarities in scale, is the presence of the exiled Crown Prince as an opposition figurehead, who has clear support among groups of protesters. There are many videos of protesters chanting “Javid Shah” (“Long Live the Shah”) and other monarchist slogans, and a few videos of protesters raising the old Imperial flag in positions of prominence. The exiled Crown Prince has also issued repeated public statements in support of the protestors.
To my knowledge, this is the first time the exiled Crown Prince has taken a meaningful role in Iranian protests. Previous protests have lacked meaningful leadership and have relied on grassroots support - this protest movement has grassroots support as well, but also has a clear opposition figurehead who would be able to lead a post-revolution Iran. The last time this happened was in 1979, when Khomeini was the clear leader in waiting and was able to take over despite many of the protesters being Liberals and Communists
I would argue that Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi probably has wider support with protesters than Ayatollah Khomeini did in 1979, since the 1979 revolution involved 3 main factions (Islamists, Liberals and Communists) who initially worked together to overthrow the monarchy, whereas these protests appear to be largely united in support of the Monarchy
So what kind of monarchy does he want to form? A democratic one?
He’s been firm in his commitment to establishing a democratic government if he comes to power
While the death toll and size of the protests is smaller than in 2023, it does seem like the regime actually views this round of unrest as more threatening. They’ve sent the IRGC in to suppress the protests in Kermanshah (a Kurdish province) and probably other provinces as well. Generally, the protests are handled by the Basij. They’re the regime’s primary anti-riot/protest force. The IRGC ground forces are very much a military force, not law enforcement. Their deployment suggests the regime views the problem in that location as a military one and a budding insurrection that needs to be crushed rather than just civil unrest. The IRGC ground forces have taken at least two fatalities in Kermanshah which also suggests the protestors are fighting back.
In past rounds of unrest the nationwide internet blackouts have heralded brutal regime crackdowns and high death tolls among protesters. That plus the IRGC deployment suggests we should expect the death toll to rise quickly.
To those saying "we've been here before:"
That is true, but there are some differences here.
These protests are taking place in more places, and include different classes and subcultures compared to 2022. It started with shopkeepers, for example.
Students, feminists and urban middle classes were the main force previously. These are easier for liberals to identify with.. but the breadth of the protests now is meaningful.
The supreme leader is old/sick.
The war weakened the IRGC. They lost leaders, communication methods, organizational methods confidence.
Heightened external threat, from Trump or Israel.
Regime response: This article misses (imo) the story here. In 2022, the regime's response was much stronger. 600 deaths (mostly in the street, >20k arrests. Many death sentences.
This time, the regime's response has involved a lot more promises and attempts to appease protestor. Some high officials calling their concerns legitimate. The regime is not united and they are scared to crush protests.
There is a Perestroika vibe. Regime leadership is admitting that the system has failed. They don't know how to fix energy, water, trade and international relations... but they admit these are failing.
Sudden desire for reform, but it's kinda late for that.
Even if regime overthrow doesn't happen, it's pretty likely the "reformers" will run the country. Moderate regime insiders considered too liberal for public office in the past... Who ostensibly want to keep is Islamic republic but reform it.
Opposition Leadership: Nondemocratic environment means polls must be interpreted with caution.
That said:
One third, is basically "public support." If accurate, it means "most of the opposition." These protests are more more monarchist than previous rounds...in terms of slogans and also the subcultures involved.
Very notably, a large and growing group of Iranians no longer identify as Muslim, or Shiite, or they have big asterixes on their religious identity.
The biggest category is "spiritual without religion." If you add these up with atheists, agnostic and such like... They represent almost 50% of Iranian respondents.
So idk... I think secularism is definitely gaining momentum.
This reminds me of the Tocqueville effect: when social conditions improve, so does social frustration. When a few high state officials try to appease the protesters, they understand the enemy is weak, and they go for the throat.
Let's hope this time it's truly different.
While it's still too early to tell what will happen, I agree with your points that this time feels different than before. It's important to remember that the revolution doesn't win when the mob storms the palace, they win when the regime is too fractured or demoralized to defend itself, and everything points to the regime being much more demoralized in 2026 compared to 2022. Their geopolitical and security situation has completely deteriorated, the economy is in freefall, and they're facing other crises like water shortages and power cuts with no clear solution.
Take the quotes from this article for example:
Sure it's Pezeshkian and he doesn't have any real power, but the fact that the president is talking like this has created public backlash and spurred disagreement within the elite.
Last month they also invited a journalist for an unscheduled interview, in English, with the foreign minister where they said they were open to a new nuclear deal with the US. This left the reporter with the impression that they seemed desperate and were searching for a lifeline.
The regime's response has thus far been muted compared to previous protests, and the state-aligned media Mehr News announced yesterday that they were deploying the IRGC and not the Basij to police the protests. It could be a sign that they want to appear tough, or perhaps it means they don't believe they can rely on the Basij.
There are rumours that regime insiders are divided about how to respond, even a rumour that Ahmadinejad of all people met with the Israelis. If the regime is paralyzed and can't react decisively, that opens a window of opportunity for the protestors to succeed.
A case for optimism is that Iran does have the skeleton of a democratic system and civilian government which is currently irrelevant because of the parallel state run by the Supreme Leader and IRGC, but could become useful in a transition should the protestors succeed. In a way it mirrors how the rump legislatures and national institutions of the republics in the Soviet Union, which didn't matter when everything was run through party institutions, ended up becoming the backbones of independent post-soviet states.
Good point about regime weakness as a seperate thing to protestor strength.
I think we're going to to see one of two outcomes.
One outcome is that Pezeshkian and/or other reformers take the reigns away from hard liners entirely, and moderate regime policies while keeping the Islamic Republic intact.
The other is a revolution, where Pahlavi returns in some fashion... resulting in a secular state.
The Venezuela saga (so far) makes the former would be an acceptable/easy outcome for the US. Concede on nuclear weapons and proxies. Call Trump daddy. Reform domestically to whatever extent you need for stability.
Which side achieves the most unity is also a factor. If hardliners fight back, that makes overthrow more likely. If secular opposition factions unite, they are more likely to overthrow the regime.
I suppose IR continuity is also possible, but it's hard to see a return to regime stability.
I suspect nothing’s gonna happen, the country has been rocked by massive anti regime protests and riots every two years or so all the way back since 2009. This is just going to be another leaderless protest without a clear goal.
If the driver is increased poverty (especially food related) it activates different protestors and has the potential to decrease the motivation of regime forces as well. Its the classic historical recipe for revolution.
The outcome is still uncertain, but the regime is right to be worried.
It's not "just" poverty. What really spurs popular uprisings is general discontent suddenly being exhilarated by a shortage of a fundamental resource. In this case water.
The Arab Spring can also be explained by this, although it was food.
The thing is though, there is little the regime can do at this point to placate the protests than becoming an outright despotic tyranny. Their outright mismanagement of the economy in favour of geopolitics has pretty much lost them all legitimacy. This isn't like the CCP or Putin who can offer stability and some opportunities at least, with the water crisis and hyperinflation there isn't any room for people to back down at this point.
Yeah people wishcast a LOT in these threads. I hope the Iranian regime is replaced by something better, but they are pretty experienced with suppressing these kinds of protest.
I think I even saw a video of a man unleashing a homemade flamethrower on some government forces. Insane.
This feels like the beginning of a civil war.
It's possible, but it's important to remember that we've been here before. The regime has survived massive protests before.
Iran's geography and the regime's well crafted repression mechanisms make for a very resilient tyranny.
But we can hope that the protesters are successful this time. A lot depends on whether the grunt troops of the security apparatus have the appetite for mass murder at this moment.
I think even the military are not in the mood after the 12 day war they must feel humiliated
Well the "military" isn't Iran's actual military force.
Didn't they kill way more people when that girl died?
500+ killed in total, yes.
These protests are still ongoing. Who knows what's going to happen next
Hard to say. That description just seems to mirror your average news story from the annual Iranian protest. Without external support, it's hard to see how they can succeed against the revolutionary guard.
Then again, when violence is involved, anything is possible.