That's why it's hard to plan things, especially agriculture of which complex civilisation we take for granted and mistake as reality depends on.
It may get increasingly warmer over the years (and hard to predict how that'll affect precipitation as hotter air holds more moisture) where we have to start selecting crops that can handle it more, until a time where the AMOC may considerably slow down or even collapse, where we're hit with a very rapid reduction of temperature with regions in the tropics going the other way.
AMOC collapse isn't likely in the near future, but a definite possibility before 2100.
When people say climate models are wrong, they are right in many ways. What they don't grasp is that there's so many different complicated things happening and changing at an unnatural rate that the climate models we have are too simplified to take account of.
Funny all those articles from years back saying how Ireland stood to benefit from climate change and we could become one of the best countries to live through it.
Tad naive and much too optimistic. Everyone thought climate change meant we'd just have sunnier summers and milder winters.
While true, the AMOC is why Ireland's weather doesn't look like Newfoundlands weather (Newfoundland benefits from many of the climate features Ireland has regarding the ocean).
Newfoundland is wet, cold and windy. Ireland is wet, mild and windy etc. Newfoundland does not get nearly as cold as mainland eastern Canada does (labrador infamously super fucking cold lol).
The Gulf Stream is the result of the earth's rotation and prevailing winds (which themselves are the result of the earth's rotation). It's not going away.
It's a result due to current conditions.
As the glaciers melt it's more water, fresh water not salt water mixing and swirling around above the gulf stream that changes things. It doesn't mean that the flow of water that the earths rotation causes is going to stop but way that water flows, the temperature of it and consistency of that water will have a huge effect over time. I'm not a climate crisis advocate. The climate changes and we will just have to adapt to it.
I do think you're right, nothing is going to change over a short term basis like the 10-20 years they keep talking about but over a century or 2 there is very likely to be a big difference from today. The world breathes and moves the gulf stream has shifted before and it's silly to think it won't shift again. (I don't believe it's all humans fault though)
Not sure what you're thinking here but I guess you're kind of correct, if missing the point. The world doesn't have to spin backwards for its influence to wain. A diluted sea from glacier melting will do the job just fine.
The world doesn't have to spin backwards for its influence to wain. A diluted sea from glacier melting will do the job just fine.
It would "do the job just fine" at making our winters a little bit colder but still above freezing, similar to the west coast of Canada.
It would not make our winters like those of eastern Canada (which is exceptionally cold for its latitude despite the common misconception that it's the "correct" or "default" climate), and people need to stop pretending it will.
Even cold current west coasts, such as southern Chile are above freezing year round.
Do you think we as a society should be doing more to try and stop this??
What would you do individually?
What should government and local government do??
Some ideas from Me.
1. Massive investment in public transport both in Dublin and all urban areas
2. Massive interment in urban active travel - greenways etc to get cars off road
3. Tax on plane journeys. Maybe a family is only allowed one trip per year tax free
4. Stop building data centres. People need to start being digitally smart,
5. Huge investment in renewable green energy
I think we have NOT invested enough in renewables, public transport etc in this country
the biggest impact would be to overhaul the carbon emissions accounting. We cant enact that globally, but we can do it domestically and we can push to have it implemented at EU level.
The emissions need to be attributed to the final destination. This will actually show each contries contribution to emission by accounting for both emission produced for domestic use and emission produced for imported goods.. it removes carbon leakage as a problem.
China isnt burning coal to power manufacturing plants to make fast fashion & temu products for something to do, they do it because we buy it and there is a market for it. we dont produce the volume of milk & beef we do for any other reason than there is a market for it and we are economically competitive at it.
Nothing but token gestures will happen on the supply side unless the demand drops because there will still be money to be made and that utliumately is the most important thing for the majoirty.
On the more feasible level, I would like to see:
VAT & any customs or similar charges removed on spare parts for appliances to make repairs to things like washing machines, dryers, electric showers etc a viable alternative to dumping & buying a new one.
Implement the water charges to drive water conservation
The thing is many parts of the world were ok without our beef and dairy but we have pushed it onto markets abroad. We should probably produce less of it and give more land back to nature.
Like the below, pushing cheap Irish dairy into Nigeria etc undermining local farmers
My point is this is a byproduct. The demand & value is in the butter, his is left over so they can sell it cheaply and create demand. removing the demand for this wont reduce dairy output as the demand is driven by butter.
If the butter demand reduced that would reduce the dairy output of this fat fill milk as they couldnt afford to maintain the price point using whole milk.
EDIT: assuming the solids extracted for butter couldnt be used for some other higher value use
china was just an example being one if the biggest manufacturers. i agree it is our choice to buy it, but they only produce it because we buy. we dont by, they dont produce, emissions dont get generated.
i disagree you produce it, you own it. the flaw in that model is that we could produce nothing in ireland and consume the same or more and, on paper, we would be the most best country environmentally.
in reality, all we did is off shore our emissions to somewhere else. Globally no less emissions are being produced. no real benefit from that environmentally. just we get to feel great about ourselves and morally admonishing the countries producing emissions to make products we buy off them.
it is the equivalent of you saying your recycle 100% of your waste because you put alll your non recycling waste in my bin. you will have the little pie chart showing 100% recylcing on your account with your bin service provider but no less waste has been produced or more recycled, and there is no incentive for you to reduce your non recycling waste because it just goes in my bin anway and shows up on my account.
if the emissions follow the product, it accounts for domestic and imported, there is no mechanism to offshore emissions., no where to hide as regards each countries actual impact through production & consumption. and actually knowing the impact might bring about a change & improvement.
We could also do something about it through carbon taxes to make these prodcuts more expensive and less attractive, an expanded verison of CBAM but for environmental reasons rather than industry protection.
Tax on plane journeys. Maybe a family is only allowed one trip per year tax free
As Ireland is an island with no land connections, this can only even possibly work if a massive effort is put into making the country far more diverse when it comes to activities, attractions, and environments.
You know that some of us have a good life in Ireland and enjoy the many things it offers? All you ever do is moan about how bad the place is. Have you left yet?
Absolutely, massive tax on private jets. Kardashian type people they are an oblivious disgrace to their carbon footprint!
I know it might sound daft as an island nation! But on social media I’ve seen so many families, influencers, normal joe soaps going on multiple multiple flights and holidays every year. Ridiculous and bloated really!
Everyone is entitled to a holiday and entitled to flights etc but when people are doing 5-15 flights a year I think that’s too much!
That doesn't really affect emissions overall, cheap commercial air is what drives emissions up from that sector. And yeah private should be heavily taxed anyway.
Number 6. Vote for the greens. They're not my number 1 by any means but they're the only party taking this stuff remotely seriously. Not a hope of substantial positive change without a party actively pushing for it.
While the biggest and most powerful countries and corporations go to war and invade other countries to steal & sell their oil reserves for future profit and power. What a joke. Don’t even bother any more. Plan for business (oil extraction and burning) as usual and the effects this will have on planet.
It's more mitigation we need to spend out, our emissions aren't that important for now. Making sure we are food secure and prepared for drought and flooding. But our government will do nothing and farmers don't even seem to believe in climate change.
Yes. Today was minus 1 mind. Warmer for ireland is good. For spain is bad. We should get more tourists and retirement housing. As people migrate here over spain. My cousin moved to Spain and leaves every summer as it gets to 40c. She comes to ireland. Ironically I belive selfishly that ireland is a winner here.
Spain is bad, but Ireland won't get away that easily. Climate change is likely to have significant and lasting impacts on Ireland’s environment and economy. Rising sea levels and more frequent coastal storms threaten low-lying areas, particularly along the east and south coasts, increasing the risk of flooding, erosion, and damage to infrastructure.
Heavier and more intense rainfall will raise the likelihood of river flooding inland, putting pressure on drainage systems, housing, and agriculture. At the same time, hotter and drier summers could become more common, leading to water shortages, stress on ecosystems, and increased risk of wildfires in peatlands and upland areas.
These environmental changes will have knock-on effects across Irish society. Agriculture, which relies heavily on predictable weather, may face reduced yields, livestock stress, and higher costs from adapting to extreme conditions. Fisheries could be disrupted as warming seas alter fish stocks and marine ecosystems.
Also heatwaves, flooding, and poorer air quality increasing risks to vulnerable groups. Over time, the cost of repairing damage, adapting infrastructure, and responding to emergencies could place a growing burden on the State, shaping economic and political decisions for decades to come.
Yup, people don't get the delicate balance we live in. Our houses are built for our climate. Our roads are designed for our climate. Everything on this island is designed for the climate Ireland has had for hundreds of years. Our doctors expect diseases that happen in this climate. Our pest control methods expect pests that occur in our climate. These are all very different from those that occur in warmer climates.
I live in Mullingar. We had a hosepipe ban from May until October this year because of reduced rainfall.
Ireland does appear to be in one of the safer zones for the shifts in temperature in terms of livability, on a survival level. But that doesn't mean climate change won't be painful as storms become less predictable and more severe, as new diseases flourish, new pests eat away at agriculture etc
Also - where do we expect people will want to go when their countries become unlivable?
If only it were that simple. Or if people understood the wide ranging and variable impacts enough to not fall for such misinformation. Please don't ignore the severe risk of floods, coastal damage, extreme weather events, pollination, food security, fisheries, biodiversity and ecosystem services, seasonal droughts, and increases in disease/diminishing health.
As climate change drives ice melts the salinity of the ocean will decrease, this in turn will cause either the weakening or the collapse of the ocean currents that keep Ireland warm. Without this Ireland will on average be 10-15C colder then now. This would over the year mean we'd be wetter and drearier with little to no summer and a slightly colder winter than now. Storms and late frosts will become exceedingly common.
This is what the current research is predicting. Not a nice sunny holiday home.
This is AMOC that I'm referring to. The currents that begin with cool water from the west of the Atlantic traveling down the Americas and back up from the gulf stream to the east of the Atlantic (Ireland). It heats Ireland up, making us unusually warm when you consider how Northern we are. For comparison all of Ireland is more northern than Vancouver which experience far colder conditions and have much longer winters because they aren't being heated by ocean currents.
The AMOC also stabilises Chile through movement of heat out of the southern hemisphere, so Chile as a whole will see only disruption of precipitation and storm patterns with southern Chile not experiencing as large an impact on heating currents as compared to Europe. This is likely as a result of the currents here originating from far greater sources with the balance between the Humboldt,South Pacific, south Atlantic and Antarctic circumpolar current all acting together. Here there won't be as drastic collapse.
Even if you like higher temperatures, Ireland's climate getting warmer is bad in an indirect way, since it causes more water to evaporate and therefore more rain to fall.
EDIT: To the people downvoting this, please explain what I'm missing here. Is it not true that our climate is also getting wetter, not just warmer?
Ah great summer 2023, pissy rain almost daily in July.
If that Gulf Stream starts to wain, we're going to freeze in our tracks. We should be a lot colder ultimately.
That's why it's hard to plan things, especially agriculture of which complex civilisation we take for granted and mistake as reality depends on. It may get increasingly warmer over the years (and hard to predict how that'll affect precipitation as hotter air holds more moisture) where we have to start selecting crops that can handle it more, until a time where the AMOC may considerably slow down or even collapse, where we're hit with a very rapid reduction of temperature with regions in the tropics going the other way. AMOC collapse isn't likely in the near future, but a definite possibility before 2100.
When people say climate models are wrong, they are right in many ways. What they don't grasp is that there's so many different complicated things happening and changing at an unnatural rate that the climate models we have are too simplified to take account of.
You could cover the bit of Dublin Co outside M50 and between M1 and M2 in greenhouses and double the agricultural production of the country.
Funny all those articles from years back saying how Ireland stood to benefit from climate change and we could become one of the best countries to live through it.
Tad naive and much too optimistic. Everyone thought climate change meant we'd just have sunnier summers and milder winters.
Just can't win eh. The heat makes it cold, just our luck to get shot back into the ice age. Oh well
The AMOC is far from the only reason Ireland is warmer than the coldest places at our latitude.
Did somebody leave the immersion on again
While true, the AMOC is why Ireland's weather doesn't look like Newfoundlands weather (Newfoundland benefits from many of the climate features Ireland has regarding the ocean).
Newfoundland is wet, cold and windy. Ireland is wet, mild and windy etc. Newfoundland does not get nearly as cold as mainland eastern Canada does (labrador infamously super fucking cold lol).
Ha. True that. I'd imagine there'd be a spell where we're the Costa Del Eire for a while though.
🤞
Good then then that that can't happen unless the earth spins backwards.
The world isn't going to change it's direction of spin but that doesn't mean the gulf stream can't change
The Gulf Stream is the result of the earth's rotation and prevailing winds (which themselves are the result of the earth's rotation). It's not going away.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/aug/28/collapse-critical-atlantic-current-amoc-no-longer-low-likelihood-study
It's a result due to current conditions. As the glaciers melt it's more water, fresh water not salt water mixing and swirling around above the gulf stream that changes things. It doesn't mean that the flow of water that the earths rotation causes is going to stop but way that water flows, the temperature of it and consistency of that water will have a huge effect over time. I'm not a climate crisis advocate. The climate changes and we will just have to adapt to it. I do think you're right, nothing is going to change over a short term basis like the 10-20 years they keep talking about but over a century or 2 there is very likely to be a big difference from today. The world breathes and moves the gulf stream has shifted before and it's silly to think it won't shift again. (I don't believe it's all humans fault though)
Not sure what you're thinking here but I guess you're kind of correct, if missing the point. The world doesn't have to spin backwards for its influence to wain. A diluted sea from glacier melting will do the job just fine.
It would "do the job just fine" at making our winters a little bit colder but still above freezing, similar to the west coast of Canada.
It would not make our winters like those of eastern Canada (which is exceptionally cold for its latitude despite the common misconception that it's the "correct" or "default" climate), and people need to stop pretending it will.
Even cold current west coasts, such as southern Chile are above freezing year round.
Fair.
Do you think we as a society should be doing more to try and stop this??
What would you do individually? What should government and local government do??
Some ideas from Me. 1. Massive investment in public transport both in Dublin and all urban areas 2. Massive interment in urban active travel - greenways etc to get cars off road 3. Tax on plane journeys. Maybe a family is only allowed one trip per year tax free 4. Stop building data centres. People need to start being digitally smart, 5. Huge investment in renewable green energy
I think we have NOT invested enough in renewables, public transport etc in this country
the biggest impact would be to overhaul the carbon emissions accounting. We cant enact that globally, but we can do it domestically and we can push to have it implemented at EU level.
The emissions need to be attributed to the final destination. This will actually show each contries contribution to emission by accounting for both emission produced for domestic use and emission produced for imported goods.. it removes carbon leakage as a problem.
China isnt burning coal to power manufacturing plants to make fast fashion & temu products for something to do, they do it because we buy it and there is a market for it. we dont produce the volume of milk & beef we do for any other reason than there is a market for it and we are economically competitive at it.
Nothing but token gestures will happen on the supply side unless the demand drops because there will still be money to be made and that utliumately is the most important thing for the majoirty.
On the more feasible level, I would like to see:
The thing is many parts of the world were ok without our beef and dairy but we have pushed it onto markets abroad. We should probably produce less of it and give more land back to nature. Like the below, pushing cheap Irish dairy into Nigeria etc undermining local farmers
https://www.thejournal.ie/investigates-fat-fill-milk-powder-6762380-Jul2025/
to be fair, that reference is to a by product being sold.
but as i said, reducing the the demand, will reduce the supply for a lot of products.
I'm just saying the demand wasn't there until Irish companies pushed it upon them
i accept that.
My point is this is a byproduct. The demand & value is in the butter, his is left over so they can sell it cheaply and create demand. removing the demand for this wont reduce dairy output as the demand is driven by butter.
If the butter demand reduced that would reduce the dairy output of this fat fill milk as they couldnt afford to maintain the price point using whole milk.
EDIT: assuming the solids extracted for butter couldnt be used for some other higher value use
Look I blame China for pushing plastic shite from Temu on us too but it's our choice to buy it. You produce it you own the emissions
china was just an example being one if the biggest manufacturers. i agree it is our choice to buy it, but they only produce it because we buy. we dont by, they dont produce, emissions dont get generated.
i disagree you produce it, you own it. the flaw in that model is that we could produce nothing in ireland and consume the same or more and, on paper, we would be the most best country environmentally.
in reality, all we did is off shore our emissions to somewhere else. Globally no less emissions are being produced. no real benefit from that environmentally. just we get to feel great about ourselves and morally admonishing the countries producing emissions to make products we buy off them.
it is the equivalent of you saying your recycle 100% of your waste because you put alll your non recycling waste in my bin. you will have the little pie chart showing 100% recylcing on your account with your bin service provider but no less waste has been produced or more recycled, and there is no incentive for you to reduce your non recycling waste because it just goes in my bin anway and shows up on my account.
if the emissions follow the product, it accounts for domestic and imported, there is no mechanism to offshore emissions., no where to hide as regards each countries actual impact through production & consumption. and actually knowing the impact might bring about a change & improvement.
We could also do something about it through carbon taxes to make these prodcuts more expensive and less attractive, an expanded verison of CBAM but for environmental reasons rather than industry protection.
As Ireland is an island with no land connections, this can only even possibly work if a massive effort is put into making the country far more diverse when it comes to activities, attractions, and environments.
Why is this only number 5?
Sorry a few typos from me in my post!
You know that some of us have a good life in Ireland and enjoy the many things it offers? All you ever do is moan about how bad the place is. Have you left yet?
There a rich people using private jets burning through the carbon usage of thousands of people per year.
Erika Kirk recently took a 10 minute flight on private jet to avoid traffic.
Absolutely, massive tax on private jets. Kardashian type people they are an oblivious disgrace to their carbon footprint!
I know it might sound daft as an island nation! But on social media I’ve seen so many families, influencers, normal joe soaps going on multiple multiple flights and holidays every year. Ridiculous and bloated really!
Everyone is entitled to a holiday and entitled to flights etc but when people are doing 5-15 flights a year I think that’s too much!
That doesn't really affect emissions overall, cheap commercial air is what drives emissions up from that sector. And yeah private should be heavily taxed anyway.
Number 6. Vote for the greens. They're not my number 1 by any means but they're the only party taking this stuff remotely seriously. Not a hope of substantial positive change without a party actively pushing for it.
While the biggest and most powerful countries and corporations go to war and invade other countries to steal & sell their oil reserves for future profit and power. What a joke. Don’t even bother any more. Plan for business (oil extraction and burning) as usual and the effects this will have on planet.
It's more mitigation we need to spend out, our emissions aren't that important for now. Making sure we are food secure and prepared for drought and flooding. But our government will do nothing and farmers don't even seem to believe in climate change.
But its freezing now.......
Yes. Today was minus 1 mind. Warmer for ireland is good. For spain is bad. We should get more tourists and retirement housing. As people migrate here over spain. My cousin moved to Spain and leaves every summer as it gets to 40c. She comes to ireland. Ironically I belive selfishly that ireland is a winner here.
Spain is bad, but Ireland won't get away that easily. Climate change is likely to have significant and lasting impacts on Ireland’s environment and economy. Rising sea levels and more frequent coastal storms threaten low-lying areas, particularly along the east and south coasts, increasing the risk of flooding, erosion, and damage to infrastructure.
Heavier and more intense rainfall will raise the likelihood of river flooding inland, putting pressure on drainage systems, housing, and agriculture. At the same time, hotter and drier summers could become more common, leading to water shortages, stress on ecosystems, and increased risk of wildfires in peatlands and upland areas.
These environmental changes will have knock-on effects across Irish society. Agriculture, which relies heavily on predictable weather, may face reduced yields, livestock stress, and higher costs from adapting to extreme conditions. Fisheries could be disrupted as warming seas alter fish stocks and marine ecosystems.
Also heatwaves, flooding, and poorer air quality increasing risks to vulnerable groups. Over time, the cost of repairing damage, adapting infrastructure, and responding to emergencies could place a growing burden on the State, shaping economic and political decisions for decades to come.
Yup, people don't get the delicate balance we live in. Our houses are built for our climate. Our roads are designed for our climate. Everything on this island is designed for the climate Ireland has had for hundreds of years. Our doctors expect diseases that happen in this climate. Our pest control methods expect pests that occur in our climate. These are all very different from those that occur in warmer climates.
I live in Mullingar. We had a hosepipe ban from May until October this year because of reduced rainfall.
Ireland does appear to be in one of the safer zones for the shifts in temperature in terms of livability, on a survival level. But that doesn't mean climate change won't be painful as storms become less predictable and more severe, as new diseases flourish, new pests eat away at agriculture etc
Also - where do we expect people will want to go when their countries become unlivable?
No they aren't, it's just that our climate is the one where you get away with not designing things for any climate the most.
Considering the amount of places I see with mold.. not even that
It makes me laugh audibly when, during a heatwave, people say British and Irish homes are built to retain heat.
If only it were that simple. Or if people understood the wide ranging and variable impacts enough to not fall for such misinformation. Please don't ignore the severe risk of floods, coastal damage, extreme weather events, pollination, food security, fisheries, biodiversity and ecosystem services, seasonal droughts, and increases in disease/diminishing health.
As climate change drives ice melts the salinity of the ocean will decrease, this in turn will cause either the weakening or the collapse of the ocean currents that keep Ireland warm. Without this Ireland will on average be 10-15C colder then now. This would over the year mean we'd be wetter and drearier with little to no summer and a slightly colder winter than now. Storms and late frosts will become exceedingly common. This is what the current research is predicting. Not a nice sunny holiday home.
How can that be the case when southern Chile is nowhere near that much colder than Ireland today?
This is AMOC that I'm referring to. The currents that begin with cool water from the west of the Atlantic traveling down the Americas and back up from the gulf stream to the east of the Atlantic (Ireland). It heats Ireland up, making us unusually warm when you consider how Northern we are. For comparison all of Ireland is more northern than Vancouver which experience far colder conditions and have much longer winters because they aren't being heated by ocean currents. The AMOC also stabilises Chile through movement of heat out of the southern hemisphere, so Chile as a whole will see only disruption of precipitation and storm patterns with southern Chile not experiencing as large an impact on heating currents as compared to Europe. This is likely as a result of the currents here originating from far greater sources with the balance between the Humboldt,South Pacific, south Atlantic and Antarctic circumpolar current all acting together. Here there won't be as drastic collapse.
Even if you like higher temperatures, Ireland's climate getting warmer is bad in an indirect way, since it causes more water to evaporate and therefore more rain to fall.
EDIT: To the people downvoting this, please explain what I'm missing here. Is it not true that our climate is also getting wetter, not just warmer?