I’m with you there. China are the one crowd who can wait centuries to get what they want and lay in the long grass to get it. They have their so called “century of humiliation “ that Europeans gave them from the 1850s to 1950s, to pay back to the west. China is the mob to really be worried about long term.
Oh no doubt they will want to do it peacefully but the way the world is going I don't think they will be too put off if they have to use their military either as I don't think the US will step in to fight. The US will tell China they are bold, tell them they will enforce sanctions and then supply weapons to Taiwan. I'd think Taiwan would fall pretty quick.
TSMC is the single most important provider of chips that are crucial to the US military in the world. In no way would they let China ever have control over that. It would cripple them. And TSMC have threatened to essentially self destruct if faced with invasion which would fuck up the whole world. Taiwan is a lot more important globally than you're giving it credit for. The US loses nothing immediately if Ukraine falls, it loses a lot with Taiwan.
I understand their importance to the US but I still don't think the US would risk a full on conflict with China. It would be a logistical challenge for the US to fight China at Taiwan given Taiwan's proximity to mainland China.
I know the US has quite a significant presence around that part of the world but it would still be advantageous to China to fight a war in their own back yard so to speak.
Yeah I know the presence the US has in that part of the world. The thing is though, China's military is growing at a rapid pace and if war were to break out I think China could put pressure on the US. They are growing their capabilities to deal with the US. It would be harder in logistical terms for the US than China if war broke out in Taiwan.
The US is no longer in a position to prevent China from taking Taiwan if they chose to. The best they could do is destroy the chip factories to deny them their use, and then they are really in an all out war with china and the status of Taiwan is no longer the question.
The US is no longer in a position to prevent China from taking Taiwan
What do you base this off? The US could send one CSG to Taiwan and scare China off. They could send three CSG's and be able to take on the entire PLAN/ PLAAF in the area. This would be at most 20% of the US military force.
This is a very high level summary from the top of my head. Its in no way all encompassing.
Their population demographics are collapsing.
The CCPs power is kept through an unofficial agreement- they keep the economy healthy and the chineese people support the party. China's economy has been under enormous, and increasing, pressure.
Mass military corruption has been uncovered.
Russia's war against Ukriane has caused Europe to begin militarisation.
Essentially, China isn't having kids. Its fallen into enormous surplus' of trade thats putting economic pressure on them, they have population crisises that are putting pressure on. Their internal politics are frayed, and they've more and more issues building up. They need a distraction, and they're losing momentum.
Basically, no matter what way you roll the dice, if China attacks now it'll be in a better position than in 1 year, 5 years, 10 years. Now is there best chance to attack. Their new years speech quite expressly says they will be invading Taiwan soon. They're absolutely preparing for it in the short term.
I don't think they want to, it's more that they've cornered themselves. If you want to look into it you'll get a more concise explanation, i don't want to spend my Saturday fact checking the list of reasons. I recommend "China Uncencored" they're a youtube channel who cover chineese foreign policy.
Isreal might go after Iran ? Iran pulverised tel aviv, in one night, no matter what happens in Iran with the current protest if Isreal come knocking it’ll quickly unite the people again and I think we would see an extended bombardment.
Israel could flatten many an Iranian city if it wanted to. It has air superiority and that cannot be questioned. The only hope Iran would have is if other nations in that area came to their aid but I don't think many would risk it either. Between the US and Israel Iran would be severely beaten.
Yeah I don’t know about that, they just made Isreal made its illegal to share any of the damage Iran caused they got fucked pretty hard, that was the best 2 days of the year last year. Isreal missed there targets in Iran, also Iran still has f16 fighter jets, it would be a missile only war, the Isreal couldn’t do a land invasion they could barely do a land invasion of Gaza.
If Iran goes well I’m just gonna do what you did to Gaza then there would would be a lot of blood.
Sure Isreal haven’t said how many solider they lost so far in Gaza and some estimates put at over 10,000 so far. Israel is a much smaller country, also Iran has spend the last 3 year manufacturing drone for Russia so they can continue that production cycle in to a attack on Isreal, it’s only a matter if Isreal think they’ll be able to get a nuke off.
They didnt make it illegal to share any content relating to strikes just the sensitive areas like the Kirya and even that footage was broadcast straight after.
Drones are also useless in this war as has been proven in True Promise 1 and 2 and the 12 day war, its why theyre focusing on MRBM production.
Iron dome is fucking useless at swarm attacks, you need drones wear down the defensives to strike, Iran work that out quite quickly so the ability to attack on mass is key to doing damage, Isreal hasn’t fought a real army once. Instead countries which were hamstrung by colonial powers with soft leaders. Why once it was figure out Isreal bailed, Iran proved its point I think most military strategists say Isreal lost that battle.
Iran got ride of their shitty colonial leader in the Islamic revolution hence why the west hates it so much. Isreal fight rebels with limited resources, even at that Gaza was a complete military failure, that ruined the reputation of Isreal for the future. They can consider themselves lucky Ireland didn’t push for sanctions as that would have ended their economy.
Hahah the iron domes great, and drones are useless against a 7+ layer active air defence, theyre slow and are tracked for hours beforehand usually getting destroyed outside israels borders only a few even make it in the airspace before getting shot down.
The drones are the least of israels worries, its more saturation of ballistic missiles that worry israel.
And ireland pushing for sanctions ruining israels economy? What planet are you on Ireland is one of israels largest and most valuable customers in the world for anything tech or data related, literally propping their economy up, we also buy our ammunition for irish defense forces from them..
Iran would not have a hope. Israel have the backing of the US too so they would overcome anything Iran sends back. Plus Mossad would more than likely play a big role in helping dismantle Iran.
You are absolutely delusional. It's 2026, with all the information in the world available at your fingertips, and you have somehow managed to become indoctrinated by low-effort propaganda.
Alright bot, I got the propaganda, isreal didn’t close social media during the bombing of tel aviv the iron dome worked, there new laser one work soo well when Iran Que all there drones up on by one.
Isreal got fucked by Iran this year. For Iran it was water off a duck back. Iran knows it days are numbered after today I can see Iran going full crack down mode on the current protest, arming its self even more pull more support from China. I wouldn’t even be surprised if Iran test its own nukes by the end of the year. Either country wants this fight cause it would mean the end of Israel.
I agree overall except don't think Russia will limit itself to Ukraine and may make a move in Irish waters before the end of the year, those undersea cables and our presidency of the council are lining up nicely for a way for Russia to make an attack on EU through it's weakest link with plausible deniability
Why would Russia give a fuck about Ireland of all places? I think there is a bit of paranoia going around here. Not saying we shouldn't increase defence assets but we are very low down Russia's priorities if on there at all
Again, wouldn't be a direct attack on Ireland but rather a auxiliary attack on the EU infrastructure, at it's weakest and most defenceless point, which is also a key strategic telecommunications node and in largely unmonitored waters, during a time when Ireland holds the presidency on the council and one of it's priority points being defence and security. I'm not saying it's sure to happen by any means, but I would be highly surprised if it wasn't one of the cards already being considered in Russia's hand.
I'm sorry I have to disagree. Russia is in a proxy war it is losing with NATO but it will attack neutral Ireland to get at the EU? It's fairly fanciful.
Russia is genocidal and murderous in regard to Ukraien, they are pathologically insane and just lashing out everywhere.
The undersea cables thing was war propaganda for paranoid conspiracy nutcases. There's hundreds of cables and they break normally all the time. Russia doesn't give a flying fuck about Ireland.
What do you mean was war propaganda? It's a possible scenario and I'm making a bet it could happen this year. How are you able to assume something is propaganda if it hasn't happened yet?
Edit: it's not that Russia needs to want to attack Ireland, but it's certainly not done with making pressure on Europe/EU, and defensively Ireland is the weak link there, is a very strategic location given the connecting point for Europe to America for most telecommunications. Russia may not go tanks or boots on the Baltics but cyber or naval attacks that are harder to prove and cheaper to employ are definitely on the cards
It's not a possible scenario. It's a fairy story for people with low intelligence to make them scared into supporting tax money funneling to military contractors.
How are you able to assume something is propaganda if it hasn't happened yet?
A, I'm not a drooling imbecile, and B)...
Undersea cables break hundreds of times per year. Around two to four cables breaking somewhere in the world every week which does not impact service noticeably due to network redundancy, where traffic is simply rerouted through different cables.
One of the key aspects of internet resilience is that its architecture is decentralised. Packet switching and dynamic routing protocols have the result that if one route fails, traffic is automatically redirected to another functioning route seamlessly.
The notion that there is some nefarious plot to damage cables is just a really poor conspiracy theory designed to con low information people into supporting their tax money being funnelled to the arms industry. Nothing more.
There's good information in that BBC article.
Most faults, with figures varying 70-80% depending on where you are in the world, relate to accidental human activities like the dropping of anchors or dragging of trawler boat nets, which snag on the cables, says Stephen Holden, head of maintenance for Europe, the Middle East and Africa at Global Marine, a subsea engineering firm who respond to subsea cable repairs. These usually occur in depths of 200-300m (but commercial fishing is increasingly pushing into deeper waters – in some places, 1,500m in the Northeast Atlantic). Only 10-20% of faults worldwide relate to natural hazards, and more frequently relate to cables wearing thin in places where currents cause them to rub against rocks, causing what are called "shunt faults", says Holden.
So your argument is essentially that, because most faults that occurred before were accidents/non intentional damage, then any future faults cannot be possibly military related?
And to your point on redundency, you assume that because one one cable gets damaged accidentally at a time, that multiple sites couldn't be targeted together if an adversary wanted to make such a move. You see how none of that makes any sense, you're just assuming based on past incidence, not predicting future actions.
I think their point is that attributing something that happens naturally fairly commonly and doesn't cause more than a slight inconvenience to some "master plan" due to newer circumstances is stupid.
I didn't know the information they provided and honestly if I was to go into a "conspiracy theory" it would be that the company that repairs the cables is setting them up to be damaged or doing themselves as much more likely scenario (considering how niche that market must be) rather than Russian forces pricking about
...people who allow their intelligence to be insulted by this absurd conspiracy theory should be held in contempt and shouldn't have the right to vote or to operate light machinery.
>...any future faults cannot be possibly military related?
Everything is possible. Overland cables would be much easier to attack, but nobody suggests that would happen because it's, yes, stupid. What would be the point?
Your conspiracy doesn't even work on paper. In order to meaningfully have any noticeable impact, all tens of cables would have to be attacked simultaneously, and then what, they have a giggle at the high ping on your CoD?
Take a deep breath and take a moment to see how ridiculous this sounds then promise yourself you won't allow yourself to be taken for a fool like this again.
Oh there will definitely be stuff done in the shadows as has already happened but there is no way Russia has the capabilities to attack on another front using conventional forces or methods.
I think it is. The signs of a global conflict are getting more apparent as each month passes and there are no leaders out there who seem to be able or willing to speak a voice of reason or calmness.
To be fair the US never had any right to lecture anyone on the morals of life, they are one of the many countries who do what they want irrespective of anyone else. Their continuous hypocritical statements whenever the likes of China or Russia do something untoward are laughable.
This is what happens when you have idiotic strongmen who think in terms of 19th century Realpolitik nonsense. They're all trying to be different ideological shades of Otto Von Bismarck when they're really Kaiser Wilhelm II and their treaty of Versailles could very well be the demise of humanity unless cooler heads prevail.
Taiwan is thee ONLY source of high end semi conductors at scale in the world. They mainly supply the west. The reason CCP dick measure off their coast is they are impotent but need to strut for a domestic audience. The reality is China wont sieze those facilities intact, only reason to risk capturing the island & the island is geographically & militarily a hard enough nut to crack that it would be a blood bath, Taiwan literally maintains a larger land army than CCP does & they'd be facing classic attacker versus entrenched defender odds, meaning needing 10 times the man power. Ultimately CCP China could only end up destroying the place & those facilities. All of modern developed Western economies & militaries are entirely reliant on those semi conductors which combine with the laser etching tech only the Dutch have for making high end chips. There is Zero & i mean Zero chance EU-Turkye-US-Canada-Japan-S.Korea-NZ-OZ will under any circumstance allow CCP china destroy the irreplacable bedrock of their economies & military security. The second western Intel agencies get trustable intel CCP China is ready & willing to pull the trigger on Taiwan, Bejing to Wuhan will be levelled with nukes & all those countries navies will be swarming off Chinas coastline.
People do not understand the strategic importance of Taiwan to the militaries & economies of the west & will they're willing to piss about over Ukraine, the simple truth is they can afford to play proxy war. China can easier invade & conquer Australia than actually touch Taiwan without getting utterly & profoundly f**ked up. Also India is absolutely willing to pile on, only lot they hate as much as Pakistan is stick findered China.
As for Israel having a go at Iran, you say that like the Tehran regime doesnt start every conflict between the 2 & even if they did, they dont need to, the Islamic regime has screwed the economy so badly, tanked the currency & made Tehran unlivable with droughts so they wont last long. They could barely keep a lid on insurgency in Baluchistan & all the non Persian provinces have been looking for an excuse to over throw them for decades. Add to this the new unrest & mass protests which focus on the traditional Persian areas & merchant class & it wont be long before the Butchers are hanging from the same cranes they've hung so many left wingers, gays & dissidents over the decades. Israel need not lift a finger for the Iranian regime to fall.
So many hot takes and so little understanding? Says who, you? And you are who to have such understanding then? If you can prove to me that you are some highly qualified academic or whatnot then I will hang off your every word but until then you are just another person online who is adding to the so called hot takes. Welcome to the club.
Now back to my own hot takes.
The West is mostly full of shit. There is no way any military in the West would go to war with China over Taiwan. They won't even go to war with Russia and it's on their own doorstep.
If China does invade I don't think they expect things to be intact. You have hinted about China's little dicks...a strange analogy by the way, those little dicks so to speak are plentiful and they appear to finally pack a punch due to years of focused build up. China is preparing itself and it's ready to blow.
Nukes? Have a day off. No one is going to start shooting nukes. I bet you spouted such things when Russia threatened to send nukes into Europe. Nonsense.
Israel and Iran could have another conflict and Israel would prevail with the help of the US or yes Iran could burn from within. The problem with Iran falling is that it would probably end up like some of the other countries over there, a power vacuum and loads of different warring factions popping up and civil war ensues.
I'll preface this by saying I obviously disagree with the US' actions. They are highly illegal, and make a mockery of America's global image (or what's left of it).
Maduro is evil. He took power in a sham "election" and imprisons anyone who speaks against him. Trump, as twisted and incompetent as he is, was elected legally. Maduro is worse. Any criticism you can throw at Trump can also be leveled at him. His actions towards Guyana mirror the US' actions towards Venezuela.
Civilians being killed is a war crime, pure and simple. There's never any justification for killing innocent people, and in a just world, people would be brought to justice for this.
But Maduro is a cunt. He and Trump are two sides of the same coin. I have zero sympathy for that piece of shit dictator. He had no problems with threatening Guyana with the same actions the US is now committing against Venezuela. Fuck around, find out, in his case. Not for the poor innocents, but for him.
I have no doubt, that people from both sides of the political divide in the US will take offence to this. I'll probably be called a tankie and a fascist simultaneously. And I'm not even American. But in that note, most people in this thread, or indeed on this website, ARE American. Not Venezuelan. You haven't lived under a dictator, you don't know what it's like. IDGAF whether it's he's a "socialist" dictator or a right-wing one. Dictatorships are evil, always have been.
The reasons for these attacks are wrong. Trump doesn't give a shit about the people of Venezuela, he wants oil.
BUT...
Maduro had to go. Like Hitler and Gaddafi before him, dictatorships must be toppled and dictators dealt with. Fuck him.
And yet, he still owns a golf course in this country. If this world made any sense, he'd be rotten away in a prison cell for trying to do a coup after losing an election. We can only hope that future historians do a good job explaining all his faults.
And the actual winner of the Nobel peace prize who’s the opposition to maduro and nearly been killed by him several times dedicated the award to trump and begged for this strike.
The Nobel Peace Prize is a joke. They gave it to Kissinger too.
He’s wildly unpopular and is only in power illegally.
They went from one of the safest richest Latin American countries to an impoverished delinquent state under Chavez/Maduro. Only the mouth breathing champagne socialists on reddit think that is a good thing. Actual Venezuelans want change.
To what extent do they want to be the next Libya or Afghanistan though? I’m sure this is the forced regime change that will work out super well for the civilians
Oh I disagree with what’s happened, and hopefully it doesn’t go on any longer than it has. Regime change never works unless the people genuinely wanted it. Time will tell.
I'll have you know I'm an IPA Socialist on reddit, Champagne is the beverage of the bourgeois, shows how little you know. Also yes what Maduro has done is horrendous and the people of Venezuela are suffering but that does not give the right for a predator like trump to use predator missiles to bomb innocent people. The ends do not justify the means, and I will never be okay with the killing of civilians when the morally right thing to do for people like Maduro, Trump, Putin is to resign. That is the only answer, the only morally good answer. To Resign and hold yourself accountable for your crimes.
Oh I agree, Trump should not have invaded. Maduro was a Venezuelan problem for Venezuelans to have dealt with. That said, a lot of Venezuelans are happy that he’s gone, whatever means.
Interestingly, most actual Venezuelan threads seem pretty supportive. Seems Maduro genuinely is one of the most hated people in Venezuela. Given that he:
Banned or disqualified opposition candidates
Manipulated electoral authorities
Moved election dates arbitrarily
Used state resources for his own campaigns
Security forces and paramilitaries (“colectivos”) used against civilians
Live ammunition fired at protesters
Thousands detained arbitrarily
Hundreds killed since 2014 torture beatings electric shocks sexual violence in detention
Journalists arrested or forced into exile
Media outlets shut down or stripped of licenses
NGOs harassed, raided, or outlawed
Protest leaders jailed on fabricated charges
Hyperinflation wiped out savings
Currency controls created black markets and corruption
Oil infrastructure collapsed due to mismanagement
Skilled professionals fled en masse price controls purges of technical staff politicized management State-controlled food boxes (CLAP) used as political leverage
Aid denied to opposition neighborhoods
Loyalty rewarded with access; dissent punished with hunger
Hospitals without basic supplies
Preventable diseases returning (measles, malaria)
Doctors fleeing or silenced COVID data manipulated
Courts stacked with loyalists
No meaningful legal recourse for citizens
Political prisoners held indefinitely
Tolerance or cooperation with: criminal gangs paramilitary groups smuggling networks
Two wrongs don't make a right. Lets not kid ourselves that Trump cares about the Venezuelan people. Let's not say its ok to attack another nation unprovoked because their leader sucks. Let's not pretend its not setting a dangerous precendent. Let's not say this is America protecting other nations. Instead let's look at exactly who profits from this expensive military operation. The arms manufacturers, the surveillance and drone manufacturers. The oil men. Etc.
Oh I agree. Regime change rarely works and invading another country is criminal. The timing of this reeks of Trump deflecting attention away from the Epstein files too.
That said, it’s a calculated move with a likely positive result.
If you have a random generated account name, a hidden comment history and are able to produce lengthy replies in under a minute, it's a fair bet to assume you're a bot. Show us your comment history you coward
Plenty of those types of governments about, as you say including possibly Trump's. Wonder what the difference was here.
The Yanks can't help themselves when it comes to regime change and flouting international law in Latin America at the best of times, never mind when there is oil at play.
People do realise thats a Russian shadow fleet tanker which was helping finance the war in Ukraine & now they're gona try creating a diplomatic incident for us with US by using out waters as a human shield forcing the inevitable boarding in our EEZ in hopes of causing us trouble with the US.
This is KGB Psy-ops 101 & theres fools on here bleeting about sending out the fishermen like that'll do anything but cause headaches for the foreign affairs department.
Also before any armchair general decides to start bleeting at me about InTERNaTiOnAL wATeRs please remember you know absolutely nothing about the concept & while we have an EEZ that extends well out to sea, this only becomes a breach of our soverignty if they board it within 12 nautical miles of our shores. It definitely wont stay ahead of US navy that long & any interception in our EEZ for prior declared interceptions of sanctioned vessels or drug enforcement are entirely legal in international law. It only becomes an issue if we entangle ourselves in other peoples problems. Which Russia would be over joyed for us to do by tryna give cover to illegal oil vessels
It’s not yet, but the article states it’s heading towards us.
“A ship under active pursuit by the United States military as part of the Trump administration’s targeting of Venezuelan oil appears set to enter Irish-controlled waters in the coming days.”
“Based on the ship’s position and the behaviour of other ships, a route around the top of Ireland is the mostly likely scenario,” said an Irish security source. “Transiting through [the Irish EEZ] is the safest and cheapest option. On the other hand, the ship has been displaying some highly unusual behaviour so it’s difficult to be certain what it’s intentions are.”
Ah, ok, I see the difference now - I thought they were the same thing! 😀
But should we, as responsible members of the international community, nonetheless seize a ship flying under a false flag, if we have the means to do so?
Throw a few bags of frozen shrimp on the table, like they did for the Russian ambassador before they launched the full scale invasion of Ukraine.
That worked out great to keep the boats and other things out of Ireland.
Right ,mobilise the Cork fishermen.
A pincer movement from Killybegs would seal their fate
Is that a common seal or a grey seal they’ll be using
It's a navy seal, or the "common realy dark blue seal" to give it its taxinomical name
Did that Spanish Armada ever arrive
I don't think anyone is going to care about that one oil tanker today:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2026/jan/03/caracas-explosions-venezuela-maduro-latest-news-updates-live
According to Trump they've already captured Maduro and flown him and his wife out of the country
Illegally bombed a sovereign country, murdered it's civilians & kidnapped/abducted it's leader. Trump's making a mockery of the FIFA peace prize.
China is surely going to go for Taiwan this year given what the rest of these military powers are at.
Israel might go at Iran again.
Russia will stay fighting in Ukraine.
Then we have the Thailand and Cambodia war, India Pakistan and the usual craziness of the middle east.
2026 could be a bad year for global stability.
China won't move on Taiwan. They'll play the long game and continue to grow their economic power while everyone else lets wars cause them issues.
Some day one of those exercises that China does around Taiwan will turn into an actual invasion.
I’m with you there. China are the one crowd who can wait centuries to get what they want and lay in the long grass to get it. They have their so called “century of humiliation “ that Europeans gave them from the 1850s to 1950s, to pay back to the west. China is the mob to really be worried about long term.
I don't know.
They have that shiny new navy, they might want to use it.
Oh no doubt they will want to do it peacefully but the way the world is going I don't think they will be too put off if they have to use their military either as I don't think the US will step in to fight. The US will tell China they are bold, tell them they will enforce sanctions and then supply weapons to Taiwan. I'd think Taiwan would fall pretty quick.
TSMC is the single most important provider of chips that are crucial to the US military in the world. In no way would they let China ever have control over that. It would cripple them. And TSMC have threatened to essentially self destruct if faced with invasion which would fuck up the whole world. Taiwan is a lot more important globally than you're giving it credit for. The US loses nothing immediately if Ukraine falls, it loses a lot with Taiwan.
I understand their importance to the US but I still don't think the US would risk a full on conflict with China. It would be a logistical challenge for the US to fight China at Taiwan given Taiwan's proximity to mainland China.
I know the US has quite a significant presence around that part of the world but it would still be advantageous to China to fight a war in their own back yard so to speak.
The US needs to maintain dominance across the Pacific and specifically the South China Sea. Look up the Second Island Chain.
Yeah I know the presence the US has in that part of the world. The thing is though, China's military is growing at a rapid pace and if war were to break out I think China could put pressure on the US. They are growing their capabilities to deal with the US. It would be harder in logistical terms for the US than China if war broke out in Taiwan.
The US is no longer in a position to prevent China from taking Taiwan if they chose to. The best they could do is destroy the chip factories to deny them their use, and then they are really in an all out war with china and the status of Taiwan is no longer the question.
What do you base this off? The US could send one CSG to Taiwan and scare China off. They could send three CSG's and be able to take on the entire PLAN/ PLAAF in the area. This would be at most 20% of the US military force.
If it was that simple, and the US was as confident as you, there would be a CSG stationed in Taiwan.
China currently has Taiwan surrounded as it performs live fire drills.
China will invade soon, and it'll be because its window to invaded is closing rapidly due to internal and external factors.
It will have nothing to do with this
How soon?
I don't think China wants to get into a military conflict of that scale soon. Certainly not with someone as reckless as Trump in power in the US.
This is a very high level summary from the top of my head. Its in no way all encompassing.
Their population demographics are collapsing.
The CCPs power is kept through an unofficial agreement- they keep the economy healthy and the chineese people support the party. China's economy has been under enormous, and increasing, pressure.
Mass military corruption has been uncovered.
Russia's war against Ukriane has caused Europe to begin militarisation.
Essentially, China isn't having kids. Its fallen into enormous surplus' of trade thats putting economic pressure on them, they have population crisises that are putting pressure on. Their internal politics are frayed, and they've more and more issues building up. They need a distraction, and they're losing momentum.
Basically, no matter what way you roll the dice, if China attacks now it'll be in a better position than in 1 year, 5 years, 10 years. Now is there best chance to attack. Their new years speech quite expressly says they will be invading Taiwan soon. They're absolutely preparing for it in the short term.
I don't think they want to, it's more that they've cornered themselves. If you want to look into it you'll get a more concise explanation, i don't want to spend my Saturday fact checking the list of reasons. I recommend "China Uncencored" they're a youtube channel who cover chineese foreign policy.
Great year to start investing in stocks!
In weapon manufacturers 😂
that was 2022 when russia started their three day operation...........
Or when Germany announced a huge defence spending package and removed debt rules so they could spend more on the military.
Isreal might go after Iran ? Iran pulverised tel aviv, in one night, no matter what happens in Iran with the current protest if Isreal come knocking it’ll quickly unite the people again and I think we would see an extended bombardment.
Let's not kid ourselves here, Israel would bomb Iran back to the Stone age without having to put conventional forces on the ground.
Iran is massive. Please go take a look at a map
What's that got to do with anything?
Its massive. They don't have enough fire power to do what you said. That's the point. Pretty clear.
Israel could flatten many an Iranian city if it wanted to. It has air superiority and that cannot be questioned. The only hope Iran would have is if other nations in that area came to their aid but I don't think many would risk it either. Between the US and Israel Iran would be severely beaten.
And Israel took over its airspace in 12 days.
There's no way Iran's air defence is back to what it was pre 12 day war. Israel would have free rein pretty quickly to do what it wants
Yeah I don’t know about that, they just made Isreal made its illegal to share any of the damage Iran caused they got fucked pretty hard, that was the best 2 days of the year last year. Isreal missed there targets in Iran, also Iran still has f16 fighter jets, it would be a missile only war, the Isreal couldn’t do a land invasion they could barely do a land invasion of Gaza. If Iran goes well I’m just gonna do what you did to Gaza then there would would be a lot of blood.
Sure Isreal haven’t said how many solider they lost so far in Gaza and some estimates put at over 10,000 so far. Israel is a much smaller country, also Iran has spend the last 3 year manufacturing drone for Russia so they can continue that production cycle in to a attack on Isreal, it’s only a matter if Isreal think they’ll be able to get a nuke off.
They didnt make it illegal to share any content relating to strikes just the sensitive areas like the Kirya and even that footage was broadcast straight after.
Drones are also useless in this war as has been proven in True Promise 1 and 2 and the 12 day war, its why theyre focusing on MRBM production.
Iron dome is fucking useless at swarm attacks, you need drones wear down the defensives to strike, Iran work that out quite quickly so the ability to attack on mass is key to doing damage, Isreal hasn’t fought a real army once. Instead countries which were hamstrung by colonial powers with soft leaders. Why once it was figure out Isreal bailed, Iran proved its point I think most military strategists say Isreal lost that battle.
Iran got ride of their shitty colonial leader in the Islamic revolution hence why the west hates it so much. Isreal fight rebels with limited resources, even at that Gaza was a complete military failure, that ruined the reputation of Isreal for the future. They can consider themselves lucky Ireland didn’t push for sanctions as that would have ended their economy.
Hahah the iron domes great, and drones are useless against a 7+ layer active air defence, theyre slow and are tracked for hours beforehand usually getting destroyed outside israels borders only a few even make it in the airspace before getting shot down.
The drones are the least of israels worries, its more saturation of ballistic missiles that worry israel.
And ireland pushing for sanctions ruining israels economy? What planet are you on Ireland is one of israels largest and most valuable customers in the world for anything tech or data related, literally propping their economy up, we also buy our ammunition for irish defense forces from them..
Iran would not have a hope. Israel have the backing of the US too so they would overcome anything Iran sends back. Plus Mossad would more than likely play a big role in helping dismantle Iran.
Iran will die by itself, Iran has the backing of Russia and China
Russia is a spent force. No one takes them seriously.
You are absolutely delusional. It's 2026, with all the information in the world available at your fingertips, and you have somehow managed to become indoctrinated by low-effort propaganda.
Alright bot, I got the propaganda, isreal didn’t close social media during the bombing of tel aviv the iron dome worked, there new laser one work soo well when Iran Que all there drones up on by one.
Isreal got fucked by Iran this year. For Iran it was water off a duck back. Iran knows it days are numbered after today I can see Iran going full crack down mode on the current protest, arming its self even more pull more support from China. I wouldn’t even be surprised if Iran test its own nukes by the end of the year. Either country wants this fight cause it would mean the end of Israel.
You need to come off whatever drugs you are on.
Definitely didnt pulverize tel aviv lol, they hit a few blocks sure lol
Also israel will 100% hit iran again very soon.
I agree overall except don't think Russia will limit itself to Ukraine and may make a move in Irish waters before the end of the year, those undersea cables and our presidency of the council are lining up nicely for a way for Russia to make an attack on EU through it's weakest link with plausible deniability
Why would Russia give a fuck about Ireland of all places? I think there is a bit of paranoia going around here. Not saying we shouldn't increase defence assets but we are very low down Russia's priorities if on there at all
Again, wouldn't be a direct attack on Ireland but rather a auxiliary attack on the EU infrastructure, at it's weakest and most defenceless point, which is also a key strategic telecommunications node and in largely unmonitored waters, during a time when Ireland holds the presidency on the council and one of it's priority points being defence and security. I'm not saying it's sure to happen by any means, but I would be highly surprised if it wasn't one of the cards already being considered in Russia's hand.
I'm sorry I have to disagree. Russia is in a proxy war it is losing with NATO but it will attack neutral Ireland to get at the EU? It's fairly fanciful.
Russia is genocidal and murderous in regard to Ukraien, they are pathologically insane and just lashing out everywhere.
The undersea cables thing was war propaganda for paranoid conspiracy nutcases. There's hundreds of cables and they break normally all the time. Russia doesn't give a flying fuck about Ireland.
That’s what they want you to believe
lol
What do you mean was war propaganda? It's a possible scenario and I'm making a bet it could happen this year. How are you able to assume something is propaganda if it hasn't happened yet?
Edit: it's not that Russia needs to want to attack Ireland, but it's certainly not done with making pressure on Europe/EU, and defensively Ireland is the weak link there, is a very strategic location given the connecting point for Europe to America for most telecommunications. Russia may not go tanks or boots on the Baltics but cyber or naval attacks that are harder to prove and cheaper to employ are definitely on the cards
It's not a possible scenario. It's a fairy story for people with low intelligence to make them scared into supporting tax money funneling to military contractors.
A, I'm not a drooling imbecile, and B)...
Undersea cables break hundreds of times per year. Around two to four cables breaking somewhere in the world every week which does not impact service noticeably due to network redundancy, where traffic is simply rerouted through different cables.
>That does not mean an entire country's internet is then down for a week. Many nations have more cables and more bandwidth within those cables than the minimum required amount, so that if some are damaged, the others can pick up the slack. This is called redundancy in the system. Because of this redundancy, most of us would never notice if one subsea cable was damaged – perhaps this article would take a second or two longer to load than normal.
One of the key aspects of internet resilience is that its architecture is decentralised. Packet switching and dynamic routing protocols have the result that if one route fails, traffic is automatically redirected to another functioning route seamlessly.
The notion that there is some nefarious plot to damage cables is just a really poor conspiracy theory designed to con low information people into supporting their tax money being funnelled to the arms industry. Nothing more.
There's good information in that BBC article.
So your argument is essentially that, because most faults that occurred before were accidents/non intentional damage, then any future faults cannot be possibly military related?
And to your point on redundency, you assume that because one one cable gets damaged accidentally at a time, that multiple sites couldn't be targeted together if an adversary wanted to make such a move. You see how none of that makes any sense, you're just assuming based on past incidence, not predicting future actions.
I think their point is that attributing something that happens naturally fairly commonly and doesn't cause more than a slight inconvenience to some "master plan" due to newer circumstances is stupid.
I didn't know the information they provided and honestly if I was to go into a "conspiracy theory" it would be that the company that repairs the cables is setting them up to be damaged or doing themselves as much more likely scenario (considering how niche that market must be) rather than Russian forces pricking about
...people who allow their intelligence to be insulted by this absurd conspiracy theory should be held in contempt and shouldn't have the right to vote or to operate light machinery.
>...any future faults cannot be possibly military related?
Everything is possible. Overland cables would be much easier to attack, but nobody suggests that would happen because it's, yes, stupid. What would be the point?
Your conspiracy doesn't even work on paper. In order to meaningfully have any noticeable impact, all tens of cables would have to be attacked simultaneously, and then what, they have a giggle at the high ping on your CoD?
https://preview.redd.it/pu1ir3qiq4bg1.png?width=800&format=png&auto=webp&s=8a313d7492fadb19d454f98d0f97b5980936cc9c
Take a deep breath and take a moment to see how ridiculous this sounds then promise yourself you won't allow yourself to be taken for a fool like this again.
Oh there will definitely be stuff done in the shadows as has already happened but there is no way Russia has the capabilities to attack on another front using conventional forces or methods.
Squeaky bum time all over.
I think it is. The signs of a global conflict are getting more apparent as each month passes and there are no leaders out there who seem to be able or willing to speak a voice of reason or calmness.
China could well go after Taiwan as all reasons not to have just been removed from the table.
Now that America has invaded Venezuela and kidnapped Maduro, they can't say that any other country has invaded another country illegally
To be fair the US never had any right to lecture anyone on the morals of life, they are one of the many countries who do what they want irrespective of anyone else. Their continuous hypocritical statements whenever the likes of China or Russia do something untoward are laughable.
This is what happens when you have idiotic strongmen who think in terms of 19th century Realpolitik nonsense. They're all trying to be different ideological shades of Otto Von Bismarck when they're really Kaiser Wilhelm II and their treaty of Versailles could very well be the demise of humanity unless cooler heads prevail.
Oh we definitely need cooler heads. We are heading to a bad place if they all keep on their current tracks.
So many hot takes, so little understanding.
Taiwan is thee ONLY source of high end semi conductors at scale in the world. They mainly supply the west. The reason CCP dick measure off their coast is they are impotent but need to strut for a domestic audience. The reality is China wont sieze those facilities intact, only reason to risk capturing the island & the island is geographically & militarily a hard enough nut to crack that it would be a blood bath, Taiwan literally maintains a larger land army than CCP does & they'd be facing classic attacker versus entrenched defender odds, meaning needing 10 times the man power. Ultimately CCP China could only end up destroying the place & those facilities. All of modern developed Western economies & militaries are entirely reliant on those semi conductors which combine with the laser etching tech only the Dutch have for making high end chips. There is Zero & i mean Zero chance EU-Turkye-US-Canada-Japan-S.Korea-NZ-OZ will under any circumstance allow CCP china destroy the irreplacable bedrock of their economies & military security. The second western Intel agencies get trustable intel CCP China is ready & willing to pull the trigger on Taiwan, Bejing to Wuhan will be levelled with nukes & all those countries navies will be swarming off Chinas coastline.
People do not understand the strategic importance of Taiwan to the militaries & economies of the west & will they're willing to piss about over Ukraine, the simple truth is they can afford to play proxy war. China can easier invade & conquer Australia than actually touch Taiwan without getting utterly & profoundly f**ked up. Also India is absolutely willing to pile on, only lot they hate as much as Pakistan is stick findered China.
As for Israel having a go at Iran, you say that like the Tehran regime doesnt start every conflict between the 2 & even if they did, they dont need to, the Islamic regime has screwed the economy so badly, tanked the currency & made Tehran unlivable with droughts so they wont last long. They could barely keep a lid on insurgency in Baluchistan & all the non Persian provinces have been looking for an excuse to over throw them for decades. Add to this the new unrest & mass protests which focus on the traditional Persian areas & merchant class & it wont be long before the Butchers are hanging from the same cranes they've hung so many left wingers, gays & dissidents over the decades. Israel need not lift a finger for the Iranian regime to fall.
So many hot takes and so little understanding? Says who, you? And you are who to have such understanding then? If you can prove to me that you are some highly qualified academic or whatnot then I will hang off your every word but until then you are just another person online who is adding to the so called hot takes. Welcome to the club.
Now back to my own hot takes.
The West is mostly full of shit. There is no way any military in the West would go to war with China over Taiwan. They won't even go to war with Russia and it's on their own doorstep.
If China does invade I don't think they expect things to be intact. You have hinted about China's little dicks...a strange analogy by the way, those little dicks so to speak are plentiful and they appear to finally pack a punch due to years of focused build up. China is preparing itself and it's ready to blow.
Nukes? Have a day off. No one is going to start shooting nukes. I bet you spouted such things when Russia threatened to send nukes into Europe. Nonsense.
Israel and Iran could have another conflict and Israel would prevail with the help of the US or yes Iran could burn from within. The problem with Iran falling is that it would probably end up like some of the other countries over there, a power vacuum and loads of different warring factions popping up and civil war ensues.
I'll preface this by saying I obviously disagree with the US' actions. They are highly illegal, and make a mockery of America's global image (or what's left of it).
Maduro is evil. He took power in a sham "election" and imprisons anyone who speaks against him. Trump, as twisted and incompetent as he is, was elected legally. Maduro is worse. Any criticism you can throw at Trump can also be leveled at him. His actions towards Guyana mirror the US' actions towards Venezuela.
Civilians being killed is a war crime, pure and simple. There's never any justification for killing innocent people, and in a just world, people would be brought to justice for this.
But Maduro is a cunt. He and Trump are two sides of the same coin. I have zero sympathy for that piece of shit dictator. He had no problems with threatening Guyana with the same actions the US is now committing against Venezuela. Fuck around, find out, in his case. Not for the poor innocents, but for him.
I have no doubt, that people from both sides of the political divide in the US will take offence to this. I'll probably be called a tankie and a fascist simultaneously. And I'm not even American. But in that note, most people in this thread, or indeed on this website, ARE American. Not Venezuelan. You haven't lived under a dictator, you don't know what it's like. IDGAF whether it's he's a "socialist" dictator or a right-wing one. Dictatorships are evil, always have been.
The reasons for these attacks are wrong. Trump doesn't give a shit about the people of Venezuela, he wants oil.
BUT...
Maduro had to go. Like Hitler and Gaddafi before him, dictatorships must be toppled and dictators dealt with. Fuck him.
🤣🤣🤣🤣
And yet, he still owns a golf course in this country. If this world made any sense, he'd be rotten away in a prison cell for trying to do a coup after losing an election. We can only hope that future historians do a good job explaining all his faults.
[deleted]
The Nobel Peace Prize is a joke. They gave it to Kissinger too.
In fairness most Venezuelans are cheering on the removal of Maduro.
Maybe those abroad but no evidence that's the case in Venezuela. The Nobel Prize winning Israeli to be the next president I guess...
He’s wildly unpopular and is only in power illegally.
They went from one of the safest richest Latin American countries to an impoverished delinquent state under Chavez/Maduro. Only the mouth breathing champagne socialists on reddit think that is a good thing. Actual Venezuelans want change.
To what extent do they want to be the next Libya or Afghanistan though? I’m sure this is the forced regime change that will work out super well for the civilians
Oh I disagree with what’s happened, and hopefully it doesn’t go on any longer than it has. Regime change never works unless the people genuinely wanted it. Time will tell.
The next Brazil (previously), or Argentina.
Oh dear now we've MAGA freaks on this sub
The timing of Trump doing this to deflect from the Epstein files. Because he’s a narcissistic asshole who only thinks about his own grasp on power.
You relapse 2 conflicting things can be true at the same time? Trump is a self serving cunt. But Maduro is also wildly unpopular in his country.
I'll have you know I'm an IPA Socialist on reddit, Champagne is the beverage of the bourgeois, shows how little you know. Also yes what Maduro has done is horrendous and the people of Venezuela are suffering but that does not give the right for a predator like trump to use predator missiles to bomb innocent people. The ends do not justify the means, and I will never be okay with the killing of civilians when the morally right thing to do for people like Maduro, Trump, Putin is to resign. That is the only answer, the only morally good answer. To Resign and hold yourself accountable for your crimes.
Oh I agree, Trump should not have invaded. Maduro was a Venezuelan problem for Venezuelans to have dealt with. That said, a lot of Venezuelans are happy that he’s gone, whatever means.
You've done a poll, have you?
Interestingly, most actual Venezuelan threads seem pretty supportive. Seems Maduro genuinely is one of the most hated people in Venezuela. Given that he:
Banned or disqualified opposition candidates
Manipulated electoral authorities
Moved election dates arbitrarily
Used state resources for his own campaigns
Security forces and paramilitaries (“colectivos”) used against civilians
Live ammunition fired at protesters
Thousands detained arbitrarily
Hundreds killed since 2014 torture beatings electric shocks sexual violence in detention
Journalists arrested or forced into exile
Media outlets shut down or stripped of licenses
NGOs harassed, raided, or outlawed
Protest leaders jailed on fabricated charges
Hyperinflation wiped out savings
Currency controls created black markets and corruption
Oil infrastructure collapsed due to mismanagement
Skilled professionals fled en masse price controls purges of technical staff politicized management State-controlled food boxes (CLAP) used as political leverage
Aid denied to opposition neighborhoods
Loyalty rewarded with access; dissent punished with hunger
Hospitals without basic supplies
Preventable diseases returning (measles, malaria)
Doctors fleeing or silenced COVID data manipulated
Courts stacked with loyalists
No meaningful legal recourse for citizens
Political prisoners held indefinitely
Tolerance or cooperation with: criminal gangs paramilitary groups smuggling networks
Looks like no one is going to miss him.
Wow that's an impressive response to have typed up in one minute!
These facts have been around for years. The fact that you were ignorant of them until just now doesn’t change that.
Here another one: Maduro lost the last election by 70% of the vote, and then stole it. Does that sound like a popular move to you?
Tbh it is weird that this reply took more time to "type" than the last significantly longer one...
When you guys learn about copying and pasting your replies from your previous replies there’ll be no stopping you!
Two wrongs don't make a right. Lets not kid ourselves that Trump cares about the Venezuelan people. Let's not say its ok to attack another nation unprovoked because their leader sucks. Let's not pretend its not setting a dangerous precendent. Let's not say this is America protecting other nations. Instead let's look at exactly who profits from this expensive military operation. The arms manufacturers, the surveillance and drone manufacturers. The oil men. Etc.
Oh I agree. The timing reeks of Trump deflecting away from Epstein too.
But is a calculated move, that may have a net positive result, whatever the reasons.
Obvious bot account
Recent polls show a large divide in Venezuelans in Venezuela and Venezuelans abroad over US intervention
Also that a clear majority don't support military action
Possible to despise Maduro but not want a war and a US-backed regime
Oh I agree. Regime change rarely works and invading another country is criminal. The timing of this reeks of Trump deflecting attention away from the Epstein files too.
That said, it’s a calculated move with a likely positive result.
Replacing the far-left with the far-right?
I hate Simon Harris and Michael Martin but I don't want the country bombed and them and their families kidnapped by Trump.
A lot of people will not like this because America Bad.
You’re being down voted for telling a truth that /r/Ireland doesn’t like.
Classic
Oh look, another randomWord-randomWord-number bot account with the comment history hidden
I’m a bot because you disagree with me? Is everyone you disagree with a bot?
Are all the bots in the room with you right now?
If you have a random generated account name, a hidden comment history and are able to produce lengthy replies in under a minute, it's a fair bet to assume you're a bot. Show us your comment history you coward
When this boy discovers copy-paste he’s going to go places! Top TIp - you can copy and paste your replies!
Or just write a bot app to do the work for you!
Im well aware of copy and paste and the fact you're likely copy and pasting off a little script provided to you.
He fucked around.
He was warned for months he needed to stop. Pressure was increased steadily
He's also a brutal dictator.
He fucked around and he found out. Sure, this will benefit America but expecting them to take Venezuela's.
I can't see anything way this would've went. What was your alternative?
It was always a makey uppy prize anyway. Gowl
Maduro isn’t the leader of Venezuela
Well if he doesn’t get the planning permission for his ballroom in his Clare golf course....
I'd say it wasn't oil, and it was fenthanyl. New Market awaits watch as our street are flooded next!
Lithium too. Was loads of talk about US tech firms wanting that when they tried to coup Maduro in 2018/19
A free top up for the central heating is on the way.
its empty, It was going to pick up oil but turned around before America boarded it.
“Under the laws of the sea, it is open to countries to seize a vessel flying a false flag.”
Ireland has the ability to seize this ship, and if it enters Irish territorial waters then we should.
The article doesn't even suggest it will.
Oh god no. Then we have to pay to have it docked here. Didn’t something similar cost the government millions recently
Free oil coming our way boys, grab it while we can. That is Trumps policy anyways.
Its empty.
Bummer.
We should grant their oil asylum.
We could send out our naval fleet..
Already hearing the signals team are making placards
https://preview.redd.it/9zvmck6dx3bg1.jpeg?width=766&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=508d000b6c218bbdec8af15743e28ffe1a0c5ba7
Sign Team 6
We could have an aircraft carrier today and it wouldn't matter a shite for this situation.
If the US is pursuing that ship they will have it, I don't think us or anyone else is going to stop them.
Well they snatched a government that wasn't democratically elected and has a poor human rights record. Wonder could same be said for Trump
Plenty of those types of governments about, as you say including possibly Trump's. Wonder what the difference was here.
The Yanks can't help themselves when it comes to regime change and flouting international law in Latin America at the best of times, never mind when there is oil at play.
They're rowing out as we speak. Megaphones and stern words will sort this out.
Call the British and beg for assistance.
People do realise thats a Russian shadow fleet tanker which was helping finance the war in Ukraine & now they're gona try creating a diplomatic incident for us with US by using out waters as a human shield forcing the inevitable boarding in our EEZ in hopes of causing us trouble with the US.
This is KGB Psy-ops 101 & theres fools on here bleeting about sending out the fishermen like that'll do anything but cause headaches for the foreign affairs department.
Also before any armchair general decides to start bleeting at me about InTERNaTiOnAL wATeRs please remember you know absolutely nothing about the concept & while we have an EEZ that extends well out to sea, this only becomes a breach of our soverignty if they board it within 12 nautical miles of our shores. It definitely wont stay ahead of US navy that long & any interception in our EEZ for prior declared interceptions of sanctioned vessels or drug enforcement are entirely legal in international law. It only becomes an issue if we entangle ourselves in other peoples problems. Which Russia would be over joyed for us to do by tryna give cover to illegal oil vessels
This is an incredibly stupid article, this ship has nothing to do with us. Poor FUD from the Irish Times.
If it’s in Irish waters flying under a false flag, then we have a responsibility to seize it.
Its not. The article doesn't even suggest it will come into Irish Waters.
It’s not yet, but the article states it’s heading towards us.
“A ship under active pursuit by the United States military as part of the Trump administration’s targeting of Venezuelan oil appears set to enter Irish-controlled waters in the coming days.”
A reminder that the EEZ is not Irish Waters.
Ah, ok, I see the difference now - I thought they were the same thing! 😀
But should we, as responsible members of the international community, nonetheless seize a ship flying under a false flag, if we have the means to do so?
The article doesn't even suggest it will come into Irish Waters.
do we have the means to?
I think we do - according to the article it is just a tanker. Doubt it could withstand being boarded by the navy and ARW.
wooh wooh careful now, we'll have a worse disaster off the coast of Sligo since the Spanish Armada landed on Streedagh Beach
Dibs! It's our oil Yank.
Article is paywalled. Does it give the name of the vessel? I work in this area and have been tracking a crude tanker that’s due in a few days
In fairness, unlikely the US will make a move in Irish waters.
If a tree falls in the forest and nobody is around to hear it…..
Why?
Aye, the US, known for its respect of sovereignty
Throw a few bags of frozen shrimp on the table, like they did for the Russian ambassador before they launched the full scale invasion of Ukraine. That worked out great to keep the boats and other things out of Ireland.