(open.substack.com)
Should you have drafted Trey McBride or Brock Bowers as the first tight end off the board? Well, obviously, McBride. He had almost double the amount of yards and touchdowns. If you think that is unfair, on a per-game basis McBride averaged 73 yards receiving to Bowers 57. Still, obviously, McBride. He was the clear safe pick as the veteran who had shown multiple times he could be a top tight end while Bowers had an exciting rookie year but we’ve seen sophomore slumps happen before (i.e. Kyle Pitts) and he was due for regression. Which means those that drafted McBride over Bowers were “right,” right?
McBride averaged 55 ypg across the first five games with Kyler Murray (and only scored 1 touchdown). I never heard a single person predict that Jacoby Brissett would win the starting job, the Cardinals defense would fall apart in the second half of the season, and that McBride would be second in the league in redzone targets.
Bowers started the year with a 100-yard game. Many were optimistic as the Raiders had brought in veteran coaches, paid Geno Smith instead of rolling out some combination of Minshew-O’Connell-Ridder, and drafted a game-changer in Jeanty. Bowers proceeded to get hurt; an injury that both lingered and forced him to miss multiple games at two different points in the season. The Raiders proceeded to have the worst record in the league and score the least points through the first 16 weeks of a season since 2018. Many thought this would be an average offense.
It is tough enough to evaluate a player’s ability, but predicting a player’s situation is even tougher. Hindsight is 20-20. Fantasy is more luck than skill.
Let’s give you the data up front (the sources are fantasypros consensus draft rankings and pro-football-reference for fantasy points per game). Using a simple logistic regression between preseason rank and points per game, we can get a basic idea of who over- and underperformed on the season. According to this regression, here are the 2025 outliers…
overQB - Stafford, Jones, Maye, Lawrence, Brissett, Dart
underQB - Lamar, Tua, Daniels, Burrow, Ward, Geno
overRB - Taylor, Javonte, Etienne, Dowdle, Skattebo, Judkins, Cook, CMC, Warren, Dobbins, Stevenson
underRB - Kaleb, Kamara, Bigsby, Pacheco, Saquon, Hubbard, Jeanty
overWR - Puka, JSN, Pickens, Rice, Olave, Watson, Johnston, Boutte, Robinson, Washington, Franklin, Pierce, Wilson (it was a good year to invest in presidential WRs)
underWR - Aiyuk, Jefferson, BTJ, Ridley, Golden, Worthy, McConkey, Kirk
overTE - Kraft, McBride, Goedert, Fannin, Waller, Gadsden
underTE - Engram, Hockenson, Njoku, Likely, Jonnu, Andrews
Each table shows a player’s standard points per game, their expected points per game based on their draft ranking, the difference between these two values, their points per game in the first half of the season (through week 8), and their points per game in the second half (after week 8). This means that the first half and second half points per game do not always have the same sample size, but it’s just to give a general idea if someone started or finished stronger.
It obviously sucks to lose Malik Nabers or James Conner or Tucker Kraft or etc. to a season-ending injury. It also sucks to have a player play through injury and underperform (a la Josh Jacobs) or get hurt again (a la Jayden Daniels). And, it sucks to have a player get an injury out of nowhere and be out indefinitely (looking at you Joe Mixon, Bucky Irving, and Trey Benson). Of course, this doesn’t even cover the acute injuries where a player misses a week or two and affects your lineup.
On the other side, an injury is the main way someone else gets an opportunity. Michael Mayer is not just useful because he can start when Bowers is out, but he has the opportunity to pull a Michael Wilson and have an amazing game by putting up the 2nd most receiving yards on the season which earns him more volume going forward. For rushers, Rico Dowdle and Kyle Monongai both put up top-10 rushing games and considerably boosted their fantasy prospects.
Lean into the variance (an injury lingers or a backup breaks out) as it’s one of the few ways to find upside midseason. Who was the best mid-to-late season breakout that wasn’t injury related? Blake Corum? AJ Brown? Chris Rodriguez?
How different the Bengals looked when going from Browning to Flacco. Same with the Colts going from Richardson to Jones. And the opposite with the Vikings going from Darnold to Wentz to McCarthy to Brosmer. It is more than just quarterbacks, look at how Arthur Smith runs the Steelers offense or what happens to the Chargers when Joe Alt doesn’t play.
Of course, not every change makes a big difference (Daniels → Mariota or the Carroll-Geno reunion), but change brings upside. Sometimes things just click.
I don’t understand why the narrative that backup quarterbacks lock onto their number one target became so widespread. Flacco made the whole offense better, Brissett made the whole offense better.
Josh Allen was the only of the top-five drafted QBs to be a hit. Lamar, Hurts, Daniels, and Burrow were varying degrees of disappointment. The running QB cheat code was a major disappointment this year there wasn’t a QB with 600 rushing yards, the first time since 2016. Josh Allen’s 579 yards is good for 15th over the past five years. (QB rushing was so bad this year, Justin Herbert was 2nd in the league in rushing).
After drafting rushing quarterbacks, the next biggest draft day steal may be youth. Though, it also wasn’t a steal this year. The heralded rookie RB class was disappointing (most fantasy points by running backs since 2018, but fell way short of the 2017 class). The rookie class on the whole seemed to have a stronger first half than second half which goes against common wisdom.
Maye broke out and that’s it… you probably feel a little better about Caleb, Odunze, Corum, Mitchell, etc but what a disappointing year. It is easy to make excuses for individuals (injuries and team situation and et cetera), but as a whole it seems like there should be a connecting thread for why youth underwhelmed this season.
The most useful information, I think, is from beat reporters. Bill wasn’t an RB1, but I remember everyone laughing when a Commanders writer said the Commanders might cut Brian Robinson a couple days before the trade rumors started popping up. They won’t always be right (e.g. Vidal vs Haskins), but they are right far more often than not (Mixon was rumored to miss the whole season six months ago).
Analytical darlings didn’t seem to do that well. I don’t have objective figures for who got talked about most, but it felt like everyone loved Josh Downs’s efficiency and was going to break out. Regression for Kincaid and Cook were also wrong. It could very well be easier to remember the misses, though. There were definitely people championing Dak, Maye, and Kraft, though I remember the analytical arguments for the above three the most.
Rushing success over expected is quoted often, but I don’t think it means that much, especially in small sample sizes. For larger sample sizes, let’s look at 2024 season totals… would you rather have Hubbard, Allgeier, Jacobs, Mason, and Bijan or Swift, Achane, Tracy, Etienne, and Javonte? I don’t think it matters which you prefer, but it’s quite close which is ridiculous for a stat that is supposed to isolate a running back’s effectiveness and the top five aren’t better the following year than the bottom five.
Complete passing percentage over expected gets referenced a lot as well as it’s supposed to measure a player’s true passing ability. The bottom five in 2024 that returned as starters were Rodgers, Stroud, Lawrence, Prescott, and Stafford while the top five were Hurts, Burrow, Goff, Geno, and Lamar. I’d take the latter group, but the former group was more prolific through the air this year. If you incorporate epa/play, then Mayfield, Tua, and Daniels get added to the good and Caleb, Jones, and Maye get added to the bad; the three best guys out of those six are the “bad.”
It’s discouraging; you’d think there would be better metrics to isolate a player’s ability. The good old tried-and-true regression to the mean still seems like the best way to use stats to your advantage. The most evident being fading touchdown-rate mid-season, but there are other statistical outliers to fade.
People were confident Woody Marks had finally taken over the backfield coming out of the bye, but then the next week the Texans gave Nick Chubb 17 carries. (Marks did eventually become the lead back, of course.) Troy Franklin got more involved as the season went on and (maybe) overtook Sutton for the WR1, but then he was suddenly the WR3. Tyjae Spears slowly earned more yards, and then bam, he gets you 1 total yard in the fantasy championship. Odunze and Egbuka were eating to the start the year, and they are young, so it should only get better. Diggs was coming off of injury, so his playing time/value should increase as the year goes on. Et cetera.
It is hard to gauge whether someone had a breakout performance(s) and has turned a corner, or if the player just had a couple lucky weeks. Even snap share has luck (how long a drive lasts, how close the game is, etc).
It seemed like there was more heavy personnel being used and teams utilizing both an in-line tight end and move tight end.
Tanking is slowly coming. Plenty of teams rest players in week 18, and the Raiders benching Brock Bowers may have opened the flood gates for week 17 going forward.
I don’t know how much difference the k-ball actually made. Kickers were more accurate this year from 60+ and 40-49, but less accurate from 50-59 and 30-39. Teams were more willing to try from 60+ (22 fga compared to last year’s 15 which was the record), but I wouldn’t say there was a significant difference in kicker accuracy. There were more blocked kicks. But, in 2022 there was 27 blocked kicks, more than this year’s 25.
Pre-snap motion happens on a majority of plays.
Points per drive was the second highest of all time (after 2020). Starting field position was up half a yard (and two yards over two seasons ago), but yards per play remained about the same as the previous four seasons. Turnovers being at an all-time low is just as important for scoring efficiency.
There can always be more detail, but I tried to mention interesting situations and narratives as best I could for each team in the NFL. As with the earlier Bowers vs McBride example, it is important to contextualize team situations when evaluating a player.
ARZ
Brissett had six straight games of 40+ pass attempts; the all-time record is seven. His ANY/A is (just) below average and he went 1-10 as the starter. Michael Wilson is probably better than we thought, but he is probably going to be the 3rd option on the team next year. Expecting Brissett or Wilson to put up similar numbers next year is quite optimistic. This is most similar to a Jameis Winston-Jerry Jeudy situation.
Trey McBride reversed his touchdown luck, but how much was that due to Brissett and the Cardinals having the worst defense (35 ppg against) in the second half of the season?
Another disappointing year for MHJ.
What is going to happen to Kyler Murray? The QB9 on draft day, you wouldn’t have believed he was going to lose his job with his initial injury, but he did. It seems like the Cards will have to trade him and keep Brissett as a stopgap for someone they draft (though, there may not be a 3rd QB to take).
A backfield plagued by injury and ineptitude, James Conner might actually be the starter for the Cards in week 1 of 2026. Trey Benson playing his last game in September was unexpected, to say the least. Michael Carter getting the majority of carries after Benson went down was a short-lived victory. Emari Demercado could’ve been a league winner in fantasy if he didn’t “fumble” at the one-yard line. The next game they gave Bam Knight the start because they weren’t satisfied with Carter, but they probably go to Demercado seeing as how he showed his explosiveness in a 72-yard touchdown.
ATL
Kyle Pitts literally had the best tight end game of the century. Is he finally breaking out? Doubtful. His biggest competition for targets that game was David Sills. Darnell Mooney looks done (though you can believe nagging injuries were to blame), so the Falcons will seemingly add a significant piece to their wide receiving room, but it’s possible Pitts walks into 2026 as their second target (assuming he is re-signed).
Tyler Allgeier had his worst season which might affect his free agency.
The Penix injury allowed Cousins narratives to start about receiver usage/benefits, but I would chalk those up to small sample size.
BAL
Lamar Jackson’s drop off is injury-related, and he was never going to repeat last year’s efficiency anyway. Of course, there is the idea that rushing QBs have shorter shelf lives. Regardless, if the Ravens aren’t firing on all cylinders, their lower-level fantasy options are close to worthless (e.g. Mark Andrews and Rashod Bateman).
Derrick Henry being game-script dependent is true, but not to the extent people make it out to be (20.5 touches per game in wins vs 17 touches per game in losses).
It feels like Keaton Mitchell is just an explosive guy in a good scheme, but maybe one day we’ll see him get a full workload.
Extending Mark Andrews was not on my bingo card, but it seemingly opens the door for Isaiah Likely to find a good landing spot elsewhere. However, that is soft evidence that Likely may not be as good as many think. Anyway, it was a disappointing season for both. There were those in Andrews camp expecting a bounce-back after dealing with injuries last year, then there were Likely believers who thought he would become their TE1 this year. Neither happened.
Letting to Harbaugh is interesting.
BUF
Try telling someone after week 1 that Keon Coleman would become a healthy scratch later in the season.
Dalton Kincaid was extremely efficient (11.4 yards per target). This is great news for analysts as he had an absurd off-target rate last year. However, his volume went down (5.8->4.2 targets per game), so he didn’t really break out. There could be some nagging injury explanation, but you can’t be excited about his prospects when he was the third tight end in snaps for every game he played in the second half of the season.
James Cook was a miss for analysts (touchdown regression candidate) as he got a surprising amount of the backfield share. A sophomore slump for Ray Davis?
CAR
The second half of 2024 was not a taste of things to come for Bryce Young (the rushing regression was obvious).
Xavier Legette was not held back by his wrist injury (though, there was talk after week 5 that he’d be the next QJ). Trading away Adam Thielen seemed to be a vote of confidence in Jalen Coker but was probably more an indictment of Thielen.
Tet McMillan had positive touchdown regression in the second half of the season.
Rico Dowdle and Chuba Hubbard are maybe the two best examples of how opportunity is king for running backs. Hubbard’s career has been insanely lucky (CMC injury, CMC trade, Brooks injury), but the shoe was on the other foot this year as his injury opened the door for Dowdle. Rico had the two best games by a running back on the season so far when he played the Dolphins and Cowboys without Hubbard. So Chuba rushes back from injury and the Panthers give him the start out of loyalty, and he is ineffective. So, Dowdle starts getting the lion’s share, but his effectiveness is not what it was in those two games (4.0 yards per carry after the Cowboys game), so Hubbard eventually works his way back into a mostly even split. Dowdle is a free agent, and I assume leaves this mess, but who knows.
CHI
Ben Johnson delivered.
Caleb Williams had the 2nd most fourth quarter comebacks in history, was 5th this year in sack percentage (after finishing 3rd worst as a rookie), had more 20mph runs than most running backs, AND had the 2nd worst CPOE (ahead of only JJ McCarthy). Pick your favorite narrative.
D’Andre Swift started slow, got hot, got injured, then ended up in a split backfield with 7th rounder Kyle Monongai. Both showed decent efficiency, but I would guess neither are special running backs and it’s scheme.
Sort of a mess of a receiving corps as there were too many mouths to feed. Rome Odunze had the sophomore breakout many were expecting, but it didn’t last past September. DJ Moore was disappointing. He got plenty of snaps, but his target rate was way down. He only reached 100 yards in an OT game in December with Odunze and Burden out. Burden had an elite yprr, but was behind Olamide Zaccheus basically the whole year. Many will point out his late season breakout, but Odunze has been out the last month and Moore and Zaccheus dealt with injuries as well, so much of that is just forced opportunity. Loveland also seemed effective enough, but didn’t see much volume with Kmet around, and he had his best week the one week Kmet was out.
CIN
Jake Browning had a lot of people ditching Chase, Brown, and Higgins (fans and analysts alike), but then Joe Flacco saved them all. Not really worth going over one of the major plotlines of the season, but I want to emphasize it was very much not certain that Chase would be a WR1, Brown would keep his job, or that Higgins would be startable during the Browning days. And, it wasn’t evident that the Bengals would trade for a QB nor that Flacco would make a big difference (the consensus seemed it was a slight upgrade).
CLE
Quinshon Judkins is one of the better examples of how we don’t know anything. The domestic battery situation in the offseason was certainly hard to predict. The Browns ended up signing him at the eleventh hour. He missed week one, but ended up being the lead back in week two and was efficient (this being the opposite of what was expected – being eased in and being rusty). Looking back, that was his most efficient game of the season. His second most efficient game came the week after, and his third most efficient game came two weeks after that.
Fellow rookie, Harold Fannin, started off the year strong and ended the year strong. It was a surprise for the fantasy draft TE31, but David Njoku did not hold him back (much). The off-season comparison of him to Likely was one of the more lazy takes (i.e. successful mid major tight end). Likely’s success was having 900 yards as a senior, Fannin’s success was having 1550 yards as a junior and leading the country in receiving. One was a good year and one was a record-setting year.
Jerry Jeudy did not relive his Jameis Winston days (unsurprisingly), but I think it was reasonable to expect him to reach 800 yards which he fell far short of. Cedric Tillman looked like he had a chance early in the year, but his season fell of the rails. Oh, and Isaiah Bond seemed interesting for a week or two.
Dylan Sampson had a very interesting first week catching 8 passes, but he never really carved out a consistent role.
It’s hard to like any of the QBs as a Browns fan (though, Joe Flacco did show his use on a team with weapons), but Sanders should be the hope for fantasy managers as he will actually take shots.
DAL
The preseason prediction that proved to be true – the Cowboys gave up the most points in the NFL and they ran the most plays/got the most yards in the NFL.
Javonte was obviously a buy at his price (though, he did cool down in the second half). It is interesting that his stock was so low given all the excitement over the offense, but Jaydon Blue, a backup RB college, became a fantasy darling. I don’t remember how many exactly, but he started the season with a few healthy scratches and ended up behind Malik Davis on the depth chart.
If you do follow the experts, Javonte Williams was drafted as the RB46 just after Roschon Johnson and Josh Palmer. JJ Zachariason was the manager who snagged him, but he himself drafted Tyjae Spears the round before, so you can’t really say he was outsmarting everyone. The lesson being don’t try and get too cute with your draft picks and, if someone falls, take them.
Jake Ferguson took advantage of CeeDee Lamb’s early injury and touchdown luck; he was a clear sell after his strong, but unsustainable start.
George Pickens put together a mostly drama-less season which is surprising. On the field, he seemingly surpassed Lamb, though I would easily bet on Lamb being the WR1 next year if they are both Cowboys. Still, you always want guys that step up when opportunities arise (like Ryan Flournoy, apparently). And, it is another year proving you should invest in clear WR2s not wideouts in ambiguous situations.
DEN
It was a fun ride for Broncos wideouts. It might seem that Courtland Sutton was the undisputed WR1 from start-to-finish as the veteran went for over 1,000 yards (again), but it’s not that simple. Marvin Mims had a lot of hype coming into the season, Troy Franklin outproduced him for like five straight weeks in the middle of the season, and then Pat Bryant passed Franklin on the depth chart at the end of the season. If you were a bag holder, you were rewarded as Sutton hit 10 targets in each of his last four games.
Tyler Badie saw significant snaps in week 1 (a couple teams did something similar with a pass-catching RB), but proved not to be in the rotation. JK Dobbins looked good until he was hurt (have you heard that one before?). RJ Harvey had a ton of hype coming in with being Sean Payton’s guy but has largely unimpressed, even with being given the keys after Dobbins injury. Just another data point that it doesn’t matter if a team falls in love with a player on draft day.
Evan Engram was drafted as a TE1 and some were even hyping him up as getting the joker role under Payton. That obviously didn’t happen.
DET
The Lions offense regressed without Ben Johson… or maybe regression is inevitable when you have an all-time offense. Well, you may say it was obvious that the playcalling was the issue as the offense got better once Dan Campbell took over. However, the Lions actually scored less points per game in the games Campbell was calling plays. My take, Jameson Williams improved because Sam LaPorta went down.
People drafting David Montgomery with the belief he had a rock solid role and a clear floor were mistaken (not that he did significantly worse than prior years, but a slight drop makes him barely flex-worthy).
GNB
There was a lot of talk about the Packers not having a number one wide receiver… and that doesn’t seem to have changed. Matthew Golden didn’t step up into that number one role, but that shouldn’t be much of a disappointment if you watched the first 90% of his college career.
Doubs looked like he turned a corner, but faltered in the second half. Kraft did turn a corner, but then got hurt. Watson returned from his injury better than Reed, but I don’t think this season changes anything for their outlook long term.
Josh Jacobs was rough down the stretch dealing with injuries.
Malik Willis seemingly earned a starting spot next year.
HOU
People complained about Nico Collins, but I thought he did fine, he was just hurt here and there.
Stroud bounced back, but not enough to be a real fantasy option in 1QB leagues.
Christian Kirk, Jayden Higgins, and Jaylin Noel all disappointed. Dalton Schultz took advantage of the lack of a real WR2.
Running back was the most interesting position. Joe Mixon never played after rumors in the summer that he wouldn’t due to injury. Still, it was a strange injury shrouded in mystery, so you didn’t know for sure. Nick Chubb held off Woody Marks for longer than expected as Marks seemed to overtake him a couple of times before actually being given the starting job. I would say this was a case of opportunity over talent when evaluating Marks.
IND
On pace to the best offense ever (according to points per drive which isn’t completey fair given the change in kickoff rules), the Colts did not have a great second half of the season. Still, this was maybe the biggest miss for fans and analysts alike (this or Javonte Williams). There has been several quarterbacks in recent years who were former top picks that found success elsewhere in better environments. The Colts had a solid offensive line and weapons (such good of weapons they traded AD Mitchell away), so it shouldn’t be that surprising that Daniel Jones could find another level in Indianapolis as he replaced a very limited passer. It’s too bad he got hurt, and I hope the Colts re-sign him.
Jonathan Taylor was a league winner while Jones was QB. Just another example how much QB affects other positions.
Josh Downs was an offseason darling and did nothing much. I would guess it’s because Tyler Warren encroached on his territory (Warren struggled as much as JT without DJ). Pittman had a similar downturn towards the end of the season. And then there is Alec Pierce. The guy is second in the NFL in adot but is their most valuable receiver. We will see if he re-signs.
Rivers was a nice story but not fantasy relevant.
JAX
What a dramatic opening to the season. I don’t know what exactly to believe between the Thomas-Lawrence connection, the Thomas injury, the Thomas friend death, a change to Liam Coen scheme, and general regression, but what a brutal season for Brian Thomas Jr. I will say I never quite understood the optimism for BTJ with Coen coming in as BTJ already had a ceiling level rookie season, so a change in scheme would seem to have more downside than upside.
Trevor Lawrence was much more effective down the stretch (because of the Jakobi Meyers addition?).
Parker Washington had a great run while Thomas was injured, and he has carved himself out a role with the team at full strength (well, minus Hunter, who we’ll get to). It is hard to see him being fantasy relevant going forward with the other mouths on this team, but who knows.
Jakobi Meyers was the rare midseason trade that was effective. His offseason request for a trade was sort of interesting.
Travis Hunter was the most exciting player in years. He had turned a corner (probably not because things aren’t linear, but that was the thought at the time), but suffered an injury in practice. He may play more defense next year given the Meyers trade?
It ended up being pretty conventional, but the Jagz started with a four-headed backfield. Tank Bigsby got traded, LeQuint Allen never carved out a role, and Bhayshul Tuten got hurt. The question is if Tuten didn’t get hurt would he have taken over Etienne, but I don’t think so. Etienne rewarded those looking for a bounce back (most weren’t, the consensus expectation was just being the pass-catching back in a timeshare). He started off hot, but actually finished the season stronger fantasy-wise (thanks to Lawrence and the offense being better as a whole).
KAN
Mahomes had a strong start, but leading the team in rushing was not really a positive sign. Not really a surprise that he didn’t keep rushing for touchdowns. However, not having a passing touchdown in 4 of his last 6 was worse than expected as he lost his 4th quarter magic.
Rashee Rice produced. I think his saga is pretty well established. Travis Kelce was solid for someone most wrote off (all analysts were out on him). Xavier Worthy was really disappointing as he looked like he had put it together at the end of last year (287 yards across 3 playoff games). Hollywood Brown didn’t do much which isn’t surprising, but he had his buyers after week 1. The second best receiver was Tyquan Thornton?
Can’t be happy with any of the three running backs.
LAC
Greg Roman is a run-heavy OC… Chargers proceed to spam pass attempts in week one against the Chiefs.
What a crazy ride for investing in Charger receivers. Quentin Johnston was the biggest storyline after week 4 (and had many ranking him over Ladd McConkey), but he ended up averaging only 5 ypg more than last year. McConkey turned it on in the middle of the season, but then lost it. Oronde Gadsden II had a great middle of the season too, but not a big role down the stretch. Those were three big storylines without mentioning Kennan Allen’s comeback (he faded the hardest out of anyone) and or 2nd round rookie, Tre Harris. It is a bit like the Bears, there are just too many mouths to feed.
Herbert was 2nd in the league in rushing and was able to stay relevant dealing with the Joe Alt injury and o-line issues. This was also his worst season in passing efficiency which is hard to believe as that is not the narrative at all. I think he gets a lot of credit in people’s minds for making so many players fantasy relevant.
The Najee Harris eye story was strange. Kimani Vidal ended up starting over Hassan Haskins when Hampton went down despite the reports right before kickoff saying the opposite.
LAR
Davante Adams had the most green zone targets of the century despite playing in just 14 games. It seems like every year Sean McVay has a new trick up his sleeve (he also used an insane amount of 3-TE looks this year).
Matt Stafford was an avoid in draft season due to back injury concerns. Going from maybe not playing/retiring to winning MVP is quite the turnaround.
Puka is really good.
The draft narrative (reaching for their guys in Terrance Ferguson and Jarquez Hunter) doesn’t mean much. Also, Ferguson is fourth on his team amongst tight ends in receptions, so I am not as hopeful for him next year as others.
The offseason narrative of wanting to not overload Kyren Williams ended up being true. Though, it wasn’t obvious that it would be at the start as Williams was getting his same load for the first couple of games. Fortunately, the Rams were the leading offense this year, so Willliams was still a good draft pick despite the lesser load. (Another linear learning moment… Corum was increasing his touches each week going into week 5 where he put up a dud (because he had a turnover and got benched). Some expected week 5 to be the time where he forced a 50-50 role sine he had been so efficient. Some then expected week 6 would be Williams getting almost all of the touches again. All were wrong.)
Colby Parkingson was a streamble tight end at one point which wasn’t on my bingo card.
LVR
The Raiders scored the least points (by a fair amount) this season, so their fantasy players struggled. Now, you may think, obviously, but that wasn’t the case preseason. I looked at five different sources, and the Raiders offense was ranked between 16-22 in each, so the consensus was they were a below average offense, but not bad (let alone terrible). The Carroll-Geno reunion didn’t work, and the offensive line fell apart.
Jeanty had a few games with less 0 yards before contact (though, it depends what source you are using as “contact” is not objective), so I am not too concerned with his lack of efficiency, but the list of guys with 200 carries and less than 4 ypc is underwhelming, to say the least. He had the 6th most touches this year, so anyone who thinks they were correct in fading Jeanty because you can never trust rookies had the wrong thought process.
Bowers dealt with injuries throughout the year.
Jakobi Meyers had an interesting season as he demanded a trade preseason, played, got sat out, and finally got traded.
Dont’e Thornton had some preseason hype that went nowhere (not too surprising as an athlete who wasn’t refined in college shouldn’t be expected to start strong). Bech never did much either. Tre Tucker flirted with flex-worthy play.
MIA
Those betting on a Tyreek Hill resurgence had to feel smart, until he got hurt. All of the drama surrounding Hill (and the team) in the offseason was much ado about nothing (or little).
The Dolphins got blown out by the Colts in week 1 and many didn’t think McDaniel would make it through the season.
No one next to Waddle stepped up (Malik Washington had his fans, but never really produced).
Tua will likely be a starter in week 1 of 2026 but being benched for Quinn Ewers isn’t a great sign.
De’Von Achane produced despite everything. The Ollie Gordon vs Jaylen Wright battle for backup running back was slightly interesting (Gordon being the goal line guy, but Wright being the Achane replacement which is something we’ve seen from other teams where the RB3 becomes the starter instead of the RB2).
Darren Waller coming out of retirement and being a top-six tight end was one of the crazier things that happened this season.
MIN
One of the bigger misses by the fantasy community… Kevin O’Connell can’t turn every quarterback into an above average starter. My biggest takeaway is the Vikings didn’t get a real evaluation on McCarthy last year due to his injury unlike a team like the Chiefs who knew what they had in Patrick Mahomes when they let Alex Smith go.
Jordan Mason owners had to be excited after week 1 and even more excited after Aaron Jones went down, but Mason never really leveled up. Still, given how the overall offense affected Justin Jefferson, TJ Hockenson, et al then it’s reasonable to hold out hope for Mason.
NOR
Kellen Moore came in as the new head coach with a reputation for playing quick. It proved to be true as the Saints averaged less than 26 seconds per play, the quickest in the league. Of course, it’s hard to say that it had much fantasy benefit.
Juwan Johnson started the season getting all the targets that used to go to Alvin Kamara (a tendency of Moore? That was the narrative, but it’s possible it’s a quarterback tendency or that Kamara is washed). Chris Olave had an insane target share to start the season but wasn’t putting up WR1 numbers. Both of these guys performed better in the second half of the season. You could say the lesson is to chase volume and the rest will sort itself out eventually. However, there are two big changes that happened mid-season – the Saints traded Rashid Shaheed and switched to Tyler Shough at QB. I lean towards Shaheed’s departure being more important, but Shough was a slight upgrade.
Shaheed’s trade did not work out well for fantasy owners despite the optimism of reuniting with Kubiak.
Kamara’s explosiveness is gone, but he loves New Orleans, apparently. Kendre Miller carved out a role (finally) but got injured (again). Devin Neal had a chance to prove himself the lead back going into 2026, but he got injured when handed the reins. But, the most disappointing “running back” may have been Taysom Hill who put up 0 points in championship week after setting a career high in touches the week before (though, there was word that some of that was due to it being a home game which seemingly turned out to be true).
NWE
TreVeyon Henderson, the most talked about player midseason, is the pre-eminent example of why injuries matter. Looking back, it may seem inevitable that Henderson would work his way into the rotation, but I don’t think that’s the case. Not only did Rhamondre Stevenson need to get hurt, but Antonio Gibson’s injury played a huge role as well. With both of those players hurt, Henderson’s first game was splitting carries almost 50-50 with a practice squad player.
Drake Maye broke out like many were betting on.
The receiving corps was frustrating. There was an early season narrative of Stefon Diggs being eased back in, but his snap share never really changed. Hunter Henry and Kayshon Boutte both had their weeks, but good luck choosing when to start them. (Boutte actually average the same yards per game as last year despite the feeling that he broke out.)
NYG
Not quite the Henderson situation, but another example of the influence of injury and season stats not telling the narrative. Tyrone Tracy had out-touched Skattebo 9-3 when he got injured in game 3. I would guess that Skattebo would’ve outshone Tracy at some point, but we don’t know what would’ve happened if Tracy didn’t get hurt (and, if later, Skattebo didn’t get hurt). Tracy was an easy buy when he got out-touched by Devin Singletary following Skattebo’s injury, but there was a lot of selling/dropping. Sample size of one week was much smaller than the previous season.
It was a quicker hook than I expected for Russell Wilson after he threw for 450 yards in week 2 (4th highest on the season as there were several random top 10 performances across the positions). Jaxson Dart doesn’t seem to want to stay healthy, but looked capable (without Nabers, no less).
Malik Nabers injury led to another season of spamming Wan’Dale Robinson. His efficiency was better this year, but if you remove (which I don’t like doing because it decreases sample size, but this is a funny one) his overtime game against Dallas with Russell Wilson, his overtime game against Detroit with Jameis Winston, and the week 17 game against the tanking Raiders, Robinson played 13 games and had 600 yards with 2 touchdowns. Yuck, that’s 2024 all over again.
Nabers’s injury was also an opportunity for Theo Johnson, but he never went past being a fringe TE1.
NYJ
I wouldn’t say there were a lot of people who thought Justin Fields would save the Jets, but he did have fantasy fans thanks to his legs. He was a clear sell high after week 4 as he threw for 27 yards against the Bills in week 2, and then had only garbage time success against the Dolphins and Cowboys (the two worst defenses at that point in the season).
Garrett Wilson was kept on IR since the Jets didn’t want to win. There were those championing Wilson as the next DJ Moore (i.e. Field would heavily target him) but it is hard to say if that turned out true or not given the sample size.
Breece Hall didn’t get traded. His touch per game was about the same as the past two years (slightly higher than last year), so I am not sure if I would say the preseason rumors of a more split backfield came true. However, Hall was hurt last year, and Braelon Allen got hurt this year who was the RB2. It will be interesting to see if Isaiah Davis did enough to stay ahead going into 2026 in addition to whether they re-sign Hall.
Mason Taylor and AD Mitchell each flashed, but it could just be a case of someone had to get targets. It is interesting to think if Mitchell doesn’t “fumble” at the one, then he doesn’t get traded and doesn’t get playing time. So, it honestly could’ve been better for him in the long run.
PHI
A rough showing for an offense returning all of its fantasy players. AJ Brown ended up having a 1000 yards, but it wasn’t a given. After an 11-target, 8-yard start, he had a few other disappointing games and some concerning quotes.
The talk to begin the season was that the Eagles were too run-heavy, but they ended up throwing about 100 more times than 2024.
Dallas Goedert had 11 touchdowns, more than the previous three seasons combined. He was an obvious sell, but he was a league winner for those who held as he bounced back from a midseason slump with 4 touchdowns across the last 3 games.
The rushing attack was probably more concerning. Hurts had his fewest touchdowns and yards (by far) since becoming a starter. Saquon didn’t find giant holes and went the first seven games without a 20-yard run (he ended up with 4) after a league leading 17 in 2024.
PIT
Aaron Rodgers tried his best to get more money out of the Steelers as he threatened retirement until signing in June. He/the Steelers set a record for lowest adot on a season. Why did the Steelers trade for DK Metcalf and Jonnu Smith and not use them to stretch the field, who knows.
Why did they draft Kaleb Johnson, who knows. At least the camp reports in preseason were not very positive about Johnson while Kenneth Gainwell did get positive buzz.
SEA
Sam Darnold had a quieter season than last year, but won 14 games, again.
JSN was really the only fantasy asset you wanted despite the record. After trading away DK Metcalf, the question was who could fill that WR2 role, but the answer was make the WR1 role bigger.
Cooper Kupp, Tory Horton, and Rashid Shaheed all had their windows of excitement, but nothing much materialized. Same for tight ends AJ Barner and Elijah Arroyo.
The offseason buzz was correct that Charbonnet would come into more of a 50-50 with Kenneth Walker. Neither was great despite Seattle scoring the 3rd most points in the league. Walker had his least fantasy points per game across any season of his career. Charb had his most, but never had those spike weeks because Walker stayed healthy.
SFO
Christian McCaffery had calf soreness in preseason but played the entire season. Not only that, he out-touched everyone, and by a fair amount too. His receiving usage was crazy to start the season and it mostly stayed crazy high. He never really lost work to Brian Robinson (or anyone else) despite the injury risk and limited rushing efficiency.
The CMC-Purdy stack was a league winning one. Then, Purdy had his worst game of the season against the Seahawks in week 18. Mac Jones had similar numbers when he started as Kyle Shanahan continues to prove he is a top-tier coach.
Pearsall and Kittle dealt with injuries (Tonges was fair enough as a replacement), and Pearsall actually had slightly more yards per game, but it felt like Pearsall struggled and Kittle persevered.
Jauan Jennings sort of showed last year wasn’t a fluke, but it still mostly seemed like he was the last guy standing. Kendrick Bourne had back-to-back 142 yard games when he was basically the only man standing; he had fewer yards in the other 14 games combined.
Brandon Aiyuk took his contract extension and ran.
TAM
Emeka Egbuka was one of the bigger storylines of the season. A clear sell after an outrageously good start, he ended up faltering more than anyone could have imagined, but it is a reminder that rookies are not guaranteed to improve as the year goes on.
Mike Evans and Chris Godwin had trouble staying healthy. Godwin was an interesting one as the first time he came off IR, the Bucs fed him, and the second time they said, let’s ease you in. Tez Johnson and Jalen McMillan also had spike weeks that could make you believe in their youth.
Bucky Irving had a mysterious injury (mental health?) that kept him out for probably 6 more weeks than owners expected. Worse, he was largely unimpressive upon his return. Rachaad White was fine, and Sean Tucker put up his classic one-week spike and then disappeared.
Baker Mayfield never looked (at least in terms of how his box score looked) the same after he injured his shoulder, so maybe that’s a fair narrative.
TEN
Cam Ward got better as the season went on… take the small wins.
Calvin Ridley had sort of an odd season. I still think he would’ve been the team’s leading receiver if he hadn’t broken his leg, though many gave up on him before that.
Rookies Elic Ayomanor, Chimere Dike, and Gunnar Helm were (medium) hot names at different points. I couldn’t say I am excited about any going into next year, but they’re not bad either.
The Titans went another season of playing Tyjae Spears as the backup running back (which has to be disappointing for bag holders). Tony Pollard was uninspiring through the first dozen games but eventually turned it on, so it seems the Titans know what they were doing.
WAS
Bill. I would like to stop there, but people claiming he underperformed don’t understand the expectation of a guy drafted as the RB40. He wasn’t a league winner but believe the hype when a beat reporter says a team may offload their starting running back in preseason. Also, it was sort of interesting how long the Commanders waited until putting him as the starter, and then how long he was the starter until being yanked. Week 5 seemed like the job was his and he’d be a league winner.
Jayden Daniels couldn’t stay healthy, so it’s hard to grade a lot of the team, even if Mariota did alright. It was interesting how the Commanders went about (not) taking it slow with Daniels.
Was McLaurin’s injury because he didn’t play in preseason as he was holding out?
Deebo Samuel had an okay season. The Commanders didn’t use him as a rusher as much as people thought (especially given the running back situation).
Ertz’s career is probably over.
Chris Rodriguez and Jeremy McNichols both were flex-considerations at points. It’s sort of interesting that McNichols didn’t keep the a pass-catching role after Ekeler got injured.