Olave keeps popping up as a "buy low" candidate — the concussion history, the blood clot, the Saints being the Saints. But I pulled KTC this morning and had to double-check the numbers. Olave: 5,593 (WR15) Wilson: 5,669 (WR14)
That's a 76-point gap. Basically nothing. These two were drafted back-to-back in 2022, and for three years Wilson has been priced as the clearly superior asset. Now they're the same price. I don't think the market has caught up to what happened this year.
Wilson played seven games before the Jets shut him down. 36/395/4. The team went 3-14. Fields got benched, Tyrod got hurt, they finished with Brady Cook looking like an undrafted rookie because he is one. Wilson's $130M extension kicked in and he spent most of the year watching the organization burn down around him. They're picking second in the draft. Every quarterback on the roster is probably gone. Aaron Glenn comes from a defensive background. I want no part of the Jets organization right now.
Olave played 16 games and put up 100/1,163/9, all career highs. His connection with Tyler Shough over the second half looked incredibly exciting. With Shough under center, Olave posted +27.3 EPA and averaged 2.4 yards per route run. In the first eight weeks with Spencer Rattler? Negative EPA and 1.7 YPRR. That Week 17 game against Tennessee is the one I keep going back to, down 13-0 early, Shough brought them back, including a 60-yard bomb where he just trusted his arm and let Olave run under it.
Yeah, Shough's sample is small, ten games, soft schedule down the stretch. But his 103.3 third-down passer rating led the NFL. He won Offensive Rookie of the Month. The Saints went 4-1 with three fourth-quarter comebacks. And Kellen Moore has committed to him as the starter for 2026. Moore hyper-targets his alpha receivers, CeeDee Lamb had a 30% target share under him, put up career highs (107/1,359/9), and the Cowboys led the league in both scoring and total yards in 2021. Last year Moore's Eagles won the Super Bowl with Saquon winning OPOY. Having your WR1 in a Kellen Moore offense with a young QB on a rookie deal is exactly the setup you want.
The medical stuff is real. Four NFL concussions, a pulmonary embolism caught in Week 18. Olave said after the Jets game: "I was only 24 years old, contemplating retirement, especially with the head injuries." That quote worries me. But he already faced that decision and chose football. Played 16 games, put up career numbers, looked like someone who'd made peace with the risk. If you're going to fade him, fade him on the injury concern. Don't fade him because the market hasn't adjusted to the fact that his situation got dramatically better while Wilson's got dramatically worse.
At WR15, Olave is fairly valued to slightly undervalued. At WR14 for Wilson given the Jets' state, I think he's overvalued. The gap should be wider, and it should favor Olave. I'd rather have Olave right now and I don't think it's that close.
What could prove me wrong? Shough regresses, the Jets somehow find a real quarterback, or Olave's medical situation gets worse. But I'm betting on the guy whose quarterback just led three game-winning drives in a 4-1 stretch, not the guy whose team just went 3-14 with an undrafted rookie under center.
Anyone else think the market is wrong here? Or am I overweighting Olave’s late 2025 season?
The saints being the saints doesn’t compare to the jets being the jets
Who do you think they draft with the 2nd?
Depends on how quick Madden updates rookie’s stats
Zach Wilson 2.0
Ty Simpson?
It’s not really a question at this point. It’s 100% going to be Dante Moore. They don’t have a qb
eh they've still got the Malik Willis option where they could get picks for the pick and roll with Malik for 1-2 years with Trinidad or Simpson behind him
They have two 1sts right? I could see them drafting a stud at some other position at #2 and then getting a qb later in the 1st or in the 2nd. Are we really all that sure about Moore? If they aren't sure about him I'd pass and take the best available player at other positions. Personally I don't think the gap between Moore and Simpson or Chambliss is all that great. I reserve the right to be 100% wrong with my assessment.
Who are the QBs in this draft besides Mendoza? We've got Dante Moore, Ty Simpson, and maybe Trinidad Chambliss? Not a lot of time to waste in the first round. There probably isn't a really good QB on Day 2 or 3. And I think the Jets will take a QB, but I don't think this is the year for it.
Oh you're right, there probably isn't anyone worthwhile on day 2 or 3, but with 2 1st round picks I think it would be smart of them to grab the best non-qb at #2 and grab 1 of those other guys with their 2nd first round pick. Maybe I'm crazy, but I think that would be the smart decision. Hell, I think next year is looking to be a much stronger qb draft, maybe they should try to build the team up and then they could bring in a qb in the '27 draft. To be clear I'm a Pats fan so I would prefer to see the Jets to stay awful, but I still think waiting on a qb and building up the rest of the roster would be in their best interest. If the Raiders pass on Mendoza, take him of course but otherwise pass on qb.
Since it's the Jets - just Inverse the smart thing to do - they will call the raiders and offer two first round picks to move up to #1 and still not take mendoza
Ya I could see that happening, they'll trade away everything good for Mendoza, ruin him, and the Jets will be the Jets for all of eternity. I thank God every day that I'm not a Jets fan.
I'm with you on drafting next year. If I were the Jets, I'd be building in the trenches and working on scheme, then looking to next year's crop for QB. I don't think Dante Moore is significantly better than say, LaNorris Sellers or any of the other options for next year. I don't think the Jets will resist it though.
Ya I don't think they'll resist either. I guess they need to get people like us working in their front office. We certainly couldn't do a worse job.
For almost any other team, I'd disagree. For the Jets? I'm with you on that.
Usually when you build in the trenches you bring in some vet journeyman or aging QB looking for one last ride. Weird thing about the league is there isn't really a guy like that right now.
Tua and Kyler are going to be the best free agent QBs, probably.
Flacco and Russ are your aging journeymen.
Jacoby Brissett and Mac Jones are the backups looking for their chance to start.
Daniel Jones and Kirk Cousins could hit the market but will probably be retained by their teams.
I mean Brissett and Mac are perfectly fine stopgap options and better than what the jets been putting out recently
There’s really no other option for a starter next year. Malik Willis is a worse option than just drafting a qb and despite Moore looking like shit in his last game, he has the same upside as Mendoza
Yes, Jets have #16 (IND), plus #33 and #44 (DAL). Call it recency bias, but last night sobered me up regarding Moore. I agree with your take. Love his arm but they can't afford the gamble at #2. I could maybe see them go after Simpson or Chambliss later, and take an immediate contributor at #2.
Moore’s draft stock cratered last night. Might as well keep Justin Fields. It’ll be Beck if anyone.
They might as well trade the pick. If they take a QB there, it will fail.
That team needs to stop chasing wins, and start chasing competition. With their roster, they have 4-5 more years before they can even think about winning.
Carson Beck.
Bro Tyler is looking like he may be kinda nice low key
Doesn't it even help, at least in this situation?
Olave is going to be 26 in late June, so it's probably better to be a part of an org that prioritizes winning now above all else. And pair that with a good offensive-minded coach.
Olave is younger than his own QB. The Saints are gonna have to be in win now mode very quickly.
Jets dont have a QB, and the Saints might.
That alone is a reason to roll with Olave.
I was thinking the same thing. One of the first things you should think about is "Who is the QB?"
Look at what happened to poor Jetta.
Jetta was in a slump himself. He dropped 5 Tds this year not to mention all the yards lost.
The QB play was terrible but he didn't do himself any favors with the opportunities he had.
yeah, no camp really hurt him then I think he mentally checked out halfway through
Couldnt you arguably say the same thing about Shough this year though? Worked out for one team, absolutely dumptser fired for another.
It was my fault. First time I was able to draft him.
On contrare to you point of view - just playing devil's advocate here.
But Garrett wilson has some pretty amazing seasons with some real trash QBs - and Jets have the #2 pick of the draft where they almost certainly will get a good QB - maybe that good QB will help Garrett wilson have a great season. (With the exception of 40+yo Aaron rodgers - the random guy the Jets draft will be the best passer Garrett wilson ever had throwing him the ball)
Anything can happen in the offseason. Jets should atleast have a qb better than Fields.
fields wasn’t good but he and wilson had a lot of chemistry since they had so many college reps together. wilson was actually doing well before injury
Wilson had a few good games with Fields throwing to him in garbage time, but Fields was continuously regressing throughout the season. He passed for 45 yards in the Denver game, and Wilson picked up the injury that killed his season at the very end of that game.
You can’t trust a WR in a passing offense that bad, no matter how high his target share.
You could say after that point, Fields had “nobody to throw to,” but nearly every QB2 in the league would have topped his 46 passing yards in the first half of the following Garrett-less game against Carolina (before he was benched). Fields had another comparably bad performance a couple weeks later before being benched permanently.
Which is to say, if Garrett had stayed healthy all season, I think the increasingly poor QB play would have tanked his numbers anyway, and his early season success would have looked like a mirage.
There’s nowhere to go but up in terms of who the Jets’ Week 1 QB will be. But Garrett is a DND in redraft for me, given that the FA market is weak and so is this QB draft class. His 2026 situation will probably be only marginally better.
Olave looks like he has a stable situation. Shough is exciting! I’d much rather own him in dynasty for the next few years in the Moore and Shough environment, as opposed to gambling on the Jets figuring anything out.
"should"
Shivers
Oh wait it's the Jets, how foolish of me.
Olave will have a better season next year if Shough progresses
He'll have a better season if Shough stays the same in standard. Full PPR is the only format Wilson might have an edge.
Assuming he stays healthy. He’s still potentially one concussion away from hanging them up
Fortunately, Shough doesn’t throw Derek Carr hospital balls and Kellen Moore doesn’t scheme hospital route concepts. Garrett Wilson has missed significant time with injury himself as well.
I like Olave more than Wilson.
As a fantasy asset, I do too. As a player I think Garrett Wilson is one of the best and it pains me to watch him on the jets who can’t figure out QB.
That being said, even with shit QBs he was ballin early season before he got hurt
What would you need to trade Wilson for Olave?
Is this all a very elaborate trade advice thread?
Always is
Fun fact I just looked up because I knew Shough was relatively old when he was drafted:
Tyler Shough is 8 days older than Trevor Lawrence.
Strictly for fantasy purposes, I'd take Olave right now, simply because he might actually have a good QB. Key word there is MIGHT.
I actually think Garrett Wilson is the better player (by a decent margin to!), but his situation in NY is gnarly right now. In the right offense with a decent QB, Wilson could be a serious problem.
Out of curiosity, why do you think that GWill is so much ahead of Olave as a player?
I feel like Olave just lacks explosiveness. Hes obviously a good player, but I don't see the same potential in him, that i see in Garrett Wilson. Garrett Wilson is faster, and far more electric after the catch. Olave reminds me a lot of Amari Cooper, in that hes a very well rounded WR, but he's not "elite" at anything. Olave is very much a jack of all trades, master of none type of player. I think what we seen from him this year, is likely his peak. Garrett Wilson on the other hand, has played with garbage QBs every year outside of one year with Rodgers, and him and Rodgers didn't get along, and he was splitting targets with Adams. And despite Wilson's not ideal QB play for almost his entire career, hes still put up numbers when he's on the field.
Thanks for the detailed and well thought out response, not sure why you got downvoted.
I agree with your main impression, but personally don’t see it as that large of a gap. There are areas where Wilson is better (athleticism, explosiveness, YAC ability) and others where Olave is better (route running, hands, ball tracking, finding spots in zone coverage). They are both very good separators, but they achieve that in different ways (athlete vs technician). I see it somewhat similar to Waddle vs Devonta debate.
And for the record, I don’t have much skin in the game, I haven’t had Olave or Wilson on any of my teams over the last 2 years (London is my crush from that draft class lol), and I can see why someone would have Wilson > Olave, but I just don’t think it’s a large gap, especially as they are about to start their Year 5 in the league, so the arguments about upside/potential are a bit past due, they are probably mostly who they are at this point in their careers.
In points per game,
Olave:
2025: WR7
2024: WR56 (if you exclude the 2 games he left in like the first 5 minutes of the game, this goes up to WR34)
2023: WR20
2022: WR22
Wilson:
2025: WR15
2024: WR21
2023: WR33
2022: WR31
I totally get liking what you see on tape better from Garrett Wilson, but both players have been in dogshit situations their whole careers. Olave, outside of his terrible injury season last year, has been consistently a WR2 at minimum while Garrett Wilson has been borderline unstartable for stretches. Olave finally gets an okay (not even great!) QB and finished as a mid WR1 with arguably more target competition than Wilson has ever had.
Both guys were very similar prospects and taken back to back in the draft. I think people remember the fact that Garrett Wilson finished as WR10 last year just due to all the insane injuries (Jerry Jeudy was WR11 lmao) but fail to realize that it was only because he was one of the rare WRs that played 17 games last year.
All of this is to say that I think both players are probably similarly talented, but you gotta go the guy in the better situation who has proven more imo. To be completely honest, I had Olave above Wilson before this season happened though. Injury thing didn't scare me, and when Wilson signed his contract with the Jets, I lost hope for him.
I do think a big part of this "decision" just comes down to personal preference honestly, and even though I "like" Wilson's talent more, even I admitted in my original post that if this was strictly a fantasy decision, I'd take Olave. BUT, I acknowledge that is strictly because he's in a significantly better situation.
I do think you are under selling just how bad Garrett Wilson has had it since coming into the league a little bit though. Outside of the one season where he had Rodgers as his QB, his QBs have been Zach Wilson, Trevor Simeon, Tim Boyle, Mike White and 5 games of Joe Flacco. Thats HIDEOUS. And he was still putting up 1,000+ yards per season, even with those QBs. And I do want to point out one thing I think you got wrong in your analysis of Wilson, in that the one year he did have a decent QB (Rodgers), he also coincidentally had Davante Adam's to compete with for targets. Which sucks, because prior to Davante getting traded to the Jets, Wilson was on pace to have a career year with Rodgers.
I'm not saying Olave has had great QBs either by any means, but I do think compared to Wilson's situation, Olave has had it at least marginally better than Wilson. Olave has had Andy Dalton, Jameis Winston, Derek Carr, Spencer Rattler and now a solid looking Tyler Shough throwing to him, on much better overall offenses. Compared to who Wilson has had at QB, I'd say Olave QBs were at least a slight upgrade. I also remember two years ago when Derek Carr was the QB for the Saints, there were people wondering if Olave was even the best WR on the team, because Rashid Shaheed was putting up very similar stats as him in the early parts of that season.
Again, I do think this choice comes down to personal preference for most. If its fantasy related, Olave is probably the smarter choice. But if I was drafting a real life NFL team, I'm taking Wilson over Olave. But, I'll admit they are closer than maybe I initially gave them credit for. Garrett Wilson's "film" just pops a little more I think, which is why I prefer him talent wise.
Garret Wilson might be a legit top 5 WR in the league with an actual QB.
Agreed. I feel the same way about Wilson as a player, but Olave I think showed he has the talent, and his situation is infinitely better with a forward outlook that would make me target him as a fantasy asset over Wilson in the current state.
Wilson....Olave is a few concussions away from retiring unfortunately
Good thing I’m someone who has both! Who is with me!?
Can’t lose when you play both sides.
Can’t win when you can’t play both sides lol ( cuz of injuries )
I will say that Vele getting injured really opened up targets and propelled Olave into a WR 1 during fantasy playoffs.
Slightly concerned if the saints pick a top receiver up (Tyson, Lemon, Tate) in the draft and what the target distribution impacts of that would look like for Olave.
I can see the Saints taking Love with their pick.
I’m a Saint fan, and I know next year I will most likely pick Olave in the 2nd round because I know he will be gone by then.
Like the dude said Vele being out really helped Olave out. The Saints also have quite a bit of WRs on IR for next season. In addition I wouldn’t be suprised if we drafted a WR in the first 2 rounds.
That all being said Olave is still the main focus on this team and next year he’s probably going to be a safe 10-12 points a game. He will explode more often than not but those last few weeks of the regular season he was the only option.
I’m picking Olave in the 2nd mostly just because I love him but I know eod he will be pretty reliable especially if he does sign a huge contract
They need an RB more
Olave just had a really good season lol. What kind of question is this
Guys in my league thought I was crazy for preferring Olave over Wilson. Trying to get some public sentiment ahead of startup drafts and also test where my head is at vs the public.
Olave>wilson as it stands now no question. They are factoring in upside. If the jets get a good QB then it's a discussion. As of now your league mates are more focused on what could be.
And this is an interesting point. Jets will almost assuredly be taking Moore or maybe Simpson. Are we valuing Shough over the #2 pick? I think I agree but it's interesting.
After this Indiana vs Oregon game I think we are absolutely valuing Shough over Dante Moore.
It’s reasonable, before Wilson got injured he was ahead of Olave. Barring injury he absolutely could’ve had the better year.
Wilson
May I ask why? I’d like to hear the other sides argument.
The jets are the worst organization in all of American sports, and Wilson is a bright spot. I know olave situation hasn’t been much better, but it’s the fucking jets man. Idk that’s all
And that would lead you to pick Wilson? I agree Wilson is a hell of a receiver. I just don’t think his talent outweighs the organization and situation in NY.
He’d be a PPR play. How he could pan out is if he’s getting 11-12 targets on the regular.
He’s a good enough receiver that he’ll catch a lot of those if they’re anywhere near him…
Then you’ve got a nice, safe-floor guy to WR2 or flex.
I’m not a buyer, but that would be the buyer’s rationale.
Garrett slightly. Olave concussion stuff still scares me.
Olave with a qb is better than Garrett with a question mark. I think we're about to see the Saints start to build a good team.
Olave easily. Wilson is going to continue being in QB hell for the foreseeable future, especially because the Jets may not even be drafting a QB this year. Mendoza won’t fall to them and I don’t see them taking Moore anymore, feels more likely they’ll go with a free agent option like Malik Willis or Kenny Pickett. Meanwhile, Olave has already shown he can be prolific with Shough, and Shough has proved he knows how to get the ball to Olave without putting him in the hospital. The blood clot thing was just a freak occurrence from what I understand. Wilson has quietly been injured quite a lot and has also struggled to stay on the field.
Olave is better because Wilson has funny sleeves.
I like wilson more if the jets were competent, buts then again that’s the issue
Yeah consensus across the post is Wilson is the better player, but the current situation and unknown future outlook puts him below Olave.
Yeah, tbh shough is really that guy. I think olave has much better fantasy outlook
Olave, jets are a mess.
On draft day I took Wilson but I wish I had taken Olave.
Wilson was really solid for 6 weeks though.
Garrett wilson gets a million targets and barely does anything with them. Olave all day
I’m in a keeper league and have to choose between Pickens (6th round), Rice (5th round), or Olave (7th round). It’s keep 2 so I’m thinking Olave and Pickens. Olave with Shough were cooking towards the end of the season. Wilson with either Mendoza or Moore might be scary.
In a vacuum I think Rice is such a good player. Such a shame he has so many issues off field. Rip to at least one of my dynasty teams.
It really sucks, he's got all the talent in the world but can't keep it together off the field. That and then with Mahomes most likely not being ready to almost mid-season, Rice's production might dip.
I traded for worthy and am just gonna hold and hope…
He messed up once and served his suspension. I don’t see how him getting injured and now Mahomes getting injured relates to off field issues at this point.
Wait are you not aware of his recent incident that’s being investigated?
Oh damn I didn’t see that yet. Looks like it just came out a couple days ago. This fuckin guy.
Yeah bro should be cooked. Probably won’t be but deserves it.
Yeah he’s not the smartest it seems. Unfortunate.
As someone who had them both this year. Olave
Who’s the qb?
Olaves better
What fucking season isn't over already
Season is over. This post was more dynasty related / just talking about the players.
sorry dude I was really drunk; not an excuse, an explanation.
lol thanks for the reply. All good man
My biggest concern with the Saints is that they draft a real WR1, moving Olave to slot where he belongs, and his ceiling is heavily capped.
I think Chris Olave has always had the talent of a “real WR1” and took the leap this year, his first year with better-than-awful QB play. Many teams top receiver is a slot receiver.
Kellen Moore feeds the slot
I’ve been avoiding drafting people from the jets the last 2 seasons and it’s gone pretty well. GW was looking a mistake fade until he got injured but other than that, avoiding jets players has been the right move and will be the right move for a while. The jets are just a bad franchise.
I’m not drafting Wilson again.
Garrett Wilson bc he fw Mac Demarco
Why not both?
I’m a pretty big Garrett Wilson stan. I think hes a top 10 receiver in the league in terms of talent. I got him for $19 in auction this year and didn’t regret it at all. I’d imagine the price will be significantly cheaper for Wilson than Olave next year. I view him no different than Jefferson in terms of fantasy and Jefferson will probably go 2-3 rounds earlier
Depends on what the Jets organization does with its offense and who they wind up with as QB. Based on what we do know up to this point I’d choose Olave.
In the immediate future Olave>Wilson
I want the dude who played more this season
the Saints got their new QB at 40th overall. The Jets have four picks in the top 46 or so. Should be no problem. All in on Wilson!!
Too early to say….probably best to revisit this after the draft….but for now I lean Olave. Just hope Jets get a QB soon because it’s a shame Garrett Wilson is wasting his talent on that team.
Wilson
Olave
Wilson.
Olave has a blood clot. This is not a minor issue and potentially could never play again.
Olave is in the better situation right at this second, his target share is very high, but I think Wilson is the better player. If the Jets can get just competent play from a qb, and have a qb stay healthy, I believe Wilson can easily be a top 8 fantasy wr moving forward. I do realize he's on the Jets and I know they'll never actually get competent play from the qb, but if they can......
Olave and it isn't particularly close
Not sure if this is a hot take but I think the saints have been the best team in their division since Shough started shining. Would expect them to be a playoff team next year with Olave as a huge fantasy asset.
I'm all in on Olave, especially with the chance of a solid QB making things happen, while Wilson seems stuck in a Jets circus.
I’d lean towards Olave. The potential for a better QB situation in New Orleans is a big plus. Wilson has talent, but the Jets’ struggles make it tough for him to shine consistently.
Olave easily
They really are similar players. For 2026, I'd take Olave because of the QB and better playing conditions in his division. Dynasty? Hmm. Maybe GW just because of Olave's concussions.
Can I say neither?
Who would you go for that’s around the same skill level/rank?
Tet, Jameson Williams, McConkey, Flowers
100% agree on tet. After that I think the closest to that is McConkey for me. I would rather have Olave or Wilson over Jameson Williams or Flowers.
Jameson Williams bounced on and off the waiver wire in my redraft league this year because he would intermittently drop sub 5 point games.
It also depends on if Wilson is traded...that could really change his upside, but the Jets are a fucking train wreck. The Saints I think will b good as soon as next season but Olave seems like he's one concussion away from retirement or missing the season, just like Tua, too many hits to the head.
Olave 100%
Is this a trade offer in your dynasty league?
Probably Olave because the odds are that Jets are going to have someone who's A) incompetent or B) unproven as their QB next year.
Ohio State is a WR factory.
Olave
In dynasty Wilson all the way!!!
I drafted both this season, garret had a decent start and Olave had the furious finish and took me all the way to the championship game. Olave has the upside for next year for sure having a decent qb in shough
Olave bruh, easily for me.
Chris Olave easily
People really forgot about olave’s concussion problems eh
Yep. I traded him last year (kamara and diggs in a dynasty) and yeah I wish I had that one back, but I’ve watched Olave get pounded going back to his OSU days….
Neither... But Chris lol
For real, this is a prime example of what to avoid. You have a choice in fantasy football and the right choice is neither if you are trying to win a championship.
I would like to take this opportunity to thank Chris Olave for being a crucial piece to my championship this year.
Yeah he was awesome. WR9, WR2 and WR2 during the playoffs.
Wilson. He is the better Player and Olave is one concussion away from being done.