This is the beginning of the article. The article as a whole is meant to summarize the 2025 season. Without being a novel, I tried to hit the major storylines and narratives for each team. It also acknowledges some trends and shows the basics of points per game for each position (actual, expected, 1st half of season, 2nd half of season). Honestly, I think it is more useful to read next August when you are trying to make your pre-draft rankings and you forgot TreVeyon Henderson was at out point getting out-touched by practice squad hero, Terrell Jennings, or forgot that Ja'Marr Chase was being ranked outside the top 12 wide receivers when Jake Browning was quarterback.

Introduction

Should you have drafted Trey McBride or Brock Bowers as the first tight end off the board? Well, obviously, McBride. He had almost double the amount of yards and touchdowns. If you think that is unfair, on a per-game basis McBride averaged 73 yards receiving to Bowers 57. Still, obviously, McBride. He was the clear safe pick as the veteran who had shown multiple times he could be a top tight end while Bowers had an exciting rookie year but we’ve seen sophomore slumps happen before (i.e. Kyle Pitts) and he was due for regression. Which means those that drafted McBride over Bowers were “right,” right?

McBride averaged 55 ypg across the first five games with Kyler Murray (and only scored 1 touchdown). I never heard a single person predict that Jacoby Brissett would win the starting job, the Cardinals defense would fall apart in the second half of the season, and that McBride would be second in the league in redzone targets.

Bowers started the year with a 100-yard game. Many were optimistic as the Raiders had brought in a veteran coaching staff, paid Geno Smith instead of rolling out some combination of Minshew-O’Connell-Ridder, and drafted a game-changer in Jeanty. Bowers proceeded to get hurt; an injury that both lingered and forced him to miss multiple games at two different points in the season. The Raiders proceeded to have the worst record in the league and score the least points through the first 16 weeks of a season since 2018. Many thought this would be an average offense.

It is tough enough to evaluate a player’s ability, but predicting a player’s situation is even tougher. Hindsight is 20-20. Fantasy is more luck than skill.

Breakouts and Disappointments

Using a simple logistic regression between preseason rank and points per game, we can get a basic idea of who over- and underperformed on the season. According to this regression, here are the 2025 outliers…

overQB - Stafford, Jones, Maye, Lawrence, Brissett, Dart

underQB - Lamar, Tua, Daniels, Burrow, Ward, Geno

overRB - Taylor, Javonte, Etienne, Dowdle, Skattebo, Judkins, Cook, CMC, Warren, Dobbins, Stevenson

underRB - Kaleb, Kamara, Bigsby, Pacheco, Saquon, Hubbard, Jeanty

overWR - Puka, JSN, Pickens, Rice, Olave, Watson, Johnston, Boutte, Robinson, Washington, Franklin, Pierce, Wilson (it was a good year to invest in presidential WRs)

underWR - Aiyuk, Jefferson, BTJ, Ridley, Golden, Worthy, McConkey, Kirk

overTE - Kraft, McBride, Goedert, Fannin, Waller, Gadsden

underTE - Engram, Hockenson, Njoku, Likely, Jonnu, Andrews