Every season, several WRs break out and heavily outperform their ADP. They're usually young, talented, and thrust into a more favorable situation. Whether that be improvements in coaching, QB play, or the volume they see. In 2025, we had only a few WRs who truly broke out:
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR14 ADP | WR2 Finish)
- JSN had all the talent required to break out, but he finally had the other necessary pieces to do so: QB upgrade, coaching upgrade, & a route tree upgrade, plus seeing a large number of vacated targets with the departure of DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Noah Fant
- George Pickens (WR29 ADP | WR5 Finish)
- Pickens moved from the Steelers to the Cowboys this offseason and experienced both QB and offensive scheme upgrades, which were able to unlock his full potential
- He also had the advantage of CeeDee Lamb dealing with injuries on and off throughout the season
- Pickens moved from the Steelers to the Cowboys this offseason and experienced both QB and offensive scheme upgrades, which were able to unlock his full potential
- Chris Olave (WR35 ADP | WR6 Finish)
- Olave was able to stay relatively healthy for the entire season (dealt with some back issues in the latter part of the year), after an injury-riddled 2024
- Tyler Shough also looked incredibly solid in the final 7 games of his rookie season, making Olave a league winner in the fantasy football playoffs
- Olave was able to stay relatively healthy for the entire season (dealt with some back issues in the latter part of the year), after an injury-riddled 2024
- Michael Wilson\* (WR81 ADP | WR10 Finish)
- Wilson only broke out because Jacoby Brissett took over for Kyler Murray, and because Marvin Harrison Jr. missed time dealing with injuries in the 2nd half of the season
- I still think Wilson looked fantastic and was deserving of a larger role in the Cardinals' offense. I wouldn't be surprised if he continued to impress in 2026 and beyond
- Wilson only broke out because Jacoby Brissett took over for Kyler Murray, and because Marvin Harrison Jr. missed time dealing with injuries in the 2nd half of the season
- Jameson Williams (WR27 ADP | WR12 Finish)
- Williams achieved a top-12 finish in 2025, despite recording 7 games under 10.0 fantasy points, including 2 games in which he didn't score a single fantasy point
- His WR12 finish was largely due to Dan Campbell taking over play-calling in week 10
- Williams achieved a top-12 finish in 2025, despite recording 7 games under 10.0 fantasy points, including 2 games in which he didn't score a single fantasy point
- Wan'Dale Robinson\* (WR63 ADP | WR14 Finish)
- Robinson really only broke out because Malik Nabers suffered a season-ending injury in Week
What I want people to keep in mind this offseason is that 2025 was one of the most lackluster seasons for WR production we've experienced in the last decade. Thanks to Ryan Heath, we have a visualization of how poor the mid-tier WRs performed in fantasy football:
There are likely multiple reasons why WR production was down so drastically in 2025, and I know Ryan will evaluate every possibility to the deepest extent in an upcoming article. Here are some of the immediate thoughts:
- The offensive Meta has changed (pass attempts, completions, and passing TDs were all down in 2025 compared to the prior 5 years)
- QB play has been down, and young QBs have generally struggled as of late
- The Kickoff rule change (teams starting on the 35-yard line is ridiculous)
- Teams ran 2 TE sets at a much higher rate in 2025
- Injuries
- Defensive Coverages have evolved, and passing schemes have failed to adapt appropriately
So, rather than over-hype a bunch of WRs in the offseason, I want to try to temper everyone's expectations for the WR position in 2026. For that reason, I am only going to mention a select few WRs who I think have the potential to perform similarly to our 2025 breakout WRs
- The first 4 WRs listed I feel much more strongly about than the last 3
He already broke out in 2024, but I also think that Drake London is the most likely candidate to follow in JSN's footsteps in 2026, pending the coaching and QB decisions the Falcons make this offseason
- I'll likely do a solo piece of London at some point in the offseason
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Ricky Pearsall
The biggest hurdle Pearsall faces to his breaking out in 2026 is his inability to stay healthy. He's failed to string together more than a few "fully healthy" games in his first two years in the league, and he dealt with a PCL injury for the majority of the 2025 season. However, when he has been relatively healthy, Pearsall has shown some great flashes of talent and potential WR1 upside
- Pearsall missed 8 games total in 2025, finishing as the WR72 on 9.8 FPG
Pearsall likely returned too early in Week 11 from his original PCL injury, and put up some abysmal numbers in those first 3 games back, before the 49ers' Week 14 bye
Pearsall in Weeks 11-13
- 83.7% Route Share (WR22)
- 3.0 Targets/G (WR83)
- 6.7 Receiving YPG (WR109)
- 0.26 YPRR (WR109)
- 2.4 FPG (WR108)
- 0.000 Average Separation Score (WR91)
- 10.5% Route Win Rate (WR67)
I believe that Pearsall was struggling in trying to play through that PCL injury, and these were largely outlier weeks. For that reason, I wanted to look at his "healthier" stretches of play
Pearsall in Weeks 1-4, 15 & 17
- 7.3 Targets/G (WR18)
- 84.7 Receiving YPG (WR4)
- 2.75 YPRR (WR4)
- 0.135 First Down per Route Run (WR3)
- 13.6 FPG (WR16)
- 0.163 Average Separation Score (WR2)
- 23.4% Route Win Rate (WR1)
These are the numbers of a far more talented WR, and represent the kind of production that I believe we can expect from Pearsall if he can remain healthy for a full season (easier said than done)
- Jauan Jennings is set to be a free agent this offseason, on top of Brandon Aiyuk undoubtedly moving to a new team
The 49ers' offensive scheme, with the lack of truly elite target competition at WR (George Kittle has largely been the true "WR1" for the 49ers as of late), and the level that Brock Purdy has been capable of playing at, can combine to propel the top WR on this team to a top-12 finish in 2026
Brock Purdy's Metrics in 2025
- 100.5 Passer Rating (QB8)
- 7.00 ANY/A (QB9)
- 7.1% Completion Percentage Over Expectation (QB2)
- 80.5% Adjusted Completion Percentage (QB3)
- 78.9% Catchable Target Rate (QB5)
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Luther Burden
Burden was barely used for the majority of his rookie season, stuck as the WR4 on the depth chart, behind the likes of Olamide Zaccheaus. He came on in the latter half of the year, and his final four games have garnered a lot of hype in the fantasy community. I expect his value to rise continually this offseason
- Burden finished as the WR48 on 8.5 FPG in 2025
2025 Volume Metrics
- 41.0% Route Share (WR101)
- 4.0 Targets/G (WR66)
- 11.9% Target Share (WR69)
- 16.3% First-Read Target Share (WR65)
- 6.5 XFP/G (WR72)
2025 Efficiency Metrics
- 0.26 TPRR (WR11)
- 2.83 YPRR (WR3)
- 0.117 First Downs per Route Run (WR12)
- 0.56 FP/RR (WR8)
Burden was well deserving of more volume in the Bears' offense, but it wasn't until Week 11 that he first saw a route share north of 50.0%
- Burden averaged a 27.1% Route Share in Weeks 1-10, and a 56.4% Route Share in Weeks 11-18
Metrics in Games with a 50.0%+ Route Share (Weeks 11, 12, & 14-18)
- 6.0 Targets/G (WR36)
- 66.2 Receiving YPG (WR14)
- 3.03 YPRR (WR3)
- 24.8% First-Read Target Share (WR30)
- 0.153 1D/RR (WR3)
- 12.6 FPG (WR21)
- 0.140 Average Separation Score (WR4)
- 15.5% Route Win Rate (WR9)
The #1 thing I want to highlight is that Burden was able to maintain, and even increase his already high level of efficiency, after earning more volume. I still want to pump the brakes a little bit on Burden heading into 2026, because I've seen people rank him as high as a top-15 WR in Redraft Leagues already
- Rome Odunze dealt with a foot injury for the majority of the second half of the season, allowing Burden a somewhat easier path to more volume
- We'll have to keep an eye on whether DJ Moore is moved this offseason, as that could open up 82 vacated targets
Caleb Williams, with the help of Ben Johnson's offensive scheme and the Bears having a top-3 pass-blocking OL, played at a high enough level in 2025 to support a WR finishing inside the top-15:
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Christian Watson
Watson was a pleasant surprise in 2025, coming off a major ACL injury he sustained in 2024, he returned halfway to action in Week 8, and averaged 13.2 FPG, along with the following:
- 18.2% Target Share (WR35)
- 61.1% Receiving YPG (WR17)
- 2.67 YPRR (WR4)
- 0.122 1D/RR (WR10)
The biggest issue I found with Watson's 2025 metrics was his 0.013 Average Separation Score (WR81) and 12.1% Route Win Rate (WR47). We have to remember that Watson was coming off a major injury, likely limiting his route-running abilities, because in 2024, they were far better when he was fully healthy:
- 0.187 Average Separation Score (WR6)
- 22.2% Route Win Rate (WR5)
Watson is also one of the best deep-threat WRs in the league (15.0+ aDOT), and here is how he ranked among his deep-threat peers:
- 18.2% Target Share (WR2)
- 0.24 TPRR (WR3)
- 63.6% Catch Rate (WR6)
- 2.67 YPRR (WR1)
- 23.9% First-Read Target share (WR2)
- 0.122 1D/RR (WR2)
- 80.0% Catchable Target Rate (WR2)
- 122.6 Passer Rating when Targeted (WR5)
Malik Nabers was the only WR who was arguably better as a deep-threat WR in 2025, and his metrics were pulled from a much smaller sample size
- One of the biggest arguments for Watson in 2026 is the fact that he is clearly the Packers WR that Jordan Love has the best connection with, and mosts trust downfield
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Tetairoa McMillan
McMillan might fall down draft boards in 2026 because of two things: His disappointing 4-week stretch to end the season (9.2 FPG), and Bryce Young remaining the starting QB
- It was reported that McMillan was dealing with a foot and ankle injury in the last month of the regular season
- He still finished his rookie season as the WR15 on 12.4 FPG
I want to highlight some of his metrics from Weeks 1-13 (prior to that injury):
- 90.5% Route Share (WR7)
- 7.3 Targets/G (WR18)
- 63.5 Receiving YPG (WR15)
- 2.02 YPRR (WR23)
- 28.5% First-Read Target Share (WR15)
- 0.113 1D/RR (WR13)
- 81.1% Catchable Target Rate (WR26)
- 13.5 FPG (WR17)
The majority of film watchers will tell you that McMillan was passing the eye test with flying colors and was deserving of more targets in the Panthers offense in 2025
- His route tree felt somewhat limited to me, and I would have liked HC Dave Canales to get him easier looks, especially in the red zone
My biggest issue when it comes to McMillan's breakout potential is Bryce Young limiting his ceiling, and the Panthers offensive scheme leaning run-heavy once again
- Young was one of the worst QBs at generating value for his receivers, ranking 28th in Passing YPG, 28th in Passer Rating (87.8), 34th in Deep Throw Percentage (8.4%), and 31st in Highly Accurate Throw Rate (52.4%)
- The Panthers ranked 29th in Pass Rate Over Expectation on the season at -4.0%
To me, the Panthers looked like they were playing it safe all season, trying to scrape by in close games, doing the bare minimum in order to win
- Evidently, it worked, because they made the playoffs with an 8-9 record, but I don't see this style of offense having much success going forward
McMillan being able to break out into the top-10 in 2026 will largely be dependent on the play of Young, and the offensive scheme evolving to be more pass-heavy
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Alec Pierce
Pierce is set to be a free agent this offseason and should be one of the most sought-after players at that position, but I think it's likely that he remains an Indianapolis Colt
- Pierced missed 2 games in 2025, and finished as the WR27 on 12.2 FPG
Metrics in games without Phillip Rivers at QB:
- 45.7% Air Yard Share (WR3)
- 6.1 Targets/G (WR32)
- 75.1 Receiving YPG (WR8)
- 2.52 YPRR (WR9)
- 21.5 Yards per Reception (WR2)
- 0.101 1D/RR (WR24)
- 13.0 FPG (WR18)
One area of concern is Pierce's inability to separate. He recorded an Average Separation Score of -0.061 (WR100) and a Route Win Rate of 14.9% (WR94) against Man Coverage (only 25.9% of his routes were against man coverage)
- 26 of Pierce's 84 targets were also contested, and he recorded the 12th-worst contested catch rate among all WRs (34.6%)
Still, as far as the eye test goes, Pierce was passing with flying colors, and most Colts fans will tell you that he has improved over the years and should retain a crucial role in this offense
- Among "deep threat" WRs (15.0+ aDOT), Pierce ranked 1st in Receiving Yards (1,003), 8th in Catch Rate (56.0%), 3rd in Target Share (17.4%), and 1st in Receiving TDs (6)
Daniel Jones truly was playing at a high level prior to tearing his ACL, and here is how he ranked in 2025:
- 100.2 Passer Rating (QB9)
- 7.30 ANY/A (QB6)
- 76.4% Adjusted Completion Rating (QB17)
- 69.4% Highly Accurate Throw Rate (QB15)
- 77.9% Catchable Throw Rate (QB7)
Pierce's full breakout in 2026 will depend on whether he can stay fully healthy, the Colts retain him, and if Daniel Jones is 100% ready to go at the start of the season
- If Michael Pittman goes elsewhere, that would only further boost Pierce's stock (108 vacated targets)
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Troy Franklin
Franklin had a mini breakout in 2025 (his sophomore season), finishing as the WR27 on 10.4 FPG. What serves as an indication that Franklin has some full breakout potential in 2026 was his stretch of performances in Weeks 7-11:
- 78.6% Route Share (WR34)
- 48.7% Air Yard Share (WR2)
- 8.8 Targets/G (WR8)
- 0.29 TPRR (WR7)
- 51.8 Receiving YPG (WR35)
- 1.72 YPRR (WR39)
- 30.2% First-Read Target Share (WR13)
- 63.6% Catchable Target Rate (WR104)
- 0.079 1D/RR (WR49)
- 15.1 FPG (WR10)
In this span, the Broncos were making a concerted effort to get Franklin involved, as he was seeing more volume than Courtland Sutton across the board
- The problem was that he wasn't very efficient with that volume, evident in his YPRR, as he served more as a deep-threat downfield (18.4 aDOT)
- He was separating against Man Coverage at an extremely high rate in this span, with an Average Separation Score of 0.313 & Route Win Rate of 31.3%, albeit on only 32 routes
So, that directs us to his bottom-5 Catchable Target Rate, which falls on Bo Nix more than anything else, so let's look at his Deep-Passing Metrics in 2025:
- 91.1 Passer Rating (QB20)
- 5.5% Completion Percentage Over Expectation (QB18)
- 41.7% Adjusted Completion Rating (QB22)
- 36.1% Highly Accurate Throw Rate (QB20)
- 50.0% Catchable Throw Rate (QB24)
There is an argument to be made that the Broncos realized that Nix wasn't playing at a high enough level on the deep balls, and Franklin, having an aDOT of 13.7 yards, was phased back out of the offense
Outside of those 5 weeks, Franklin was rather unimpressive:
- 63.3% Route Share (WR66)
- 4.8 Targets/G (WR55)
- 37.5 Receiving YPG (WR56)
- 1.48 YPRR (WR61)
- 15.7% First-Read Target Share (WR67)
- 0.066 1D/RR (WR62)
- 8.6 FPG (WR52)
Franklin's breaking out in 2026 feels largely dependent on Sean Payton forcing him the ball at a high rate, and Nix improving measurably on deep pass attempts downfield
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Parker Washington
Washington had an excellent second half of the year in 2025, and finished the season as the WR27 on 11.5 FPG, in his 3rd season in the NFL
- Washington was also the 14th-highest graded WR by PFF (83.0)
I wanted to look at those games specifically, in the second half of the season, after the Jaguars' Week 8 Bye
Metrics in Weeks 9-18
- 75.6% Route Share (WR39)
- 6.2 Targets/G (WR32)
- 71.1 Receiving YPG (WR12)
- 2.64 YPRR (WR6)
- 25.4% First-Read Target Share (WR29)
- 0.122 1D/RR (WR10)
- 83.9% Catchable Target Rate (WR16)
- 127.1 Passer Rating when Targeted (WR4)
- 14.2 FPG (WR14)
Even more impressive was Washington's stretch of games in the final 3 weeks of the regular season, when every Jaguars receiver was healthy (Brian Thomas, Jakobi Meyers, and Brenton Strange
Metrics in Weeks 16-18
- 79.5% Route Share (WR32)
- 9.3 Targets/G (WR6)
- 115.7 Receiving YPG (WR1)
- 3.58 YPRR (WR3)
- 32.9% First Read Target Share (WR11)
- 0.124 1D/RR (WR10)
- 21.7 FPG (WR2)
There are a couple of barriers or issues when it comes to banking on Washington fully breaking out in 2026. The first are his mediocre separation metrics:
- 0.032 Average Separation Score (WR67)
- 10.2% Route Win Rate (WR69)
The second is his target competition, and more specifically, Brian Thomas. BTJ had one of the most disappointing seasons out of any WR in 2025, but it was evident that he was not himself, playing through different injuries, and dealing with some mental health issues
- I expect BTJ to bounce back in some way in 2026, likely soaking up more targets than he did in 2025, but Washington plays in a slightly different role, as more of a slot WR (51.4% slot rate), whereas BTJ is the perennial X receiver (75.5% out-wide rate)
One of the Jaguars' WRs will likely finish top-20, or even higher, in 2026, based on how successful Liam Coen was in his first season as HC, and how impressive Trevor Lawrence was in the final 6 games of the regular season
Lawrence's Metrics in Weeks 13-18
- 113.2 Passer Rating (QB2)
- 8.75 ANY/A (QB1)
- 7.5% Completion Percentage Over Expectation (QB2)
- 75.9% Adjusted Completion Percentage (QB20)
- 76.0% Catchable Throw Rate (QB15)
- 54.7% Highly Accurate Throw Rate (QB27)
- 7.8% Hero Throw Rate (QB2)
- 1.6% Turnover Worthy Throw Rate (QB4)
Lawrence still had a few accuracy issues, but he finally looked like he could live up to his first overall draft pick expectations
Alec Pierce will be white boy of the year if he starts winning earlier in routes.
But the question is… is it White Boy’s Day?
And the answer is… God forbid a white boy get a lil motion
Clarence Worley is so cool.
Nah nah it ain’t white boy day
Luther Burden can do whatever he wants from a production perspective in 2026 but he’ll forever be in my S-Tier for that championship week ball out
Olave will forever be known as “My Sweet Olave” for his courageous, nay, heroic, contribution to my return to dominance.
Olave put my team on his shoulders with his playoff run. Helped me win a championship. I will forever be grateful.
Man that dude really came through for me in the championship week.
A shame I went against Henry lol
Amen!
Crazy how you could easily say that 4 of the aforementioned breakouts were in large part due to injuries. Pickens, Wilson, Wandale, and Jameson(Laporta going down, although that one’s a bit more of a reach.)
They largely were due to injuries, which honestly makes trying to predict this stuff almost futile, but I enjoy it nonetheless!
100%! I know we say this every year, but the amount of injuries that happened this year to big name players was something else!
Meyers with Tlaw throwing to him
Is BTJ coming back too? Kind of worried it ends up being like a Chargers situation where the passing attack is good but you never can predict who will go off with all the mouths to feed.
Yeah good point.
If BTJ, Parker and Jakobi are all still there I will probably consider taking whoever falls in the draft, typically though I usually if I have 2 or 3’good WRs already I just keep going RB in the late rounds
BTJ will go highest, he will be a high risk high reward pick but I’m out after this year. Seems like Lawrence likes to throw to slot and TE more than deep balls
I feel like this one has the potential to be the ADP bust. Meaning we priced in the “breakout” based on the end of the season. We also don’t know Hunter will be used when he comes back next year
Hunter was a bust
My money is on Parker Washington
I’m wary of anyone in the Bears or Jaguars receiving rooms. There is just too much talent to bet on any one player (except the QB). I like an Olave situation better, where I know he’s going to get elite volume every game. I think Waddle will be in a similar situation next year, hopefully with an upgraded QB.
You bring up a good point, especially considering how WR2’s performed in 2025
I too would rather invest in a talented WR, who has less target competition, in an offense that is likely to lean more pass-heavy
It’s likely that those WRs, ones in a crowded receiving room, will need a fellow WR they’re competing with for targets to get injured
That’s how I am too. I like consistency and at least some predictability from my WR room.
They both also are heavily dependent on a QB who has proved to be inconsistent at best.
This is how I feel about the Packers too. I feel like they regularly play 5-6 WRs every game and spread it out
Yeah I drafted Romeo doubs in the 14th last year cause I like the talent but burden and Rome feel like they’re being drafted at ceiling
I think Odunze breaks out finally. Injuries held him back this year but he’s perfect for that system.
Can’t believe how the sentiment from the first half to second half of the season changed. There’s a clear mark where’s he injured and then production dropped off from there on. I’ve been scooping him up everywhere I can for a first while people pay more for Luther.
The issue is Luther is better and will take a chunk of those targets Rome was seeing.
Crazy talk!
What's crazy is how over drafted Rome was and under drafted Luther was.
Insane.
I think he has all the tools necessary as well, and it was a toss up when deciding whether to include him or Luther Burden in this write-up
I think that Emeka Egbuka and Rome Odunze will be two of the most divisive WR picks in 2026 drafts
M Wilson too imo
agreed.
I just don’t know if Rome is all THAT great of a talent to be honest. I’m a Bears fan and have been rooting for him since day 1, but no facet of his game is particularly standout. Just not sure he will live up to people’s hopes for him.
Been saying that for a while. I agree with both of us.
Yeah this is how I feel too. He’s solid but he hasn’t looked great to me either. He feel like more of a teams WR2
I think THIS is the new hot take.
I’m also a Bear fan and I think he’s clearly our best WR. He’s the biggest, tallest and fastest receiver, runs the best routes and is also the best blocker and he’s a team first guy. Yea Burden is more explosive but Rome is the real deal. He might not be a perennial pro bowler due to how strong the position is but I think he’ll prove to be more than valuable next year.
Regardless, this offense will definitely be able to support 2 WRs, a TE and RB
With Rome he clearly has talent and the Bears need him, but I’m skeptical of him becoming a star. Brandon Marshall is probably an unfair bar to set, but does he have what it takes to become an Alshon Jeffery kind of guy? In my opinion probably not. Doesn’t mean he is bad by any means I just kind of doubt he will live up to the expectations of fantasy football drafters who expect him to break out.
I think he’s comfortable better than Alshon, Alshon was a one trick pony who had about 2 great years of production and then fell off. If he’s only Alshon level, I’d be disappointed. I’m not saying this was my comp for him, but he was comped to Davante Adams and I can see it. Big frame, fast, good/great route runner. He just needs to be more consistent and needs the targets
Davante Adams is a hall of fame caliber player. I definitely won’t be expecting that, though it would be amazing.
not sure, it was hard to trust any of the Bears wideouts all season long, so many mouths to feed, they get their two TEs AND two RBs involved in the passing game
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For the Bears win/loss record next year, those are all valid points but for fantasy they’ll be good to go and expected to improve. Caleb going into year 3 and the whole team going into year 2 of the same offense, you’d expect improvement across the board. There will be multiple mouths fed in this offense.
The league hasn’t figured Ben Johnson out in 4 years, don’t think year 5 is going to be the year it crumbles
Assuming they ship away DJM, Two WRs and one TE really isn't too many mouths to feed, especially when the guy in question is the number one
Overrated narrative. Effects three total games out of seventeen
Whether or not the team wins close games doesn't matter for fantasy production
Ben Johnson didn't sneak up on anyone in year one either, he's had an established rep as an offensive genius for years
The most valid concern you listed. The hope would just be that another offseason with Ben helps him get more consistent.
But there's also the fact that we've seen him flash the WR1 upside from Weeks 1-4 this year
Luckily they also play the NFC South and the Jets next year.
I think the Bears ship or cut Moore this offseason. He was injured and unproductive. Kmet is basically a non factor at this point.
So you probably go into next season with Odunze, Burden, Zaccheaus and Loveland as the primary pass catchers, with a committee at RB.
DJM was the sole reason they won that one OT game
Jahdae Walker caught the ball to send it to OT and then of course CW18 had to throw the ball. But yes, that was an incredible catch. DJ is still the odd man out in Chicago but no team will want his contract
Yeah he will be but to say he was unproductive is just a downright lie. He had the most yards for a WR on the team and he was tied with Loveland and Odunze with 6 TDs
He played all 17 games and had by far the worst year of his career. For a guy making 27 million a year, he’s had 2 straight bad years.
He was hurt for part of those games, so credit to him, but he also wasn’t exactly getting open very well.
Rome couldn’t separate in college and he can’t separate in the NFL. His physical attributes is what helped him excel in college but it’s not as easy to rely on just that in the NFL. He’s extremely mid with lots of hair.
My red flag with him is he was very inefficient with his targets this year, even early in the year when he was fully healthy. People blame Caleb for that but even if you take out all the uncatchable throws it was rough.
I think he’s a solid player but he doesn’t look special, and I don’t know if he really is a 1. Especially with Loveland and Burden looking so good, I don’t think I’ll be taking Odunze next year unless his ADP ends up low. He ran hot with TDs early in the year but I didn’t see anything else to get me excited about him
I don't think you're watching any of the bears game with a critical eye here if you think Rome is just playing like an average WR. This feels so results based/box score based.
I watched almost every Bears game, definitely all the ones Odunze was active in.
I didn’t say he’s average. He is good. I just don’t see him as a 1 either. His hands are kinda meh and doesn’t get great separation. The offense looked worse when they were forcing the ball to him. I think Loveland and even Burden might be better or at least comparable pass catchers.
I didn't say you didn't watch the games, i said you're not doing it with a critical eye, or at least not an objective one. This feels like such a "what have you done for me lately" take, when he was separating well early in the season and his production and play only dropped when he started playing on a stress fracture after the bye.
Loveland and Burden look great too, but we need to take the full season into account, and with context. Rome's play falling off lines up right with the foot injury. It's just way too results oriented to ignore that he was playing on a stress fracture when you're comparing him to two players who weren't dealing with that.
Im referring to when he was healthy. I’ll agree it’s not really fair to take into account the games when he was hurt and I’m not even really taking those into account. He was still not playing great before that. The metrics back that even early in the year.
People are seeing his hot TD streak to start the year and assuming that means he was playing really well but it wasn’t really the case. Hes not really great at any one thing, his separation is suspect, and like I said his hands are not good
I really didn't see any metrics backing that up, and i thought he was getting open all over the field.
My takes have nothing to do with the TD streak, he was getting open consistently.
nice work, this was a fun read. I would be suprised if Pearsall didn't have more target competiton in 2026, they simply cant rely on him to be a full time starter until he proves his health. And I could totally see him having a single healthy monster season at some point...then immediately returning to injury bogged down bad years.
I don't trust the Troy Franklin outlook since I feel like outside of Sutton there is too much target rotation for Sean Payton offenses in general.
Cheers, glad to hear it!
Pearsall will probably be the player on this list I look to draft most, if he is healthy for all of training camp and preseason later in the year
I agree that Sutton likely remains the alpha WR On this team in 2026, but Franklin will be someone I keep an eye on
As someone who watched every snap of 49er football…Pearsall is good.
I’ll be in on the 49ers again next year. But it’s because of Purdy. I think he’s a fantasy football efficiency stud and he would’ve been in the MVP convo this year if not for the toe
Pearsall looks very good. But it's hard to ignore his injury history. And since there are always new players breaking out the 49ers wont wait for him to be healthy...they will move on. Look at Aiyuk, bro used to be seen as ascending...now he is worth nada
Yeah I like Pearsall as a talent… but I think there’s a very good chance we’ve already seen his best chance at being the Niners defacto WR1 (start of this year)
He’s been way less involved since their weapons got healthy and he can’t stay on the field. Plus I think there’s still a chance they add another WR this offseason
Parker Washington anybody?
Elic Ayomanor. He should be the alpha next season unless they bring in a star or draft in the first round. Gotta hope the new coach likes him as much as I do
I think it’s Dike.
It’s neither. Let’s be real, those guys didn’t look all that talented (by that I mean, they looked solid but let’s not delude ourselves into thinking they look like true wr1’s) They’re going to draft a wr1 or pick one up in FA
For their price point, definitely worth a dart though
I dont see wr1, but i see a solid wr2/3 for many seasons, hes talented but its also the titans
Great write up. Think a lot of people will stay away on Pearsall due to injury concerns. Outside of the first few weeks back last year, the tape is really really good when he’s been healthy. Clearly the most talented receiver in that room at the minute.
Put me in the Pat Bryant>Franklin camp. There was a little stretch there post-bye where it was looking like Bryant might overtake Franklin as the 2. That was shaping up to be very interesting down the stretch before Bryant got a bit banged up. Will be interesting to see how it looks in the playoffs—might not be as sneaky if they make a run with everyone watching.
Cheers! I do remember that stretch of play for Bryant vs. Franklin, and it’s probably something I’ll take a deeper look at this offseason
I remember seeing posts about that on X, and that it may have been due to Bryant’s abilities as a blocker being much better than Franklin’s
If you pair that with the Broncos realizing Nix couldn’t throw the deep ball worth a damn, it makes sense why Franklin faded out at the end of the season
That's basically my 2025 WR room and the guys I'll be targeting in the mid rounds since I am undoubtedly going RB/RB in 1/2
Nice write-up. Thank you much
Matthew Golden
He showed last night he can be a WR1
One of Burden or Odunze will be a top 10 WR next season. Alternatively, BOTH will be top 20 and Caleb will be a top 5 QB.
Odunze went off to start the season. I think he was playing through injury the rest of the season before getting shut down. My money would be on Rome being the WR1 for the Bears next year.
That being said, I think Burden fits into Johnsons philosophy more. I think it'll ultimately come down to Caleb and who he trusts more. He was always looking for Rome early season and they've clear chemistry
I'd put my money on Rome being the guy to own in Chicago. But I think Burden will be a solid WR2/Flex option with WR1 upside if Rome is injured.
Nah, Rome is extremely overrated. No separation. The guys you want in this offense are Loveland and Burden.
If i had to choose between pat bryant or franklin i would want bryant
Yeah the offense didnt look good when they were forcing the ball to Troy.
Disagree, jamo mainly broke out because laporta got hurt. That needs mention. Campbell wasn't the main factor, imo
Burden definitely strikes me as the kind of guy who is a good player, but will get way overhyped in the offseason and end up with way too high of an ADP
The Bears are going to be run heavy and there’s a lot of mouths to feed in that offense between Odunze, Loveland, Moore, and Burden
I do think that he’s going to over hyped, and this ADP is inside the top-20, I’ll be a little wary to draft him at that cost
I’ve seen the Dynasty community salivate over his YPRR metrics alone in the last couple weeks, talking about his surpassing of Odunze all but a guarantee based off a relatively small sample size
I still love the talent and his skill set, but it all depends on his price tag
Or he’s a guy who will be over hyped and then live up to the hype. As is such tables that turn. Hopefully Moore leaves this offseason. Burden was the best wr on the field this year.
Yeah I’m a big fan of Burden’s game but I’m very curious to see where his ADP ends up. Im happy to take a him as a WR3-4 type but I think he might rise above that.
Juaun Jennings?
He’s in the final year of his two-year contract with the 49ers, so it depends on if he’s re-signed this offseason
Incredible breakdown. The YPRR metrics on Pearsall during his healthy weeks are actually insane—if Aiyuk leaves, he’s easily the biggest smash play of 2026. Also, love the shoutout to Parker Washington; people are sleeping on how much Liam Coen’s scheme loves the slot receiver. Definitely saving this for draft season. 📉📈
Cheers! I truly am excited to see if Pearsall can stay healthy for an entire season. If he can, and under the assumption Aiyuk is 100% gone, and with Juan Jennings a free agent, the upside should be phenomenal
Exactly! The moment Aiyuk news drops, Pearsall's ADP is going to shoot to the moon. 🚀 I'm trying to get shares of him now while he's still a 'sleeper'. High risk, massive reward. 📉📈
where is michael wilson getting drafted next year
He’s going to be a fun one to evaluate this offseason, and it’s probably too soon to say until we know who the new HC of the Cardinals will be, along with the starting QB
I agree. It was awesome picking him off the waiver though, lol.
Hear me out: and I know, it sounds crazy. I had him too. I was so disappointed in the rest of his season. But...
Emeka Egbuka
I get it. High risk, but that's why you have a chance to get him late (redraft) and the reward could be just as high. I think a lot factored in to his fall off. Evans coming back and needing to be fed. Godwin return. The early hamstring injury affecting his separation. Rookie yips got to him. Lots of mouths to feed. Realizing what they had in Tez as well. Baker completely falling apart, missing him wide open (where have we seen that before), and playing like trash. Barring all of these things repeating, I think theres a chance he gets back on his game. Evans and Godwin aging. Will Shepard be there? Tez is good but not that promising. Baker needs to heal up. I think theres potential in year 2.
I don’t disagree at all, considering we’ve already seen Egbuka perform at a high level
The hype was out of this world after the first month of play, and very few people were calling for a reality check based on the likelihood he experience TD regression
I think there were a myriad of factors as to why he fell off the rest of the year, and you outlined most of them. I think the biggest were Baker Mayfield playing horribly, the OL struggling, and the target competition increasing
I don’t worry about Tez much at all, he’s a gimmick play merchant. I’m more worried about the Buccaneers keeping Todd Bowles, and who they’ll hire at OC
We also saw Egbuka’s route share drop drastically in the finally weeks of the season, when Jalen Macmillan returned
So, if we see a healthy McMillan, alongside Evans and Godwin returning, I’ll probably be out on Egbuka in 2026
Ah I totally forgot about McMillan. Good point. That is just too many receivers, plus Otton getting involved a lot. Well with all that factored in I think you're right. Maybe I'm just hanging on to those beautiful first 5 weeks. He could maybe be a very late stash just see, but yeah I could see it being an avoid now.
Just solidifies my tendencies to draft 2 WRs in the first 3 rounds...and probably going WR-WR near the turn. Once you get away from those true alphas, it's damn near impossible to find predictable WR production from the mid-round guys.
Not that it's fun chasing middling RB work, but it's easier to find production via injuries and split backfields. Any WR past the 4th round felt like just a dart throw on a week to week basis, and an injury to a teammate doesn't necessarily mean your guy gets a boost in targets.
Would add in for Jameson Williams that Sam La Porta missing the last 1/3 of the season was important for his floor
Instead of Franklin I think it should be Pat Bryant. Take a flier on him late next year. He's been growing into Nix's favorite target, I see WR1 in his future
Instead of Parker Washington, I would consider Travis Hunter.
His one game before his season ending injury in practice was almost enough for me to include him
However, with the Jaguars adding Jakobi Meyers, the emergence of Parker Washington, and the likelihood Brian Thomas bounces back in some way, people have already postulated that Hunter may be utilized more of the defensive side of the ball in 2026
Something to monitor this offseason for sure
Christian Watson is not breaking out next year
Packers didn't give him that bag of cash (before he returned from the ACL, mind you) for no reason. The injury history is alarming, but when healthy, the numbers are stout
More likely breaking an ankle
I will have the choice of keeping Luther Burden RD6 or Rome Odunze RD7 (10tm PPR SF) next year. Could also keep neither, but in a vacuum just weighing that choice will be interesting.
Ricky Pearsall to me could have a 2025 Chris Olave type season - from draft jitters due to injury, to performance when all is said and done.
I still lean toward Odunze, just based off the volume we can more confidently expect for him in 2026
If DJ Moore were to leave however, I may lean toward Burden, because of the expectation he is immediately thrust into a larger role
Wan’Dale Robinson is the new DJ Moore: Yards but very few TDs.
Pearsall is a great one, I thought everyone realized how good he was when healthy until I made a comment about him on this sub. People think he sucks just because of his production but if he could just stay healthy he’d be WR1 in a Shanahan offense.
Yeah, you can definitely tell the massive difference in his production immediately after he returns from injury vs. a few weeks after
I think he’s shown enough flashes of talent to instill confidence if he enters the 2026 fully healthy
I'd be interested to see the top 20 RB color scale heat map of data from the past 13 years as well, as my intuition tells me 2025 was a similar story for RBs. It really felt like if you didn't have a top 6 guy, you almost didn't have a startable RB.
The fact that Jeanty finished RB12 or so says everything. It felt awful having him this year. 80% of his games were busts (9 or fewer points), 12% average, 8% booms.
If the league offensive meta is trending toward the run, then a takeaway from this post would absolutely be to favor RBs a little bit more and WRs a little bit less. But if RBs are struggling at the same rate, then it wouldn't really affect strategies too much.
If you check out @RyanJ_Heath on X, he actually posted a heat map for RB finishes since 2012 as well
2025 was a slightly above average year for RB production, and like you said, top-heavy with the RB1-5
Nothing will compared to 2024 or 2018
Gotcha. I don't have Twitter, so I guess that option's out for me.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G-AKoycWkAATioZ.png?name=orig
Great job with all the stats OP, must have taken a while to put together
The mid-tier WR devaluation meant a lot. I went way more RB and TE focused this year in drafts and waiver wire than I usually do. Having Fannin all year was better than most WRs and he was undrafted. Best waiver wire pickup I’ve made in a long time.
If Keenan Allen retires, or the Bolts inexplicably decide to not bring him back (could be that Slayer doesn't want to sign a team friendly deal to chase a Super Bowl ring), I will take good hard look at Tre Harris. He looked very good down the stretch, runs nice routes, strong hands, made some tough catches over the middle.
Too many mouths to feed in a run first offense
There’s way to many variables that are unresolved at this point. A fourth of the league is replacing their HC. Some will see other significant changes to QBs or OCs etc.
Had 4 of the breakout receivers this year and puka, don’t think I’ll ever get that lucky again lol.
Pearsall is a fav of mine if Jennings does leave in the off-season. Ricky's just gotta stay healthy. Purdy is the real deal and it only takes an injury to CMC and/or Kittle and Pearsall can get a huge volume bump
Kyle Williams.
I’m hoping ebuka rebounds. Even though the first half of the season he was targeted because of injuries it wasn’t until he was injured himself that he fell from grace
I think mayfield lost faith in him not able to break from coverages along with the fact I truly believe baker himself was injured at the tail end of the season with the wild passes
As a Drake London Owner in Dynasty, I am definitely looking forward to your post there. I liked some of what I saw from him but the errant duds were strange to watch.
How do you mention Parker Washington without once mentioning Travis Hunter returning?
Michael Wilson szn has just begun
Don’t sleep on Jalen Coker outperforming his ADP in 2026.
Most of these people are on my dynasty team so I agree with all of it. Great work.