This megathread is meant for discussion of the current Russo-Ukrainian War, also known as the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Please read our current rules, but also the extended rules below.

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META

Link to the previous Megathread LIX (59)

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Fleeing Ukraine We have set up a wiki page with the available information about the border situation for Ukraine here. There's also information at Visit Ukraine.Today - The site has turned into a hub for "every Ukrainian and foreign citizen [to] be able to get the necessary information on how to act in a critical situation, where to go, bomb shelter addresses, how to leave the country or evacuate from a dangerous region, etc."

Other links of interest

Please obey the request of the Ukrainian government to refrain from sharing info about Ukrainian troop movements

  • Today's Key Takeaways

    The Kremlin is setting information conditions to reject any meaningful security guarantees for Ukraine by threatening Europe.

    The Kremlin preemptively rejected the legitimacy of any future Ukrainian government that it does not directly control in response to Zelensky’s recent statements that he is ready to hold elections before the end of Russia’s war in Ukraine.

    The Kremlin once again rejected the Ukrainian-proposed ceasefire on energy infrastructure strikes and signaled Russia’s commitment to destroying the Ukrainian power grid in the winter months. https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-10-2025/

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    12-16 hours without electricity is already a reality in Ukraine at this stage.

    While the headlines talk about "negotiations," the reality shows that there are no new US sanctions against Russia, no real progress in the negotiations (because it is Russia that must want peace), and continued Russian violence against the civilian population

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    I hate the focus on the US, there are plenty of nations in Europe, in the EU, that have less sanctions on Russia than the United States does even under Donald Trump.

    We (as in the EU) gave more cash to Russia last year in energy payments than we did in military aid to Ukraine.

    No one is pushing for huge military buildup. No one is pushing for tens or hundreds of billions in military aid to Ukraine. From my viewpoint, we are abandoning Ukraine and lifting up the United States as a convenient scapegoat for why Ukraine is slowly losing.

    Donald Trump was elected well over a year ago. We haven't even got the worst case scenario out of him and yet there has been no progress.

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    yes, real peace is impossible, I've said it right after the start of the war

    it's essentially Trump who wants a deal with his "best friend" Putin

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  • Bad news for Russia:

    https://www.ft.com/content/37a7bc5c-3d16-4f00-be12-9e039b9bfea1

    The oil market faces a “super glut” next year as a burst of new supply collides with weakness in the global economy, one of the world’s biggest commodity traders has warned.

    Saad Rahim, chief economist of Trafigura, said on Tuesday that new drilling projects and slowing demand growth were likely to weigh further on already depressed crude prices next year.

    “Whether it’s a glut, or a super glut, it’s hard to get away from that,” Rahim said in remarks alongside the company’s annual results.

    Brent crude has fallen 16 per cent this year, on track for its worst year since 2020. Prices are expected to be further damped by major projects coming online next year, including in Brazil and Guyana.

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  • The mysterious rus*ian soul. After Ukraine, now in Mali

    As Russia’s Africa Corps fights in Mali, witnesses describe atrocities from beheadings to rapes

    “It’s a scorched-earth policy,” said a Malian village chief who fled. “The soldiers speak to no one. Anyone they see, they shoot. No questions, no warning. People don’t even know why they are being killed.”
    Malian authorities have never publicly acknowledged the presence of Wagner or Africa Corps. But Russian state media in recent weeks have published reports from Mali, praising Africa Corps for defending the country from “terrorists"

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  • The Kremlin appears to be increasingly leaning on India to alleviate domestic labor shortages and is setting conditions for India to support drone production for Russia’s war effort. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov announced on December 5 that Russia may accept an “unlimited number” of migrant workers from India under the new bilateral labor mobility agreement signed on December 5 in New Delhi.[21] Manturov stated that Russian manufacturing industries have a labor shortage of 800,000 workers, and that Russian trade, construction, and service industries have a labor shortage of 1.5 million workers.

    Manturov stated that it will likely take Russia well over a year to set the conditions necessary to accept, employ, and process many Indian migrants. Kherson Oblast occupation head Vladimir Saldo stated on December 6 that regional occupation authorities discussed possible business cooperation with Indian partners at a recent international investment forum.[22] Saldo stated that occupation authorities are ready to attract Indian migrant workers to strengthen the region’s agricultural industry and to work with Indian partners to integrate occupied Kherson Oblast into international trade corridors.

    Head of the Russian state-owned defense conglomerate Rostec, Sergey Chemezov, stated on December 5 that Russia is in discussions with India to localize production of Russian drones, such as Lancet loitering munitions, in India.[23] Putin gave an interview on December 4 to English-language news magazine India Today, wherein he highlighted that Russia is not just selling military equipment to India but also sharing technology for shipbuilding and missile and aircraft manufacturing.[24] Putin stated that India uses Russian Su-57 fighter aircraft and produces Russian T-90 tanks and Russian-Indian BrahMos cruise missiles in India.

    Putin and Chemezov’s statements suggest that the Kremlin is considering expanding joint weapon production in India to drones that Russia would very likely use on the battlefield in Ukraine, possibly in exchange for Russian technological innovations and lessons learned in Ukraine. A Kremlin-affiliated milblogger notably reported on December 5 that a delegation of the Smolensk Oblast First Person View (FPV) Drone Piloting Center arrived in India to complete objectives within the framework of the Russian-Indian strategic partnership.[25]

    The milblogger added that the center has already started training the first international FPV drone piloting group in Russia in cooperation with Smolensk Oblast Medical University and arrived in Goa, India to discuss training for Indian drone operations with the Indian Sport Ministry.[26] https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-6-2025/

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    Aligning with Russia is such a bad idea, it can backfire spectacularly. So far India has managed to walk a fine line not aligning themselves with a great power, but this might be their undoing. Currently they're exporting 80 bln to US and 4 bln to Russia. Not to mention there are 3 million indians in the US.

    India doesn't really have anything that Russia really needs, once they get over the war, they won't have much use for India. What is Modi thinking?

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    Russia has a labor shortage. India has labor?

    Sounds like India would get ship building technology out of the deal, too.

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    1mil jobs is tiny for India...especially in low paying jobs. Shipbuilding at a mediocre level is ok, but Russia is not mind blowing there. Russia is goos at nuclear icebreakers, that's about it.

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    They make good subs, too. I doubt India will have much interest in ice breakers, but as the saying goes, "There are two types of ships of the sea; there are subs, and there are targets."

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  • lol

    UEFA fines Ukrainian Association of Football over anti-russia banner

    Details: The UAF was fined a total of €34,000 for European and World Cup qualifying matches against Bosnia and Herzegovina and Iceland. A banner displayed by fans reading "russia is a terrorist state" led to a €15,000 fine. UEFA described such messages as provocative, political and unacceptable in football, stating that the sport has no place for such remarks.

    The UAF was also fined for the use of pyrotechnics (€9,000) and for fans running onto the pitch (€10,000).

    (LMAO)

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    Therefore, messages must be chosen carefully.

    They should influence those who are far removed from the topic of Russia's war. Monetary fines are irrelevant here.

    For someone from Asia, "Russia is a terrorist country" will not evoke any emotions. But something like "Russia, stop your military aggression" may stick in their memory (and show who the aggressor is)

    I always urge people to reject dehumanisation and slogans.

    It is better to simply spread the facts. Most Russians (not all) support the war, Russia steals children, systematically rapes and tortures, finances information campaigns and radicals, must answer for unprovoked wars, and so on

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    And what does that prove or give outside Europe? What does that give a person from Argentina? Information about child theft gives a lot. The slogan ‘Russia is bad’ gives you and the reader nothing.

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    They've been fined for saying the same of the European Parliament lol.

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    The action itself doesn't give anything

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    What shouldn't or should give? They wrote what has been stated by the European Parliament, without any "dehumanisation", word that is very trendy and dandy,

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  • Trump Says Openly That the US Wants to Dominate Europe and Make it MAGA https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/the-new-us-national-security-strategy

    You add this all up, this is a US, openly-stated plan to dominate Europe through the expansion of power of populist-right wing (and pro-Putin, it must always be remembered) parties. It means European unity will weaken, the EU will be downgraded, NATO will be de-fanged, much of Europe will be made reliant on buying US weapons. and the continent will have to take economic dictation from the USA. At the same time Russia’s needs and interests will now be high on the agenda.

    Indeed, you know who is not “unhealthy”? That would be non-democratic states such as Russia. The document reads like a brief in favor of the Russian position, calling for European states to get back to work with Russia and offering up the USA as the vehicle to do this.

    What is clear is that the US under Trump no longer views Russia as a threat and is no longer even going to pretend that it does. That phrase is never uttered and there are no military plans put in place to deter Russia. At least that part of the long con, which started after Vance’s disastrous speech and the oval office ambush of Zelensky backfired, is over.

    This is a strategy to destroy the present Europe, to make it MAGA. No one can say that they have not been warned.

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    and offering up the USA as the vehicle to do this

    I don't think I've ever seen anything quite as pathetic as that

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  • https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-03/italy-slams-brakes-on-nato-program-to-buy-us-weapons-for-ukraine

    Italy’s foreign minister said it would be “premature” for his country to participate in a NATO program to buy US weapons for Ukraine in light of ongoing peace negotiations.

    “If we reach an agreement and fighting ceases, weapons won’t be needed anymore,” Antonio Tajani, who’s also a deputy prime minister, told reporters in Brussels on Wednesday. “Other things such as security guarantees will be needed.”

    The remarks are the clearest sign yet that Giorgia Meloni’s government has changed its strategy on Ukraine after running out of funds and weathering tensions within the ruling coalition. While the government insists that it will continue to support Kyiv, it is also the first in Europe to explicitly suggest that Ukraine should not be provided with additional weapons while a ceasefire is being negotiated.

    After some hesitation, Rome signaled readiness in October to join NATO’s so-called PURL program, Bloomberg News reported at the time. The program, which was launched after Washington reduced weapons shipments to Ukraine over the summer, enables allies to buy US weapons for Ukraine.

    Recent negotiations over peace in Ukraine have so far failed to accomplish anything meaningful. Tajani’s remarks stand in contrast to those of Europe’s main defense lobby, the Aerospace, Security and Defense Industries Association of Europe, which on Tuesday warned that the continent should continue ramping up its defense production despite the prospect of a ceasefire in Ukraine.

    Ukraine has also said it will need an extra €1 billion ($1.2 billion) in PURL shipments in order to defend itself over the winter. About two-thirds of NATO’s allies are taking part in the program, the alliance’s Secretary-General Mark Rutte has said.

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  • Putin's strategy is very simple: let's make a deal with Trump, forget Ukraine and Europe.

    https://www.ft.com/content/c75d976f-e22a-4c95-9a14-fc6677511b15

    Putin accused European countries on Tuesday of undermining Washington’s efforts to end the war in Ukraine, as US envoy Steve Witkoff held talks with the Russian president in Moscow.

    Putin on Tuesday said: “They [the Europeans] have no peace agenda. They are on the side of war. And even when they try to make supposed adjustments to Trump’s proposal, it is clear that these changes aim at one purpose: to block the entire peace process.”

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    They are on the side of war

    And Italy ended up agreeing to it

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-03/italy-slams-brakes-on-nato-program-to-buy-us-weapons-for-ukraine

    Italy’s foreign minister said it would be “premature” for his country to participate in a NATO program to buy US weapons for Ukraine in light of ongoing peace negotiations.

    “If we reach an agreement and fighting ceases, weapons won’t be needed anymore,” Antonio Tajani, who’s also a deputy prime minister, told reporters in Brussels on Wednesday. “Other things such as security guarantees will be needed.”

    The remarks are the clearest sign yet that Giorgia Meloni’s government has changed its strategy on Ukraine after running out of funds and weathering tensions within the ruling coalition. While the government insists that it will continue to support Kyiv, it is also the first in Europe to explicitly suggest that Ukraine should not be provided with additional weapons while a ceasefire is being negotiated.

    After some hesitation, Rome signaled readiness in October to join NATO’s so-called PURL program, Bloomberg News reported at the time. The program, which was launched after Washington reduced weapons shipments to Ukraine over the summer, enables allies to buy US weapons for Ukraine.

    Recent negotiations over peace in Ukraine have so far failed to accomplish anything meaningful. Tajani’s remarks stand in contrast to those of Europe’s main defense lobby, the Aerospace, Security and Defense Industries Association of Europe, which on Tuesday warned that the continent should continue ramping up its defense production despite the prospect of a ceasefire in Ukraine.

    Ukraine has also said it will need an extra €1 billion ($1.2 billion) in PURL shipments in order to defend itself over the winter. About two-thirds of NATO’s allies are taking part in the program, the alliance’s Secretary-General Mark Rutte has said.

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  • Ukrainian ex-prisoners of war say they endured sadistic beatings and torture with electric shocks at the hands of a medic they called "Dr. Evil." In an award-winning investigation by RFE/RL's Ukrainian Service, the prison doctor was identified as Ilya Sorokin and now faces EU sanctions.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uOwRPSXh6oo

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    I am afraid that would require an unconditional surrender from Russia, which doesn't look realistic.

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    Agreed. How can a peace plan be agreed to with these terms? "Build your opponent a golden bridge to retreat across," is from Sun Tzu's ancient military treatise, The Art of War

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    It’s not a peace plan, these are terms of surrender. 

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    Terms of surrender will not happen. It is unrealistic currently which is the point we're making. Maybe Im misunderstanding your point?

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  • Russian troops beat and execute Ukrainian POW on Pokrovsk front

    Details: In November 2025, during an assault on positions near the village of Hnativka in Pokrovsk district, representatives of the Russian Federation surrounded and captured a serviceman of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. One of the Russians tied his hands, while another struck him several times on the head with a rifle butt. When the unarmed defender stopped responding, he was executed by gunfire

    "Putin's warTM"

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    cannot see it, maybe geoblocked

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  • Putin's evolving statements from 2008 to 2024 (with video proof):

    2008: "Crimea is not disputed territory of Ukraine, and the issues of Russian speakers are internal issues of Ukraine."

    2013: "Russia certainly doesn't plan to send troops into Ukraine."

    2014: "After the annexation of Crimea, Russia doesn't plan to further divide Ukraine."

    2019: "It's nonsense that Russia plans to attack anyone in future."

    2022: "Russia's Special Military Operation does not involve the occupation of Ukrainian territories," and "Russia has acquired new territories during the Special Military Operation."

    2023: "The conflict in Ukraine is not a territorial conflict—we have plenty of own territories."

    2024: "Anyone who wants Russia to give up CONQUERED TERRITORIES in Ukraine must understand that this is impossible."

    2024: "Could Russia attack Poland or Latvia? That's nonsense." Why do we need this?

    2024 "Russia has no plans to attack NATO..."

    How stupid do you have to be to not understand that negotiations and promises don't work with a lying and hypocritical dictator? All he and Russia understand is strength and the ability to deliver a real rebuff to Russia's imperialist dreams https://x.com/adnashmyash/status/1977146505900573089

    personal note: "The conflict in Ukraine is not a territorial conflict—we have plenty of own territories." is true btw

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    I would argue that Russia only attacks the weak and vulnerable. So we must arm ourselves with strength. Fortunately Ukraine was not weak, and I think we agree that Russia didn't see this with their 3-day invasion plan.

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  • Latest update, key points: Data on Russian forces’ rate of advance indicates that a Russian military victory in Ukraine is not inevitable, and a rapid Russian seizure of the rest of Donetsk Oblast is not imminent.

    Recent Russian advances elsewhere on the frontline have largely been opportunistic and exploited seasonal weather conditions.

    Ukrainian forces have proven effective at constraining Russian advances and conducting successful counteroffensives, particularly when well-staffed and well-equipped.

    Kremlin officials continue setting conditions to reject any peace deal that does not concede to all of Russia’s maximalist demands.

    The Kremlin is reportedly concerned that the United States will correctly interpret Russia as unwilling to meaningfully engage in negotiations and accept any peace deal that compromises its ability to achieve its maximalist claims.

    Recent Ukrainian counterattacks may further delay Russian forces’ seizure of Pokrovsk, though the situation in Pokrovsk remains serious and dynamic at this time.

    Russia continues setting conditions to deploy active reservists to combat against Ukraine.

    Russia’s long-range strike campaign is increasingly killing and injuring civilians.

    Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Hulyaipole. Russian forces recently advanced near Lyman. https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-26-2025/

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    "Data on Russian forces’ rate of advance" is not very significant as a measure. It does not matter so much where the armies are fighting, sine they are basically throwing stuff at each other waiting for the adversary to finish their ammunition. Rapid movement is practically impossible thanks to the drones

    what's more significant is the rate of attrition of both armies and a prediction of the possibility of collapse in the near future

    The prevailing consensus is that Russia will have few problems resisting in 2026, while Ukraine will probably collapse next year if it does not get massive aid now. After 2026 it becomes foggy since Russia might find itself in deep trouble too, depending on technological development and capabilities to stop drones.

    The Ukrainian defense in Pokrovsk-Mirnograd is admirable for the courage of the soldiers but it is also somewhat a consensus that it is a mistake overall since it is a case of encirclement so a lot of Ukrainians can be captured or killed, and this is probably bigger than the damage inflicted to the Russians. It makes sense if Ukraine wants to slow down the Russians at all costs but it is unsound to have this priority order.

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  • A Ukrainian attack on the aircraft manufacturer Beriev’s facility in Taganrog in southwestern Russia overnight appears to have knocked out a unique laser testbed aircraft, the A-60, and at least one more. While the most recent status of the A-60 program remains unclear, the attack once again underscores Ukraine’s ability to strike high-value Russian military aircraft on their airfields, a capability that has been bolstered through the addition of long-range cruise missiles, as well as an expanding inventory of attack drones, both large and small. https://www.twz.com/air/unique-russian-a-60-laser-tesbed-jet-destroyed-in-ukrainian-attack

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    Witkoff, like most of them in Trump's administration, has been on the FSB's payroll for years. What will they do when that money dries up I wonder?

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    Loan themselves to whoever pays them?

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  • Putin says authorities must galvanise russian identity in Ukraine

    The document, entitled "Strategy of russia's national policy in the period to 2036", appeared as a decree signed by the president. It calls for measures to ensure that 95 percent of the country's population identify as russian by 2036.
    It was vital, the document said, "to adopt additional measures to strengthen overall russian civic identity", entrench use of russian and act against "efforts by unfriendly foreign states to destabilise inter-ethnic and inter-confessional relations and create a split in society".

    It's like a cancer.

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    The word is genocide.

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  • Do the Ukrainians want to keep fighting? I keep hearing a bunch of noise about Trump and Putin but the most obvious answer is what the Ukrainians actually want.

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    In a word; Yes.
    You see, I worked in Ukraine during the war. And the Ukrainian people are dead set on NEVER becoming part of ruzzia, or part of Putin's demented attempt to restore the USSR. They know full well that this attempt of Putin's is part genocide, part wiping out of their entire culture. And they are VERY determined to stop that at all costs.

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    Never seen that amount of russian bot on that thread since the start of the war.

    And yes they do, they are polls all the time, go check them.

    "Do the Russians want to keep fighting? I keep hearing a bunch of noise about Trump and Putin but the most obvious answer is what the Ukrainians actually want."

    Funny you did not write that, well no funny, you're just working in Saint Petersburg and paid for that.

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    Elections were canceled so they don't get a choice.

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    The Ukrainian constitution expressly forbids elections in time of war. Something you vatniks conveniently omit.

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    Ukraine agreed to an unconditional ceasefire months ago. Europe supports it. Russia doesn't want it. China doesn't particularly want it either.

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  • Let's be very clear: the only language Putin understands is force, and the West has two main power vectors:

    1) destroying Russia's economy: Russia's economy is very small (much smaller than Italy's, for instance) and it's essentially based on commodities like oil, gas, metals, etc. Russia also has a massive manpower and inflation problem.

    Main problem for this vector: China supports Russia, which has become their vassal state, like N Korea

    2) let Ukraine destroy Russia's army (and its oil refineries) by giving them our best weapons, ammunition and intelligence: amazingly, Europe (forget the US) is still not doing this. We still have stupid discussions about the Taurus and other advanced weapons.

    Peace can only be achieved with maximum pressure on these two vectors. All the rest is an illusion. Yes, wars are slow and very costly, both in human lives and money, but there is no alternative.

    Note: when I say "the West" , it's essentially Europe because Trump doesn't care about Ukraine (or Europe), a fact which is very important for Putin.

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    We still have stupid discussions about the Taurus and other advanced weapons.

    By "we" you mean Germany.

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    All true. But the reality is its not worth it. Russia will never be a regional hegemon and the US is pivoting to Asia.

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    I think we should start by destroying drones in eu airspace

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    They're starting to do that. And developing more accurate systems to deal with these "accidental" incursions into EU airspace.

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    I agree

    So does this mean that peace in Ukraine cannot be achieved in the foreseeable future? No, it does not. The degradation of Russia’s energy and economic potential will sooner or later limit its ability to continue the war, and both Western sanctions and Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy facilities can play a role in this. But peace plans that humiliate Ukraine and reward Russia for its brutal and unprovoked aggression only encourage Putin to continue the war.

    https://vilni-media.com/en/2025/11/23/novyj-plan-myru-chy-staryj-plan-prynyzhennia/

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    It makes me wonder what the

    will sooner or later limit its ability to continue the war,

    medium / long term best possible outcome is for this particular approach?

    Give Ukraine just enough to carry on as they are for 5 years? 10 years? accept a slow, costly Russian advance and an ageing Ukrainian army, keep giving them weapons and make a judgement that in at most 10 years time Russia will want to stop (and Ukraine will want to keep going), ensuring the balance of power leads to actual peace discussions?

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    1) destroying Russia's economy: Russia's economy is very small (much smaller than Italy's, for instance) and it's essentially based on commodities like oil, gas, metals, etc.

    That's the problem, commodities are extremely hard to disrupt and allow a constant flow of cash unless you don't apply a Cuban-style embargo

    Militarily, they can kick the can still for a long time imho

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    That's the problem, commodities are extremely hard to disrupt

    yes but it's not impossible: India, for instance , doesn't buy Russian oil anymore

    we have to thank Trump for this result btw

    Militarily, they can kick the can still for a long time imho

    yes but if Ukraine manages to reconquer some land that would deal a big blow to Putin

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    The EU opposed Trump's sanctions on buyers of Russia's oil and their oil companies. Crazy.

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    The EU didn't oppose it but Orban (Hungary) and Fico (Slavakia) want to buy Russian energy.

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    Both Orban and Fico are on the FSB's payroll. Their actions make that abundantly clear.

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    I always like watching videos with a happy ending! Thank you!

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  • A lot of times, these peace proposals mention "ceasefire at the current line of contact"

    But where exactly would that be? Especially now that the front is so porous, there being large swaths of contested areas which contain both Russian and Ukrainian troops, and there being such a large disparity in claims of who controls what between the various maps.

    I feel like that's not being discussed enough.

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  • Is Vladimir Putin even willing to agree to any peace plan at all?

    And the answer — though inconvenient — is painfully obvious. No. Putin isn’t interested in peace.

    At best, he’s interested in peace talks — if they help him prolong the war or avoid further U.S. sanctions.

    Because let’s be honest: if someone truly wants peace, they agree to a ceasefire.

    Then they sit down to talk. Putin has refused a ceasefire.

    That refusal is not just a policy choice — it’s a signal. It tells us everything we need to know.

    Russia does not want peace.

    https://open.substack.com/pub/portnikov/p/trumps-peace-plan-is-a-trap-but-not

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    Russia definitely doesnt want peace 

    They know or think at least that they can win if they drag the conflict out long enough in a war of attrition

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    Yep, you don't have to be a genius to understand that Putin doesn't want peace: he wants total control of Ukraine, like he has in Belarus, nothing else. Putin's goal with these "peace plans" is essentially to divide the Ukraine/Europe/US alliance.

    And the fact that Trump adores Putin is Putin's trump card, of course.

    edit: China does not want peace in Ukraine either

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    It’s irrelevant if Trump adores Putin or no. We don’t know if he does, too.

    Trump is a narcissist who doesn’t care who gets what - he wants to be praised for ending the war and get the Nobel prize.

    Putin is a dictator who has to be seen as strong because otherwise his days are counted. Accepting some peace plan from the powerful Uncle Sam won’t fly. It makes him seem weak. What, he needs American help to win?

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    It’s irrelevant if Trump adores Putin or no. We don’t know if he does, too.

    well, the former PM of Australia explains it very clearly imo: https://www.youtube.com/shorts/wrvuTbVNPzs

    and I don't think it's irrelevant: for Trump, personal relationships are very important

    Putin can do anything, Trump will never say a bad word about him

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    and I don't think it's irrelevant: for Trump, personal relationships are very important

    Trump's tragedy.

    He thinks personal relationships are important, but he has a strictly transactional understanding of the world, so he will never have a real relationship with another human being.

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    He did, though. Told him how bad his military is for taking so long for so little territory. And sanctioned his oil companies.

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    Some unfortunate wording in this one. By itself, the fact that Ukrainian and other European leaders have been trying to get Trump to put pressure on Russia doesn't prove that they believe it's possible, merely that they deemed this course of action to be acceptable and somewhat better than the alternatives.

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  • Europe is always on the back foot. We're always 'racing to influence the deal', as Trump once again decides there should be peace at any cost. And we have these weird blue-sky 'what will Europe do to ensure security? after there is peace?' summits - but we never tackle the hard decision on what to do differently to force Russia to stop the war.

    We're on the 19th package of sanctions on Russia. It's not working. Nothing we've done so far is working. What does Europe want? Do we care?

    Just repeatedly telling the USA 'you're doing it wrong!' regardless of how truthful that is - nothing Europe has been doing is game changing. We just supply some more funding, tell Ukraine to keep going, and the war drags on. And more people die.

    Surely we can do better than this?

    This is the biggest test of 'What is Europe for?', 'What do we stand for? 'Where do we draw the line?' that we've faced in decades. And we're being sidelined and ignored.

    It feel like the 'free world' should just come clean and say 'yeah, we don't care as much as we'd like to'.

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    we tell Ukraine to keep going

    we don't give orders to Ukraine, it's a sovereign country

    We're on the 19th package of sanctions on Russia. It's not working

    What exactly do you know about the Russian economy ? The end of sanctions is the primary goal of all Russia "peace plans" btw

    Nothing we've done so far is working

    I've said it when the war started: peace is impossible, simply because Putin wants total control of Ukraine. As long as Putin thinks he can achieve this (and thousands of Russian morons are willing to die for Putin's money) the war will continue.

    But somehow, the real estate developer in the White House still thinks that giving some Ukrainian land to Putin will solve the problem. Steve Witkoff, Trump's envoy, is also a real estate developer btw

    Putin's calculus is also based on the fact that the "pussies in the West" don't have the patience and the stamina to support a long war of attrition, while the Kremlin can easily send thousands of idiots to the meat grinder. The fact that Trump constantly talks about a "rapid deal" reinforces Putin's calculus.

    Lenin wrote: “When it comes time to hang the capitalists, they will vie with each other for the rope contract.”

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    All EU countries are different, so imposing sanctions is becoming increasingly difficult. In addition, Hungary and Slovakia are playing their part by blackmailing the EU and seeking the lifting of sanctions against Russians such as Deripaska or Russian business circles.

    Sanctions have never been a solution that would instantly stop the Russian war.

    The EU is still doing a lot. After Trump came to power, Ukraine has survived solely thanks to the EU.

    Stopping aid to Ukraine does not mean stopping the war, but another level of suffering. Yes, quieter suffering under occupation is still suffering. The fact that you have not heard about the "isolation" concentration camp and the stories from there does not change anything compared to the open killings of civilians in Izyum.

    Stopping support means the elimination of the Ukrainian state and Russian occupation, not the end of the war. When Ukraine disappears, the Russian Federation's hybrid war against the EU will gain new strength.

    Let me say, "Yes, the democratic world doesn't care about the suffering that is happening somewhere far away." And then what? What did that get you?

    Society is rarely willing to sacrifice something for a better future. Politicians focus on voters. Autocratic leaders empower populists through propaganda.

    All these topics are bigger and more sensitive. What is the point of your message?

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    All these topics are bigger and more sensitive. What is the point of your message?

    I suppose I'm just tired of what looks like a pretence that our help will make a profound difference, when that doesn't look the case from all the news we read.

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    It probably doesnt help much but its better than nothing 

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  • The proposed security guarantee is allegedly modelled on NATO Article 5, but that doesn’t contain any of these qualifications for action, let alone all of them.

    This proposed security guarantee requires that an armed attack by Russia would have to be significant and deliberate and sustained to merit a response. In theory, Russia could drop a nuke on Kyiv and that wouldn’t meet the criteria because the attack wouldn’t be sustained.

    Plus, of course, any decision-maker acting in bad faith could find grounds to claim that one of these enormously vague criteria weren’t met (when they had been). Which brings us to who gets to decide what action will be taken taken.

    The proposed security guarantee is clear that only the US president decides what action would be taken in the event that it’s determined there’s been a Russian breach. Ukraine, NATO and “European partners” are consulted, but they aren’t given a decision-making role here.

    Either deliberately or because of incompetence, the security guarantee is worded in such a way that it would allow for the U.S. president to consult with Russia before deciding whether to take action against Russia. https://mickryan.substack.com/p/the-putin-trump-pact-is-afghanistan

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  • The president of the European Council: "The initial draft of the 28-point plan includes important elements that will be essential for a just and lasting peace. We believe therefore that the draft is a basis which will require additional work.

    We are ready to engage in order to ensure that a future peace is sustainable. We are clear on the principle that borders must not be changed by force.

    We are also concerned by the proposed limitations on Ukraine’s armed forces, which would leave Ukraine vulnerable to future attack.

    We reiterate that the implementation of elements relating to the European Union and relating to NATO would need the consent of EU and NATO members respectively.

    We take this opportunity to underline the strength of our continued support to Ukraine. We will continue to coordinate closely with Ukraine and the US over the coming days.

    Work continues. I have invited all 27 EU leaders for a special meeting on Ukraine in the margins of the EU-AU Summit in Luanda on Monday." https://x.com/eucopresident/status/1992247702420132138

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  • Leaked documents: Kremlin finances network of lawyers in Ukraine and websites "about crimes of the Kyiv regime" under the guise of legal aid

    The Pravfond’s money comes from the russian Foreign Ministry, according to leaked documents. 180 million rubles have been earmarked for 2025, and two million more for 2026. That’s about $2.2 million a year.

    The fund’s report on its work, which “Schemes” found in a leak, contains a section called “Ukrainian Direction.” It describes in detail the work that the “Pravfond” is doing on the territory of Ukraine. For example, the functioning of the “Legal Consultation Center” in Kyiv, whose lawyers were receiving citizens, and the center itself was preparing reports for the Russian authorities on “war crimes of the Armed Forces of Ukraine” and “violations of the rights of the Russian-speaking population.”
    Other reports also mention “legal support” websites. Often, the main topics on them are “traveling abroad” and “deferring mobilization.”

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  • There's something interesting going on in Ukrainian politics. After the Mindić scandal several opposition parties (Porošenko's, Tymošenko's and Rudik's) signed a memorandum demanding the creation of a national unity government. They are still in the minority, but they can try to split the voices of Zelenskyj's party.

    And now Zelenskyj has posted in his TG channel that he's going to Turkey to reactivate the peace talks. Reuters says Witkoff will be there as well.

    Theory A, sensible: he's trying to shift the spotlight away from the corruption scandal. Even if nothing happens in Turkey, he will still demonstrate that his current government is stable and effective.

    Theory B, tinfoil hat: the whole corruption scandal was given a green light to sabotage the peace talks and force Zelenskyj to form a national unity government that would agree to continue the war at least until the EU runs out of confiscated Russian money.

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    Russia's war has nothing to do with the NABU investigation.

    From my point of view, these are crazy theories.

    NABU was under attack from Zelensky, the EU stopped it, and the SBU is systematically attacking NABU.

    For a long time, there were rumours that the attacks on NABU were due to some investigation and tapes.

    Now NABU has gathered everything it needs and is doing PR for itself: "Thank you for saving us, here's a gift for you."

    Everything else that is happening is the exploitation of the situation for their own interests.

    The opposition has a high anti-rating and wants attention.

    But a unity government is needed to cement the president's legitimacy and maintain a balance of power. But Zelensky hates Poroshenko (although the real opposition is not only him, but everyone except the Opposition Platform — For Life party). Plus, Zelensky is a populist and incompetent; he likes to control everything and make decisions himself.

    The Russians are using the investigation for propaganda.

    The Americans can use it to exert pressure: "You are riddled with corruption, accept the conditions to temporarily stop the killings and Trump will receive the peace prize."

    The war will only end if Russia wants it to, not Ukraine. To achieve this, Ukraine must receive security guarantees (in exchange for something realistic). Anything else is a profanation of activity and a temporary ceasefire. The Ukrainian government does not choose whether to accept peace or not. Russia and security guarantors — yes.

    —-

    Incidentally, Zelensky does not have a majority anyway. Some 70-100 people are ready to resign their mandates. And he struggles to get them to gather 226 votes for important laws. He scares Russians from the Opposition Platform — For Life party, and they throw in their votes. "Divide Zelensky's party." Russians, not the whole planet works like the Russian Federation. Ukraine is not yet a full-fledged democracy and is a backward country, but these theories based on how the Russian Federation works are just ridiculous.

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    and the SBU is systematically attacking NABU

    Wasn't there a change in the wind a week or so ago, with the SBU refusing to harass the NABU?

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    No. The SBU is divided into two factions. There are those who do quality work and those who serve someone else. But that's beside the point. People from the SBU and NABU hate each other at this stage

    The SBU has not yet cleared Ruslan Magamedrasulov of suspicion, and he is still on trial (the case is ridiculous)

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    The visit has been planed time ago, so your theory A is invalid.

    You guys really do love conspiracy theories: may I ask why such deep interest? I am genuinely asking.

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    Because there's no politics in Russia, only conspiracy theories.

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    The World is not russia, you know. Even if dozens of millions of russians live in the West.

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    Yes, unfortunately, we often write "Russia" and "Russians" when we mean "Putin's Russia" and "pro-Putin Russians".
    We don't oppose all Russians, we oppose Putin's Russia.
    As a friend said, "I love Russians and that's why I hate Putin".

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    Are you so sure?

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    Well, medium sure. lol. #slavaukraini

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    Cool, because I still have to see putin in a trench murdering unarmed Ukrainian pows ;-)  Героям слава!

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    How dare they give money to whom they want to. I assume you are a Stalinist, since you d like to decide how other people's money is spent. I recommend moving to NK in that case.

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  • After Ukraine's missile strike on Novorossiysk, Russia is no long exporting a single drop of oil out through the Black Sea. This is costing the Russian economy close to $100 million dollars a day in lost export revenue. https://x.com/RealJakeBroe/status/1989833371451887662

    update: After two days of downtime caused by Ukrainian drone and missile strikes, oil loading has resumed at Novorossiysk port, according to RTRS. The port handles about 2.2 million barrels per day, roughly 2% of global supply. Two tankers are currently being loaded at the berths. https://x.com/NOELreports/status/1990068317080457262

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  • NATO member states now collectively produce more ammunition than Russia, according to NATO's Secretary General Mark Rutte.

    Until recently, Russia was producing more ammunition than all NATO Allies put together.

    But not anymore. Across the Alliance, we are now opening dozens of new production lines and expanding existing ones. We are making more than we have done in decades. We need to build on this progress in other areas, from high end air defence and low-cost drone interceptors.

    Source: Speech by NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte at the NATO-Industry Forum, 06-Nov.-2025

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    Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told her then that China could not afford a Russian defeat because the United States would then shift its full attention to Beijing.

    Ans here's the issue. If only the US could stop its obsession with China, this could all be over by now.

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    US could show China by making their help to Russia futile.

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    We don’t have our own domestic production (in the EU?)

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  • Finnish petrol station chain Teboil, owned by Russian Lukoil (targeted by sanctions), appears to be in trouble. Not only it's confirmed that they're not getting more fuel, it seems that payments directed to them are now being returned to payers as banks refuse to process payments.

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    That is not the right way to go imo. There are lots of finnish employees that will be out of a job soon if teboil have to close. And god knows our country is in trouble with that already.

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    Probably will go to fire sales. The real estate might be an issue, as many franchisees don't own their station so they can't easily switch to another chain. Probably will need to let fully independent stations to switch chains. And the transportation is done by subcontractors mostly.

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    ...and provided the U.S. authorities agree, Lukoil sold their stuff abroad to Gunvor, a company connected to Gennady Timchenko (but sold to his business partner, Swedish Torbjörn Törnqvist).

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  • The Gripen represents more than just a fighter jet — it’s a symbol of independence in defense technology. Saab has proven that advanced capabilities don’t have to come with trillion-dollar budgets. Its modular design allows rapid upgrades, making it future-proof in an era of drone warfare and AI-assisted targeting: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o8CXYBXiyMU

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    That video is really more about the F-35. The Gripen isn't the only European fighter jet that outperforms the F-35 on operating cost, operational availability and operational independence. In fact, don't all European fighter jets outperform the F-35 on those criteria?

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    F-35 is a really bad plane as cost-effectiveness, but Gripen is not stealth. People forgets F-35 is not a fighter jet, it is a stealth jet. It has the radar cross section of an insect. I don't think it is detectable unless you know already where it is.

    F-35 is something to have when you want to fly in the mouth of your opponent without many chances of being targeted.

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    The F-35 was designed to evade air defence systems as they were decades ago, and only when it's flying toward them, not from any other direction. In other words, the F-35 isn't completely undetectable, and we don't really know how useful it would actually be against Russia.

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  • Life, death and terror - this is 24 hours in Ukraine’s 'kill zone.'

    https://youtu.be/mnIukgG8fNs

    The front line has disappeared. Instead, there is a “kill zone” — a conditional strip ranging from 500 m to 6–7, or even 10 km wide, where Ukrainian and Russian trenches and shelters are mixed, which official reports loudly refer to as firing positions.

    The 20–30 km strip between Ukrainian main forces and the Russian forces is considered a conditional gray zone, which is visible to drones and is under fire from both sides. The few kilometers of this strip closest to the enemy are no longer a gray zone, but a “kill zone”, where people are constantly playing hide-and-seek with death. That is what our project is about. https://texty.org.ua/projects/116021/20-kilometers-of-the-gray-zone-the-front-line-has-become-blurred/

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  • "3 Years Ago It Was a Casting Agency. Now It Has $1 Billion in Drone Contracts."

    https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/26/world/europe/ukraine-fire-point-drones-flamingo.html

    Fire Point emerged from the same Ukrainian film and television industry where Mr. Zelensky, a former comedian, worked before his election as president in 2019. The film scouting company led by Fire Point’s owner was credited with location work for a 2016 romantic comedy starring Mr. Zelensky, “Eight Best Dates.” It has also worked on dozens of other productions unrelated to the president’s former film career.

    The company’s contracts this year make up about 10 percent of Ukraine’s defense procurement spending. The government taps opened even though Fire Point avoided a legally mandated price negotiation during contracting, according to a government audit.

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  • Russian equipment and dugouts are literally going underwater in the Shebekino area and along the Vovchansk axis after a dam burst in the Belgorod region. The occupiers are whining that they now have to swim to reach their positions. https://x.com/wartranslated/status/1983113527507505420

    It will be incredibly difficult to keep these positions resupplied, and as temperatures drop, living conditions for Russian troops will soon become unbearable.

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