(open.substack.com)
New York City is on pace to record one of its lowest annual homicide totals in modern history, with 2025 seeing a sharp drop in killings compared to previous years.
As of December 21, the NYPD has reported 297 homicides in the city since the start of the year. That number puts 2025 in line with previous low-homicide years such as 2017 and 2018, when killings also fell below 300 during Mayor Bill de Blasio's administration.
The decline marks a significant improvement from 2020, when the city experienced 462 homicides during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. While other large cities in the U.S. have seen similar downward trends, experts and officials highlight the NYPD’s focus on targeted policing strategies as a key factor behind the drop in violent crime.
Peter Moskos, a professor at John Jay College of Criminal Justice and former police officer, attributed the city's results to close coordination among agencies and an emphasis on repeat offenders and violent crime. “How many murderers are there? Or even potential murderers, people who might murder tomorrow?” Moskos said. “It’s probably less than 500 — it might be a lot less, even. If you do actually lock up a few of those people, you can have a pretty big impact on the murder rate.”
The drop represents about a 20% decrease from last year, when the NYPD recorded 377 homicides in 2024. The overall decline also reflects a broader national trend, as data from the FBI shows major crimes falling in the aftermath of the pandemic-related surges.
Beyond homicide statistics, the NYPD reported 652 shooting incidents and a total of 812 shooting victims through the first 11 months of 2025. According to department data, this marks the lowest number of shooting incidents recorded in that time frame.
Police Commissioner Jessica Tisch pointed to a particularly striking milestone reached this year. “Recently, New York City went 12 consecutive days without a homicide, the longest stretch ever recorded,” Tisch said at a recent swearing-in ceremony for new NYPD recruits.
An NYPD spokesperson highlighted several department initiatives as drivers of the downward trend. These include the deployment of thousands of additional officers to nighttime foot patrols in public housing areas, subway stations, and other strategic locations across city precincts.
The department also executed 61 gang-related takedowns in 2025, part of a broader strategy to remove violent groups from city streets.
Moskos emphasized the importance of concentrating resources on individuals most likely to commit serious offenses. “If you do actually lock up a few of those people, you can have a pretty big impact on the murder rate,” he said.
The figures for 2025 represent a dramatic improvement from the violence seen in decades past. At its peak in the early 1990s, New York City recorded more than 2,200 homicides in a single year, the highest annual total in its history. The 2025 numbers suggest that the city, while not without challenges, continues to build on long-term progress in reducing violent crime.