Interesting exercise. One thing I might change would be the point where the 'Potential Exits' lead to. According to the search manager, it is 'known' that he headed west on the minimum maintenance field road for approximately 1 mile before getting stuck while attempting to turn south on Lyon Lincoln County Road. Therefore, all of the 'Potential Exits' should lead to the point where he first got onto this road (blue dot) rather than where his car was found. Maybe it doesn't change much overall, but it could be useful detail in evaluating the options (IMO).
-blue dot is where he allegedly turned onto the minimum maintenance field road and headed west
-red line is the minimum maintenance field road with direction of travel
-yellow dot is approximately area the car was found
Yes, I had considered that. I ended up basing my map on this thread's map as well as some additional mapping in a linked comment (all admittedly outdated). I knew that there were split opinions, but in the case of "exit points/paths" I wouldn't say it matters as any of the exit points are just hypothetical. We'll never know how exactly he traveled, but I was hoping to hypothesize why it would have taken him so long to get to the access/maintenance road given it's relatively short distance from Canby. The car being on the other side does add one point that would be of interest: he must have walked quite briskly (and I've never gotten the impression he was) based on where he began his call with his parents and where it is hypothesized that he ended the call.
Anyways, I think the most interest point I was hoping to point out was the existence of wetlands where he was walking on the farm property. They are evident in some of the historic aerials and we even see culverts (or small waterways...whatever they may be) that are dry or full of water at varying times of the year. All near where the dogs allegedly lost his scent. I've never believed he died after saying "oh, shit"...I've always assumed something happened and he dropped his phone. So it made me wonder if he accidentally stepped or fell into low water (possibly injuring himself) and couldn't find his phone. What happens after would still be a mystery.
Interesting exercise. One thing I might change would be the point where the 'Potential Exits' lead to. According to the search manager, it is 'known' that he headed west on the minimum maintenance field road for approximately 1 mile before getting stuck while attempting to turn south on Lyon Lincoln County Road. Therefore, all of the 'Potential Exits' should lead to the point where he first got onto this road (blue dot) rather than where his car was found. Maybe it doesn't change much overall, but it could be useful detail in evaluating the options (IMO).
-blue dot is where he allegedly turned onto the minimum maintenance field road and headed west
-red line is the minimum maintenance field road with direction of travel
-yellow dot is approximately area the car was found
https://preview.redd.it/hm58pbock7df1.png?width=1672&format=png&auto=webp&s=9c6354ca85eda6b3d4e20e027b8ef453c9a8f0aa
Yes, I had considered that. I ended up basing my map on this thread's map as well as some additional mapping in a linked comment (all admittedly outdated). I knew that there were split opinions, but in the case of "exit points/paths" I wouldn't say it matters as any of the exit points are just hypothetical. We'll never know how exactly he traveled, but I was hoping to hypothesize why it would have taken him so long to get to the access/maintenance road given it's relatively short distance from Canby. The car being on the other side does add one point that would be of interest: he must have walked quite briskly (and I've never gotten the impression he was) based on where he began his call with his parents and where it is hypothesized that he ended the call.
Anyways, I think the most interest point I was hoping to point out was the existence of wetlands where he was walking on the farm property. They are evident in some of the historic aerials and we even see culverts (or small waterways...whatever they may be) that are dry or full of water at varying times of the year. All near where the dogs allegedly lost his scent. I've never believed he died after saying "oh, shit"...I've always assumed something happened and he dropped his phone. So it made me wonder if he accidentally stepped or fell into low water (possibly injuring himself) and couldn't find his phone. What happens after would still be a mystery.