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Cuz tht generation can’t commit to shit especially not a serious film but we’ll see. I feel like it’s just out of the gate hype and then yhhhh who cares
Yeah a lot of it has been viral stunts which aren't as costly. I'd say the breakeven is close to 80-100m. Still a far ways away but 27 is far above the 12m projections I was seeing before.
Maybe the break-even point for A24 (since they sell international rights and have the HBO Max pay-1 deal covering a lot of potential losses - we'll see how it does internationally).
It’s literally how it works. We don’t know the number, but foreign is pre-sold to international territories. The 2.5 rule isn’t terribly useful to calculate A24 films for a number of reasons.
It is tho. Many such cases from the past (the trades proclaimed the most recent Hunger Games movie a win for Lionsgate after the opening weekend bc the international sales already covered a part of the spend, for example)
Yes it literally is how it works. Fuck me, so many people commenting here have zero idea how the economics of Hollywood works. A24 sells off the rights to foreign territories which brings in money to offset the budget. If the film cost 60M and half of that was recouped in foreign sales, their exposure becomes 30M plus P+A. It’s math of the simplest variety.
Similar with Bugonia, which people kept claiming needed to make 100M to break even for their financiers, when Focus already paid them 45M for the rights which was more than the actual net spend on production.
Viral internet stunts are not costing 60M in marketing lmfao. Thats been 80% of the marketing. Also timothee himsef has paid for a lot of the marketing, not A24.
This is one of the movies the sub has decided budget doesn’t matter, just boxoffice for some reason. It’s also going to sweep awards. But someone wicked 2 is a bomb,
They deffinently didn't spare expenses for that marketing. Especially having Chalamet climbing the sphere in Las Vegas to promote it. 2.5x its 60-70 milion budget puts the breakeven at 150-175 milion worldwide. That's before even counting marketing which with standard marketing costs would put the breakeven at 225-262 milion
The Sphere climbing was sponsored by Cash App, so I don't think A24 spent anything on that.
Some of the viral videos Chalamet put in the money, the same for the merch.
A24 has never done standard marketing with maybe the exception of Civil War and they didn’t for this. Pop ups selling jackets like a streetwear drop is not something Disney does.
There has been a lot of users from gossip subs here, it is leaking, this is why every time there are many and many accounts posting troll/negative comments on every Marty Supreme post. The mods should absolutely do something, this isn't normal.
It was the same when OBAA wasn't doing well and people parroting right wing shit suddenly started flooding the threads for that. Certain movies bring certain types of toxic asshole from outside the sub
A24 is absolutely dropping fire they have great storylines the cast always plays the role beyond perfect movie of the year 2025 hope A24 takes over the game completely..Marty supreme the movie blew me away the story had me on the edge of my seat
A massive $70M, which is a lot to spend on ping pong moviemaking.
Thankfully, this movie is already way past the last $70M A24 Safdie Movie - that being October's "The Smashing Machine" - due to its already impressive box office. This Timothee kid clearly has been establishing a fanbase.
But still, it's got a long way to go before being theatrically profitable.
More or less, yeah. Those of us on the outside don't know the exact mechanics for certain, but it's generally agreed that roughly 2.5X the movie's budget is roughly the break-even point.
Regarding The Smashing Machine's budget, it's been reported to be as low as $50M. But either way, the movie didn't get anywhere near breaking even theatrically - let alone be an all-out actual hit.
It stars a 25 year old and the character is younger than that. If you define “grown ups” as “over 18” you’re correct. If you define this as Goodfellas, Casino or even F1 or Top Gun Maverick, this ain’t it.
Again I don’t know why the age of the character has anything to do with the subject matter, you’re being pedantic. It’s an adult sports drama that’s doing well. That’s all I’m saying.
It's a good film, but I don't think it's as impressive as most people are suggesting. It should end up finishing my Top 10 (out of ~30 films) of the year, but closer to 10th than it is to 5th place, let alone #1.
I definitely felt the 2.5hr runtime as it was longer than it needed to be. There were a few scenes that tried to engender crucial moments that felt overly affected.
The cast overall wasn't notable, except for Timothee, who was great. However, I don't think he's the clear front runner for Best Actor since I think Ethan Hawke and Jesse Plemenons are the standouts this year. And I personally still rank CMBYN as his personal best performance.
Could not agree more! Good performance for sure but has yet to really earn being in that upper crust of great actors. His future is bright and I’m sure he will continue to improve but CMBYN is by far his deepest and most vulnerable role and remains his best
My local theaters pretty much sold out on Thursday. Friday was about 70%. Yesterday about 50%. Today the presold tickets dropped to 20%. The matinee shows only have 2, 3, 2, 4, 6 audiences in 5 theaters. Will be interesting see how much leg it has.
I wouldn’t call 30M opening a great sign on a 70M movie where you have to make back 140M (and you also sold off the international rights). I think they just think it’s great because of how weak the box office has been recently but it’s not. If it has really good legs then it will be okay
Oh, okay. I'm thinking that's reasonable. Of course, After the Hunt was supposed to be a big deal and it shit the bed, but Timmy's fame might get it over the finish line.
Good point. I think in After the Hunt, a lot of that was paying Julia. though I think they shot it at Cambridge so maybe that cost, too. But it doesn't look like something that should have cost too much. Marty Supreme is a whole different story.
After the Hunt pissed me off so bad. Like almost as bad as the movie was bad. Noone should ever put the icon that is Julia Roberts in such whack films.
That's good news for the film. I guess I meant some Youtubers I follow, not the general critics, but that's good for the movie, absolutely. I look forward to seeing it.
It cost more than you think actually. And they must have spent a ton on marketing. But this is an over performance for the opening weekend. So, we will have to wait and see.
You're getting downvoted, but it's following a similar trajectory to A Complete Unknown, with a possibly larger budget. That movie fell off after its first two weeks, might not have even broken even. You're not wrong so far, people just don't like history getting in the way of the present.
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This movie has a grip on genz and millennial tik tok demo .. it will continue to have legs.
Turns out, the marketers knew what they were doing and reddit was wrong!
Idk feel like it’s gonna die after this opening actually
Why so?
Cuz tht generation can’t commit to shit especially not a serious film but we’ll see. I feel like it’s just out of the gate hype and then yhhhh who cares
That’s a dumb blanket statement lmfao
It's a good performance for a movie targeted to adults that isn't existing IP.
Way to go A24
$60M budget, probably double that for marketing, and Oscar campaigning. More like good luck
No way they’re spending 60m on marketing, though this has been a bigger spent than normal for them. But this is a great return.
Yeah a lot of it has been viral stunts which aren't as costly. I'd say the breakeven is close to 80-100m. Still a far ways away but 27 is far above the 12m projections I was seeing before.
They actually have a bit of a TV buy which is atypical for them but it’s still on the smaller side.
The thing is: if you told A24 before green lighting the movie it would open at this level and have Timmy in the awards mix, they’d have taken it.
With what logic would movie with 60 (70?) million budget have breakeven point at 80 million or anywhere close to that?
Maybe the break-even point for A24 (since they sell international rights and have the HBO Max pay-1 deal covering a lot of potential losses - we'll see how it does internationally).
2.5x 60-70 milion production budget puts the breakeven at 150-175 milion worldwide.
A24 sell the international rights. The Smashing Machine went for 35M so Marty's production budget would be like 30-35M if you deduct this number
Don't think that is how it works. Plus The Smashing Machine still didn't do well at the box office.
It’s literally how it works. We don’t know the number, but foreign is pre-sold to international territories. The 2.5 rule isn’t terribly useful to calculate A24 films for a number of reasons.
Not saying this movie will turn a profit though.
It is tho. Many such cases from the past (the trades proclaimed the most recent Hunger Games movie a win for Lionsgate after the opening weekend bc the international sales already covered a part of the spend, for example)
God you guys are so boring. And know nothing about the box office either lmao
Yes it literally is how it works. Fuck me, so many people commenting here have zero idea how the economics of Hollywood works. A24 sells off the rights to foreign territories which brings in money to offset the budget. If the film cost 60M and half of that was recouped in foreign sales, their exposure becomes 30M plus P+A. It’s math of the simplest variety.
Similar with Bugonia, which people kept claiming needed to make 100M to break even for their financiers, when Focus already paid them 45M for the rights which was more than the actual net spend on production.
Question, in that case, does A24 recoup any % of the box office overseas or its 100% whoever they sell the rights to?
Goalposts will be moved for boxoffice faves
Huh?
Oh my god how will A24 survive an acclaimed movie succeeding at the box office!!!
Viral internet stunts are not costing 60M in marketing lmfao. Thats been 80% of the marketing. Also timothee himsef has paid for a lot of the marketing, not A24.
This is one of the movies the sub has decided budget doesn’t matter, just boxoffice for some reason. It’s also going to sweep awards. But someone wicked 2 is a bomb,
Sub has the memory of a goldfish.
$70M budget. Good luck indeed.
This will make $95M WW.
Y'all already moving goalposts. First 40M, now 90M😭
I never said it would do 40M WW. I always expected Challengers numbers.
Seriously why do you have an agenda against this movie? Is it Chalamet? Is it an original movie doing good? I’m actually curious
Edit: ah you’re from one of the gossip subs. you’re just mad he’s dating someone hahahahaha.
'An agenda' and its just box office analysis in a box office sub.
You're a troll account. Ridiculous.
They deffinently didn't spare expenses for that marketing. Especially having Chalamet climbing the sphere in Las Vegas to promote it. 2.5x its 60-70 milion budget puts the breakeven at 150-175 milion worldwide. That's before even counting marketing which with standard marketing costs would put the breakeven at 225-262 milion
The Sphere climbing was sponsored by Cash App, so I don't think A24 spent anything on that. Some of the viral videos Chalamet put in the money, the same for the merch.
A24 has never done standard marketing with maybe the exception of Civil War and they didn’t for this. Pop ups selling jackets like a streetwear drop is not something Disney does.
You have zero idea what you're talking about lmao
Everyone here thinks the marketing was free
The 2.5x calculation takes in count the marketing expanses. Sorry but thinking that a 70M dollar movie needs between 225-262M to break even is stupid.
Ping pong movie going crazy
There has been a lot of users from gossip subs here, it is leaking, this is why every time there are many and many accounts posting troll/negative comments on every Marty Supreme post. The mods should absolutely do something, this isn't normal.
It's the same users pouncing on every thread, which I honestly find hilarious.
Yeah lmao. They don't even realize we can notice them
It's insane. I see the opposite happen in Avatar threads and both are very obviously artificial lol.
That's the entire internet in general though, lots of AI bots and trolls
It was the same when OBAA wasn't doing well and people parroting right wing shit suddenly started flooding the threads for that. Certain movies bring certain types of toxic asshole from outside the sub
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Finally watching this in 70mm tmrw 😭🙏🏼
it wasn't even shot in 70mm though
It was shot on film.
oh wow that's awesome. so few movies are that this actually shocks me. gonna go see it in 70mm asap, thanks!
A24 is absolutely dropping fire they have great storylines the cast always plays the role beyond perfect movie of the year 2025 hope A24 takes over the game completely..Marty supreme the movie blew me away the story had me on the edge of my seat
Let’s gooo. Movie was incredible. I hope it hits 30 million.
“My life is an opera, look at the Oscars, Look at the groupies, look at the movies”
Is it that good?
It's a strong performance for what type of movie it is. This could leg out or it could be frontloaded we don't yet know.
https://i.redd.it/ps3ob89uew9g1.gif
What's the budget for this?
A massive $70M, which is a lot to spend on ping pong moviemaking.
Thankfully, this movie is already way past the last $70M A24 Safdie Movie - that being October's "The Smashing Machine" - due to its already impressive box office. This Timothee kid clearly has been establishing a fanbase.
But still, it's got a long way to go before being theatrically profitable.
A long, looong way.
Damn! So it needs around 175m to breakeven?
Didn't Machine have a much smaller budget?
More or less, yeah. Those of us on the outside don't know the exact mechanics for certain, but it's generally agreed that roughly 2.5X the movie's budget is roughly the break-even point.
Regarding The Smashing Machine's budget, it's been reported to be as low as $50M. But either way, the movie didn't get anywhere near breaking even theatrically - let alone be an all-out actual hit.
Timmy Supreme
Big win for grown ups
It stars a 25 year old.
Hey man movies for grownups can star people of any age
It stars a 25 year old and the character is younger than that. If you define “grown ups” as “over 18” you’re correct. If you define this as Goodfellas, Casino or even F1 or Top Gun Maverick, this ain’t it.
Again I don’t know why the age of the character has anything to do with the subject matter, you’re being pedantic. It’s an adult sports drama that’s doing well. That’s all I’m saying.
Budget is 70 million. Add 20 some million for marketing on top.
this movie is getting a lot of hate online, i wonder if its russian bots paid for to try to sink oscar chances 🤪
Timothee has the biggest storm of traits to make the most annoying online people seethe; he's hot, popular with women, well-off, and Jewish.
It's a good film, but I don't think it's as impressive as most people are suggesting. It should end up finishing my Top 10 (out of ~30 films) of the year, but closer to 10th than it is to 5th place, let alone #1.
I definitely felt the 2.5hr runtime as it was longer than it needed to be. There were a few scenes that tried to engender crucial moments that felt overly affected.
The cast overall wasn't notable, except for Timothee, who was great. However, I don't think he's the clear front runner for Best Actor since I think Ethan Hawke and Jesse Plemenons are the standouts this year. And I personally still rank CMBYN as his personal best performance.
Top 10 critically or commercially cause it definitely isn't going to be the latter.
Could not agree more! Good performance for sure but has yet to really earn being in that upper crust of great actors. His future is bright and I’m sure he will continue to improve but CMBYN is by far his deepest and most vulnerable role and remains his best
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Caitlyn Jenner would never
Saturday alone is smashing machines opening weekend damn
The hierarchy for A24 movies DID change, it was just for a different lead actor. And a different Safdie
Timothee’s haters in all the snark pages aren’t going to like this
My local theaters pretty much sold out on Thursday. Friday was about 70%. Yesterday about 50%. Today the presold tickets dropped to 20%. The matinee shows only have 2, 3, 2, 4, 6 audiences in 5 theaters. Will be interesting see how much leg it has.
dude's a legit star
does this movie have shills going downvoting everyone and saying these are great numbers for a 70M budget movie or typical millennial redditors?
Demon slayer, an anime movie had a 70M 3 day opening. with a rumored budget of 15M. That's great. .
I wouldn’t call 30M opening a great sign on a 70M movie where you have to make back 140M (and you also sold off the international rights). I think they just think it’s great because of how weak the box office has been recently but it’s not. If it has really good legs then it will be okay
I’ve never seen a community hate movies more than r/boxoffice
This is great but the budget is so damn high I wonder if it’s gonna profit.
Why is every negative comment downvoted ?
So Marty Supremes the film we hate of the day? Did we move on from FNaF already? What a wonderful sub.
I'm really looking forward to watching it. February can't come soon enough (I live in France)
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It cost 60-70M
Oh, okay. I'm thinking that's reasonable. Of course, After the Hunt was supposed to be a big deal and it shit the bed, but Timmy's fame might get it over the finish line.
This costing so much at least makes more sense than After The Hunt aha. Period piece with the biggest current star as the lead
Good point. I think in After the Hunt, a lot of that was paying Julia. though I think they shot it at Cambridge so maybe that cost, too. But it doesn't look like something that should have cost too much. Marty Supreme is a whole different story.
After the Hunt pissed me off so bad. Like almost as bad as the movie was bad. Noone should ever put the icon that is Julia Roberts in such whack films.
I just watched it last night. I thought she was phenomenal
No one said she wasn't phenomenal. They said the movie was bad, which it was. She put herself there, though.
She was great. Too great for the film itself.
Her command of the screen has not withered at all.
It's 88 on MC, 83% audience score on RT and 60% recommended on PostTrak. I'd say this is good.
It’s got an 88 metacritic which makes it the 2nd highest rated English language movie of the year.
It’s fair to say that critics aren’t mixed.
That's good news for the film. I guess I meant some Youtubers I follow, not the general critics, but that's good for the movie, absolutely. I look forward to seeing it.
It cost more than you think actually. And they must have spent a ton on marketing. But this is an over performance for the opening weekend. So, we will have to wait and see.
Oh, okay. Oof, then perhaps they need good word of mouth so legs can get the film to hit the budget and marketing
I wonder how it will perform in Europe.
That's an interesting thought. I assume it will play at Cannes and other film festivals, or maybe already has. I don't now.
The majority like it
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can it reach $200M?
it's great, but I'm not sure it will hit that... my guestimate is that it'll top out at $110-120mil
Weren’t they saying $29-30M for the 4 day?
nope, 20m was the optimistic projection until two days ago
I swear I saw 12-14m last week
Yea I saw 12 mill and how it was going to bomb
I think that was a couple overly optimistic people on this sub but the projection from charlie has never been that high.
Here comes the crazy people with numbers out of their ass
Nobody was saying that
Quite a few people were but it wasn't the majority.
Nope, it was 20 just a few days ago.
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70 mil WW max
It’ll die after this weekend
The same people that love theaters so much, want to see films die so bad huh..
Because we hate the short windows and don’t want people waiting at home to be rewarded
Huh?
wtf are you talking about lol
I loved the movie but my prediction is that it’ll die last this weekend
Relax
You're getting downvoted, but it's following a similar trajectory to A Complete Unknown, with a possibly larger budget. That movie fell off after its first two weeks, might not have even broken even. You're not wrong so far, people just don't like history getting in the way of the present.
You sound drunk asf. It might make 100 mill domestic
Bet
And I disagree dude
You’re just flat out wrong man
Okay well I guess we will see lol
If I’m wrong I’m wrong bro it ain’t deep
Not with New Year’s Day on Thursday and basically another holiday weekend?
Just my predication
predication
Alright bro haha
It ain’t deep relax
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That's exactly what's gonna happen.
Like how it wasn't going to hit past $40m domestic?
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So probably 150M break even? So it should almost break even then with streaming payout it should
Yep pretty much, the shills are downvoting hard
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