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What a strange group of people this sub attracts. I’m a huge movie fan, but I also like numbers so I find it interesting to follow the box office. However, many of you do not seem interested in movies at all lmao
Usually the case with people who are a little too invested in the technical side of a hobby or type of media. They forget what it’s all about in the first place.
You see it with statistics nerds in sports, or people obsessed with sales in music, the discourse becomes insufferable.
As for myself, I find it nice to see a movie do well as it is great for the theater industry. This movie in particular is great to see succeed because it is an original film from a smaller studio which I would like to see more of. It’s easy to get lost in the numbers on a sub like this though and a couple of people try make theirselves Hollywood accountants.
Most bizarre sub I've ever visited. Only been here a few weeks. I just like films so thought I'd check it out but christ do people in here actually like films?
There's a lot of haters in general, but tbf there's also been an influx of people who aren't interested in the numbers either, which is odd for a box office sub. Came up a lot in One Battle After Another threads.
Following box office is really interesting imo, especially if you love movies/go to theaters a lot. It's certainly not the end all be all in terms of quality, of course.
I did not see that all in the OBAA threads. What I saw a lot of was people determined to call it a failure, and worse, to suggest no studio should ever greenlight a project like it. And it didn't matter how much others pointed out that there are all kinds of motivations to greenlight a movie like that, or that as an audience we should be grateful WB took the gamble either way. Those guys just stuck to their guns on the idea that if it didn't hit 2.5x, it was a colossal failure that proves nobody should ever invest big money in an original movie by an art house filmmaker.
People who pop in here are interested in the box office numbers, but not in some, frankly, idiotic and single-minded way like the real die hards who treat it all as nothing more than a sport for betting and probably haven't gone to the movies in years if ever.
What I saw a lot of was people determined to call it a failure, and worse, to suggest no studio should ever greenlight a project like it.....colossal failure that proves nobody should ever invest big money in an original movie by an art house filmmaker.
That is a straight up lie. This sub was non-stop glazing One Battle for months, and using all kind of mental gymnastics to prove how it was actually a huge success.
Anyone who said anything to the effect of "this proves Hollywood should never invest in an original movie again", would've been downvoted into the hundreds, because that's clearly an insanely bad take, regardless of One Battle's performance.
Lol this is all anecdotal and I'm admittedly not on this sub every day but I saw countless people ripping how big the budget was. Same with Killers of the Flower Moon a year or two ago. I'm sure there's good comments glazing it too, the sub is big enough to be diverse, but I'm gonna push back that it was a lie. I guess we all have had different experiences here.
I’m just a bit salty as I thought One Battle was good but not great, and the posts I happened to come across glazing it as the best movie in the past decade were grinding my gears. A lot of it was politically motivated as well, which irritates me, as I feel the movie should stand on its own merits, not based on how you vote.
But you’re right, I doubt he was lying, it depends which specific posts you happened to delve into.
I'm with you . It's so polarizing . I liked the movie and am happy people are watching , I can talk it's awesomeness and how many nominations it deserves in a ton of subs . This sub is box office , so I come here to see what projections are and total numbers are and how accurate they estimated ,and what production and marketing budgets are to see if it works business wise .
They're very different conversations and there's room for all of them in different places and it can also change depending on longevity etc but the numbers are still fascinating to see and to see how theatres and people react and predict what we think this will do for future movies.
Also people here are like shut up moron, you don't know what your asking or talking about , it's just not something to be so mean or personal about and either the screen emboldens people or I don't want to ever encounter these users in real life
If you want to focus just on box office, then that is fine. But once you start talking about production and marketing budget you are talking about profitiability, not box office.
The box office is the first and not tbe last revenue stream a film has. So if we are to talk about profitability we also need to consider streaming liscences, VOD, blu ray, the value it adds to a studios share price from being an asset they own. If we are to think about future profit then things like Oscar nominations and wins, imdb an letterboxd curves, critical response etc are relevant factors to that.
Now if you want to JUST talk box office, then production and marketing budget have no relevance here. If you want to talk about profitiability you need to consider all of the above.
there's also been an influx of people who aren't interested in the numbers either, which is odd for a box office sub
Yup, very much so.
Back between 2020 through to 2024, we saw a lot of it here.
Redditors with no interest in box office coming to the box office subreddit and seething at those who find the subject matter at hand to be an interesting part of the industry.
But it's got a lot worse in 2025.
Every single month, a new movie (be it a part of a franchise or a filmmaker's filmography) releases and people with 00:00% interest in discussing box office spam every single article, unfathomably angry at those of us who simply wish to discuss this one single part of the motion picture industry.
And when you ask them why they're here, most resort to a tantrum and refuse to give an actual answer.
I don't understand those folks. I go to the cinema most months and I follow this sub to get an idea of what's doing well and to root for movies I enjoy watching.
I can't imagine following the box office if I didn't have an avid interest in films.
This sub got reccomended for me as well and its truly very disappointing the way people talk here. I love films but like the og commenter said, I also like seeing BO numbers but people here are so "anti-art", its crazy. Everyone is always like there's only IP and blockbuster movies, there's no original movies left. Then, when an original movie comes out, they vehemently are against it. They try to downplay its success or have this weird attitude about "who asked for this?", "its too risky". Marty Supreme especially seems like this sub's new thing to hate on
The movie also only releases februari the 18th where I live.
It’s weid they didn’t rollout with a global release and we have to wait 2 months but it makes the numbers somewhat irrelevant until the film goed global
I know the focus on this sub is "box office" but I think people here also grossly underestimate how much money streaming/ VOD/ blu ray makes as well and aren't actualy taking into account that even a film that doesn't make its money back at the box office can still be successful.
It’s fine to zone in on box office as the focus of this sub
but people still use terms like “flop”
A term like “flop” suggests more than “this did not make money at the box office”
It suggests “this movie should not have been made”, when many films that don’t make its money back at the box office are financial successes. See: The Shawshank Redemption and Fight Club.
And if we’re not talking about profitability holistically there is no reason to discuss budget at all. There’s no reason to make a distinction between a film that made 200 million at the box office against a 300m budget or 200 million against a 20m budget. Because budget only has relevance to profitability and no relevance to box office.
They root against films like these because it runs counter to their belief that only IP-driven blockbusters can succeed. I feel like there's a bunch of users here who actually seem angry that prestige projects or loss leaders exist at all, as a concept
Unfortunately this is the way of the internet these days. I’ve been following box office numbers (and love movies) since the early 90s. Via limited reports on TV to magazines to purchasing weekly Variety back in the mid 90s.
In 1996 i went to university and had regular internet access so enjoyed the box office stats the Internet had in its infancy. This quickly led to finding others like myself on forums and bulletin boards (Mr Showbiz, Box Office Report, Box office Mojo and later World of KJ). This was the glory era and discourse was amazing. The killer was social media that pretty much killed off forums as we knew them (outside a few - Reddit being one). I still post on World of KJ which is still running but otherwise BO discussion is either here or on Facebook/X etc.
The lesson is - the floodgates have opened to all sorts who these days seem to be one eyed fanboys rather than serious film lovers or box office followers.
It didn’t and it won’t. People are moving the goalposts because they like this movie. They did the same thing for OBAA. Then they claim anyone who looks at the numbers objectively are just haters who “hate movies”.
You’d think this movie had a $100M OW based on the upvoted comments in this thread and others like it.
Man I watched that and don’t remember either of them. Well I had to put it on like five times cause I kept watching it hammered I really don’t remember much of anything.
Low end I see $15.5M OW (so $25M for 4 days), high end $18.5M ($28M 4 days). Damn that's good. I hope it's higher cuz this movie's really good and deserves to be a success.
This is how I feel, I personally wouldn't go see it and I don't really like chalamet but I love seeing movies, especially original movies, do so well. I don't get why some people are just coming in hating so hard, it drowns out any valid criticism
Online talk doesn't translate to irl results most of the time, but I've seen a lot of posts about people who went to see Avatar and their audiences' reactions to the Chris Evans Doomsday trailer ranged from silence to vocal disappointment. Of course, the movie is still a year out from release and things could change in that timespan, but right now Dune isn't in as such a bad spot as one might think, especially if the momentum from this movie translates to post-holiday legs
Need to be cautious until they release an actual trailer. Seeing 'Steve Rogers is back in Avengers Doomsday' over a slowed down piano version of the avengers theme is not the hype machine that seeing him in action in a real trailer will be, imo. Though I personally really liked the piano version of a masterful theme song lol
Anecdotal. I've also seen the Steve Rogers and Thor teasers actually catch the attention of a lot of people who stopped caring about the MCU since Endgame. I still think it's likely Dune will move unless they see opportunity to synergize like Oppenheimer and Barbie.
Oh I totally agree. While Dune is closer to the IMAX brand, Doomsday has the disney pocketbooks behind it. And IMAX will want them both to get a full run in their theaters. Just meant that Barbie and Oppy didn't face this level of fight between them for PLFs
Timmy’s on a Christmas run. Wonka, A Complete Unknown, Marty Supreme and then Dun3. And Dune pt 1 was at one point scheduled to be released on Christmas Day 2020 before being delayed.
Dune 3 should move tho, yes it would end the "chalamet in December" streak but I don't care, I'd rather it have more time to itself than share release with avengers.
Or it could be bad for marvel. Maybe it’s just my bubble but if I were to poll my friends/family which of those movies they’d pick to see Dune would win by a landslide. Marvel has no cultural hold since endgame really.
culturally, avengers movies are still way more of a pull. disregarding quality, a new avengers movie is something your grandparents might see just to get out of the house, while they absolutely aren't going to do the same for dune pt.3
Dune occupies a different lane from Avengers anyway.
The target audience is basically concentric circles, there’s 0 chance it doesn’t move, WB just have no incentive to tell or show they’re gonna move before they actually do
Yeah Chalamet is a bonafide star. He was insane in this movie and I can see him getting another oscar nom (if the oscars don't decide to snub Safdie again)
Yep! It's not as anxiety inducing as Uncut Gems (those last 20 minutes with his final bet are straight up the most anxious I've ever been watching any movie) but Marty Supreme very much captures the same non-stop chaotic atmosphere with Chalamet just talking himself into, out of, and back into trouble haha.
Really hope this thing succeeds. Awards season should mean its legs are solid. Those last fifteen minutes had my heart beating sooo fast… that score was epic.
Great film yes. Best of the year… ehh. I do understand why certain people who love certain types of movies which martie Supreme is would love it though.
For me it was because idk I didn’t really love neither OBAA or Sinners. Good movies but not my favorites. I’ve seen uncut gems so many times over the years that this def was always gonna be up my alley. I love the performances and cinematography
Genuine question why is everyone acting like it's a box office success?
If this finishes at like 140m world wide, (bob dylan movie made that much) wouldn't this make it a flop because of a 70m budget and the marketing seem expensive too.
why would a critically acclaimed niche r rated movie doubling its budget be considered a flop are you dense? do you people even know how movies even work or just yap and yap endlessly.
this is an indie movie with almost no audience completely banking on star power, it’s a miracle it’s doing this good.
Also the so called marketing yall keep using as a gotcha moment was actually very cost effective and more viral organic hype carefully orchestrated by chalamet since october & financed by him as he said. Only things a24 would have had to cover would be the blimp and the Empire State Building turning orange/ maybe a few more inexpensive promo. sphere was sponsored by cashapp & chalamet
Because the Box Office is the first and not the last revenue stream a film has.
There are streaming and blu ray sales to consider.
Then there is an unquantifiable value that is associated with prestige. Awards nominations, Awards wins, Rotten Tomatoes Scores, Letterboxd curves all have a financial value. The reputation that a studio has affects its valuation, but is difficult to put an exact number on.
Studios release many films a year, and they are willing to take a hit at the box office if it contributes to the narrative that they make high quality films.
If a film does well at the oscars but makes a loss at the box office, the studio will likely still consider the film a success. And it may still be financially anyway, because it's still part of their catalogue, it's still providing residuals from streaming, and its continued existence still contributes towards that studios stock price.
Based on what? We don’t know how much money this movie needs to make in the BO to make a profit. Let alone how much sales it will do after being in theaters. And then there’s long-term added value if it wins or is nominated for any awards.
I'm asking about NUMBERS only. OBBA was critically acclaimed but still flopped, the two things have nothing to do with each other anyway, since it's literally just NUMBERS.
Stop acting like I'm part of specific group that is praying for it's downfall. People in this sub keep using the 2.5 multiplier rule, and according to that it needs 175m to not flop, hence my question.
If you have specific numbers for what is the break even number for this movie then feel free to enlighten me.
First I wouldn’t call Obaa a flop. Box office success is not black and white or always completely reliant on the 2.5 multiplier.
Obaa made over 200m almost doubling its budget and is set to win best picture, that’s not a movie that flopped in any sense of the word.
A respectable amount at the box office plus critical acclaim is usually a success. as long as it didn’t visibly bomb.
It’s like saying a complete unknown flopped because it didn’t make 2.5, well no it’s not a flop. critical acclaim somewhat override numbers too in a sense or better yet go hand in hand, especially in Hollywood. it’s only ever just “numbers” if there’s no critical acclaim to boost narrative.
Am I being punked here? I literally said I only care about numbers yet you are still talking about critical acclaim and Oscar and shit. I don't give a fuck if OBAA wins an oscar or a razzie, I said NUMBERS.
It made 205m on a 130-175m budget, how on earth is that ''almost doubling it's budget'' even if we assume the lowest estimate double it's budget would be 260m, being 55m away is ''almost doubling it's budget''? the fuck
I don't care whether or not the movie is successful with oscar context. I only care if it's successful in BOX OFFICE, since this is a BOX OFFICE sub.
You don't care at all about anything except a sport you've invented based on rules you've made up. Numbers? Like numbers mean anything sans context. It's honestly depressing to know there are people like this out there in the world.
I mean, in his defense, this is a box office thread and he’s literally just talking about box office. His whole point is that people can talk about other aspects of a movie all they want but box office is a hard # that translates to profitability. If anything the counterpoint to his view is the side playing ‘sports’ ie trying to analyze all these elements other than box office.
This is literally a box office sub, where we evaluate films based on numbers, not critical acclaim. A film losing money is hardly a win even if it gets good reviews.
Because films continue to exist after they leave theatres. They still provide value to the studios that greenlight them, which are still quantifiable in NUMBERS, just in the future.
Streaming is an indefinete revenue stream, as is blu ray sales, again if it ever airs on television etc. When a companys share price is valued, it takes into account all of its assets. A film that didn't make its money back at the box office is still an "asset" to that company and it is included in that companies stock price.
You can choose not to care about oscars, or reviews, or legacy etc, but this is a deliberately reductive method of thinking about "numbers".
What numbers do you want? The movie cost $130 million, as widely reported. It earned over $200 million at the box office, and by all accounts, the studio has looked at the movie as a big success. Do you know something they don't? Because I guarantee you they have more access to "numbers" than you do. Did it break even theatrically? Based on simple math and some basic assumptions, certainly not, but who the fuck cares? What value do you get in your life from being able to call it a flop, which is another word for failure? How small is your world? How sad?
Not sure why you’re getting these ridiculous replies from people for asking a legitimate question. I swear the hard on for this movie is truly bizarre.
If you’re talking numbers only: the production budget being reported is around ~$70M and if the marketing really is ~$70M too, then you’re looking at ~$140M all in. At that point, a $140M worldwide gross would not be a box office success — because the studio/distributor doesn’t get $140M back. After theater splits, $140M WW might translate to something like $55–70M back to the distributor, which is nowhere near covering $140M in costs.
So yeah, if the $70M marketing rumor is even close to true, $140M WW would be closer to “didn’t break even theatrically” than “hit.” I guess people can still call it a “win” in terms of awareness/culture/overperformance for an original movie, but financially those are different conversations — as you’ve noted.
Right. Foreign sales are a thing. But it’s not just free money on top of WW box office. If you pre-sell foreign you’re usually trading international box office upside for a fixed guaranteed amount up front. It reduces risk, but it also means you can’t look at WW gross and assume the studio is collecting a normal share of every territory.
And if the rumor is 70M for domestic marketing… that’s not “relatively cheap” by definition. And viral stunts are usually in addition to a normal campaign, not a replacement for it.
I mean that’s fair.. it’s all rumored since P&A is rarely public. But claiming the marketing budget was “relatively cheap” is also speculation (and poor speculation in my opinion, but I digress).
My broader point is just about how the business works. If you’re not interested in that and just want to argue from a place of fandom, then there’s nothing productive here to discuss.
Expectations were sky-high for this film relative to its profile (original film with a weird subject by very film-bro filmmakers) so even just the fact that it didn't disappoint I think is very exciting for a lot of people. Even more so because we've had a good number of highly acclaimed original movies with big BO hauls this year (Sinners, OBAA) so it's another one on the pile of a promising trend.
I don't feel like expectations were ever "sky-high". It's a good results relative to the budget, but it's not blowing me away yet. Maybe it's legs will
I say "sky high" only relative to other similar films. If you told me a couple years ago a Safdie film with Chalamet as a ping pong player would be looking to get a $20-30m opening weekend I wouldn't have bought it. So the fact that that seems to be what's happening and it's not a total shock is kind of wild, at least to me, and worth being excited about
I haven’t seen every movie that’s come out this year and this is maybe my first year consistently trying to watch movies but from what I’ve seen this year I’d say OBAA, Warfare and The Longest Walk I enjoyed more, there are others too….it might just not be my cup of tea. Again not saying it was bad but I don’t think it was the best.
That’s cool OBAA is probably my number 1 or 2 film of the year too. I just meant it’s important to know if im engaging with someone who is actually watching quality films or someone who is just like “avatar made the most money give it the Oscar”
Audience reception is much better than Uncut Gems and that had perfectly fine legs. This isn't the kind of movie that would be sunk by a B+ Cinemascore; it'll continue to find whatever audience there is for it with time.
It's also bound to get significant Oscars attention which will help give it a late boost.
8.3 on imdb, 4.3 on letterboxd, 83 on rotten tomatoes. The scores are pretty on par with critics though? B+ cinema score for an R rated movies is actually on the higher side too
I would think everyone that wants to see it is seeing it first weekend. After that maybe word of mouth does amazing idk. It’s definitely a movie for the film lover crowd who know what A24 is and who the Safdies are.
I liked good time. Uncut gems - hated lead character... so coin flip for me haha. Understanding same people made those - I struggle with unlikable leads.
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What a strange group of people this sub attracts. I’m a huge movie fan, but I also like numbers so I find it interesting to follow the box office. However, many of you do not seem interested in movies at all lmao
Usually the case with people who are a little too invested in the technical side of a hobby or type of media. They forget what it’s all about in the first place.
You see it with statistics nerds in sports, or people obsessed with sales in music, the discourse becomes insufferable.
Television ratings discussions in the wrestling world will make you want to rip your hair out
It's about the cones!
The people that seemingly hate this movie the most also haven’t even seen it. It truly is a strange and bizarre impulse.
As for myself, I find it nice to see a movie do well as it is great for the theater industry. This movie in particular is great to see succeed because it is an original film from a smaller studio which I would like to see more of. It’s easy to get lost in the numbers on a sub like this though and a couple of people try make theirselves Hollywood accountants.
Most bizarre sub I've ever visited. Only been here a few weeks. I just like films so thought I'd check it out but christ do people in here actually like films?
There's a lot of haters in general, but tbf there's also been an influx of people who aren't interested in the numbers either, which is odd for a box office sub. Came up a lot in One Battle After Another threads.
Following box office is really interesting imo, especially if you love movies/go to theaters a lot. It's certainly not the end all be all in terms of quality, of course.
I did not see that all in the OBAA threads. What I saw a lot of was people determined to call it a failure, and worse, to suggest no studio should ever greenlight a project like it. And it didn't matter how much others pointed out that there are all kinds of motivations to greenlight a movie like that, or that as an audience we should be grateful WB took the gamble either way. Those guys just stuck to their guns on the idea that if it didn't hit 2.5x, it was a colossal failure that proves nobody should ever invest big money in an original movie by an art house filmmaker.
People who pop in here are interested in the box office numbers, but not in some, frankly, idiotic and single-minded way like the real die hards who treat it all as nothing more than a sport for betting and probably haven't gone to the movies in years if ever.
That is a straight up lie. This sub was non-stop glazing One Battle for months, and using all kind of mental gymnastics to prove how it was actually a huge success.
Anyone who said anything to the effect of "this proves Hollywood should never invest in an original movie again", would've been downvoted into the hundreds, because that's clearly an insanely bad take, regardless of One Battle's performance.
Lol this is all anecdotal and I'm admittedly not on this sub every day but I saw countless people ripping how big the budget was. Same with Killers of the Flower Moon a year or two ago. I'm sure there's good comments glazing it too, the sub is big enough to be diverse, but I'm gonna push back that it was a lie. I guess we all have had different experiences here.
Fair enough, I concede.
I’m just a bit salty as I thought One Battle was good but not great, and the posts I happened to come across glazing it as the best movie in the past decade were grinding my gears. A lot of it was politically motivated as well, which irritates me, as I feel the movie should stand on its own merits, not based on how you vote.
But you’re right, I doubt he was lying, it depends which specific posts you happened to delve into.
I'm with you . It's so polarizing . I liked the movie and am happy people are watching , I can talk it's awesomeness and how many nominations it deserves in a ton of subs . This sub is box office , so I come here to see what projections are and total numbers are and how accurate they estimated ,and what production and marketing budgets are to see if it works business wise .
They're very different conversations and there's room for all of them in different places and it can also change depending on longevity etc but the numbers are still fascinating to see and to see how theatres and people react and predict what we think this will do for future movies.
Also people here are like shut up moron, you don't know what your asking or talking about , it's just not something to be so mean or personal about and either the screen emboldens people or I don't want to ever encounter these users in real life
If you want to focus just on box office, then that is fine. But once you start talking about production and marketing budget you are talking about profitiability, not box office.
The box office is the first and not tbe last revenue stream a film has. So if we are to talk about profitability we also need to consider streaming liscences, VOD, blu ray, the value it adds to a studios share price from being an asset they own. If we are to think about future profit then things like Oscar nominations and wins, imdb an letterboxd curves, critical response etc are relevant factors to that.
Now if you want to JUST talk box office, then production and marketing budget have no relevance here. If you want to talk about profitiability you need to consider all of the above.
Yup, very much so.
Back between 2020 through to 2024, we saw a lot of it here.
Redditors with no interest in box office coming to the box office subreddit and seething at those who find the subject matter at hand to be an interesting part of the industry.
But it's got a lot worse in 2025.
Every single month, a new movie (be it a part of a franchise or a filmmaker's filmography) releases and people with 00:00% interest in discussing box office spam every single article, unfathomably angry at those of us who simply wish to discuss this one single part of the motion picture industry.
And when you ask them why they're here, most resort to a tantrum and refuse to give an actual answer.
Yeh I was getting this sub suggested to me loads I'm guessing others have
The recommended subs are such garbage. I literally have to mute all of them.
there was a poll here a while back and it turns out a lot of users here straight up don't really watch movies
I don't understand those folks. I go to the cinema most months and I follow this sub to get an idea of what's doing well and to root for movies I enjoy watching.
I can't imagine following the box office if I didn't have an avid interest in films.
Well, you know, the Batman Arkham games sub is out there.
This sub got reccomended for me as well and its truly very disappointing the way people talk here. I love films but like the og commenter said, I also like seeing BO numbers but people here are so "anti-art", its crazy. Everyone is always like there's only IP and blockbuster movies, there's no original movies left. Then, when an original movie comes out, they vehemently are against it. They try to downplay its success or have this weird attitude about "who asked for this?", "its too risky". Marty Supreme especially seems like this sub's new thing to hate on
The movie also only releases februari the 18th where I live.
It’s weid they didn’t rollout with a global release and we have to wait 2 months but it makes the numbers somewhat irrelevant until the film goed global
I know the focus on this sub is "box office" but I think people here also grossly underestimate how much money streaming/ VOD/ blu ray makes as well and aren't actualy taking into account that even a film that doesn't make its money back at the box office can still be successful.
Ffs this sub is about box office not the lifetime profitability of a movie.
It’s fine to zone in on box office as the focus of this sub
but people still use terms like “flop”
A term like “flop” suggests more than “this did not make money at the box office”
It suggests “this movie should not have been made”, when many films that don’t make its money back at the box office are financial successes. See: The Shawshank Redemption and Fight Club.
And if we’re not talking about profitability holistically there is no reason to discuss budget at all. There’s no reason to make a distinction between a film that made 200 million at the box office against a 300m budget or 200 million against a 20m budget. Because budget only has relevance to profitability and no relevance to box office.
They root against films like these because it runs counter to their belief that only IP-driven blockbusters can succeed. I feel like there's a bunch of users here who actually seem angry that prestige projects or loss leaders exist at all, as a concept
I think a lot of people in the sub just like to root for movies to bomb at the box office.
The part that should surprise you more is many of the most active users don't even seem to understand how any of it works at all.
It’s annoying because like 90% of this sub only watch and root for major franchises or Disney.
I love all film including franchises and blockbusters but I also love and root for small/ original films just as much.
It’s just Benny Safdie’s 200 burner accounts
Unfortunately this is the way of the internet these days. I’ve been following box office numbers (and love movies) since the early 90s. Via limited reports on TV to magazines to purchasing weekly Variety back in the mid 90s.
In 1996 i went to university and had regular internet access so enjoyed the box office stats the Internet had in its infancy. This quickly led to finding others like myself on forums and bulletin boards (Mr Showbiz, Box Office Report, Box office Mojo and later World of KJ). This was the glory era and discourse was amazing. The killer was social media that pretty much killed off forums as we knew them (outside a few - Reddit being one). I still post on World of KJ which is still running but otherwise BO discussion is either here or on Facebook/X etc.
The lesson is - the floodgates have opened to all sorts who these days seem to be one eyed fanboys rather than serious film lovers or box office followers.
Yep
Same people who hold Avatar 3 up as the height of filmmaking lol
It’s absolutely not the same people at all. Those people don’t even comment here.
Yes they do lmao? Everyone here equates success to quality as a film is releasing. There’s like a euphoria around films like avatar
I guess Chalamet’s marketing tactics actually worked!
im dumb as hell. Why is this considered good? Looks like it didnt make much money?
It didn’t and it won’t. People are moving the goalposts because they like this movie. They did the same thing for OBAA. Then they claim anyone who looks at the numbers objectively are just haters who “hate movies”.
You’d think this movie had a $100M OW based on the upvoted comments in this thread and others like it.
It’s because it’s doing better than expected. But it probably won’t make a profit in theaters.
👍
Outgrossed The Smashing Machine's 11.41 million cume.
Guess that settles Safdie Supreme
The Rock changed the hierarchy of Safdie Bros as well.
In retrospect Black Adam’s box office was impressive and it wouldn’t have made 1/3 of what it did without him.
I'm not sure what you're saying.
"This failure could've failed harder but it didn't."
So you know exactly what I’m saying.
That’s really the cume?
Unfortunately
Some people might be put off by the runtime and the central character being a bit unlikable but I felt it was engaging throughout and a great movie.
Biggest movie of the year with two hiphop artists.
Best vampire movie of the year
Uh, you mean THREE hiphop artists: Lil Timmy Tim, Esdeekid, and Tyler the Creator.
Bro mentioned the same person twice 😭
I don't get it
Lil Timmy Tim and Tyler, the Creator both star in Marty Supreme
Actually. The naked gun had busta rhymes and Weird Al Yankovich
One Battle had Teyana and Dijon. And I guess depending on your leniency for how well known they are, Junglepussy. She clears Timmy at least.
I’ve never heard of Teyana, Dijon, Jungle Pussy or Tim.
Oh, cuz it's Junglepussy. Not sure who Jungle Pussy is.
Man I watched that and don’t remember either of them. Well I had to put it on like five times cause I kept watching it hammered I really don’t remember much of anything.
Ahhh
aka 2 inches
Never heard of Lil Timmy Tim.
That is really good for its 4 Day Christmas Weekend tracking around $25M that would be ahead of A Complete Unknown 5 Day Christmas Weekend with $23.2M
It will be closer to $30M
The east coast winter storm might have other plans
missed continuity opportunity not having these orange ping pong dudes wear white
Saw it yesterday and had a really good time.
Low end I see $15.5M OW (so $25M for 4 days), high end $18.5M ($28M 4 days). Damn that's good. I hope it's higher cuz this movie's really good and deserves to be a success.
People are so mad that this movie is doing well both critically AND commercially, it's kind of incredible
I think it’s the marketing, which was obnoxious/catering to terminally online internet hype culture (my opinion) & makes it easy to hate.
Regardless, Safdie & Bronstein deserve the credit & movies like this finding box office success is a good thing.
As the terminally online internet hype culture participant who was successfully targeted… uh, sorry about that
I’m not hating — but my sense is the marketing is what’s driving a lot of the hate/wishing for the movie to flop.
I’m excited to see it.
This is how I feel, I personally wouldn't go see it and I don't really like chalamet but I love seeing movies, especially original movies, do so well. I don't get why some people are just coming in hating so hard, it drowns out any valid criticism
I can see why wb holding their ground on dune
DunesDay
Online talk doesn't translate to irl results most of the time, but I've seen a lot of posts about people who went to see Avatar and their audiences' reactions to the Chris Evans Doomsday trailer ranged from silence to vocal disappointment. Of course, the movie is still a year out from release and things could change in that timespan, but right now Dune isn't in as such a bad spot as one might think, especially if the momentum from this movie translates to post-holiday legs
Need to be cautious until they release an actual trailer. Seeing 'Steve Rogers is back in Avengers Doomsday' over a slowed down piano version of the avengers theme is not the hype machine that seeing him in action in a real trailer will be, imo. Though I personally really liked the piano version of a masterful theme song lol
Anecdotal. I've also seen the Steve Rogers and Thor teasers actually catch the attention of a lot of people who stopped caring about the MCU since Endgame. I still think it's likely Dune will move unless they see opportunity to synergize like Oppenheimer and Barbie.
Barbie carried a fraction of the PLF screens Oppenheimer did. Both Dune and Doomsday want to be huge, exclusive PLF releases
Which is why I think it’s likely for Dune to move.
Oh I totally agree. While Dune is closer to the IMAX brand, Doomsday has the disney pocketbooks behind it. And IMAX will want them both to get a full run in their theaters. Just meant that Barbie and Oppy didn't face this level of fight between them for PLFs
Yeah I agree with your point on PLE screens. Sorry I didn’t mean to come off like I didn’t.
Oh you're totally good, I didn't take it as antagonistic at all
Timmy’s on a Christmas run. Wonka, A Complete Unknown, Marty Supreme and then Dun3. And Dune pt 1 was at one point scheduled to be released on Christmas Day 2020 before being delayed.
He was also in Little Women which was Christmas 2019! (Not the lead obviously but a fun connection)
Dune 3 should move tho, yes it would end the "chalamet in December" streak but I don't care, I'd rather it have more time to itself than share release with avengers.
what is they holding their ground on?
(They’re holding it against Avenger Doomsday)
Dunesday is going to be the next Barbenheimer.
Refusing to move the Dune 3 release date even though Marvel has since moved the next Avengers movie to the same day
Oh yeah gotcha, yeah that could be bad for Dune for sure
Or it could be bad for marvel. Maybe it’s just my bubble but if I were to poll my friends/family which of those movies they’d pick to see Dune would win by a landslide. Marvel has no cultural hold since endgame really.
And Dune is a must see in theatres for the experience.
Doomsday probably will give some visual treats like Endgame, but it's not the same lived experience as Dune.
culturally, avengers movies are still way more of a pull. disregarding quality, a new avengers movie is something your grandparents might see just to get out of the house, while they absolutely aren't going to do the same for dune pt.3
Yup, hold the line! No reason for them to move Dune. Dune occupies a different lane from Avengers anyway.
The target audience is basically concentric circles, there’s 0 chance it doesn’t move, WB just have no incentive to tell or show they’re gonna move before they actually do
Different lanes? The target audience is 80% the same.
I think the interest in dune transcends Chalamet, I don’t think it would be opposing marvel even with a month plus long viral marketing campaign
I mean the holding ground thing is overrated, imax gets to pick who actually doesn’t move lol
lol and imax just announced dune gets the screens
Lil Timmy Tim got fans!
Yeah Chalamet is a bonafide star. He was insane in this movie and I can see him getting another oscar nom (if the oscars don't decide to snub Safdie again)
Kevin O’Leary walkups
Coincidently, one of my main complaints about the movie is that that human thumb, Kevin O'Leary is in it.
But he’s so good as the villain 😭 maybe because he’s not playing a character.
He plays an old heartless cuck, he was born for that role
I’m glad to see these numbers
This movie is fucking amazing
Uncut Gems didn't even get a cinema release here in the UK (I think?). Hope this does numbers and Safdie gets to keep releasing theatrically.
Without spoiling, does it have a similar vibe to Uncut Gems? Like the constant anxiety/noises throughout?
Can’t wait to see it!
Yep! It's not as anxiety inducing as Uncut Gems (those last 20 minutes with his final bet are straight up the most anxious I've ever been watching any movie) but Marty Supreme very much captures the same non-stop chaotic atmosphere with Chalamet just talking himself into, out of, and back into trouble haha.
Nah I saw Uncut Gems in cinemas in the UK. Netflix distributed it so there was a very limited run for two weeks or so before it dropped on there.
Ah right makes sense, cheers
The Safdie with the sauce
Hope this can get more screenings. My theater is only running one auditorium for this and all the showings are close to sell outs.
most A24 films have a 10m marketing budget , this had triple before the Oscar campaign , still a great result for this type of movie
This movie was so F’ing good, want to see the box office numbers soar
Hide yo kids, hide yo Kylie, Timmy is here
He's gonna do to the box office what The Rock couldn't
Really hope this thing succeeds. Awards season should mean its legs are solid. Those last fifteen minutes had my heart beating sooo fast… that score was epic.
Such a great film. Best of the year
Great film yes. Best of the year… ehh. I do understand why certain people who love certain types of movies which martie Supreme is would love it though.
True everyone knows Hamnet is the true best film of the year.
Hasn't even released here in the UK :( maybe it'll be the best of 2026 for us haha
I don't think there's really a consensus for a best of the year this year.
I see One Battle After Another, Hamnet, Marty Supreme and Sinners all having a sizeable number of advocates.
For me it was because idk I didn’t really love neither OBAA or Sinners. Good movies but not my favorites. I’ve seen uncut gems so many times over the years that this def was always gonna be up my alley. I love the performances and cinematography
I liked obaa but can't think of it as a masterpiece. So i hope Marty supreme has the sauce to be the best movie of the year
Yeah the recency bias for this film is crazy
My vote would also be for Marty. After that, any contender that isn't OBAA, which did not work for me -- huge PTA and Leo fan otherwise.
Movie was ok at best.
Just seen it and honestly fact, it's the best of the year.
Idk…..
Enjoyed this a lot. It’s too long but it’s a winner.
Genuine question why is everyone acting like it's a box office success?
If this finishes at like 140m world wide, (bob dylan movie made that much) wouldn't this make it a flop because of a 70m budget and the marketing seem expensive too.
why would a critically acclaimed niche r rated movie doubling its budget be considered a flop are you dense? do you people even know how movies even work or just yap and yap endlessly. this is an indie movie with almost no audience completely banking on star power, it’s a miracle it’s doing this good.
Also the so called marketing yall keep using as a gotcha moment was actually very cost effective and more viral organic hype carefully orchestrated by chalamet since october & financed by him as he said. Only things a24 would have had to cover would be the blimp and the Empire State Building turning orange/ maybe a few more inexpensive promo. sphere was sponsored by cashapp & chalamet
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Because the Box Office is the first and not the last revenue stream a film has.
There are streaming and blu ray sales to consider.
Then there is an unquantifiable value that is associated with prestige. Awards nominations, Awards wins, Rotten Tomatoes Scores, Letterboxd curves all have a financial value. The reputation that a studio has affects its valuation, but is difficult to put an exact number on.
Studios release many films a year, and they are willing to take a hit at the box office if it contributes to the narrative that they make high quality films.
If a film does well at the oscars but makes a loss at the box office, the studio will likely still consider the film a success. And it may still be financially anyway, because it's still part of their catalogue, it's still providing residuals from streaming, and its continued existence still contributes towards that studios stock price.
Based on what? We don’t know how much money this movie needs to make in the BO to make a profit. Let alone how much sales it will do after being in theaters. And then there’s long-term added value if it wins or is nominated for any awards.
I'm asking about NUMBERS only. OBBA was critically acclaimed but still flopped, the two things have nothing to do with each other anyway, since it's literally just NUMBERS.
Stop acting like I'm part of specific group that is praying for it's downfall. People in this sub keep using the 2.5 multiplier rule, and according to that it needs 175m to not flop, hence my question.
If you have specific numbers for what is the break even number for this movie then feel free to enlighten me.
First I wouldn’t call Obaa a flop. Box office success is not black and white or always completely reliant on the 2.5 multiplier. Obaa made over 200m almost doubling its budget and is set to win best picture, that’s not a movie that flopped in any sense of the word.
A respectable amount at the box office plus critical acclaim is usually a success. as long as it didn’t visibly bomb. It’s like saying a complete unknown flopped because it didn’t make 2.5, well no it’s not a flop. critical acclaim somewhat override numbers too in a sense or better yet go hand in hand, especially in Hollywood. it’s only ever just “numbers” if there’s no critical acclaim to boost narrative.
Am I being punked here? I literally said I only care about numbers yet you are still talking about critical acclaim and Oscar and shit. I don't give a fuck if OBAA wins an oscar or a razzie, I said NUMBERS.
It made 205m on a 130-175m budget, how on earth is that ''almost doubling it's budget'' even if we assume the lowest estimate double it's budget would be 260m, being 55m away is ''almost doubling it's budget''? the fuck
I don't care whether or not the movie is successful with oscar context. I only care if it's successful in BOX OFFICE, since this is a BOX OFFICE sub.
flop = not breaking even
bomb = not even matching the budget
You don't care at all about anything except a sport you've invented based on rules you've made up. Numbers? Like numbers mean anything sans context. It's honestly depressing to know there are people like this out there in the world.
I mean, in his defense, this is a box office thread and he’s literally just talking about box office. His whole point is that people can talk about other aspects of a movie all they want but box office is a hard # that translates to profitability. If anything the counterpoint to his view is the side playing ‘sports’ ie trying to analyze all these elements other than box office.
This is literally a box office sub, where we evaluate films based on numbers, not critical acclaim. A film losing money is hardly a win even if it gets good reviews.
bro why can't people just give me numbers..
Rules I made? what? I'm asking what is the break even point for a 70m budget movie, where is the rules I made up?
Its honestly depressing having this bad of a reading compression.
Because films continue to exist after they leave theatres. They still provide value to the studios that greenlight them, which are still quantifiable in NUMBERS, just in the future.
Streaming is an indefinete revenue stream, as is blu ray sales, again if it ever airs on television etc. When a companys share price is valued, it takes into account all of its assets. A film that didn't make its money back at the box office is still an "asset" to that company and it is included in that companies stock price.
You can choose not to care about oscars, or reviews, or legacy etc, but this is a deliberately reductive method of thinking about "numbers".
What numbers do you want? The movie cost $130 million, as widely reported. It earned over $200 million at the box office, and by all accounts, the studio has looked at the movie as a big success. Do you know something they don't? Because I guarantee you they have more access to "numbers" than you do. Did it break even theatrically? Based on simple math and some basic assumptions, certainly not, but who the fuck cares? What value do you get in your life from being able to call it a flop, which is another word for failure? How small is your world? How sad?
This is so ironic lmao
Getting all in your feels because somebody accurately called a movie flop.
I promise if 130-170m buget movies continuously made only 205m then movies would disappear. There is no way that movie was commercially successful.
You are acting like because I point out the obvious fact that a movie unperformed commercially that I'm somehow relishing that based on nothing.
You lack basic critical thinking skills and not worth talking to.
seek help I guess
you need to improve your reading comprehension, fr fr.
I'm worried for you bro.
you sound like a completely unserious and hysterical person who views movies as sports rather than art.
Not sure why you’re getting these ridiculous replies from people for asking a legitimate question. I swear the hard on for this movie is truly bizarre.
If you’re talking numbers only: the production budget being reported is around ~$70M and if the marketing really is ~$70M too, then you’re looking at ~$140M all in. At that point, a $140M worldwide gross would not be a box office success — because the studio/distributor doesn’t get $140M back. After theater splits, $140M WW might translate to something like $55–70M back to the distributor, which is nowhere near covering $140M in costs.
So yeah, if the $70M marketing rumor is even close to true, $140M WW would be closer to “didn’t break even theatrically” than “hit.” I guess people can still call it a “win” in terms of awareness/culture/overperformance for an original movie, but financially those are different conversations — as you’ve noted.
They sell the rights to distribute overseas. Smashing machine was sold for 35 million for example.
And the marketing campaign was relatively cheap. Essentially just going for viral marketing stunts.
Right. Foreign sales are a thing. But it’s not just free money on top of WW box office. If you pre-sell foreign you’re usually trading international box office upside for a fixed guaranteed amount up front. It reduces risk, but it also means you can’t look at WW gross and assume the studio is collecting a normal share of every territory.
And if the rumor is 70M for domestic marketing… that’s not “relatively cheap” by definition. And viral stunts are usually in addition to a normal campaign, not a replacement for it.
This a rumor sub now?
They barely did a traditional campaign. We know this, I don’t know here you are getting your figures from but it’s laughable.
I mean that’s fair.. it’s all rumored since P&A is rarely public. But claiming the marketing budget was “relatively cheap” is also speculation (and poor speculation in my opinion, but I digress).
My broader point is just about how the business works. If you’re not interested in that and just want to argue from a place of fandom, then there’s nothing productive here to discuss.
Some of the comments here are acting like this is doing super well when it's doing pretty much what it was projected to do?
Expectations were sky-high for this film relative to its profile (original film with a weird subject by very film-bro filmmakers) so even just the fact that it didn't disappoint I think is very exciting for a lot of people. Even more so because we've had a good number of highly acclaimed original movies with big BO hauls this year (Sinners, OBAA) so it's another one on the pile of a promising trend.
I don't feel like expectations were ever "sky-high". It's a good results relative to the budget, but it's not blowing me away yet. Maybe it's legs will
I say "sky high" only relative to other similar films. If you told me a couple years ago a Safdie film with Chalamet as a ping pong player would be looking to get a $20-30m opening weekend I wouldn't have bought it. So the fact that that seems to be what's happening and it's not a total shock is kind of wild, at least to me, and worth being excited about
But it's not looking at a $30m opening weekend m
True, but it is looking at a $20-30m opening weekend, as I said
I think that would require a Fri-Sat jump which you shouldn't expect for a holiday week
well no, it was projected to do just over 12m and has since doubled those numbers hence the excitement
For the 3 day
No trackers and variety had it at 12-17 for 4 days, full weekend.
The people calling Chalamet lisan al gaib were going to do that no matter what the box office numbers were
I don’t think the movie was as bad as people were making it to seem but I’ve been seeing movie of the year and it’s not that at all lol.
Qualify your opinion by listing what you think is movie of the year? That helps people to know how to take what you said
I haven’t seen every movie that’s come out this year and this is maybe my first year consistently trying to watch movies but from what I’ve seen this year I’d say OBAA, Warfare and The Longest Walk I enjoyed more, there are others too….it might just not be my cup of tea. Again not saying it was bad but I don’t think it was the best.
That’s cool OBAA is probably my number 1 or 2 film of the year too. I just meant it’s important to know if im engaging with someone who is actually watching quality films or someone who is just like “avatar made the most money give it the Oscar”
Movie was ok. There are much better previous A24 movie than this one. Marty Supreme is supremely overhyped.
Front loaded. I predict this one won’t have legs. Audience scores aren’t as hot as the critics’ reception
Audience reception is much better than Uncut Gems and that had perfectly fine legs. This isn't the kind of movie that would be sunk by a B+ Cinemascore; it'll continue to find whatever audience there is for it with time.
It's also bound to get significant Oscars attention which will help give it a late boost.
Marty Supreme is the first frontloaded movie that goes up with every new update
8.3 on imdb, 4.3 on letterboxd, 83 on rotten tomatoes. The scores are pretty on par with critics though? B+ cinema score for an R rated movies is actually on the higher side too
Have you seen it?
Give it a few more days when it passes Uncut Gems' numbers by next week and we'll see.
Yep, by Monday everyone who wanted to see it will have done so
I would think everyone that wants to see it is seeing it first weekend. After that maybe word of mouth does amazing idk. It’s definitely a movie for the film lover crowd who know what A24 is and who the Safdies are.
Curious on the hold for week 2. Seems like a movie to stream. But maybe crowdpleaser sports movie?
It's really only a crowdpleaser sports movie for the first hour or so, after that it becomes a really tense thriller like Uncut Gems or Good Time
I liked good time. Uncut gems - hated lead character... so coin flip for me haha. Understanding same people made those - I struggle with unlikable leads.
It’s definitely not. It’s a good reason to go to the theater.
Watch it in cinemas. The score is crazy and the movie looks amazing.
Next week's grosses will be around 1M to 4M
A movie with the involvement of Abel Ferrara has never been seen by such a wide audience at the theatrical level before
60-70 WW max it’s gonna die
Edit: the fact anyone thinks it’ll be profitable is laughable