People that have been in this fandom for a long time, are there any things that the fandom generally thought would happen that didn’t? Like were there any “consensus” predictions that didn’t happen in the books?
Obligatory “the books being finished” joke
The Grand Tyrell Conspiracy, which to my knowledge was the first "grand conspiracy" theory. A theory that the Tyrells were working with Taena Merryweather, Aurane Waters, and the High Sparrow to bring Cersei down. Debunked by Dance as Margaery was really arrested and is going to be tried.
You might also be interested in this page concerning theories about Aegon's survival. It talks about how people had theorized Sam, Edric Dayne, and Daario were Aegon.
I kinda miss the "everyone is Daario" phase of the fandom
It was pretty ridiculous.
Fortunately, we know now that everyone is Ser Arthur Dayne.
I think you mean Howland Reed
Howland Reed=Arthur Dayne confirmed!
weird way to spell Ser Pounce
Euron IS Dario though .
That's probably the biggest one that was so engrained in the fans' minds that turned out to not be true. There's something about the high sparrow (maybe the religious angle) that just draws conspiracy theorists like moths to a flame.
I think that people in the fandom are so wedded to the idea that everyone in the setting are out for themselves and has their own angle. So the high sparrow being genuine in his agenda throws people off.
He is a religious fanatic that is out to punish "sinners". But he is genuine in it by all accounts and not an act. And that goes against what fans are taught to expect.
"I think that people in the fandom are so wedded to the idea that everyone in the setting are out for themselves and has their own angle."
It's funny, because in both the show and the book, that's kind of how the High Sparrow gets power. People like Cersei and even the Tyrells can't comprehend someone not being in it for themselves.
he can still be in it for himself tbf he's just not necessarily in it for himself with anyone.
Certainly, there's still that ambiguity to the character.
That's why I like his plot, he's just a devout man (Not even corrupt like so many religious leaders).
Exactly. It's the ultimate GRRM thing. In the 90s these books were about turning fantasy tropes on their heads. Then the series blew up so big they became the fantasy tropes. And now GRRM can throw us a loop by having a character be religious and not corrupt
"Corrupt clergyman" has been a widespread trope since uhhhhh, I dunno? The New Testament certainly; or 19th/late 18th century literature, whether by Victor Hugo or Marquis de Sade (both have obviously featured corrupt as well as genuine priests, albeit the latter had his genuine priest deconverted lol).
With the way Asoiaf is set up, it really seems to be about variety more than anything else? Religions and superstitions and myths can range from absolute bogus to ambiguous to totally real. People have all sorts of personalities, beliefs and moral behavior patterns. Priests can be disillusioned charlatans turned true believers and magicians. Their faith may be bogus or produce real magic. They can be benevolent or rigid/conservative or dangerous zealots. Celibate or anything but. Corrupt and hypocritical or for real.
That seems to be the approach here I think?
That's exactly why it's so hard for everyone to process that the high sparrow might just be a devout non-corrupt guy
Oh, he's corrupt. He's overlooking the incest because it would be inconvenient for him if Tommen is illegitimate.
He's not overlooking it, it's one of the accusations Cersei is to be put on trial for.
I wouldn’t say people are wedded to the idea that everyone is out for themselves, I think it’s the opposite. So many theories here revolved around people being part of big elaborate conspiracies and all working in collaboration to a specific goal (e.g. grand northern conspiracy) so a person working specifically for the benefit of themselves/their faction and nothing else is what catches people by surprise.
I'm not sure I agree. I think it was more about how good of players the Tyrells were seen to be. They were seen as good enough that obviously they wouldn't be making mistakes. So any mistakes they did make(the moon tea, Dragonstone, Margaery getting arrested) were seen as part of the plan. And since they were part of the plan the people involved with them had to be involved with the plan too.
I suppose Pink Letter will be the next. (Winds Of Winter may never be done but the whole battle of ice section must be, at the very least)
It is still possible that Taena was a spy for the Tyrells.
It is also possible that she's a spy for Littlefinger or Varys. Or that she's just a very ambitious woman doing all for her own benefit. If we ever get more of her I hope we find out that her son doesn't even exist and she made it all up.
I'm more of a fan of the theory that her son is one of Robert's bastards. I think that's how Varys is blackmailing her into working for him. And I am sure it's Varys due to the old Gardener coin he left in the gaoler's room. He did that to implicate the Tyrells in Tyrion's escape and Taena is quick to tell Cersei about how Olenna has a stash of those coins.
Good share. I find it interesting that that theory was underpinned by the belief that two things that happened off-page---Margaery's arrest (not the cell visit, the actual arrest) and Loras's assaulting Dragonstone---could not have gone like that. It really goes to show that, if there is literally any doubt, some readers will leap on "so-and-so is lying, and this happening."
Not that doesn't happen in these books, but rarely something as outrageous as these events not being true.
Tbf, one of the many funny things about Cersei is that she can derail a well-crafted conspiracy by dint of pure stupidity.
Thanks!
Tbh I'm pretty happy about that. I really don't think that "Grand Conspiracies" would be a very good way in thematic terms to resolve plot points in ASOIAF. As GRRM quite rightly notes, good literature is about "the human heart in conflict with itself", which doesn't mesh very well with faceless Grand Conspiracies. The rise and fall of all of GRRM's major characters as a result always carries a strong personal tinge (from Ned to Catelyn to Cersei to Quentyn to many others).
This is also why I very much don't believe in the "Grand Northern Conspiracy". The fall of the Boltons I am 99% sure will occur in a way that stems from the personal repercussions of the Bolton and Frey's actions, and a personal moral triumph a la Reek->Theon of the major players. I couldn't say who will play the major roles, but probably one or more of (in no particular order) Theon, Manderly, Stannis, Jon, Melisandre, Mance, Davos, Asha, or Rickon. Maybe Sansa. The show's idea of Sansa rescuing the North with the Knights of the Vale was not a bad idea in a "homecoming" trope kind of sense, but the execution completely failed at communicating the thematic idea.
It's still possible that Aurane Waters worked with them/coordinated in some way. He ferried Loras to Dragonstone etc.
Now I think they are Targaryen loyalist and are helping fAegon via Varys.
"You might also be interested in this page concerning theories about Aegon's survival. It talks about how people had theorized Sam...was Aegon." The people who suspected this must have felt a little twitch during the show episode where Aemon, delirious on his deathbed, is with Sam and calls out to Egg.
Also, speaking of Taena and grand conspiracies: there is a theory that Taena/the Merryweathers are the Golden Company's "friends in the Reach" I believe? I think the reasoning (don't know if it's true) is that the Merryweathers lost land after Robert's Rebellion, and could be using faegon to get it back.
The big picture of the theory is dead but there’s still lots of people who think aurane or taena are working for the Tyrell’s and that Loras’ injuries were faked
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I have to ask, how was the fan reaction, back in the day, to:
1) Dany conquering slavers bay and then staying in Meereen.
2) Stannis showing up at the wall, and declaring to free the North
3) Jaime Lannister becoming a POV character
Cuz all three plot points are so obvious and a natural progression of the story for us today, but back in 2000 it must have been pretty wild.
Jaime as a POV character was pretty mind blowing, as was the fact that GRRM could evoke sympathy for what had previously been seen as someone who was pretty unambiguously villainous.
When it was revealed that there would be a Cersei POV in A Feast for Crows, many people assumed he was going to try the same trick again.
I fucking love Cersei's POV and what GRRM did with her. Yes, here's a crazy woman who's so narcissistic that she's lying to herself constantly. She's also super funny. AFFC was a hard read if not for Cersei
The only one I truly remember is Jaime becoming a POV, and that was definitely mind-blowing and completely unexpected by anyone I knew at the time. It helped that his chapters were some of the best in ASoS
As for the other two, I want to say even back then a lot of people were frustrated with Dany's detour, I believe it was as controversial then as it is now. I have no recollection of the perception of Stannis, that was long before he became a fan favourite
Very funny to how that played out.
Makes kinda sense, because of the Vision. Because why would dany see robbs death if she has nothing to do with it at all? Because... Martin just wanted to foreshadow it.
Makes sense as well and kinda even happened.
Reasonable.
Before The Forsaken was released, the vast majority of the fandom were convinced that Euron was closely tailing Victarion to Meereen.
Guilty. Guilty. Guilty. Here's a fun thing about that particular theory. That was sort-of George's original intent before he split Feast and Dance. But instead of Euron following Victarion, the original idea was that Euron invited Victarion to Slaver's Bay. From the 2003/2004 draft:
Haha yeah, that recent post about The Forsaken likely originally occurring in Meereen makes it so obvious in hindsight.
I think folk missed (and still do tbf) that GRRM ended up enjoying Victarion as a character a lot more than he was originally expecting. There's a lot of sly bits in his chapters that are really easy to overlook.
Exactly correct about GRRM suddenly finding he enjoyed writing Victarion's POV. Fans take his statements that Victarion is dumb as a stump/post as evidence that he dislikes writing Victarion. Untrue. Writing stupid characters with delusions of grandeur is amazing fun. George knows this better than most.
Look only at how this mighty Ironborn Warrior loses his shit at the monkeys that infiltrate the Iron Fleet:
And then all those amazing pronouncements that Victarion makes throughout his chapters. My favorite:
If George wasn't dying of laughter imagining Victarion's story in ADWD and having a hell of time writing it, then I'll eat my lunch.
See, I see large strain of pity running through Victarion's chapters because he's "dumb as a stump", with the explicit condemnation of him front loaded and oddly gentle.
Do you not find it odd, with the monkeys, how folk tend to identify themselves with Euron?
If I'm being fairer to our idiot pirate whose ship and fleet are possessed by demon monkeys until he does some blood magic with Moqorro, George does some pathos for Victarion -- though those pathos come through backstory revelations of moral horror -- like his memories of the wife Euron stole and likely raped and how he beat her to death.
So, I'm not sure George's treatment of Victarion is gentle. GRRM isn't writing a fairy tale of "If you act like Victarion, bad things will happen", sure. But the moral condemnation is pretty clear through the horror in those memories. As a parallel Ironborn POV, I'd make the case that George's treatment of Damphair is much more empathetic and gentle than that of Victarion.
Because what I really see in Victarion's story is that the moral horror reflects a genre truth: his story is ultimately a story of Lovecraftian Horror with Euron as the monster centering it. And yes, perhaps there's admonition by George on the reader who dismisses Victarion the same way Euron does as an idiot.
But then George ends up writing Victarion's stupidity with humor and seeming relish in ADWD.
I don't know. Where do you think the writing of Victarion is less explicit condemnation and oddly gentle?
He never mentions his wife's name...
Where Theon (Aeron isn't really condemned by the narrative) is openly humiliated and dominated by Balon and Asha for his stupidity, and just continues to be ragdolled by the narrative throughout ACOK, Victarion is condemned by the really small stuff that will easily pass you by but is constant throughout his narrative.
You end up sorry for quite literally everyone he interacts with from the Dusky Woman, Maester Kerwin, the small folk he sells into slavery, the Slaves he captures and ultimately Dany.
I view the lovecraftian stuff as just window dressing. The moral distinction between Euron and Victarion is mostly semantics.
Euron is how we often want to view villains, Victarion is a lot closer to the brutish reality (and disturbingly we all share some of his traits).
There is lots of humour in it, but its more of an amused side-eye at safe distance than brutal mockery. We're warned about viewing him as just a stupid joke:
Ah, that makes a lot of sense. The distinction in our viewpoints in Victarion is over Euron Greyjoy. You see the brothers as paralleling each other and the Lovecraftian imagery surrounding Euron as mostly optics -- or even, and correct me if I've got your perspective wrong, George paying homage to Lovecraft.
Whereas, I do think Euron possesses a uniquely horrific villainy in the narrative. The Forsaken crystallized this for me. Euron Greyjoy is the human embodiment of the (lack of) ideology of the Others. He's a cancer bent on killing its host. A plague of violence. The nihilism of Euron Greyjoy sells it for me. He' consciously adapts the window dressings of the Ironborn (thanks for the phrase!) to exact suffering and sorrow.
Three paragraphs later, Aeron has a vision of gods from every religion dead before Euron as he sits the Iron Throne, and the whole chapter recounts the atrocities Euron commits from the Shields onwards.
Now, a good counter-argument is that Victarion does some atrocities too. Burning the ship of girls as a sacrifice to R'hllor and the Drowned God is one such horrible act. My interpretation of that, though, is not that Victarion and Euron are parallels.
Rather, that as the narrative progresses, Victarion begins to model his actions after Euron Greyjoy himself. Consider how often Victarion in ADWD thinks about "WWED?" - What Would Euron Do? in his two ADWD chapters. That's my take on it.
I do really appreciate the discussion a lot. Thanks for a good back and forth. Reminds me of older days when this was more of the norm (it wasn't).
Not made for dancing, the guy who plans to dance with a dragon says. Totally won't go wrong. I love those two quoted lines, especially because the irony that the first one applies arguably as much to Euron as to Moqorro himself.
No better example than Cersei. She acts with the height of idiocy in her AFFC chapters. But it's also wildly entertaining and I'm sure was a lot of fun to write.
Similarly, before that chapter revealed Euron's badass set of armor, and moreso his statement linked here; many fans believed Euron was lying about actually going to Valyria.
The going to Valyria claim can mean anything and just opens up more questions than it answers.
What we've got is so much fucking cooler.
You may enjoy this thread from westeros.org from the 2010 timeframe of theories that fans believed in a decade and a half ago.
In my time, the theory that Benjen Stark was Coldhands was a popular theory in the early 2010s. That one was essentially disproved when a member of r/asoiaf went to the Cushing Library and found that Anne Groell (George's editor) believed this theory and asked George directly about it in a margin note. George's response:
More fun, and I'll never forget watching and reading this back in like 2013ish, but the theory that Talisa Maygyar was a Lannister spy was hot. (Props to the theorycrafter in titling the theory "Roose Change" though). That one was fairly disproved by Talisa's brutal murder in Season Three of Game of Thrones.
I remember LONG battles of quotes from the books for and against this theory on one of the forums.
It doesn't help that they went with it in the show.
That's true, but i'm 99.9% sure the threads I'm thinking of on the forum predated the show by years.
Mmm, not really. The theory preceded that in the show by many years. GRRM's "no" answer mentioned above even preceded it.
Oh I remember a certain infamous admin from Got Wiki who I shall not name making whole essays there how she's 100% Lannister spy as "nothing else would make sense." Then Red Wedding happens and... well... we saw what happened.
But it did seem there were occassional teases about it, especially in episode 7 of S3 when she goes to write the letter supposedly to her mother. Also she got visibly unsettled when Robb mentioned going to The Crag in S2 (Jeyne Westerling in novels is from the Crag). Were they intentional red herrings or just coincidence? I don't know but I do see why there might be speculation.
Honestly talisa’s brutal murder would be pretty in line with her being a spy, considering the similar fate of Dontos. The only thing making me think against it is Lannisters likely would “pay their debts” to her, but I can see Roose or especially Walder Frey going rogue from the plan and taking her out
"Benjen Stark was Coldhands"
I still believe this. Am I wrong? Probably. But still.
Until it is written into the books, I don't think it is disproven. Not that the tv show should be used as evidence for the book, but he is Coldhands there. GRRM could easily have changed his mind.
A character who is 200 years old says Coldhands was killed 'long ago'. Benjen if he even is dead has only been so for about a year. That's not long ago to anyone let alone someone as old as Leaf.
To be fair, it has now been a long time since I've last read the books lol.
It’s probably some weird combination of something more ancient warged into Benjen’s body, with some homunculus of him still inside.
I just don't think Benjen is dead so I don't think he's involved at all.
unless Coldhands is a collective of souls inhabiting a dead body and Ben is currently part of it
I did until I read from someone here the theory that Benjen warced Mormont's crow and now I prefer that one
Benjenhands
Thank you!
https://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?/topic/43203-predictions-for-the-end-of-the-series/&do=findComment&comment=2120831
Can’t wait for this person to be vindicated
The theory that Tyrek is dead. They just can't accept the fact that he's ahorse
Its been awhile but I dont remember seeing many or any theories that Joffrey sent the Catspaw. Most people thought it was Littlefinger (somehow) or Cersei.
If we are allowed events that havent happened in the books but did in the show King Bran is an obvious one. Semi famously only one (maybe two but its unverified?) person really predicted it. There were a few 'Bran becomes King of the North' theories though.
Probably because Joffrey being the culprit is indeed an insane direction to take that plot line. Reminds me of Maggie Simpson shooting Mr. Burns level of unpredictability.
That is a very good analogy.
"This past summer all of America was trying to solve the mystery of who shot Mr. Burns...then they found out it was the baby." Cough.
Better than BBC Sherlock making the culprit be a boomerang
Its not the best written twist I do agree.
It's basically not canon in my head. Just makes the story worse when I think about it
Unfortunately, when people post really intricate theories, this plot is always sort of in the back of my head. For instance, I cannot imagine GRRM being deliberate about Targaryen genealogy and Punnett squares as it relates to their ability to control dragons, and have that be in the same story with this Catspaw plot line.
I have a similar thought process.
"That can't possibly be the direction George would take this plot in. It makes no sense and is thematic garbage". But then I remember the Catspaw reveal. Some ideas may sound cooler in George's head than they do to the readers.
Maggie had a lot of foreshadowing tho, remember how Mr Burns was well established to enjoy, but have trouble stealing candy from little children lol
Not unexpected when it's a mystery that was totally botched by GRRM who put only the weakest clues (dealing with a very specific and strange motivation) in the book the mystery was most relevant to. As a result, you still have fan theories 25 years later that are "Nah, that's dumb. The REAL reveal is still yet to happen."
Who was the most common prediction? I imagine Jon or Dany, though in hindsight those feel a tad too obvious.
King on the Iron Throne? Jon and Dany. Either individually or together most theories was one of them.
Arya had a couple actually. Due to the whole 'fate of the direwolves foreshadows fate of the Starks'.
A lot of theories had the kingdoms splitting up and the Iron Throne destroyed. Dorne and Iron Islands going independent, Edric Storm ruling the Stormlands, Bran/Rickon the North and Riverlands etc.
Jon, Dany, and no one were the most common predictions. It wasn't common but I remember Sansa had a couple people arguing for her after we heard about the younger more beautiful queen.
There were some delusional people seriously predicting Stannis would win
Littlefinger sending the catspaw makes even less sense than Joffrey.
Cersei tho is the only logical option, I still believe GRRM should have gone that way.
Littlefinger has the motive, but not the means. Joffrey has the means (well, I do think it stretches credulity a bit that the child Crown Prince managed to find an assassin with nobody noticing), but less of a motive.
The motive was written in by GRRM in ASoS when most people kind of stopped caring about it. And while it makes sense for the idiot child Joffrey to do it in-universe, the narrative didn't really support it.
On the other hand, Littlefinger predicting and pulling off that assassination would have confirmed him as the greatest greenseer after 3ER.
Yeah, beyond the huge logistical issues of Littlefinger hearing out about Bran falling and being in a coma and somehow getting the dagger up there in an expeditious amount of time, there's also the problem that the Starks don't suspect that Bran is in a coma due to the Lannisters. So, Bran being murdered doesn't really advance a Stark/Lannister conflict to achieve any strategic goals (and this goes for the "Mance hired the Catspaw" theorists too), especially when the Lannisters have been gone for several weeks at the time of the attempted murder.
Yeah, this has always been a thing for me. While it's certainly possible Joffrey could have gotten his hands on one of Robert's daggers (although why it would be necessary to grab the Valyrian Steel one is just pure contrived mystery fiction), but how is Joffrey just wandering through the common people and finding one random person willing to murder the local Lord Paramount's (or whatever Ned is) child? Is Joffrey mingling with the common folk without Sandor or other protection? Did Joffrey get lucky and the first person he asked just happened to be willing AND competent to be able to pull the thing off?
It's all so ludicrous.
And the motive we DO get isn't really fleshed out until two books later, and at a point where anyone who could possibly care about the Catspaw is already dead. GRRM forgot to put many of his clues in the first book and instead put them in the book where the mystery no longer mattered. At the very least, the readers should have been able to have read the conversation where Robert allegedly talked about it being better that Bran should be killed.
Yeah. Cersei and Jaime are the only two with motive and means, and Jaime does his own killings. It should have been Cersei.
I'm not 0% on Bran becoming King but not 100% either. Lots of book theories are "disproven" in the show because the show picked something ridiculous and stupid.
Davos’s and Theon’s ”death“ ,before ASOS and ADWD published ?
With Davos, I'd have been more surprised if he indeed died in ADWD. The fact his death was just casually mentioned in AFFC and he is a POV, I was sure it didn't happen that way.
By Davos, I'm also referring to the ACOK, where it seems like he might have died in the Battle of Blackwater. But I wasn't in the fandom before ASOS came out, so I don't know if that's true.
Yeah, it's very possible that Davos could have died in the Blackwater. As far as real deaths in ASOIAF, that would have been pretty fair. We either tend to see the death from their own eyes (Catelyn, Jon, various Prologue/Epilogue characters) or from other POVs that are there to witness it firsthand (Ned, Arys Oakheart).
What we DON'T tend to have happen is hear about a POV character's death second-hand and off-screen. I think Chett might be the only exception, and it would make perfect sense in his case because his Prologue POV set up a situation where his death was quite likely even if it didn't happen in the chapter itself.
Can't speak to Theon but I'd say most of the fandom knew Davos wasn't dead.
The Reek reveal had my mind blown tbh even though on a reread it is incredibly obvious.
The other way around, Viserion being wighted had a popular following in the fandom, beginning (iirc) shortly after ADwD published. Definitely had traction years before that happened in the show.
benjen being coldhands.... the dagger being from littlefinger... and this... Many fan theories were made the "canon version" in the TV show
What? Littlefinger claims the dagger
Great post. It was interesting to see theories disproved in real time.
It’s a shame that the books won’t be finished cuz I would love to see the meltdowns from the fanbase when all their elaborate theories dont come true. Anything relating to Aegon specifically would have been very juicy to witness
It'll turn out aegon isn't a blackfyre, some random kid, illyrio's son, or rhaegar's son but is actually the lovechild of tywin and aerys
...and Moonboy for all I know!
Just look at Season 8 and you know how people will respond.
That TWOW would be released in 2014,2015,2106,2017,2108,2019,2020,2021,2022,2023,2024,2025,2026?
There's this scene in a movie called Logan Lucky, starring Channing Tatum and Adam Driver, where the Warden of a prison is basically telling the inmates he can't get TWoW for the library because it hadn't been released yet and the outraged inmate doesn't believe him because it was supposed to have been released already.
It's almost 9 years since the movie came out, since then still nothing, lol.
lol rekt
sigh
My wife and I saw it in the theaters and that was such an unexpected surprise.
Also, part of the prisoners' disbelief is because they know that the television show was still continuing past that point.
It was a fun movie. Surprise Daniel Craig was a hoot as well.
There's still time for 2106 or 2107.
Most of them TBH
I thought Sansa was gonna become a wight or white queen type thing... i thought the ling night battle would push all our cast down south towards the Reeds for their assistance and then eventually kings landing. I was wrong
That GRRM would finish Winds of Winter