Oh wow, you aren't kidding. It's like the Joe Rogan subreddit, where everyone there is really just there to bitch and complain about the subreddit's topic.
Not just hate... They obsessively hate him. It's like a political sub where all the comments are the same bitching, hardly even related to the headline. Basically taken over by r politics
It's unlike the Joe Rogan subreddit in that if you're paying attention to AI, you really CAN'T genuinely think it's doing anything but progressing at an insane rate, but if you've ever heard Joe Rogan and the people he platforms the only logical response is to hate him.
It's more about how people just spend their free time obsessively hating him. It's not about hating him, it's about the dedication of taking over a space meant to be for his fans, just so people can be total losers with nothing better to do than hate someone. It's just loser-shit.
Well there is "the real JRE" or something subreddit. It's full to the brim with wannabe tough guys, all telling each other how free thinking and rebellious they are by... listening to the most popular podcast in the world.
They're cringe and dumb as hell, but that's the market.
edit: and then you respond, then block me. guess that's on brand, too
80% min, I wouldn't be surprised to see 90% by september. Always remember, the experts are practically always wrong on AI. Scientists estimations for climate changes rate of advancement too. Whenever I see a prediction, I cut it down by a minimum of half (sometimes much more), and wallah, an uncannily accurate heuristic.
I'm looking forward to the switch flipping from confused looks to contemplative/tentative agreement when I say things like "humanity will have a Dyson Swarm project up and running within 10 years"
Currently it's "what are you talking about"
Soon it'll be "oh, uh yeah, that seems pretty reasonable"
I think we'll have AGI in 2026-7 and ASI in 2027-8 and to me your prediction is complete ass.
Look at exponential graphs too long and you will forget that there's an inherent lag due to humans.
We can have ASI in 2027, but replacing all work with ai before 2030 is irrealistic. Even with grey goo (no way we jump on it legislatively) there no way we'll have a Dyson swarm in 10 years.
I remember 4 years ago arguing with some friends that humanity could start building a space elevator in a decade.
I'm still sticking to that timeline. We're ramping up graphene production, which is a good material for the ribbon.
Between progress so far, AI, and space mining startups giving a potential real economic benefit soon...
when I say things like "humanity will have a Dyson Swarm project up and running within 10 years"
LOL, no.
Some people on this sub are way too naive about the practical bottlenecks that will keep progress from reaching the "Dyson warm in 10 years" or "immortality in 5 years" type predictions. There's way more too it than just an exponential curve of recursive self-improvement in intelligence.
For something on the scale of a Dyson Swarm, the bottlenecks include raw materials, energy, space to build things, and the more you're doing all this on outer space (e.g. asteroid mining), the more travel time comes into play. Just physically getting things from point A to point B takes time, fabricating components takes time, and assembling them takes time. With highly efficient robots doing the work, you still need to build them and build the infrastructure to energize them. One big bottleneck on both raw materials and energy is permitting and ownership: you need physical places to acquire materials or harvest energy, and many of those are in natural areas we're rightly protecting from development, or on private land with owners who don't want certain kinds of development, etc. Approval processes for big mining or energy projects might be streamlined but they aren't going away.
The immortality predictions are similarly goofy. I can tell you as a PhD mathematical biologist that it's not going to happen as quickly as many accelerationists think, if at all. I'm hoping for and expecting a massive increase in the rate of progress of medical research, but that whole endeavor is seriously bottlenecked by the time required to run experiments. No AI, no matter how smart, will be able to work around that, because biological systems are too complex for even the smartest imaginable ASI to fully solve on theoretical grounds: it will frequently face questions on which multiple hypotheses are valid given all known data, and the only resolution is to collect more data. Then you need time for the cells, fruit flies, or mice to grow and respond to the experiment, and only then can you analyze the data and move forward to the next questions, which will require more experiments. Even with a virtually perfect system for designing, performing, and analyzing fruitful experiments, bottlenecks like this mean it's going to take a while even for ASI to "solve" biology.
All of these things could be happening dramatically more efficiently than they are today, and your timeline would still be ludicrous. And insofar as we can rapidly acquire materials and energy and build out self-replicating ASI robot infrastructure, that whole system is still going to have to prioritize those resources and not just accomplish every futurist dream at once.
This is precisely why Demis and his team are working on the virtual cell to skip the bottlenecks of the real world, with infinite simulations that are accurate enough. AlphaFold was a step change. You don't need quantum computers to solve biology, it's all patterns.
Many companies are working on automatic scientific research too soon. Idk your sources but you seem so far behind, thinking this is all decades away somehow.
Comment TLDR: The commenter disagrees with the idea of a Dyson Swarm being built in 10 years. They believe that accelerationists are naive about practical bottlenecks like raw materials, energy, and travel time. Even with efficient robots, building infrastructure and acquiring resources will take time. They also dismiss immortality predictions, stating that biological experiments require time, regardless of AI advancements. Solving biology theoretically is impossible due to the complexity of biological systems, requiring ongoing data collection.
I g the proper approach to predictions in regards to ai is that we cant feasibly see beyond probably 2 years at most and im probably being generous, there are just too many variables at play for anyone to quantify properly if even at all in regards to exponential progress. I can confidently say asi wont emerge tomorrow. Probably not in a month. Kinda confidently not a year. Two years later? No idea honestly. And i think any claim saying the oposite either has inside information or theyre playing on vibes. Which is fun and all but not practical, although I'd eer on the side of caution in regards to "no because xyz" since we are effectively too dumb to predict things at this scale.
My point isn't about the timeline for ASI, but pointing out the fact that even ASI won't be able to solve all problems and build everything we want overnight. Some thing unavoidably take time, no matter how much intelligence is involved.
💬 Discussion Summary (20+ comments): Acceleration is evident, with some believing AI progress is ahead of schedule and predicting significant milestones by 2026. Contrasting views suggest current models are declining in quality, possibly masking true advancements or driven by hype, while others question OpenAI's financial viability despite progress.
take a look online claude code 4.5 opus hit some sort of inflection point. Like things have gone from... useful but doesn't quite get it.. to cross a threshold where the model knows what you want.. and how to pull it off in a pattern that sensible
Damn the AGI subreddit comments are always so ass
For real. Genuinely so embarrassing
Oh wow, you aren't kidding. It's like the Joe Rogan subreddit, where everyone there is really just there to bitch and complain about the subreddit's topic.
the joe rogan subreddit hates joe rogan?
Not just hate... They obsessively hate him. It's like a political sub where all the comments are the same bitching, hardly even related to the headline. Basically taken over by r politics
Same as the Ricky Gervais subreddit
It's unlike the Joe Rogan subreddit in that if you're paying attention to AI, you really CAN'T genuinely think it's doing anything but progressing at an insane rate, but if you've ever heard Joe Rogan and the people he platforms the only logical response is to hate him.
It's more about how people just spend their free time obsessively hating him. It's not about hating him, it's about the dedication of taking over a space meant to be for his fans, just so people can be total losers with nothing better to do than hate someone. It's just loser-shit.
Well there is "the real JRE" or something subreddit. It's full to the brim with wannabe tough guys, all telling each other how free thinking and rebellious they are by... listening to the most popular podcast in the world.
They're cringe and dumb as hell, but that's the market.
edit: and then you respond, then block me. guess that's on brand, too
Excellent. Best way to begin the morning.
Every time this happens it validates that acceleration is real, and it is happening everywhere you look.
I'd bet a model hits 70% by end of 2026.
80% min, I wouldn't be surprised to see 90% by september. Always remember, the experts are practically always wrong on AI. Scientists estimations for climate changes rate of advancement too. Whenever I see a prediction, I cut it down by a minimum of half (sometimes much more), and wallah, an uncannily accurate heuristic.
Agreed
With this proof. We are 5 years ahead of schedule.
I'm looking forward to the switch flipping from confused looks to contemplative/tentative agreement when I say things like "humanity will have a Dyson Swarm project up and running within 10 years"
Currently it's "what are you talking about"
Soon it'll be "oh, uh yeah, that seems pretty reasonable"
I think we'll have AGI in 2026-7 and ASI in 2027-8 and to me your prediction is complete ass.
Look at exponential graphs too long and you will forget that there's an inherent lag due to humans.
We can have ASI in 2027, but replacing all work with ai before 2030 is irrealistic. Even with grey goo (no way we jump on it legislatively) there no way we'll have a Dyson swarm in 10 years.
At some point, AI doesn't wait on humans. There is no more lag, and to me, that's where the singularity is.
I remember 4 years ago arguing with some friends that humanity could start building a space elevator in a decade.
I'm still sticking to that timeline. We're ramping up graphene production, which is a good material for the ribbon.
Between progress so far, AI, and space mining startups giving a potential real economic benefit soon...
LOL, no.
Some people on this sub are way too naive about the practical bottlenecks that will keep progress from reaching the "Dyson warm in 10 years" or "immortality in 5 years" type predictions. There's way more too it than just an exponential curve of recursive self-improvement in intelligence.
For something on the scale of a Dyson Swarm, the bottlenecks include raw materials, energy, space to build things, and the more you're doing all this on outer space (e.g. asteroid mining), the more travel time comes into play. Just physically getting things from point A to point B takes time, fabricating components takes time, and assembling them takes time. With highly efficient robots doing the work, you still need to build them and build the infrastructure to energize them. One big bottleneck on both raw materials and energy is permitting and ownership: you need physical places to acquire materials or harvest energy, and many of those are in natural areas we're rightly protecting from development, or on private land with owners who don't want certain kinds of development, etc. Approval processes for big mining or energy projects might be streamlined but they aren't going away.
The immortality predictions are similarly goofy. I can tell you as a PhD mathematical biologist that it's not going to happen as quickly as many accelerationists think, if at all. I'm hoping for and expecting a massive increase in the rate of progress of medical research, but that whole endeavor is seriously bottlenecked by the time required to run experiments. No AI, no matter how smart, will be able to work around that, because biological systems are too complex for even the smartest imaginable ASI to fully solve on theoretical grounds: it will frequently face questions on which multiple hypotheses are valid given all known data, and the only resolution is to collect more data. Then you need time for the cells, fruit flies, or mice to grow and respond to the experiment, and only then can you analyze the data and move forward to the next questions, which will require more experiments. Even with a virtually perfect system for designing, performing, and analyzing fruitful experiments, bottlenecks like this mean it's going to take a while even for ASI to "solve" biology.
All of these things could be happening dramatically more efficiently than they are today, and your timeline would still be ludicrous. And insofar as we can rapidly acquire materials and energy and build out self-replicating ASI robot infrastructure, that whole system is still going to have to prioritize those resources and not just accomplish every futurist dream at once.
This is precisely why Demis and his team are working on the virtual cell to skip the bottlenecks of the real world, with infinite simulations that are accurate enough. AlphaFold was a step change. You don't need quantum computers to solve biology, it's all patterns.
Many companies are working on automatic scientific research too soon. Idk your sources but you seem so far behind, thinking this is all decades away somehow.
Comment TLDR: The commenter disagrees with the idea of a Dyson Swarm being built in 10 years. They believe that accelerationists are naive about practical bottlenecks like raw materials, energy, and travel time. Even with efficient robots, building infrastructure and acquiring resources will take time. They also dismiss immortality predictions, stating that biological experiments require time, regardless of AI advancements. Solving biology theoretically is impossible due to the complexity of biological systems, requiring ongoing data collection.
I don't think you fully understand what an ASI is.
No, you don't understand it. You just imagine it.
Not really. I base my understanding of ASI on other peoples explanations of it.
I g the proper approach to predictions in regards to ai is that we cant feasibly see beyond probably 2 years at most and im probably being generous, there are just too many variables at play for anyone to quantify properly if even at all in regards to exponential progress. I can confidently say asi wont emerge tomorrow. Probably not in a month. Kinda confidently not a year. Two years later? No idea honestly. And i think any claim saying the oposite either has inside information or theyre playing on vibes. Which is fun and all but not practical, although I'd eer on the side of caution in regards to "no because xyz" since we are effectively too dumb to predict things at this scale.
My point isn't about the timeline for ASI, but pointing out the fact that even ASI won't be able to solve all problems and build everything we want overnight. Some thing unavoidably take time, no matter how much intelligence is involved.
This just in, meat sacks don't understand why the rocks they taught to think are getting so smart
💬 Discussion Summary (20+ comments): Acceleration is evident, with some believing AI progress is ahead of schedule and predicting significant milestones by 2026. Contrasting views suggest current models are declining in quality, possibly masking true advancements or driven by hype, while others question OpenAI's financial viability despite progress.
In case anyone needs links:
How are they unironically talking about 2030? Most benchmarks don't last the year, let alone four. This one will be saturated before end of year.
I mean sure, but if I understand it correctly that x-axis shows so much more time difference than is actually happening cause wtf is that bruv
And yet, OpenAI still won't have AGI in time to save them from their financial reality.
This graph is terrible
[removed]
ah... no
take a look online claude code 4.5 opus hit some sort of inflection point. Like things have gone from... useful but doesn't quite get it.. to cross a threshold where the model knows what you want.. and how to pull it off in a pattern that sensible
'Think' he knows what I want. I am sorry but I didn't sensed that with any of the models, yet.
Wut lol
It sounds like the ones saying that are the ones that are dumber now than two years ago.