I think the bad weather and fog really pushed things over the edge. I'm sure that the city would have fallen eventually but every video for the last month or so looked foggy and rainy which is not good for drones but very good for infiltration groups.
The other thing to keep in mind is that after the pocket is resolved there would instantly be a very large number of Russian troops who are freed up for other assignments.
There will be a hard push on Ukraine's lines very soon after the city is cleared.
They won't have had a large force used to take the city, that's why they're relying on glide bombs so much, they're erasing every potential manned position so they don't need to assault them. Once the pocket is fully reduced, whatever force is used up clear the city will be needed to keep going north.
That direction it's hugely important for the Russians if they intend to take Sloviansk-Kramatorsk without a frontal assault, they need to keep working north to form a left pincer, with the right emanating from around Lyman. The left pincer will best originate from the T0514 highway, which is quite a bit north of Pokrovsk.
That's why the Russians were so eager to hold onto the Dobropillya Salient from August to November, that was already nearly at the T0514 highway. But having lost it, 2nd and 51st CAA will have lots of pressure to move, as the entire Russian effort to take the rest of Donetsk Oblast really falls on them advancing quite a bit.
If anything, they'll need up divert even more units there, because right now 2nd CAA and 51st CAA both are having issues advancing. The former can't get into Hryshyne and the latter can't get into Nove Shakhove.
The best benefit of finishing off the Myrnograd pocket will be the recon drone missions and SU-34 sorties that can be rerouted to work targets immediately northward.
What I can't understand is why Ukrainians were counter attacking at Kupyansk instead of Lyman or reinforcing Pokrovsk direction back then?
Why move troops to Myrnograd instead of blocking the Pokrovsk movement?
Is 3rd assault brigade or that whole corps now under any command from Syrskyi or anyone else for that matter?
Why crate new brigades if your existing ones are so undermanned?
etc.
This whole situation makes very little sense to me for two and a half months now. It's not like the Russians are doing anything whatsoever unpredictable.
2025 was supposed to be the year the Russian offensives culminated. Line of Drones was supposed to kill so many Russians that they'd lose the ability to even exist within 20 km of the AFU. And that was supposed to make the AFU infantry crisis not a concern. That would stabilize the ground war while the deep strike campaign was supposed to threaten the Russian economy enough for Putin to effectively surrender.
It didn't go that way, but it wasnt worst case scenario either. Kursk went to shit, then they were losing ground in Sumy, Pokrovsk was getting worse. The expected "Big Summer Offensive" didn't go well,b but not horribly. Early summer saw Ukraine losing mostly around Pokrovsk and Kupyansk. They mostly committed to the former. Because Kupyansk wasn't prioritized, the Russians there kept gaining. At Pokrovsk, despite that being the Ukrainian main effort, they still couldn't stop the Russians moving into Pokrovsk or encircling Myrnograd, but they did slow it down. But neither of those went to shit until the fall, which was why by late August the Ukrainians were celebrating having defeated the Russian summer offensive.
Ukraine was pretty aggressively counterattacking in Kupyansk since September but never in large scale. The recent counteroffensive, which is probably a better description of what that was since it was corps sized and along a pretty wide front, would have required reinforcements. Which probably didn't get transferred until the Gerasimov-Putin celebratory announcement weeks ago , because that offensive is a PR campaign to undermine Putin and show Ukrainian resolve, and make Zelensky-Syrsky look less incompetent (Syrsky was about to get fired, probably not anymore, Kupyansk just saved his job for the time being).
Meanwhile, Ukraine was counterattacking all along the Pokrovsk direction since mid November when the situation went to shit. Note, that counterattack also happened immediately after Gerasimov-Putin declared Pokrovsk-Myrnograd encircled, on Oct 26. Then a big counterattack was ordered, it kicked off on Oct 31, and a few days into it, Nov 4, Zelensky showed up at a forward command post for photo ops.
There were already Ukrainian troops defending Myrnograd, but those that were in Pokrovsk were largely driven out, killed, or captured. Counterattacks are sending offensive units into Pokrovsk, but also Rodynske too. Attempts to reopen supply lines to Myrnograd failed, but they apparently can still resupply them with drones, which isn't odd, as most front line positions are now resupplied by drones. The Ukrainians won't stop counterattacks because then they must admit they lost the cities. And again, this war is ENTIRELY about PR for UA leadership, they won't do that.
3rd Assault Bde of the AFU is somewhere from Lyman to Kupyansk. Probably all over the place, as most maneuver brigades are split up.
3rd Corps is specifically defending Kupyansk. 7th Corps is in command of the Pokrovsk direction, 1st Corps controls from around Rodynske to past Shakhove.
The pro to create new brigades is to have more reserves, plus, they allow the use of all the NATO equipment being flooded to Ukraine. But there aren't many brand new maneuver brigades being created nowadays, mostly existing ones being scaled up in size. The con of creating new units or expanding a few existing is what's happened, most of the existing become weakened.
But while it's detrimental, it's not blown up in their faces yet and for every failure where they're about to get in trouble for their incompetence they end up pulling up a PR victory and the doubters are silenced for a bit more, buying time they hope to use for Russia's economy to collapse or for Trump to decide to go all in supporting Ukraine for the big win.
I've heard multiple reports that up to 150k Russian troops and 40% of all FAB strikes are focused on and around that pocket.
So yes resources and manpower should be freed up but also importantly is all the infrastructure in that pocket that can be used to hide equipment and men for logistics and staging attacks.
All of this is reinforced by the effects of long term attritiona warfare causing the UAF to collapse, which is clearly accelerated and the rate is increasing.
I'd expect square kms captured to continue increase at more and more of an accelerated rate as the UAF continues to break down.
That’s kind of his gimmick. He normally early and jumps the gun on things but he’s not explicitly wrong. Take this for example; the same sources might be saying the same things to both Suriyak and Kalibrared it’s just Ayden’s called the city captured, knowing that more verifiable claims will come, while the more conservative Suriyak has declared it grey zone waiting for those verified claims.
Russia should take a good, long hard look at what it did this war to discourage UA soldiers from surrendering. This is really dumb, with one culture and one language, Ukrainian soldiers should be surrendering much more often, there is very little possibility for miscommunication or misunderstandings compared to other wars.
Ukraine tells conscripts that while surrender is possible along some sectors of the front, nobody in this sector takes prisoners, and capture is just a prelude to torture.
Conscripts are often banned from bringing white items with them into trenches, to prevent them from doing something stupid in a moment of weakness.
Ukraine doesn't officially use barrier troops, but veteran units are placed behind the conscript positions, and it's explained that Russian DRG groups are infiltrating in UFA uniforms, so the non-barrier troops have orders to fire on sight. If you need to retreat, make sure you get permission first - otherwise you'll be shot by accident.
Then they're promised that they'll be relieved in just a few days, so the safest best is to just dig in and hold positions for now. Their applications to be cooks and drivers will likely be approved very soon.
Oh, and the field ahead of you is mined, so don't advance without current maps.
Then they're promised that they'll be relieved in just a few days, so the safest best is to just dig in and hold positions for now. Their applications to be cooks and drivers will likely be approved very soon.
The same stories show up over and over again. UFA has over 15000 cases of people going AWOL every month (they've started classifying the precise numbers as of November). These aren't all refuseniks - many of them just get tired of being lied to and left to fend for themselves. They run away and ask to join a buddy's batallion when they get caught, because their commander is a lazy ass who doesn't rotate you when he says he will, and doesn't process your requests for a transfer to a different unit.
This has become so common, Syrskji just passed a new regulation - if you go AWOL, no request for a transfer will be accepted - you're instantly sent to an assault unit instead.
The troops have anti surrender orders. The orders give them the right to "compel" fellow soldiers not to surrender using any means necessary including even lethal force.
This means you gotta make sure your whole unit wants to surrender or you keep it to yourself....they will immediately call you a coward and isolate you otherwise
On the situation in the Pokrovsk Agglomeration area.
"I saw how our subunits are advancing closer to the city center. The operation is ongoing; we're saturating the city with our forces and, importantly, fortifying our positions. I won't say the offensive has weakened, but we've managed to take control of the points through which they enter. The soldiers say that fully regaining control of Pokrovsk right now is impossible, but holding it in its current state – yes. Russian drones are paralyzing logistics even more than in Kupiansk. Sometimes it takes a group 2-3 days to enter because they have to wait out drone strikes in hiding spots. I saw the evacuation of the wounded by vehicles – that's a good sign that the supply routes are somehow functioning. (...) In Myrnohrad, the situation is tougher due to limited logistics (basically one road), but our troops are holding the center. If Myrnohrad falls, Pokrovsk falls, and vice versa. That's why both cities must be held simultaneously."
Hard to say considering I’ve never been a soldier. I imagine the thought process is varied among the soldiers as with anything. Love of country, hatred of the enemy, etc.
There is no communication so they are told to hold and most do. They do not all know that they are surrounded and it is completely hopeless. The high command of Ukraine tells them nothing and wants them to die fighting to buy more time.
Maybe also after seeing so many friends and team mates die, people get desensitized to death and lose the value of living. Just guessing, never been there and I hope I never will.
Interesting the way attrition works when taking a city.
Months of slow progress and then the twin cities fell so quickly once the UAF broke
I think the bad weather and fog really pushed things over the edge. I'm sure that the city would have fallen eventually but every video for the last month or so looked foggy and rainy which is not good for drones but very good for infiltration groups.
That's what is going to eventually happen on the country's scale.
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The other thing to keep in mind is that after the pocket is resolved there would instantly be a very large number of Russian troops who are freed up for other assignments.
There will be a hard push on Ukraine's lines very soon after the city is cleared.
They won't have had a large force used to take the city, that's why they're relying on glide bombs so much, they're erasing every potential manned position so they don't need to assault them. Once the pocket is fully reduced, whatever force is used up clear the city will be needed to keep going north.
That direction it's hugely important for the Russians if they intend to take Sloviansk-Kramatorsk without a frontal assault, they need to keep working north to form a left pincer, with the right emanating from around Lyman. The left pincer will best originate from the T0514 highway, which is quite a bit north of Pokrovsk.
That's why the Russians were so eager to hold onto the Dobropillya Salient from August to November, that was already nearly at the T0514 highway. But having lost it, 2nd and 51st CAA will have lots of pressure to move, as the entire Russian effort to take the rest of Donetsk Oblast really falls on them advancing quite a bit.
If anything, they'll need up divert even more units there, because right now 2nd CAA and 51st CAA both are having issues advancing. The former can't get into Hryshyne and the latter can't get into Nove Shakhove.
The best benefit of finishing off the Myrnograd pocket will be the recon drone missions and SU-34 sorties that can be rerouted to work targets immediately northward.
What I can't understand is why Ukrainians were counter attacking at Kupyansk instead of Lyman or reinforcing Pokrovsk direction back then?
Why move troops to Myrnograd instead of blocking the Pokrovsk movement?
Is 3rd assault brigade or that whole corps now under any command from Syrskyi or anyone else for that matter? Why crate new brigades if your existing ones are so undermanned? etc.
This whole situation makes very little sense to me for two and a half months now. It's not like the Russians are doing anything whatsoever unpredictable.
2025 was supposed to be the year the Russian offensives culminated. Line of Drones was supposed to kill so many Russians that they'd lose the ability to even exist within 20 km of the AFU. And that was supposed to make the AFU infantry crisis not a concern. That would stabilize the ground war while the deep strike campaign was supposed to threaten the Russian economy enough for Putin to effectively surrender.
It didn't go that way, but it wasnt worst case scenario either. Kursk went to shit, then they were losing ground in Sumy, Pokrovsk was getting worse. The expected "Big Summer Offensive" didn't go well,b but not horribly. Early summer saw Ukraine losing mostly around Pokrovsk and Kupyansk. They mostly committed to the former. Because Kupyansk wasn't prioritized, the Russians there kept gaining. At Pokrovsk, despite that being the Ukrainian main effort, they still couldn't stop the Russians moving into Pokrovsk or encircling Myrnograd, but they did slow it down. But neither of those went to shit until the fall, which was why by late August the Ukrainians were celebrating having defeated the Russian summer offensive.
Ukraine was pretty aggressively counterattacking in Kupyansk since September but never in large scale. The recent counteroffensive, which is probably a better description of what that was since it was corps sized and along a pretty wide front, would have required reinforcements. Which probably didn't get transferred until the Gerasimov-Putin celebratory announcement weeks ago , because that offensive is a PR campaign to undermine Putin and show Ukrainian resolve, and make Zelensky-Syrsky look less incompetent (Syrsky was about to get fired, probably not anymore, Kupyansk just saved his job for the time being).
Meanwhile, Ukraine was counterattacking all along the Pokrovsk direction since mid November when the situation went to shit. Note, that counterattack also happened immediately after Gerasimov-Putin declared Pokrovsk-Myrnograd encircled, on Oct 26. Then a big counterattack was ordered, it kicked off on Oct 31, and a few days into it, Nov 4, Zelensky showed up at a forward command post for photo ops.
There were already Ukrainian troops defending Myrnograd, but those that were in Pokrovsk were largely driven out, killed, or captured. Counterattacks are sending offensive units into Pokrovsk, but also Rodynske too. Attempts to reopen supply lines to Myrnograd failed, but they apparently can still resupply them with drones, which isn't odd, as most front line positions are now resupplied by drones. The Ukrainians won't stop counterattacks because then they must admit they lost the cities. And again, this war is ENTIRELY about PR for UA leadership, they won't do that.
3rd Assault Bde of the AFU is somewhere from Lyman to Kupyansk. Probably all over the place, as most maneuver brigades are split up.
3rd Corps is specifically defending Kupyansk. 7th Corps is in command of the Pokrovsk direction, 1st Corps controls from around Rodynske to past Shakhove.
The pro to create new brigades is to have more reserves, plus, they allow the use of all the NATO equipment being flooded to Ukraine. But there aren't many brand new maneuver brigades being created nowadays, mostly existing ones being scaled up in size. The con of creating new units or expanding a few existing is what's happened, most of the existing become weakened.
But while it's detrimental, it's not blown up in their faces yet and for every failure where they're about to get in trouble for their incompetence they end up pulling up a PR victory and the doubters are silenced for a bit more, buying time they hope to use for Russia's economy to collapse or for Trump to decide to go all in supporting Ukraine for the big win.
This is a good point.
I've heard multiple reports that up to 150k Russian troops and 40% of all FAB strikes are focused on and around that pocket.
So yes resources and manpower should be freed up but also importantly is all the infrastructure in that pocket that can be used to hide equipment and men for logistics and staging attacks.
All of this is reinforced by the effects of long term attritiona warfare causing the UAF to collapse, which is clearly accelerated and the rate is increasing.
I'd expect square kms captured to continue increase at more and more of an accelerated rate as the UAF continues to break down.
Seems Kalibrated was right.
That’s kind of his gimmick. He normally early and jumps the gun on things but he’s not explicitly wrong. Take this for example; the same sources might be saying the same things to both Suriyak and Kalibrared it’s just Ayden’s called the city captured, knowing that more verifiable claims will come, while the more conservative Suriyak has declared it grey zone waiting for those verified claims.
Kalibrated does not wait for confirmation from several sources. That is faster, but percent of mistakes is significantly higher.
Why would troops that have no prospect of ever getting out of this encirclement just continue resisting? For what?
I would like to think that if an honor thing, but probably it's fear to be executed by Russians or by their own while attempting to surrender
Also maybe they have the hope to pull a Mariupol and hold until peace is signed and a "humanitarian corridor" is open for a safe surrender
Russia should take a good, long hard look at what it did this war to discourage UA soldiers from surrendering. This is really dumb, with one culture and one language, Ukrainian soldiers should be surrendering much more often, there is very little possibility for miscommunication or misunderstandings compared to other wars.
Ukraine tells conscripts that while surrender is possible along some sectors of the front, nobody in this sector takes prisoners, and capture is just a prelude to torture.
Conscripts are often banned from bringing white items with them into trenches, to prevent them from doing something stupid in a moment of weakness.
Ukraine doesn't officially use barrier troops, but veteran units are placed behind the conscript positions, and it's explained that Russian DRG groups are infiltrating in UFA uniforms, so the non-barrier troops have orders to fire on sight. If you need to retreat, make sure you get permission first - otherwise you'll be shot by accident.
Then they're promised that they'll be relieved in just a few days, so the safest best is to just dig in and hold positions for now. Their applications to be cooks and drivers will likely be approved very soon.
Oh, and the field ahead of you is mined, so don't advance without current maps.
What is your source that they're being told this?
The same stories show up over and over again. UFA has over 15000 cases of people going AWOL every month (they've started classifying the precise numbers as of November). These aren't all refuseniks - many of them just get tired of being lied to and left to fend for themselves. They run away and ask to join a buddy's batallion when they get caught, because their commander is a lazy ass who doesn't rotate you when he says he will, and doesn't process your requests for a transfer to a different unit.
This has become so common, Syrskji just passed a new regulation - if you go AWOL, no request for a transfer will be accepted - you're instantly sent to an assault unit instead.
The troops have anti surrender orders. The orders give them the right to "compel" fellow soldiers not to surrender using any means necessary including even lethal force.
This means you gotta make sure your whole unit wants to surrender or you keep it to yourself....they will immediately call you a coward and isolate you otherwise
Source?
Per a Ukrainian military correspondent:
https://x.com/Thorkill65/status/2001328642538819837
At a minimum, the Ukrainians themselves don't believe the situation is that bleak.
What was the correspondents name?
Yulia Kirilenko
Oh, eh
Hard to say considering I’ve never been a soldier. I imagine the thought process is varied among the soldiers as with anything. Love of country, hatred of the enemy, etc.
There is no communication so they are told to hold and most do. They do not all know that they are surrounded and it is completely hopeless. The high command of Ukraine tells them nothing and wants them to die fighting to buy more time.
Maybe also after seeing so many friends and team mates die, people get desensitized to death and lose the value of living. Just guessing, never been there and I hope I never will.