The 22nd amendment limiting presidents to only two terms was introduced after President Franklin Delano Roosevelt broke tradition to run for a 3rd term and then a 4th term.
Which presidents would likely have been re-elected without term limits and for how many terms?
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I'd argue that Bill Clinton (who had a high approval ratings in 2000) would likely have been re-elected in 2000. 9/11 would probably still occur which give him a boost in support due to the "rally to the flag" effect, so I believe he would be re-elected in 2004, and then he'd likely lose horribly in 2008 due to the recession. Or he'd even see it coming and decide not to run for re-election to avoid having to face a humiliating election loss.
Yeah I think Clinton would’ve stepped down in 2008, but he still could’ve won with the recession (without the Iraq war).
Clinton took the threat from Al qaeda seriously had one meeting per week specifically on AQ/the hunt for UBL. He ordered assassination attempt on bin Laden multiple times.
W Bush had zero high level meetings on the threat during the 9 months leading up to 9/11. He also brushed off warnings from the intel community that something big was brewing. A cia analyst flew out to bush’s ranch in August 2001 to hand deliver a report titled “al qaeda determined to strike inside US” and bush told the guy he had covered his ass now.
There is a good chance a Clinton or Gore presidency could have prevented 9/11.
Sure would have. Gore was far less dumb than bush. Additionally, Bush was hanging out taking a vacation on his ranch for SIX weeks when he was given intel about a possible attack.
Clinton was not the lion of anti-terrorism you are trying to claim, and the attempts to paint him as such are open revisionism.
He notably never met with his DCI at all (CIA was and is the point foreign counter terror service), and notably refused to kill bin Laden on multiple occasions due to potential collateral damage.
The other fundamental problem you are ignoring is that outside of DoD the leadership of the IC did not change between Clinton and Bush—the DCI, FBI Director, NSA Director, etc. were all still in place in the leadup to 9/11 and none of them were showing any great interest or alarm in it—and there is no basis whatsoever for the claim that that would have been different under Clinton or Gore.
Sure there is. Bush was hanging out on his ranch for SIX weeks taking a vacation on the job. Gore most certainly would not have been.
It is highly unlikely Gore would take a 6 week vacation with his opponent at their ranch.
I’m noting a distinct lack of anything other than baseless supposition stemming from results based reasoning. I also note that there is nothing even remotely resembling a rebuttal here, which confirms that you are trolling. Goodbye.
Why would 911 still happen? I feel like another attack may have happened, but hadn’t Clinton’s administration already made Bush aware of the desires of such an attack. Similarly, hadn’t the Obama administration laid out a pandemic response plan and team that was dismantled by Trump. I just am not certain that these disasters reach the scale they did under different leadership.
As an additional thought, do we go to war in Iraq?
There was no turnover whatsoever in the IC leadership (FBI, CIA, DIA, NSA) between Clinton and Bush until Freeh left the FBI in June of 2001.
The idea that everyone knew something was going to happen and Bush just ignored it is bordering on a conspiracy theory, especially in light of the fact that despite what the internet wants to believe there were not any detected indications of an impending attack.
I think most people are relying on Bush saying when given the PDB titled Bin Laden Determined to Strike in the US "all right, you've covered your ass, goodbys"
The counterpoint to that is Clinton directly stating (on the morning of 9/11 nonetheless) that he declined to authorize a strike that would have killed bin Laden in December of 1998 because he was concerned about potential collateral damage.
The fact that everyone knows about the PDB incident but not the Clinton statement is a huge part of the problem, as is the general ignorance as to just how incompetent (and ignorant) the US was as far as combating international terrorism pre-9/11.
Assuming there would have been a recession in 2008.
The recession was caused by Clinton era policies that Bush continued as far as encouraging the loosening of requirements for mortgages and thus increase home ownership. Unless you end those policies (and due to their popularity neither party was going to be willing to do so) you get a recession in the 2007-2010 period regardless of who the President is or which party held Congress.
Eisenhower, Reagan, Clinton, Obama are the only modern ones, with Eisenhower and Clinton lasting until their deaths. Obama would probably get voted out in 2020 during COVID. Reagan would also lose in 1992 for the same reasons HW Bush does.
There also was a 2-term precedent already before FDR. I’m sure all 3 Virginia Founders would also last a very long time as it already represents one continuous dynasty with clear successors each time. Jefferson would’ve lasted until death, Madison would have too, and Monroe was the most popular of them all and he’d have no problem there. Jackson would’ve won another one and then lost in 1840 after the panic of 1837. Grant would’ve won had he not said no in 1876, but would’ve lost in 1880 to Randall, John Kelly, Bayard, WSH or Hendricks. Or maybe even primaried by James Blaine or John Sherman in 1880, which would have been very possible, leading to someone like Garfield getting nominated if the Stalwarts were still popular enough to deadlock the convention.
Teddy Roosevelt would’ve lasted until death and same with his cousin Franklin, but Wilson would have lost in 1920 given its outcome.
Covid was the perfect chamce for a rally round the flag effect. Had Trump just gone on TV and said something along the lines of there's a big bad virus coming out of China, i've assembled a team of the best people to get through it and then given out the advice from the health team he'd have been reelected. Most other countries saw a bump in the approval rating of their incumbents at least temporarily
Trump could have made a mint selling red facemasks embroidered with patriotic slogans, if only he had a shred of business acumen.
I agree that the aspect of fighting the pandemic would favor an incumbent Obama, but the recession that came with it wouldn’t help electorally. People voted against Biden bc of the economy and he had the greatest economic policy since FDR. It was gonna be tough to win as an incumbent president in either of those 2 elections regardless of who’s the president
Yeah i reckon he would then go on to lose 2024 due to the resultant recession but the timing of the 2020 election is still during the early days of the pandemic.
Yes, 2020 was very early but the feelings were kinda off that year, maybe Trump was a part of that though given the whole June, 2020 shenanigans and demonizing people who want to stop police brutality. Let’s play out the scenario where Obama is incumbent. He doesn’t have Congress bc the blue wave in 2018 doesn’t happen or it’s much weaker but he definitely doesn’t have the senate. He still puts 2 justices to the court which is good. He tried to stop the Russian invasion into the Donbas in 2018, he leaves NAFTA but has a better replacement than USMCA, he doesn’t kill solemani or ever elevates tensions with Iran, and he doesn’t withdraw troops from Syria. He never makes the timeline deal with the Taliban bc he never increases troops and drone strikes there in 2017. So Afghanistan withdrawal isn’t a disaster. He goes for a public option which fails bc of Mitch McConnell, and he really can’t accomplish anything domestically- until Covid hits. Congress approves his stimulus, and the vaccine creation also. He didn’t dissolve the pandemic response task force in 2018 so there are fewer deaths. The George Floyd protests don’t look good for Obama tho with many conservative pundits including Donald Trump calling it crazy and liberals look bad, which a racist campaign can play into those grievances in voters. But it doesn’t work and the Democratic Party does very well nationally. But unfortunately, the primary challenge in 2020 from Bernie sanders doesn’t help at all and 25% of his primary voters in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania vote republican for president in the general but democratic in every other race. So the race is lost. And unfortunately the economy in 2020 was weak in the months leading up to the election.
Thank you. Joe Biden was a gift and the best economic policy since FDR. I’ve said exactly this on here multiple times and I’m happy to finally see someone else say it for the first time. Joe Biden have us a chance to compete with China on arteries, solar, wind, and EVs.
Yes, for sure! And the best domestic agenda since LBJ, even if a lot of it failed (FU Manchin and Sinema). I’m a little surprised I’m one of the first you’ve seen that have said this tho as I feel like it should be a mainstream opinion in a sub that I feel is more sophisticated than most, but tbh I never come here
You can argue about CHIPS and the other assorted recovery bills such as BBB, but you cannot ignore that a huge piece of Biden’s economic policy was pump priming during the pandemic at a level that even Keynes would have blushed at.
You cannot separate the two, and while the infrastructure and recovery stuff may have been great policy, the pump priming is one of the major causes of the current CoL crisis due to the inflation that it caused.
Im sry what does col mean
The inflation reduction is probably my favorite of the legislation passed by Biden, and for the reduced prescription drug costs. The PACT act is another good one
Without a Republican moron in charge COVID doesn't become a pandemic, it would just be another footnote virus coming out of China.
Idk it was spreading insanely fast in the entire world. It wasn’t a footnote virus it’s one of the deadliest pandemic’s in history and no US president could change that
IIRC it was a pretty big deal in Italy well before it arrived in North America.
In recent times, the only two that come to mind who could have gotten a third term are Reagan and Obama.
The 2 term maximum was a long-time tradition established by George Washington and regarded as essentially a limit. Many presidents in the 19th & 20th centuries were popular enough but chose to honor the tradition. When FDR ran for a third and then fourth term it was because we were at War (a real, declared War) and even so he was widely criticized.
I doubt any president since, up to now, would have run for a third term had the legal limit not have been officially imposed. Also, both Eisenhower & Reagan were ill, Clinton needed money, we'd had enough Bush, Obama would have faced a family mutiny.
Reagan, Clinton, and Obama come to mind. HW Bush was essentially Reagans 3rd term. And Al gore was gonna be Clinton's 3rd term had he won(and some would argue he DID win). Even at the end, Obama's popularity never really dipped, people just didn't turn out for Hillary against [redacted because of rule 3].
Obama, Clinton and Reagan would likely have been elected to a 3rd term but a 4th term would have been less likely.
How old are you? All of these read like you read the one paragraph summary of each of these.
Obama would be reelected forever.
Very few presidents in living memory have felt like presidents.
Nixon was before my time but he felt like a mob boss.
Jimmy Carter felt like a bumbling fool.
Ronald Reagan was an actor and a puppet of the Rich.
Bill Clinton was a horny boy.
George Bush Senior did feel like a president, although obviously he was working for the billionaires.
George Bush senior came across like a. Goofy dumbass puppet of the VP.
Barack Obama was a normal honorable intelligent man who carried himself with authority.
Trump is obviously the vitriolic embodiment of evil and the most pathetic aspects of the seven deadly sins.
Biden was just old as hell. Creepy sniffer of little girls.
Trump second time around is Just an insane old man with Alzheimer's being puppeted by the most evil people in America.