They need to pay him as little as possible for two reasons:
They’re cheap
If they’re intending to trade him they need his salary figure to be as low as possible. He’s the best pitcher in the AL, for sure, but a salary in the high-$20’s makes for fewer trade suitors, to say nothing of the fact that teams will be more wary of parting with top prospects for what will be an incredibly costly rental
"The arbitrator" is a three person panel. Both sides submit want they want, argue their points, and the panel picks one side. No further negotiation is permitted. He's either going to get $19.75 milli9on or $32 million.
So, yeah, the arbitrators are allowed to give him whatever he demands if his side wins the debate.
In reality one “judge” makes the call. Usually there’s a player friendly one, a league friendly one, and one - the one I say chooses - who doesn’t swing too wildly.
My friend, what similar players made in prior arbitration years becomes the de facto salary scale.
That means similar service time, similar stats, similar performance.
Since there are no good backwards-looking comps, Skubal can’t claim he’s worth $30M+
There’s no clear binding precedent near his salary request (or his performance) in his service class.
I think the argument is better than you think tbh, the largest Arb win ever for a pitcher was $19.75M for David Price and that was a decade ago. Not accounting for salary inflation but just the inflation of USD that deal would be worth ~$27.4M today. Is it that crazy for Skubal to be asking for a $5M raise over price when adjusted for inflation?
That deal made Price the 11th highest paid pitcher in the MLB. $32M would put Skubal at 6th.
You could certainly argue that Skubal is much better than Price and should be paid a similar amount to his peers in that range. “If Price was made the 11th highest paid pitcher then I should be within the top 10 after being the best pitcher in the AL for two consecutive years.”
I think $32M is probably pushing it too far for him to win but I think he would certainly win if he filed at like $27M and under
Using Price as a base argument makes no sense when Skubal is the B2B cy young award winner. Him even being the 6th highest paid pitcher is still grossly underpaid for what he's actually worth. This whole arbitration year garbage needs to stop.
Like we discussed before, you can make those arguments but the Tigers are going to say a >200% raise is unprecedented. The year after Price won the CY he got a 132% raise. I think they will settle or the Tigers will win.
>Since there are no good backwards-looking comps, Skubal can’t claim he’s worth $30M+
And yet, somehow he did. And, having won the last two AL Cy Young awards, he has a good claim.
>There’s no clear binding precedent near his salary request (or his performance) in his service class.
There doesn't have to be. It's not based on precedent or on what some other guy got. Unless there is some other pitcher who's won two Cy Young Awards leading up to his first year of eligibility, then there simply is no precedent. The only recent guy who might be considered "in his service class" would be Kershaw, who made deals and avoided arbitration in both 2012 and 2014.
Unless there is some other pitcher who won back to back Cy young’s leading up to his first year of eligibility
Firstly, this is Skubal’s last eligible year not his first
Secondly, there actually has been a pitcher with the exact case you described. Tim Lincecum won B2B Cy Young’s leading up to his first Arbitration year. He filed at $15M, the Giants filed at $8M. They ended up settling on a 2 year deal worth $8M in year one and $15M in year 2
>They ended up settling on a 2 year deal worth $8M in year one and $15M in year 2
Okay. And?
It means nothing.
Here's what MLB's own website says about it:
>How does arbitration work?
>If the club and an arbitration-eligible player have not agreed on a salary by a deadline (typically in mid-January), the club and player must exchange salary figures for the upcoming season.
>After the figures are exchanged, a hearing is scheduled (typically in February). Teams and players are still free to continue negotiating on a contract up until the hearing date. If no one-year or multi-year settlement can be reached by the hearing date, the case is brought before a panel of arbitrators. After hearing arguments from both sides, the panel selects either the player- or team-submitted salary figure (but not one in between) as the player's salary for the upcoming season.
>The week prior to the exchange of arbitration figures is when the vast majority of arbitration cases are avoided, either by agreeing to a one- or multi-year contract.
Note, nothing about precedent or what anyone in the past has received. Merely the two sides make their claims and the arbitrators decide who wins.
I disagree. They offered him less than David Price, over 10 years ago who wasn’t as good (as good as Price was). There aren’t really good comparable pitchers recently; there ARE comparable hitters and they got close to what Skubal is asking for. I think the Tigers are the ones who screwed this up; they might have given it to them for 25-27 mil, but I don’t see any possible justification for paying the guy who won the last two Cy Youngs less than Price got 11 years ago.
The arbiter can’t split the difference. They have to either award the team’s figure or Skubal’s figure.
And honestly? Skubal’s figure seems like the more reasonable of the two. Third year arb numbers tend to be roughly in line with free agent values (maybe slightly lower) and $30M is not at all insane for Skubal.
But you’re talking about award and it’s also the wrong context. That was not Vlad’s final season of arbitration and it was coming off easily his worst season. Had he gone to arb in 2025, he would have gotten a lot more. They settled on 28.5 in his more comparable 2025 arbitration. Soto got 31 mil (again, agreed to it, not an awarded amount). Those are precedent too.
The Tigers could win but it’s going to be by leaning REALLY heavily on “ don’t give him a huge raise over last year” and “well he wasn’t that great back in 2023”. I think MLBTR was low, personally, he’s coming off back to back Cy Youngs and with 11 years of inflation, giving him less actual dollars than Price makes little to no sense. The question is whether they think 32 mil is too big of a jump. They might, they might not.
I am on Skubal's side. I think they also knew he'd file around this high, so they went relatively low, in order to meet closer to where they'd be more comfortable.
I am guessing they hope to meet in the middle at around $26.5M or so, before the arbitrator decides for them and likely sides with Skubal.
Arbitrator can’t split the difference, they have to pick either the team or the player number. Going this low actually hurts their position, since it’s such an absurdly low value for Skubal that he can legitimately think he is very likely to win the arbitration, giving little incentive to settle for a mid 20s number.
We complain about Cashman and Hal but think about being a tigers fan….
You suck for 8 years, rebuild, last 2 years look like you’re building something. Plsyoffs, 2 Cy Young’s..only to tell your ace you won’t be resigning him. Now look, he’ll be expensive. Thats what 2 Cy Young’s get you. But they have not paid anybody other than Baez in years.
Now you can argue, you don’t want to commit 400 mil to one guy, lest of all a starter, but in that case they should be super active in the UFA market while trying to move him.
They’re not doing any of that. Just low balling a guy that has almost single handedly carried them to October last 2 years. The Dodgers are not the problem, teams like Detroit are.
Yes, it's no secret that Chris Ilitch is a cheap owner. Tigers and Red Wings fans have been complaining for years. Just like how Yankees fans say Hal ain't George, Chris ain't Mike.
Yeah look at the red wings, they’ve been like a bubble team for how long? They’ve been so desperate to make a big UFA signing and 35 year old Patrick Kane is the obit prominent guy they’ve signed.
He will break that record no doubt..kinda like when Ryan Howard won mvp an then went to arbitration and broke the record. Same situation only 2 cy youngs in a row. Dude is worth every penny of what he asked, and will get it. Look at the other top salaried arms, his numbers are FAR superior.
It's a brutal process, arbitration. Both sides make their case, someone must lose. Corbin Burnes was really hurt when his team blamed him for not making the postseason. It's gonna end up bad.
I get the Tigers trying to bid low so they can hopefully settle in the middle, but how do you not think he’s worth more than Price was given how much salaries have increased over the last 10 years?
Kind of an insulting offer.
Like, at the very least they should have gone to $16 to at least say, “This is the highest ever!”
19.75m in 2015 is about 27m today. Really doesn't seem that bad tbh.
And Skubal is a good bit better than Price was. I’ll definitely root for him in that hearing
Baseball inflation has cooled to around 12% in recent years.
Good for him.
He’s one of the best pitchers in the game. Only fair to be paid as such.
They need to pay him as little as possible for two reasons:
30 mil is still pretty cheap for a rental of skubals quality tho
30m plus gutting the farm for Skubal. Yeah, no thanks
I’m not saying he’s worth the trade, just more than worth the contract
For sure? Even though he’s a Trash Sox, give me Garrett Crochet out of the AL.
Price was so fucking good to start his career
When he started getting owned by Gary Sanchez, it was over.
Massive copium right now but maybeeeeee?
Nah.
Skubal went too high because it’s not about his specific stats, it’s based on comps for similar players who’ve gone through arbitration.
IMO this is a leverage move for the upcoming CBA to show how “unfair” the season is.
The dude deserves to be paid, but I’d be shocked if the arbitrator is even allowed to give him what he’s worth.
"The arbitrator" is a three person panel. Both sides submit want they want, argue their points, and the panel picks one side. No further negotiation is permitted. He's either going to get $19.75 milli9on or $32 million.
So, yeah, the arbitrators are allowed to give him whatever he demands if his side wins the debate.
In reality one “judge” makes the call. Usually there’s a player friendly one, a league friendly one, and one - the one I say chooses - who doesn’t swing too wildly.
My friend, what similar players made in prior arbitration years becomes the de facto salary scale.
That means similar service time, similar stats, similar performance.
Since there are no good backwards-looking comps, Skubal can’t claim he’s worth $30M+
There’s no clear binding precedent near his salary request (or his performance) in his service class.
I think the argument is better than you think tbh, the largest Arb win ever for a pitcher was $19.75M for David Price and that was a decade ago. Not accounting for salary inflation but just the inflation of USD that deal would be worth ~$27.4M today. Is it that crazy for Skubal to be asking for a $5M raise over price when adjusted for inflation?
That deal made Price the 11th highest paid pitcher in the MLB. $32M would put Skubal at 6th.
You could certainly argue that Skubal is much better than Price and should be paid a similar amount to his peers in that range. “If Price was made the 11th highest paid pitcher then I should be within the top 10 after being the best pitcher in the AL for two consecutive years.”
I think $32M is probably pushing it too far for him to win but I think he would certainly win if he filed at like $27M and under
Using Price as a base argument makes no sense when Skubal is the B2B cy young award winner. Him even being the 6th highest paid pitcher is still grossly underpaid for what he's actually worth. This whole arbitration year garbage needs to stop.
Arbitration has never been based on what a player is worth on the open market.
And it’s ridiculous that they get so underpaid relative to their actual worth, for as long as they are
Like we discussed before, you can make those arguments but the Tigers are going to say a >200% raise is unprecedented. The year after Price won the CY he got a 132% raise. I think they will settle or the Tigers will win.
https://x.com/deeptocenter/status/2009404572960256244?s=46&t=WOUOFb6OCN9kPAXLTXuZOQ
>Since there are no good backwards-looking comps, Skubal can’t claim he’s worth $30M+
And yet, somehow he did. And, having won the last two AL Cy Young awards, he has a good claim.
>There’s no clear binding precedent near his salary request (or his performance) in his service class.
There doesn't have to be. It's not based on precedent or on what some other guy got. Unless there is some other pitcher who's won two Cy Young Awards leading up to his first year of eligibility, then there simply is no precedent. The only recent guy who might be considered "in his service class" would be Kershaw, who made deals and avoided arbitration in both 2012 and 2014.
Firstly, this is Skubal’s last eligible year not his first
Secondly, there actually has been a pitcher with the exact case you described. Tim Lincecum won B2B Cy Young’s leading up to his first Arbitration year. He filed at $15M, the Giants filed at $8M. They ended up settling on a 2 year deal worth $8M in year one and $15M in year 2
>They ended up settling on a 2 year deal worth $8M in year one and $15M in year 2
Okay. And?
It means nothing.
Here's what MLB's own website says about it:
>How does arbitration work?
>If the club and an arbitration-eligible player have not agreed on a salary by a deadline (typically in mid-January), the club and player must exchange salary figures for the upcoming season.
>After the figures are exchanged, a hearing is scheduled (typically in February). Teams and players are still free to continue negotiating on a contract up until the hearing date. If no one-year or multi-year settlement can be reached by the hearing date, the case is brought before a panel of arbitrators. After hearing arguments from both sides, the panel selects either the player- or team-submitted salary figure (but not one in between) as the player's salary for the upcoming season.
>The week prior to the exchange of arbitration figures is when the vast majority of arbitration cases are avoided, either by agreeing to a one- or multi-year contract.
Note, nothing about precedent or what anyone in the past has received. Merely the two sides make their claims and the arbitrators decide who wins.
That's it.
I was just pointing out the situation happened before, I didn’t even make an argument???
MLBTR projects $17.8M, so he seems pretty certain to lose this case.
MLBTR also predicted Murakami would get 8/$180 and Imai 6/$150. Let's not pretend they are always correct.
Those aren't arb cases. Their arb predictions are pretty reliably close.
Pretty clear no one in this thread understands baseball arbitration.
>it’s based on comps for similar players who’ve gone through arbitration.
Who has back to back cy young awards?
I disagree. They offered him less than David Price, over 10 years ago who wasn’t as good (as good as Price was). There aren’t really good comparable pitchers recently; there ARE comparable hitters and they got close to what Skubal is asking for. I think the Tigers are the ones who screwed this up; they might have given it to them for 25-27 mil, but I don’t see any possible justification for paying the guy who won the last two Cy Youngs less than Price got 11 years ago.
Filing at $19 million for someone who has been as legit good as Skubal is crazy. Wtf Tigers
MLBTR had his estimate at $17.8m, so “wtf Tigers” misplaced. Arbitration isn’t free agency.
Let’s not act like MLBTR is always accurate, lol
Do you think they’re $20m off on their predictions?
The arbiter can’t split the difference. They have to either award the team’s figure or Skubal’s figure.
And honestly? Skubal’s figure seems like the more reasonable of the two. Third year arb numbers tend to be roughly in line with free agent values (maybe slightly lower) and $30M is not at all insane for Skubal.
Vlad Jr has the highest non-super 2 arbitration award at $19m. Was that in line with his free agent value?
But you’re talking about award and it’s also the wrong context. That was not Vlad’s final season of arbitration and it was coming off easily his worst season. Had he gone to arb in 2025, he would have gotten a lot more. They settled on 28.5 in his more comparable 2025 arbitration. Soto got 31 mil (again, agreed to it, not an awarded amount). Those are precedent too.
The Tigers could win but it’s going to be by leaning REALLY heavily on “ don’t give him a huge raise over last year” and “well he wasn’t that great back in 2023”. I think MLBTR was low, personally, he’s coming off back to back Cy Youngs and with 11 years of inflation, giving him less actual dollars than Price makes little to no sense. The question is whether they think 32 mil is too big of a jump. They might, they might not.
tarik skubal is a super 2, like juan soto, is he not? soto got 30 mil his final year. how is vladdy relevant
He’s not a super two.
Tigers are acting like such a poverty franchise rn my word
I mean the guy has won back to back cy youngs. I’d say he’s on par with 2015 David Price. Pay the man!
He's way above Price tbh
Skubal is the B2B cy young award winner, the fact that he's not even going to be top 5 because of arbitration years is trash. This system needs to end
Tigers owners are such cheap dumb mfers lol
That's quite a gap.
I am on Skubal's side. I think they also knew he'd file around this high, so they went relatively low, in order to meet closer to where they'd be more comfortable.
I am guessing they hope to meet in the middle at around $26.5M or so, before the arbitrator decides for them and likely sides with Skubal.
Arbitrator can’t split the difference, they have to pick either the team or the player number. Going this low actually hurts their position, since it’s such an absurdly low value for Skubal that he can legitimately think he is very likely to win the arbitration, giving little incentive to settle for a mid 20s number.
Edited it.
I do think that this kind of gap tends to result in a middle ground agreement between team and player.
We complain about Cashman and Hal but think about being a tigers fan….
You suck for 8 years, rebuild, last 2 years look like you’re building something. Plsyoffs, 2 Cy Young’s..only to tell your ace you won’t be resigning him. Now look, he’ll be expensive. Thats what 2 Cy Young’s get you. But they have not paid anybody other than Baez in years.
Now you can argue, you don’t want to commit 400 mil to one guy, lest of all a starter, but in that case they should be super active in the UFA market while trying to move him.
They’re not doing any of that. Just low balling a guy that has almost single handedly carried them to October last 2 years. The Dodgers are not the problem, teams like Detroit are.
Yes, it's no secret that Chris Ilitch is a cheap owner. Tigers and Red Wings fans have been complaining for years. Just like how Yankees fans say Hal ain't George, Chris ain't Mike.
Yeah look at the red wings, they’ve been like a bubble team for how long? They’ve been so desperate to make a big UFA signing and 35 year old Patrick Kane is the obit prominent guy they’ve signed.
Pretty disrespectful to not even match the record for highest arb. He just won back to back Cy Youngs. He absolutely deserves more than $19M.
Now, I don't know if the arbitrator would side with Skubal on $32M but DET low balled him with $19M.
If we don’t sign Bellinger maybe we can hold out and trade for Skubal mid season if he’s on $32 million
I admire that level of optimism. But I would not hold your breath bruh
Posturing...they won't make it to a hearing. They're $13M apart. Give him $26M and call it done.
They will settle at $25.5m an hour before the hearing.
Bargain.
I think he knows they can't pay and is forcing a trade to a team that can. Regardless he deserves it
He will break that record no doubt..kinda like when Ryan Howard won mvp an then went to arbitration and broke the record. Same situation only 2 cy youngs in a row. Dude is worth every penny of what he asked, and will get it. Look at the other top salaried arms, his numbers are FAR superior.
Mookie got $27M after winning MVP and that was 7 years ago. Doesn't seem too crazy for $32M on a CYA winning season.
It's a brutal process, arbitration. Both sides make their case, someone must lose. Corbin Burnes was really hurt when his team blamed him for not making the postseason. It's gonna end up bad.
Hopefully this leads to a trade to us.
I get the Tigers trying to bid low so they can hopefully settle in the middle, but how do you not think he’s worth more than Price was given how much salaries have increased over the last 10 years?
Kind of an insulting offer.
Like, at the very least they should have gone to $16 to at least say, “This is the highest ever!”
They can’t settle in the middle, that’s not how arbitration works. Either they win or they lose
They can absolutely settle prior to the arbitration hearing.