I don't think the map is correct. Average temperature in Istanbul in January, which is colder than December, is 5.9°C, and the average low is 3.6°C. Moreover, Istanbul is at sea level.
A more accurate map would probably have more green.
Istanbul is hilly. It can snow where I live but if I walk 20 minutes downhill to the shore, it'll be raining. "Sea level" is too much of a simplification.
"Average temperature for Istanbul" is a bit like saying "Average temperature for a small country". As of my writing this right now, the reported temperature in the 40 districts varies between 3 and 8 degrees.
5 years I have been in Istanbul it usually snows lightly and locally for maybe 2-3 hours near new years eve.real snow is in early Feb and early march. March is usually the coldest month
Istanbul is a cold city in winter under the effect of winds from Siberia and Balkans. Just two years ago it had three long snowstorms in one winter. What are you on?
And lake effect doesn’t require just cold. It requires cold air and warmer body of water. Northern winds and Black Sea provide just that making Istanbul snowy.
Istanbul gets something called lake effect snow. So you can have frequent and long snow storms in certain winters. Becoming rarer due to global warming.
Even large parts of Northern Norway are simply not going to see any snow during Christmas. I guess it depends on what "snowfall" means. And what Christmas means. If it's the 25th, the predicted temperature low for my area is 6 degrees, with almost no chance it hits 0.
Sure, I didn't say otherwise (even if I am also sure most Norwegians would point to the 24th if asked when Christmas is, if they had to pick a single day)
No, that is wrong. Christmas is still the 25th. That we have the main celebration on Christmas eve does not mean Christmas comes a day earlier in Norway.
We celebrate the birth of Jesus who’s birthday according to the Church is the 25th of december. I mean sure. In normal everyday language we speak of Christmas as just one big thing. As Christmas. However, and that was why I said I might be a bit nitpicky now, but Christmas is technically 25th even though we in Norway have the main celebration on Christmas eve. For example in a similar fashion is it the new year 31.12 or 01.01?
Mate 50% of Norway could be at 10% chance of snow on Christmas this year. I live in Oslo and haven't seen snow yet this winter, it was 12c the other day.
And in Stavanger, we haven't had snow on christmas since 2012. And I don't think we're gonna get it anytime soon either. During the last couple of weeks, we've had 9-11 celsius.
Btw, the map may be correct when it comes to historical statistics but since 2011, everything changed. So this statistic is only to be used for historical records, not for predicting the future. So I'd say the map is correct, but the title is wrong as it's trying predict 2025
Yeah the map is too optimistic for major parts of Benelux and Germany+ Denmark. Here in Cologne the temperature forecast next week is around 7-8 degrees, it's in less than a week. There is no chance, yet alone 25%. Even IF everything points to possible snowfall, in most cases it's not happening or melting instantly. The ground is also warmer than 0°C because we barely have frost.
As someone from central Netherlands... I can say for sure we are not getting snow here... maybe southern Limburg or Friesland/Groningen but not here or the Randstad
If it does snow in the Netherlands, it will likely in the far east. Though it is looking significantly less likely because of dominant high-pressure. A sharp frost is much more likely
The more east you go into europe = warmer summers and colder winters. Vice versa if you go West. For example: Dublin, Paris, Milan, and Istanbul have nearly identical average January temperatures!
Sierra Nevada is in the southern part of Spain and here you have some webcam images from today
In fact next week a lot more snow almost everywhere is expected so no idea about this map
Looks so wrong for Greece..there’s a weather system coming to our mountains next days. You put <5 on areas that have snow already and will see even more
Oslo should be either less than 5 or less than 25% chance. It's 10 degrees and rainy now. And it might not drop below zero before Christmas even during the night.
If you count the hills around Oslo then maybe, at around 500-600 meters maybe, though not likely even there.
The concept of a "white Christmas" is still so weird to me. Like bro every Christmas has snow where I live. The real question is whether we have snow by Halloween.
That is nonsens at this point, it says Oslo has a 75% chance of snow, currently it's way above 0 degrees celsius and it does not remotely seem like it will snow
Doesn't seem to hold true for Helsinki. Currently +6ºC, and obviously no snow. Getting down to +1ºC by Christmas in the forecast, but with no precipitation.
It's actually a bit unclear to me what the map shows. It says specifically "for Christmas 2025" which made me believe it's a very recent forecast. Just saying the actual forecast makes a white Christmas near-impossible.
Or maybe it's meant to be a long-term past average incidence of white Christmas, in which case it's poorly worded. And I'd still think those percentages look a bit too high across the board.
just google it? countries use the same calendar, but christmas is celebrated on 7th of January in Russia, Belarus, Moldova, Montenegro, Serbia, North Macedonia, Ukraine (partially)... and i'm actually in this map, in a country that i didn't list, where christmas is celebrated on 7th of January
TIL that İstanbul was colder than I thought (I live there)
It used to snow every winter, now the part of istanbul where I live, I have not seen proper snow in a decade (not counting 1-2 days of overnight snow)
Was colder being the operative term. Welcome to global warming!
I don't think the map is correct. Average temperature in Istanbul in January, which is colder than December, is 5.9°C, and the average low is 3.6°C. Moreover, Istanbul is at sea level.
A more accurate map would probably have more green.
Edit: my attempt to make the map more accurate
Things to consider:
5.9C is pretty cold compared to Western Europe. For reference, the average January temperature for London is 7-8C, a lot warmer than Istanbul.
Still not cold enough for Istanbul to have a chance of Snowfall in Christmas of 25%
5 years I have been in Istanbul it usually snows lightly and locally for maybe 2-3 hours near new years eve.real snow is in early Feb and early march. March is usually the coldest month
No, your assumption that Istanbul is flat and a point in space is wrong.
Not an assumption, an average of where most people live in Istanbul, which is below below 100 meter over sea level
Yes, 120m is the average.
Also, you ignored the point in space.
Same thing. You're not going to get a significant difference in climate between the farthest two points in Istanbul.
I quote from my other response:
I had the snowiest New Year’s Eve of my life in Istanbul in 2014.
That doesn't contradicts what I said
Istanbul has sth. called lake effect snow. If your understanding of snow is snow = cold, you must have failed your geography classes.
Lake effect snow still requires low temperatures. You can't have lake effect snow at any temperature.
Istanbul is a cold city in winter under the effect of winds from Siberia and Balkans. Just two years ago it had three long snowstorms in one winter. What are you on?
And lake effect doesn’t require just cold. It requires cold air and warmer body of water. Northern winds and Black Sea provide just that making Istanbul snowy.
Istanbul gets something called lake effect snow. So you can have frequent and long snow storms in certain winters. Becoming rarer due to global warming.
Apparently it's colder than Italy as well. It's been more than 7 years since Rome received any kind of snowfall.
Bullshit map
Oslo, Norway is at like 10%. No shot this map is accurate.
Where do you live?
In Helsinki, Finland it's currently +7 Celsius, and the chances of a white Christmas seem marginal.
It was +9 in Oslo today.
Current weather forecast for Christmas eve says +2°
It's at 0/-1 now but no precipitation.
I was in Helsinki last week and it was fucking freezing so who’s to say the weather won’t flip again?
The weather forecast?
Which says it will go below zero by monday.
Clearly you haven't even looked at the weather forecast and you are so confident
Even large parts of Northern Norway are simply not going to see any snow during Christmas. I guess it depends on what "snowfall" means. And what Christmas means. If it's the 25th, the predicted temperature low for my area is 6 degrees, with almost no chance it hits 0.
Might be a bit nitpicky, but Christmas is the 25th. 24th would be Christmas eve.
Sure, I didn't say otherwise (even if I am also sure most Norwegians would point to the 24th if asked when Christmas is, if they had to pick a single day)
Well, to nitpick your nitpick, in Norway (which we are talking about here) Christmas is the 24th.
No, that is wrong. Christmas is still the 25th. That we have the main celebration on Christmas eve does not mean Christmas comes a day earlier in Norway.
There is no universal "single day Christmas".
We celebrate the birth of Jesus who’s birthday according to the Church is the 25th of december. I mean sure. In normal everyday language we speak of Christmas as just one big thing. As Christmas. However, and that was why I said I might be a bit nitpicky now, but Christmas is technically 25th even though we in Norway have the main celebration on Christmas eve. For example in a similar fashion is it the new year 31.12 or 01.01?
The day is different in different cultures/churches. Ie jan 6 in Armenia.
The armenians also celebrate Christmas and Epiphany on the same day.
Mate 50% of Norway could be at 10% chance of snow on Christmas this year. I live in Oslo and haven't seen snow yet this winter, it was 12c the other day.
And in Stavanger, we haven't had snow on christmas since 2012. And I don't think we're gonna get it anytime soon either. During the last couple of weeks, we've had 9-11 celsius.
Btw, the map may be correct when it comes to historical statistics but since 2011, everything changed. So this statistic is only to be used for historical records, not for predicting the future. So I'd say the map is correct, but the title is wrong as it's trying predict 2025
Currently in Oslo, and it's looking pretty unlikely there'll be snow on the ground here come Christmas this year
Yup, im in sweden, in a region where the chance is 25%. Its 8 degrees out right now at 20 o clock
on christmas not now
Its been like this for several weeks, and christmas is barely 5 days and 3 hours away
In the UK it says temperatures are set to plummet (5-6C) in a few days.
Do you know that weather can change fast?
There's a forecast for tuesday / wednesday for the weather to flip significantly to sub 0 temperatures.
Weather can change fairly quickly
Here in Sweden it's a nice 75% chance. Håller tummarna!
I mean the 50 % in Czechia seem plausible.
It will either snow or not snow.It will not snow
Yeah the map is too optimistic for major parts of Benelux and Germany+ Denmark. Here in Cologne the temperature forecast next week is around 7-8 degrees, it's in less than a week. There is no chance, yet alone 25%. Even IF everything points to possible snowfall, in most cases it's not happening or melting instantly. The ground is also warmer than 0°C because we barely have frost.
7 days out it shows a low of 1C with 30% chance of snow showers. !remindme 7 days
Where?
Oh, sorry. Copenhagen and Cologne. Benelux is a bit lower
As someone from central Netherlands... I can say for sure we are not getting snow here... maybe southern Limburg or Friesland/Groningen but not here or the Randstad
If it does snow in the Netherlands, it will likely in the far east. Though it is looking significantly less likely because of dominant high-pressure. A sharp frost is much more likely
Ye for some reason if we cross the border to Germany there is more snow
The more east you go into europe = warmer summers and colder winters. Vice versa if you go West. For example: Dublin, Paris, Milan, and Istanbul have nearly identical average January temperatures!
Cologne I promise no snow not even close
Weather is way too unpredictable to be this confident about anything like that
You're probably going to be right but not even professional meteoroligists would be this confident
Exactly, the weather is too unpredictable which is why it is sitting around 20-30% :)
People in southern Spain: so you’re telling me there’s a chance?!
Sierra Nevada is in the southern part of Spain and here you have some webcam images from today In fact next week a lot more snow almost everywhere is expected so no idea about this map
Well, some of them do live in the mountains
Yep, my Google weather forecast says it might snow on Sunday 21st and Wednesday 24th.
But this map doesn't actually reflect that, it only shows a chance for the northern half of Spain. I live way further south than the blue spots.
Looks so wrong for Greece..there’s a weather system coming to our mountains next days. You put <5 on areas that have snow already and will see even more
Reykjavik is not even 10% lol.
But if you saw the Christmas cards in Ireland, you'd think it was 500%.
Oslo should be either less than 5 or less than 25% chance. It's 10 degrees and rainy now. And it might not drop below zero before Christmas even during the night.
If you count the hills around Oslo then maybe, at around 500-600 meters maybe, though not likely even there.
Source: https://www.yr.no/nb/v%C3%A6rvarsel/daglig-tabell/1-72837/Norge/Oslo/Oslo/Oslo
This aren’t live odds
!remindme 7 days
I used to make betting odds for a white Christmas in different cities in Sweden and Norway and this map feels far too optimistic lol.
That would be wild, we haven’t had snow in Vienna or Graz for many years now (during Christmas)
No way that there's a 25% chance of snow during Christmas here in Denmark...
Yeah that light blue area is more like 10% chance
Yes, I live in Northern Germany, It is way too hot and also the soil is still so warm it would take at least one really cold week to have some snow.
copenhagen 25 dec: forecast high 2 low 1. 8 days out so it can easily drop or rise a lot
The concept of a "white Christmas" is still so weird to me. Like bro every Christmas has snow where I live. The real question is whether we have snow by Halloween.
I have -45°C with wind chill now, I think chance is like 100% for the most of Russia
Only if there is precipitation clouds nearby
Hmmm, snow do generate from wind and definitely not from clouds
On average, there are 5 sunny days in December, and on the other days, it snows almost every day
☹️
Would have made sense to include the date the map was made
Sure, 50% of snow on the French Riviera. 🙄 Been living there for the past 47 years. Snowed four times.
Can't confirm or deny the accuracy of it, but I love how it looks!
How is "Christmas" defined here? As the 24th of December?
If it is defined as "December" for example, there are places that should be 100% (because they already have snow).
Either way, the effects from climate change are indeed sad.
I am in the dark blue zone, and I am pretty sure there will be no snow on new year, as there was no snow last new year
Northern Germany maybe Harz mountains. Else I don't see a chance of snow for Christmas.
50% my ass
Serbia rarely gets snow these days
It shows 75% for me, put the forecast doesn’t promise any snow, just temperatures around -2°C
I don't think it's 50% for Serbia. I don't remember even one white Christmas in the last decade.
Iberia has an eye
Spain is a pretty mountainous country but somehow absolutely no snow in most of the mountain ranges...
That is nonsens at this point, it says Oslo has a 75% chance of snow, currently it's way above 0 degrees celsius and it does not remotely seem like it will snow
Not having snowfall on Christmas feels such a foreign concept to me. I've never experienced it.
Sure hope so! Haven't been a snowflake many places here in south-eastern norway
50% chance of Snow at the Cote azuré... 😂😂 Bullshit
Ik it says 2025, but there hasn’t been snow fall on Christmas here in Bavaria for atleast 10 years.
Go Carpathians
According to my weather app there’s a 0% chance of precipitation for Christmas. Meanwhile this map says there’s a 75% chance.
I call bullshit on the map. It’s currently 00:33 and 6°C. There is absolutely no chance of snow on Christmas where I am.
What's with that anomalously snowy spot in western Germany?
Doesn't seem to hold true for Helsinki. Currently +6ºC, and obviously no snow. Getting down to +1ºC by Christmas in the forecast, but with no precipitation.
How it is not true? There is said that it is ~75% not 100%
It's actually a bit unclear to me what the map shows. It says specifically "for Christmas 2025" which made me believe it's a very recent forecast. Just saying the actual forecast makes a white Christmas near-impossible.
Or maybe it's meant to be a long-term past average incidence of white Christmas, in which case it's poorly worded. And I'd still think those percentages look a bit too high across the board.
Christmas 2025 = Christmas 2025.
It has been an insane year in terms of weather for all of Europe.
look at the forecast
this probably doesn't account for the orthodox christmas, which is a big part of the map
There's no orthodox christmas
Bulgaria, Romania, Greece and Ukraine are orthodox, yet they use correct calendar
just google it? countries use the same calendar, but christmas is celebrated on 7th of January in Russia, Belarus, Moldova, Montenegro, Serbia, North Macedonia, Ukraine (partially)... and i'm actually in this map, in a country that i didn't list, where christmas is celebrated on 7th of January
Okay, and? Still, there is nothing inheretily orthodox about celebrating christmas 13 days later
You're being obtuse. Everybody knows what they mean with orthodox christmas even though it is not referred like that by the orthodox church.
So Romanians aren't orthdoox or what
it's just a name, because it's in orthodox christianity, opposed to catholicism
Source: trust me bro
The whole of Germany >25% and even higher around lake Constance? Never.
Have you looked at the forecast? Also you are reading it wrong
Snow? Istanbul? Christmas time? Never has been, neber will be
The only place in Germany with a 75%+ likelihood of snow is …. Cologne.
Sure, why not.
That is not where Cologne is.
I call bs. South hesse here. Weather forcast says its 6-8°C at Christmas with sunshine
No, it is the Winterberg-regio, Hochsauerlandkreis