Chance of snowfall across Europe during Christmas 2025
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  • 111 points NetHistorical5113

    TIL that İstanbul was colder than I thought (I live there)

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    17 points FrozenPizza07

    It used to snow every winter, now the part of istanbul where I live, I have not seen proper snow in a decade (not counting 1-2 days of overnight snow)

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    39 points Few-Interview-1996

    Was colder being the operative term. Welcome to global warming!

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    8 points Yearlaren

    I don't think the map is correct. Average temperature in Istanbul in January, which is colder than December, is 5.9°C, and the average low is 3.6°C. Moreover, Istanbul is at sea level.

    A more accurate map would probably have more green.

    Edit: my attempt to make the map more accurate

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    8 points Few-Interview-1996

    Things to consider:

    1. Istanbul is hilly. It can snow where I live but if I walk 20 minutes downhill to the shore, it'll be raining. "Sea level" is too much of a simplification.
    2. "Average temperature for Istanbul" is a bit like saying "Average temperature for a small country". As of my writing this right now, the reported temperature in the 40 districts varies between 3 and 8 degrees.
    3. It used to be even colder.
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    5 points iflfish

    5.9C is pretty cold compared to Western Europe. For reference, the average January temperature for London is 7-8C, a lot warmer than Istanbul.

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    -4 points Yearlaren

    Still not cold enough for Istanbul to have a chance of Snowfall in Christmas of 25%

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    5 points YizzWarrior

    5 years I have been in Istanbul it usually snows lightly and locally for maybe 2-3 hours near new years eve.real snow is in early Feb and early march. March is usually the coldest month

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    3 points Few-Interview-1996

    No, your assumption that Istanbul is flat and a point in space is wrong.

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    0 points Yearlaren

    Not an assumption, an average of where most people live in Istanbul, which is below below 100 meter over sea level

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    2 points Few-Interview-1996

    Yes, 120m is the average.

    Also, you ignored the point in space.

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    -1 points Yearlaren

    Same thing. You're not going to get a significant difference in climate between the farthest two points in Istanbul.

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    1 points Few-Interview-1996

    I quote from my other response:

    As of my writing this right now, the reported temperature in the 40 districts varies between 3 and 8 degrees.

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    0 points hknyrbkn

    I had the snowiest New Year’s Eve of my life in Istanbul in 2014.

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    1 points Yearlaren

    That doesn't contradicts what I said

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    1 points hknyrbkn

    Istanbul has sth. called lake effect snow. If your understanding of snow is snow = cold, you must have failed your geography classes.

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    1 points Yearlaren

    Lake effect snow still requires low temperatures. You can't have lake effect snow at any temperature.

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    1 points hknyrbkn

    Istanbul is a cold city in winter under the effect of winds from Siberia and Balkans. Just two years ago it had three long snowstorms in one winter. What are you on?

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    1 points hknyrbkn

    And lake effect doesn’t require just cold. It requires cold air and warmer body of water. Northern winds and Black Sea provide just that making Istanbul snowy.

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    2 points hknyrbkn

    Istanbul gets something called lake effect snow. So you can have frequent and long snow storms in certain winters. Becoming rarer due to global warming.

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    3 points DktheDarkKnight

    Apparently it's colder than Italy as well. It's been more than 7 years since Rome received any kind of snowfall.

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  • 171 points Madman_Sean

    Bullshit map

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    54 points Scotsch

    Oslo, Norway is at like 10%. No shot this map is accurate.

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    32 points Antti5

    Where do you live?

    In Helsinki, Finland it's currently +7 Celsius, and the chances of a white Christmas seem marginal.

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    15 points ChristofferOslo

    It was +9 in Oslo today.

    Current weather forecast for Christmas eve says +2°

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    1 points Scotsch

    It's at 0/-1 now but no precipitation.

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    -11 points ALA02

    I was in Helsinki last week and it was fucking freezing so who’s to say the weather won’t flip again?

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    27 points Antti5

    who’s to say the weather won’t flip again?

    The weather forecast?

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    2 points V8-6-4

    Which says it will go below zero by monday.

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    1 points Exile4444

    Clearly you haven't even looked at the weather forecast and you are so confident

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    16 points Nimonic

    Even large parts of Northern Norway are simply not going to see any snow during Christmas. I guess it depends on what "snowfall" means. And what Christmas means. If it's the 25th, the predicted temperature low for my area is 6 degrees, with almost no chance it hits 0.

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    -2 points History_isCool

    Might be a bit nitpicky, but Christmas is the 25th. 24th would be Christmas eve.

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    4 points Nimonic

    Sure, I didn't say otherwise (even if I am also sure most Norwegians would point to the 24th if asked when Christmas is, if they had to pick a single day)

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    3 points Scotsch

    Well, to nitpick your nitpick, in Norway (which we are talking about here) Christmas is the 24th.

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    -2 points History_isCool

    No, that is wrong. Christmas is still the 25th. That we have the main celebration on Christmas eve does not mean Christmas comes a day earlier in Norway.

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    3 points Scotsch

    There is no universal "single day Christmas".

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    0 points History_isCool

    We celebrate the birth of Jesus who’s birthday according to the Church is the 25th of december. I mean sure. In normal everyday language we speak of Christmas as just one big thing. As Christmas. However, and that was why I said I might be a bit nitpicky now, but Christmas is technically 25th even though we in Norway have the main celebration on Christmas eve. For example in a similar fashion is it the new year 31.12 or 01.01?

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    2 points Scotsch

    The day is different in different cultures/churches. Ie jan 6 in Armenia.

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    2 points History_isCool

    The armenians also celebrate Christmas and Epiphany on the same day.

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    4 points dont_trip_

    Mate 50% of Norway could be at 10% chance of snow on Christmas this year. I live in Oslo and haven't seen snow yet this winter, it was 12c the other day. 

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    2 points Erling01

    And in Stavanger, we haven't had snow on christmas since 2012. And I don't think we're gonna get it anytime soon either. During the last couple of weeks, we've had 9-11 celsius.

    Btw, the map may be correct when it comes to historical statistics but since 2011, everything changed. So this statistic is only to be used for historical records, not for predicting the future. So I'd say the map is correct, but the title is wrong as it's trying predict 2025

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    1 points Toxonomonogatari

    Currently in Oslo, and it's looking pretty unlikely there'll be snow on the ground here come Christmas this year

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    14 points GrimmCreole

    Yup, im in sweden, in a region where the chance is 25%. Its 8 degrees out right now at 20 o clock

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    20 points Gebeslamov

    on christmas not now

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    9 points GrimmCreole

    Its been like this for several weeks, and christmas is barely 5 days and 3 hours away

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    1 points bobbobberson3

    In the UK it says temperatures are set to plummet (5-6C) in a few days.

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    1 points Gebeslamov

    Do you know that weather can change fast?

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    1 points Hustlinbones

    There's a forecast for tuesday / wednesday for the weather to flip significantly to sub 0 temperatures.

    Weather can change fairly quickly

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    1 points Kalle_Kakan

    Here in Sweden it's a nice 75% chance. Håller tummarna!

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    3 points Bozska_lytka

    I mean the 50 % in Czechia seem plausible.

    It will either snow or not snow.It will not snow

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  • 27 points Skerre

    Yeah the map is too optimistic for major parts of Benelux and Germany+ Denmark. Here in Cologne the temperature forecast next week is around 7-8 degrees, it's in less than a week. There is no chance, yet alone 25%. Even IF everything points to possible snowfall, in most cases it's not happening or melting instantly. The ground is also warmer than 0°C because we barely have frost.

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    4 points Exile4444

    7 days out it shows a low of 1C with 30% chance of snow showers. !remindme 7 days

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    1 points Skerre

    Where?

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    3 points Exile4444

    Oh, sorry. Copenhagen and Cologne. Benelux is a bit lower

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    1 points flopjul

    As someone from central Netherlands... I can say for sure we are not getting snow here... maybe southern Limburg or Friesland/Groningen but not here or the Randstad

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    1 points Exile4444

    If it does snow in the Netherlands, it will likely in the far east. Though it is looking significantly less likely because of dominant high-pressure. A sharp frost is much more likely

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    1 points flopjul

    Ye for some reason if we cross the border to Germany there is more snow

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    1 points Exile4444

    The more east you go into europe = warmer summers and colder winters. Vice versa if you go West. For example: Dublin, Paris, Milan, and Istanbul have nearly identical average January temperatures!

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    -1 points Skerre

    Cologne I promise no snow not even close

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    1 points LetsLive97

    Weather is way too unpredictable to be this confident about anything like that

    You're probably going to be right but not even professional meteoroligists would be this confident

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    1 points Exile4444

    Exactly, the weather is too unpredictable which is why it is sitting around 20-30% :)

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  • 14 points Onemorebeforesleep

    People in southern Spain: so you’re telling me there’s a chance?!

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    3 points misatillo

    Sierra Nevada is in the southern part of Spain and here you have some webcam images from today In fact next week a lot more snow almost everywhere is expected so no idea about this map

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    4 points Squaret22

    Well, some of them do live in the mountains

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    1 points pedrito_elcabra

    Yep, my Google weather forecast says it might snow on Sunday 21st and Wednesday 24th.

    But this map doesn't actually reflect that, it only shows a chance for the northern half of Spain. I live way further south than the blue spots.

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  • 5 points Aegeansunset12

    Looks so wrong for Greece..there’s a weather system coming to our mountains next days. You put <5 on areas that have snow already and will see even more

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  • 3 points Exile4444

    Reykjavik is not even 10% lol.

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  • 5 points YoIronFistBro

    But if you saw the Christmas cards in Ireland, you'd think it was 500%.

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  • 4 points Jeppep

    Oslo should be either less than 5 or less than 25% chance. It's 10 degrees and rainy now. And it might not drop below zero before Christmas even during the night.

    If you count the hills around Oslo then maybe, at around 500-600 meters maybe, though not likely even there.

    Source: https://www.yr.no/nb/v%C3%A6rvarsel/daglig-tabell/1-72837/Norge/Oslo/Oslo/Oslo

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    3 points Aggravating-Ad1703

    This aren’t live odds

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    1 points Exile4444

    !remindme 7 days

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  • 2 points zealen

    I used to make betting odds for a white Christmas in different cities in Sweden and Norway and this map feels far too optimistic lol.

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  • 2 points ItHappensSo

    That would be wild, we haven’t had snow in Vienna or Graz for many years now (during Christmas)

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  • 3 points Truelz

    No way that there's a 25% chance of snow during Christmas here in Denmark...

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    3 points Aggravating-Ad1703

    Yeah that light blue area is more like 10% chance

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    2 points GermanPatriot123

    Yes, I live in Northern Germany, It is way too hot and also the soil is still so warm it would take at least one really cold week to have some snow.

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    1 points Exile4444

    copenhagen 25 dec: forecast high 2 low 1. 8 days out so it can easily drop or rise a lot

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  • 3 points mischling2543

    The concept of a "white Christmas" is still so weird to me. Like bro every Christmas has snow where I live. The real question is whether we have snow by Halloween.

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  • 3 points Fun-Raisin2575

    I have -45°C with wind chill now, I think chance is like 100% for the most of Russia

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    10 points Arachles

    Only if there is precipitation clouds nearby

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    1 points Weak_Case_8002

    Hmmm, snow do generate from wind and definitely not from clouds

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    2 points Fun-Raisin2575

    On average, there are 5 sunny days in December, and on the other days, it snows almost every day

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  • 1 points Beneficial-Code8026

    ☹️

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  • 1 points Exile4444

    Would have made sense to include the date the map was made

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  • 1 points Akirohan

    Sure, 50% of snow on the French Riviera. 🙄 Been living there for the past 47 years. Snowed four times.

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  • 1 points Mappuccin0

    Can't confirm or deny the accuracy of it, but I love how it looks!

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  • 1 points Nikkonor

    How is "Christmas" defined here? As the 24th of December?

    If it is defined as "December" for example, there are places that should be 100% (because they already have snow).

    Either way, the effects from climate change are indeed sad.

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  • 1 points js_kt

    I am in the dark blue zone, and I am pretty sure there will be no snow on new year, as there was no snow last new year

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  • 1 points Kampfgeist049

    Northern Germany maybe Harz mountains. Else I don't see a chance of snow for Christmas.

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  • 1 points 24benson

    50% my ass

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  • 1 points Pretty_Ad4908

    Serbia rarely gets snow these days

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  • 1 points Anton_astro_UA

    It shows 75% for me, put the forecast doesn’t promise any snow, just temperatures around -2°C

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  • 1 points Ascetic_Dionysus

    I don't think it's 50% for Serbia. I don't remember even one white Christmas in the last decade.

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  • 1 points scriptingends

    Iberia has an eye

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  • 1 points SaraHHHBK

    Spain is a pretty mountainous country but somehow absolutely no snow in most of the mountain ranges...

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  • 1 points ImJustAFisch

    That is nonsens at this point, it says Oslo has a 75% chance of snow, currently it's way above 0 degrees celsius and it does not remotely seem like it will snow

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  • 1 points PersKarvaRousku

    Not having snowfall on Christmas feels such a foreign concept to me. I've never experienced it.

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  • 1 points RingReasonable

    Sure hope so! Haven't been a snowflake many places here in south-eastern norway

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  • 1 points Wooden-Lab3833

    50% chance of Snow at the Cote azuré... 😂😂 Bullshit

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  • 1 points SomeGuythatownesaCat

    Ik it says 2025, but there hasn’t been snow fall on Christmas here in Bavaria for atleast 10 years.

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  • 1 points Fancy-Sherbet8787

    Go Carpathians

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  • 1 points 0ng0Gabl0g1an

    According to my weather app there’s a 0% chance of precipitation for Christmas. Meanwhile this map says there’s a 75% chance.

    I call bullshit on the map. It’s currently 00:33 and 6°C. There is absolutely no chance of snow on Christmas where I am.

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  • 1 points edgeplot

    What's with that anomalously snowy spot in western Germany?

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  • 1 points Many-Gas-9376

    Doesn't seem to hold true for Helsinki. Currently +6ºC, and obviously no snow. Getting down to +1ºC by Christmas in the forecast, but with no precipitation.

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    8 points MapsCreator

    How it is not true? There is said that it is ~75% not 100%

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    2 points Many-Gas-9376

    It's actually a bit unclear to me what the map shows. It says specifically "for Christmas 2025" which made me believe it's a very recent forecast. Just saying the actual forecast makes a white Christmas near-impossible.

    Or maybe it's meant to be a long-term past average incidence of white Christmas, in which case it's poorly worded. And I'd still think those percentages look a bit too high across the board.

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    1 points Exile4444

    Christmas 2025 = Christmas 2025.

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    2 points Few-Interview-1996

    It has been an insane year in terms of weather for all of Europe.

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    1 points Exile4444

    look at the forecast

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  • 1 points avance70

    this probably doesn't account for the orthodox christmas, which is a big part of the map

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    -4 points Madman_Sean

    There's no orthodox christmas

    Bulgaria, Romania, Greece and Ukraine are orthodox, yet they use correct calendar

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    3 points avance70

    just google it? countries use the same calendar, but christmas is celebrated on 7th of January in Russia, Belarus, Moldova, Montenegro, Serbia, North Macedonia, Ukraine (partially)... and i'm actually in this map, in a country that i didn't list, where christmas is celebrated on 7th of January

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    -1 points Madman_Sean

    Okay, and? Still, there is nothing inheretily orthodox about celebrating christmas 13 days later

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    6 points aurumtt

    You're being obtuse. Everybody knows what they mean with orthodox christmas even though it is not referred like that by the orthodox church.

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    2 points Madman_Sean

    So Romanians aren't orthdoox or what

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    1 points avance70

    it's just a name, because it's in orthodox christianity, opposed to catholicism

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  • 0 points HORSECOCK_IN_MY_ASS

    Source: trust me bro

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  • 0 points Sure_Sundae2709

    The whole of Germany >25% and even higher around lake Constance? Never.

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    1 points Exile4444

    Have you looked at the forecast? Also you are reading it wrong

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  • 0 points Weak_Case_8002

    Snow? Istanbul? Christmas time? Never has been, neber will be

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  • -2 points B_pudding

    The only place in Germany with a 75%+ likelihood of snow is …. Cologne.

    Sure, why not.

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    2 points CyclingCapital

    That is not where Cologne is.

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    0 points TheRealColdCoffee

    I call bs. South hesse here. Weather forcast says its 6-8°C at Christmas with sunshine

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    0 points Erno-Berk

    No, it is the Winterberg-regio, Hochsauerlandkreis

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