I’ve been trying to formulate one persistent idea that has been nagging at me for several years. If you look at history not through the lens of countries, religions, or eras, but through modes of thinking, two remarkably stable “clusters” emerge: the Northern and the Southern. Geography matters only at the very beginning (Greece–Rome versus Egypt and Near Eastern cults); after that, it’s pure logic.

The Northern type is pragmatic. Its core impulse: “reality cannot be defeated, so it must be understood and adapted to.” Hence the cult of practice, competition, institutions, and reasoned argument. Northern thinking has a strange biology: it evolves, discarding what doesn’t work and retaining what survives the test of time. Science, the republic, decentralization, separation of powers – all grew out of this matrix. It resembles an organism that self-regulates.

The Southern type is anti-pragmatic. Its impulse: “the idea is primary; facts are secondary; reality must bend to the system of belief.” Here facts are always subordinate, while revelation, dogma, and sacred knowledge come first. This is how monotheistic religions, centralized empires, mystical cults, socialist projects, and utopias of every stripe think. Southern thinking strives for vertical hierarchies, absolute truth, and a single center. It has a different biology: instead of natural selection of ideas, there is protection and imposition of ideas.

Now for the strangest part. If you trace the fate of societies, you see not just a difference but a recurring cycle of interaction. The Northern mode builds functioning institutions; the Southern mode infiltrates them through networks – like a soft ideological infection. And almost always the result is the same: weakening of competition, decay of institutions, centralization of power, loss of self-regulation. Then comes economic and cultural decline.

Rome is the perfect example. A Northern core polishes institutions to perfection. Then a wave of Southern cults, theocracy, imperial absolutism, ideologization of the economy – and everything falls apart. Exactly the same cycle occurred in Byzantium, Rus, pre-Renaissance Europe, 19th-century Germany, the countries of the socialist bloc. Different scenery – same mechanism.

The reverse pattern is equally regular. As soon as Northern technologies for spreading thought appear (literally technologies), society explodes into development. The printing press lifts Europe faster than all the monastic schools of a thousand years combined. The return to Aristotle transforms entire regions faster than conquests do. And every time this was accompanied by a surge in practice, science, self-government, wealth – everything that grows out of the adaptive mode.

Short formula of the model:

Everything that brings thought closer to reality and to practical testing is a product of the Northern mode;

Everything that substitutes idea for reality and diverts from testing is a product of the Southern mode.

This is not good vs. evil. Not races, not ethnicities, not peoples. Two modes of thinking that compete inside every society and even inside every individual’s head.

I’m curious how viable this model is as an analytical tool. Where does it break down? Where does it help explain strange historical leaps? And how legitimate is it in general to think in terms of “civilizational modes” instead of the usual politics/religion/economics triad?

  • You'll be interested in the concept of African Time (here's Wiki) vs European Time. Also, the movie Empire of Dust is highly recommended.

    The contrast between the two concepts, roughly, is the following:

    The Europeans say that time is an independent entity that flows and passes on its own accord. It can be measured but not influenced. In fact it is speculated that the ability to measure time since the ancient Greeks (or even earlier, see Stonehenge etc) gave rise to the European concept. Northern Europe's harsh climate makes this a necessity in the Darwinian sense, if you don't build stock for the winter during the warm season you simply die.

    The African concept of time sees time as a consequence of human action, that no time passes if and as long man doesn't make it happen - nothing's happening means no time passes. The consequence is that present and future are largely irrelevant, they're a small share of our existence, of history if you will. Quite the contrary, almost everything is in the past; notably this past is one unstructured heap due to the the absence of time passing. Seasons are largely inexistent in subsahara Africa, stuff grows basicall all year round so there was no need to build stock in order to prepare for the inevitable harsh times i.e. no need to plan for the future. As a consquence the culture sees no need for maintenance and replacements, repairs are a nuisance, and development of new stuff like building roads is futile.

    The movie is on a Chinese development company's engineer in the DRC where he's to build a road and the issues he faces. The DRC gained independence from Beldium in 1960, the road is a replacement for a road built by the Belgians that has been very badly maintained and is now in complete disrepair. The concept of African Time helps explain the movie, it demonstrates its effect on real life. Enjoy!

    Seasons are largely inexistent in subsahara Africa, stuff grows basicall all year round

    Spoken like an ignorant European who knows nothing about African climate. It is 2025, a ten second google search could have revealed just how badly mistaken your opinion was.

    Sub-Saharan Africa generally has two seasons, a dry season and a rainy season, but even that can vary across the many climate zones. Sub-Saharan Africa is huge, nearly two and a half times bigger than the entire USA, and includes 47 countries. It is the height of ignorance to claim that the entire sub-Saharan region of Africa has the same climate and no seasons.

    You would be outraged if somebody claimed that far northern Sweden and the French Riviera had the same climate, or southern Florida and northern Washington state. You are being every bit as outrageously wrong about Africa, and that's not on.

    The differences between the wet and dry seasons are profound, and farmers absolutely have to be aware of the seasons. They also have to plan for the inevitable droughts and floods.

    Nothing in the Wikipedia page you link to supports the idea that "The African concept of time sees time as a consequence of human action, that no time passes if and as long man doesn't make it happen".

    Africans, along with many other people in the world, may or may not have a more relaxed concept of time than Europeans, but that doesn't mean that they have a solipsistic view that time only occurs so long as people make it happen. They know about seasons, they know about the progression of day to night, they understand that if you leave a garden untended the passage of time will see it taken over by weeds.

    CC u/Individual_Muscle846

    So true. Same as southeast Asia

  • I think this is one of those pernicious types of analysis that feels like it explains everything, but actually just applies to everything.

    Sure, if you look back at human history you can divide it in two:

    You can divide it into "northern" and "southern".

    You can divide it into "civilized" and "primitive".

    You can divide it into "active" and "passive".

    You can divide it into "hot" and "cold".

    Your approach, like most of these kinds of approaches, runs into major problems:

    1. It's VERY highly subjective

    Few if any society-level groups believe that "reality is subservient to my ideology". People describe ideologies as believing that because they think (rightly or wrongly) that the members of the ideology are biased by their beliefs. A scientist will say that a religious cult is subservient to their ideas because they reject the reality of science. A cult will say scientists are subservient to their beliefs because they don't accept the reality of Beelzebub the Great.

    This doesn't mean those two are equally true, but it means that to use your framework we need to decide the truth of these things ourselves. That means the way we have to separate societies into these two groups is by our own analysis of what "reality" is, which is much harder when the comparisons or examples are less obvious. This leads me to my core point:

    1. It relies largely on logic without empirical analysis

    Logic alone is a bad tool to analyze history. A very bad tool. Pure logic, the kind that can prove mathematical statements, can say basically nothing about history. History is too complex to fit into formal logic. This isn't a criticism of formal logic, but rather a statement that logic alone is not the appropriate tool for this. No amount of examples can prove a rule in pure logic, so data-based analysis can't really be done with logic alone.

    The other more common kind of "logic" is just "does my argument feel like it makes sense or does it have obvious holes?". That's also a bad tool for analyzing history, because contradictory things about history can both make sense at the same time. The statements you make in your examples are basically all of this type.

    The solution to this is to complement this logic with objective empirical tests that can say limited but (probably) true things about the world. These kinds of binary frameworks never do this, mostly because empirical analysis of history is really hard.

    The reason the framework feels like it works so well is because of my third point:

    (cont)

    1. The framework only works because we have a priori knowledge of the outcomes

    Frameworks like this rely heavily on the fact that, retrospectively, we can identify which societies broadly "succeeded" and which "failed" by whatever metric the framework evaluates them. This analysis doesn't start with "let's look at Roman society and analyze it from the ground up"; The surface-level analysis you provide stems from a short list of cherry-picked examples of why the society belongs to group A or B. This isn't purposeful cherry-picking, but the kind of cherry-picking that occurs naturally when the facts you know about what caused an outcome lean heavily on your knowledge of what that outcome was.

    The Romans believed in a bunch of gods that weren't real, and they put those beliefs over reality in many cases, dedicating huge effort to building temples and monuments with no practical value. Doesn't that make them a "Southern" society? Of course not, that was just an exception. Or maybe we can come up with a minor reason why it was actually totally practical to do all of this.

    The most renowned Greek philosophers often rejected ideas on the basis of the "beauty". They believed that truth and beauty went hand in hand, and this was a part of their analytic framework. I struggle to think of a more "southern" idea, but I doubt that you would label Greek society as "southern" because of it.

    Without fail, these "two types of society" systems always end up ignoring the internal complexities of historical societies. They need to, because actually trying to determine whether a society belonged to "broad and vague category A" or "broad and vague category B" is impossible without years of analysis per society.

    ***

    Your framework relies heavily on subjective analysis of cultures and societies, and provides no way to deal with the dissonance that every culture contains both true and false understandings of reality. It takes a trivially obvious point ("societies which have more true beliefs about reality are more successful") and tried to frame empirical results as being explainable by this without using any actual empirical analysis.

    I don't deny for a second that true beliefs lead to successful societies, I just don't think trying to separate all historical societies into the binary categories of "smart and grounded in reality" vs "delusional and regressive" is going to get you anywhere.

    So yeah:

    • Beliefs that correspond to reality work.
    • Beliefs that don't, don't.
    • Some societies have more of one than the other.

    To throw it back into your court: where do you think this analytic framework would grant us understanding that we don't already have? What does it tell us that we don't already know about historical societies? How can we apply it to modern society without presuming whatever beliefs we happen to have are the "smart and grounded in realitynorthern" ones?

    we can identify which societies broadly "succeeded" and which "failed"

    Sure. All societies have failed, except for the ones that haven't failed yet.

    I don't deny for a second that true beliefs lead to successful societies

    I do. Plenty of societies have true beliefs, and have failed, and plenty of successful societies have become successful in spite or, or perhaps because of, their false beliefs.

    To take a simple example: the mythology of the formation of Rome did not prevent Rome becoming a mighty power.

    Sure. All societies have failed, except for the ones that haven't failed yet.

    That's true. What I'm really talking about is we can identify whether societies were "succeeding" or "failing" at a particular time in history.

    I do. Plenty of societies have true beliefs, and have failed, and plenty of successful societies have become successful in spite or, or perhaps because of, their false beliefs.

    That's also true. Really what I meant to say (and I think what I did say before some careless editing) was that societies with more true beliefs tend to be more successful by most metrics. One of the major pan-historical examples being the ideas and beliefs underlying technology.

  • two remarkably stable “clusters” emerge: the Northern and the Southern. Geography matters only at the very beginning (Greece–Rome versus Egypt and Near Eastern cults);

    Considering the difference in available technology, Ancient Egypt's engineering feats was every bit as impressive as that of Rome, perhaps even more so.

    The Greeks literally learned mathematics from Egypt (and Babylon).

    Ironically, while the "Southern" Egyptians used mathematics for practical engineering, it was the "Northern" Greeks who considered mathematics to be sacred and mystical -- and for a double dose of irony, it was that irrational belief in the sacredness of mathematics that encouraged the Greeks to develop elegant mathematical proofs rather than being satisfied with practical "good enough for engineering" like the Egyptians.

    after that, it’s pure logic.

    So this "North/South" divide is irrelevant. If it is primarily about logic, why the racist "North/South" terminology when by your own admission the geography doesn't matter?

    Do you think that the northern barbarians of Scandinavia were more analytical and rational than the Southern European Greeks?

    Where do the Sumerians and Babylonians and other middle eastern countries fall in you dichotomy? They invented agriculture while north Europeans were hunter-gatherers. They invented writing. And they did so while believing an awful lot of superstitious nonsense.

    How about China, the longest-lasting, most successful culture of all time? They independently invented agriculture and writing too.

    Rome is the perfect example. A Northern core polishes institutions to perfection.

    Ah, let's have a look at that "Northern core":

    The Roman national myth is based on the fantasy that the two founders of Rome, Romulus and Remus, were raised by wolves. The Romans believed in a pantheon of hundreds of gods and goddesses, not a single one of which actually existed. That's your reality-based culture.

    These myths were not false beliefs that only entered Rome at the end, causing it to collapse. They were part of Roman culture from the very beginning.

    The Romans excelled at four things:

    • Engineering, much of which they adapted from others.
    • Cruelty.
    • Warfare.
    • And delusional beliefs about their national origins.

    Where are these institutions that were polished to perfection?

    Their mathematics was almost non-existent, aside from what little arithmetic was needed for trade. Roman numerals held European mathematics back for hundreds of years, until Arabic numerals eventually arrived and displaced the Roman way of doing arithmetic.

    The printing press lifts Europe faster than all the monastic schools of a thousand years combined.

    Yes, technology matters. Being able to print dozens or hundreds of copies of a book in the time it would take to hand-copy one book makes a big difference to the ability to spread knowledge. This has nothing to do with "Northern" and "Southern" ways of thinking. The printing press was used to print pure nonsense just as much, if not more often, than it was used to print truth.

    The return to Aristotle transforms entire regions faster than conquests do.

    And yet if there is anything more divorced from reality and science than Aristotelian philosophy, I cannot think what it is.

  • You would realize your post doesn't make sense if you bother to study history, not only humans (and the societies they build) aren't so simplistic but all the examples you made are objectively wrong.

    Take socialism (which you consider southern aka evil), it was made by a German (northern) philosopher inspired by a classical greek philosopher, Plato (which according to your own reasoning would also be a northerner)

  • So Conservatives= Northerns and Progressives=Southern?

    How did you get that out of the text? Science, the republic, separation of powers? How are any of those the result of being conservative?

    Science = A woman is a biological female. Reality cannot be defeated, so it must be understood and adapted to.

    Hence the cult of practice, competition, institutions, and reasoned argument.  = Free competition and reasoned argument is mostly practiced by conservatives.

    the republic = republicans always insists that it's not a democracy, it's a democratic republic.

    separation of powers = conservatives always pushes for small government and for decisions to be made in state level, not federal level.

    Science is by its nature a progressive pursuit because it is constantly evolving. Conservatism fights against progress and tries to keep things more like they have always been.

    Freedom of speech is purely a liberal idea in that you should be able to say what you want.

    Republics were born out of authoritarian states when progressive people decided having an autocrat might not be a great idea. Separation of powers the same thing.

    I know you are an American and you are viewing the text from an American’s POV. Still, most of your analysis is completely wrong. Also, not being able to read a text like this without pulling it into your ”my team, your team” politics seems you are way too culture war -brained, and that is not healthy.

    I know you are an American and you are viewing the text from an American’s POV.

    You're wrong.

    And sure, my analysis can be wrong too, but it's my first thought upon reading. On a closer inspection I think it's not really a good model as it seems to favor "Northern Mode" more than it does the Southern one. There's barely any pros to "Southern Mode."

    Well yeah, the model is terrible. The north is everything that moved civilizations forward and south is everything weird people tend to do.

    Which is what makes me wonder why would you as a centrist label the north as conservative and south as progressive. Conservatives were not the champions of science, separation of powers or any of the things listed as ”north” when they were applied in history.

    Your post would be accurate 10 years ago.

    These days, "conservatism" has shifted toward anti-science, centralized authority, emotion over reason, and in-your-face populism.