Queue the 'data isn't real', or the belief that we have been in a recession for years, or the claim that we can't afford Funko Pops, which implies we are in a recession, or the assertion that the definition has changed, or whatever absurd qanon nonsense I've been reading on Reddit since 2020.
I mean trump did fire that one girl who posted the correct job report numbers and said it was "fake news" lol, so people might speculate/public distrust. not saying i agree, but i understand why people would.
These are the same people who think a 2.7 inflation rate is a sign of the apocalypse but Joe Biden’s 9.1 inflation rate was a sign of a healthy economy.
I have a feeling of mental clarity when I read shit like this. I’m almost gaslit on a daily basis with people who don’t think these stats are real. Thanks for touching grass brother
One was after the pandemic and Trump printed money like it was free paper. The other is 5 years later and continues to climb. I’m not surprised a typical Trump slurper doesn’t understand economics
Yep, it's already happening. I comment on some stock related subs, and someone is saying the numbers must be not real because their restaurant is dead compared to last year.
No idea how their restaurant can be dead compared to last year to be honest, because that definitely isn't what I'm seeing in my area. Not saying this can't happen somewhere in the country, but it isn't a reflection of the country as a whole.
Every restaurant I’ve been to in the last several months has been packed. Texas Roadhouse was slammed, every booth full at Applebees and Chili’s, driver thrus wrapped around the buildings at Wendy and McDonald’s. Either those commenting back to you are blind, live under a rock or are lying to themselves.
Nah that one guy's resteraunt was the only one that mattered, if he's not getting customers then the only possible explination is that every American everywhere is unable to afford going out to eat
>someone is saying the numbers must be not real because their restaurant is dead compared to last year.
I just find it hilarious (yet sad) how anecdotes are perfectly admissible on reddit when they are pro-left narrative, but when an anecdote supports a right-wing narrative it's suddenly "Source? Studies? Stats? Anecdotes aren't evidence!".
Maybe they run some kind of non-gmo, all-organic, vegan Everything In A Smoothie restraunt that was getting kickbacks from some kind of NGO while being propped up by virtue-signaling cultists who worked as DEI consultants at Twitter, now known as X.
I'm being satirical, but the internet is anonymous and anyone can claim to be a business owner and that they are doing well/poorly to justify one political party over the other.
Same with gas cost some one stated that nowhere is gas less then 2.00 and here I am filling up my tank at the time with 1.98 gas while it might be true gas in say LA isnt 2 bucks a gallon in rural NC it absolutely is. We let our confirmation bais rule our world
It was 1.78 in my city last week lol. And that was before the .15 discount for the member program! I’ve been driving for 17 years and it’s the cheapest I’ve ever seen it by far.
Yep, that's my experience everywhere I go. Either some redditors live in some towns that are really struggling, or they simply aren't getting out enough to see how businesses are generally thriving.
To be honest, I shared the same information during the previous presidency. The econ doomers kept saying that hyperinflation and the housing crash and great depression were coming. It never occurred, and they got uncomfortable every time I shared new data that showed they were mistaken.
Interacting with them is what motivated me to create a subreddit about this phenomenon.
I was in that sub for a few months. Thoroughly enjoyed the anti-data arguments, but then it just depressed me seeing so many people heart and soul believe that life is so fucking terrible.
So now I'm here where we can just make fun of them instead. Still depressing sometimes, but now it's funny too! Much better.
Don’t know how anyone can’t believe this. I’m in Florida and it’s insane rn. Can’t even go on the streets that drive past the mall. I’ll sit for 15-20 min just to go through 3 red lights because it’s so backed up. I go out and see all the bars and restaurants packed
I saw the same thing happen in Ontario, Canada in 2018 when we elected a Conservative Premier... Don't get me wrong, I'm no right winger but the lefties were literally blaming him for electricity prices ON ELECTION NIGHT.
It was a great example of a retard playing 4d chess, too, because the outgoing Liberal Premier had signed contracts which prevented utilities from raising rates for a couple years which expired during the new guy's term. She also signed them after her team all but knew they were going to lose the election.
GDP up⬆️ - Inflation down; Stock markets at/near record highs!!! Dems’ predicted complete destruction of the US economy is delayed another quarter (again).🤣
Don’t they get tired of being so constantly wrong? 🤣
Meta-doomers mirror exactly what they criticize. Cherry picking information to validate their own views, while discounting information counter to their preferred narrative. Reality exists as it is, not as it was or how you wish it to be.
GDP is not related to gun crime and minorities... Do not derail a topic or try and twist the subject in an effort to inject politics, agendas or other out-of-line subjects into posts when that is not the submission’s inherent purpose.
Though does the stock market rising benefit people more than a growth in industry or jobs? The stock market growing seems to mostly benefit large financial institutions or the upper class since the vast majority of stocks are owned by the upper class.
Funny... When the market was down it was all "muh 401k!!!!!!!". When the market ACTUALLY goes up though, "does it really benefit people?".
You remind me of my FIL... Earlier this year he doomed about he "lost 30% of his portfolio" in like a month or whatever. When I asked him how he was doing compared to 12 months earlier, though, "well... Uh... That's uh...". Because he was up quite a bit. Had a similar chat last month... "How's that "down 30%" going?"... Immediately pivoted to POTENTIAL Doom because he's up quite a lot this year.
I'm not saying that stock market rises don't benefit the working class, I'm just trying to point out that stock market increases where 4 AI companies are passing money around for an infinite stock price glitch don't benefit the working class as much as actual growth in the job market or wage rises
When you take out all the positive, only negative points are left? Whoa...
Also, isn't building out our economy around emerging technology generally considered desirable? Hillary Clinton said she was going to turn all the coal miners into software devs. Now that's actually happening and people are dooming about it?
"If you overlook massive industries growth, its actually not a lot of growth"
So, tbis is kinda where trickle fown economics actually comes in.
See what happens is first you have huge investments in new sectors of the economy like tech.
This result in a lot of construction and other jobs, software engineering data center workers, electricians, plumbers maintenance professionals etc. As a result of all these people having money I. Their community, they have to purchase goods and will eant to purchase services.
That means businesses around them will see increases in customer spending in line with more jobs that are paying well.
In turn that means these businesses will also start to thrive more and will habe more funds to spend.
This is how a large manufacturing investment flows throughout a community. Not only is there a surge of lower-skill manual labor but it also created a lot of trade jobs, and also a lot of higher education jobs. It doesn't cater growth to one group.
It also means you will develop a skilled worker base in order to pass this work on to the next generation of americans because you've created value in learning the skills again
I feel like the gdp growth is in sectors where efficency is greater than job and wage stagnation in others. I feel like in my experience we are replacing 2-3 median or below median jobs with 1 higher paying and better cost to revenue ratio.
So where number goes up, general public sentiment is going down. Is this a bad thing? Not to the degree the doomerism is showing. But I do believe it will have longer term negitive effects that will push us into a mild recession.
Im already seeing it in my market segment where its "shits hitting the fan for the entire industry." Where we are fighting tooth and nail to try and stay profitable as one of the most profitable globally in our sector. Where competitors who didn't read the writing on the wall are shuttering plants and we are in talks to absorb some of them to get better economies of scale to stay afloat.
We are on hiring freezes, increase freezes, and telling other buisness units that we cant approve things unless there is clear definable returns. Even if it would be a postive impact to end users and potentially increase market share. As we are looking at 1% market share costing us more than it would return at this moment. Which is never a good position to be in. Essentially growth has been capped at how can we make more off the current holdings without losing base.
But I do believe it will have longer term negitive effects that will push us into a mild recession.
Rule 7
No Doom Predictions
Statements that predict doom about any subject; such as the economy (“It’s a bubble”) or world events (“New York has fallen”); without a short-term forecasts, or strategy outlines are strictly forbidden. Any predictions made must be backed up (example below) and logical. Share your 1 year plan. Failure to comply with this rule will result in a ban.
Example: "We will enter a recession by mid-2026, leading to a 30% decline in the stock market. Here are my plans to prepare."
This isn't a doom prediction its a viewpoint based on my antydoctyl observations. Its not even a doom prediction its a "there might be a speed bump in this market transition."
If you think we are heading towards a recession, crash, etc. You have to provide your one-year plan on how you intend to get ready and what you expect to happen.
Not following these instructions will lead to a ban.
Do not derail a topic or try and twist the subject in an effort to inject politics, agendas or other out-of-line subjects into posts when that is not the submission’s inherent purpose.
Looking pretty steady for t he last 3 years outside of some hiccups.
A real analysis would look at more than raw hollistic numbers though, for example how does inflation play into this? This is not some aggregated metric, this is number go up metrics. If we've inflated more and looking to add more debt... no promising. We'd hope that gdp would outpace inflation.
Idk where these jobs are. I still know lots of college graduates that were let go and still not working. My own company is closing locations as we speak and location managers are become sales people at other sites. Maybe there are more jobs but if there are any at my company it is because people took demotion at another site over termination. And my company is not a direct sale we are closing because our customers are closing.
We're not really into meta-discussions about the state of the sub. Political labels don't matter to us, and we don't stress over how others interpret the sub.
You either like the sub or you don't. It's not supposed to be that complicated. If everything seems political to you, that's probably a personal issue you should address.
Do not derail a topic or try and twist the subject in an effort to inject politics, agendas or other out-of-line subjects into posts when that is not the submission’s inherent purpose.
Do not derail a topic or try and twist the subject in an effort to inject politics, agendas or other out-of-line subjects into posts when that is not the submission’s inherent purpose.
It's partially due to the recovery after the quarter where gdp growth hit negative.
if an economy recesses in one period, the next period will show stronger growth, but not enough to offset the potential growth if the economy didn't recess.
Q1 2025 recessed by around half a % so the growth on the next quarters will look stronger than it otherwise would have been.
Budget deficit has increased somewhat compared to 2024, that plays a role in the gdp growth.
I mean Biden tried to play the same game Trump is playing here: saying the economy is good because of the stock market, (in Biden’s case) the jobs numbers, or any other indicator that shows something positive. That play didn’t work out very well for Biden and I don’t think it’s going to work out well for Trump.
To be fair, the first 2 quarters have been extremely slow and lots of big businesses and investors have played their hands close to their chest. I'm in the pipeline business and deal with purchasing equipment and materials for our company and the tariffs have thrown a ton of plans off course this year. We are finally starting to pick up, though, and are very hopeful for this last quarter and next year.
Sorry to say, but a month or so ago our Prime Minisher voted down the pipeline they promised you'd be building. Don't expect any help from your friends to the north.
First the provinces won't agree because they each want the lion's share of revenue (BC pretends it is environmental but theyve 180'd on that stuff in the past when enough cash got involved).
Second, Canada's letter parties (Libs, NDP) talk out of both sides of their mouths on resource extraction. They have green lit projects only to pull the rug out after years of investment in the past when it's more beneficial to slogan about the environment.
Depends on what you mean by "near" future. Next 5 years? Probably not. Next 10? Maybe, if the Cons win the next election in 2030. But not before 2030 at least; the current Lib government voted against it unanimously and is going to be in power at least until then.
It's possible, I suppose, that Alberta separation becomes a real enough issue that the Feds are forced to cave to Alberta on this, but honestly I think Carney is actually such an ideologue that he would rather Alberta leave than cede on this (or any other) issue. Despite that Alberta is the only profitable province in Canada (Ontario and Quebec have larger budgets, but they spend more than they earn)
if we take out the mag 7 it is a recession, and before you say "hurdur number go up though", the mag 7 is mostly software with a sprinkle of computer power and overvalued pseudo luxury cars
the point is is that literally everything else on average isnt growing, this means healthcare, construction, education, manufacturing, agriculture, retail, etc etc aka the things that actually matter and correlate to median wealth and quality of life, this means that either the economy is stagnating/receeding, or monopolies are increasing
GDP growth is largely inertial. What you see in any given quarter is mostly the result of decisions, investments, and policies made years earlier, not a sudden effect of who’s in office right now.
I mean unemployment is nearing 5%, inflation is nearly 3%. People are spending more on everyday goods because of the tariffs and inflation, which is causing total consumer spending to increase. GDP growth is exclusively being pushed up by the rich and corporate investment. The economy is doing great for the rich but pretty fucked for everybody else.
There's nothing unusual about those figures. Bankruptcies and foreclosures are sitting at low or average levels. Since 2020, we've seen a bump from near record lows.
And nobody credible, not even the Federal Reserve, is forecasting a bad Q4.
This is the same doomsday attitude I've been hearing from Reddit users for ages.
When I post Q4 stats, someone inevitably says, "Oh yeah, just wait for the next one!"
Not only are the delinquency rates not unusual, most economists actually point to them as evidence at just how well the economy is doing. We are ending year 4 of the very high Fed interests rate, and yet delinquencies have only slowly climbed over that period.
Meanwhile, outstanding credit card delinquency rates are at heights previously only seen in 2009 and 2011, a trend that began in Q3 2023, and broke out in Q1 2024. Auto loan delinquencies are at an all time high. I would be forecasting a good Q4 myself, if not for how good Q3 was.
In what world are the figures reported by Fool there GOOD? The flows into delinquency are hovering, but people aren't LEAVING delinquency, leading to a slowly spiralling buildup of bad debt
You don't really get the data, and you're just being fed sensationalized news for ad clicks.
Adjusted for inflation, the average household’s creditcard balance is actually well below the record high at the end of 2007.
and you're looking at subprime autoloans. The worst loans , for people that will probably default.
Thus creditcard debt is a non issue and subprime autoloans don't drive GDP or the overall economy.
Honestly, this has nothing to do with the GDP report, and you're just spreading lame articles that's better suited for a different subreddit or thread.
Bankruptcies are being held at bay by bursts of accelarated spending due to fear of tariffs (which may have ironically been one of the things holding the economy up), and there's also the fact that most consumer spending is now done by the top 10% of consumers... Who are getting their gains from the stock market... Largely driven by overhype of a technology that currently produces little profit, fails 95% of the time (so we should really see 5% of current load multiplied by expected future adoption as its sustainable use case in the future) (imo anyway) - and vast stock multiplication caused by deceptive business practices where money is being passed in a circle around a handful of companies and treated as massive revenue, when... That revenue is really just a smaller quantity of money going around repeatedly. Now tech giants are trying to pretend to look better than they are by extending the shelf life of chips in their paperwork.
If you subtract the revenues from circular deals from NVDA's balance sheet, its p/e ratio starts to look a bit more spooky.
Like, it's not all gloom. The fed's FINALLY gotten rates closer to a neutral rate, maybe things will pick up again! But I feel like for things to recover throughout the economy, credit card interest rates need to fall back to 2019 levels, and we are a LONG way off that. As much as redditors like to say it, the rich do not get richer when the poor get poorer - for the poor are the customers of the rich. Things could recover, but there's a narrow tightrope to walk.
The other positive thing I see is inflation. It's increasingly looking permissive for more rate cuts, which could help things. The USD isn't about to collapse like the true doomers seem to think (it actually strengthens in global recessions), and government spending's dropped in real terms something like 7-9% year on year, which should help reduce inflationary influx further and help with more rate cuts. There IS a path to recovery, and even if a crash hits, it'll probably be temporary (and combined with a collapse of consumer spending because so much of current consumer spending is based on equity prices) and followed by an extreme economic boom. But as much as reddit can be toxically pessimistic, that isn't to say that everything is perfectly fine.
Anyway, that's why I am invested in 30 year US treasuries. USD is stronger than the doomer hype has to say, but the economic outlook is still looking fragile. Not doomed - but definitely fragile. That is precisely the environment where US treasuries shine. Doomer hype about the USD just gives 'em a steep discount. If it falls, I get more buying opportunities with my coupon payments ;)
I wonder if thats adjusted for in the numbers I honestly dont know id like to see how the numbers are accounted for how do you adjust for XYZ factor.
If every single item in the US went up by 1 dollar GDP would surge. I assume they take that into account in some kind of way right?
I've been told that GDP means something and nothing at the same time. For example if i tell you i will pay you 1 trillion to dig a hole and then you pay me 1 trillion to fill the hole GDP just went up 2 trillion but nothing happened.
Inflation is looking pretty good, but unemployment's trend is scary
The scary thing is that if inflation is looking pretty good AND something which should be causing inflation (like tariffs) is being implemented, it means that companies are swallowing the losses because they know consumers can't take any more.
The currency doomers are overblowing the situation, but the economy is looking pretty trash atm
Don't be dumb? Are you 5? Also, a true statement isn't against the rules. You might want to read your own rules and check yourself bud. BTW, you just violated rule 4.
Queue the 'data isn't real', or the belief that we have been in a recession for years, or the claim that we can't afford Funko Pops, which implies we are in a recession, or the assertion that the definition has changed, or whatever absurd qanon nonsense I've been reading on Reddit since 2020.
Face it Doomers, you suck at basic economics.
so reddit believed the job loss data but any positive data is faked...
Duh!
It's Reddit. The shitlibs infest this site like ticks on a stray dog.
Welcome to being on the "wrong side" of the propaganda wall.
I mean trump did fire that one girl who posted the correct job report numbers and said it was "fake news" lol, so people might speculate/public distrust. not saying i agree, but i understand why people would.
The job loss data where Trump fired the person who reported it, hired a sycophant, and then released new jobs numbers a few weeks later?
Which ones did we believe - the first or second set? Which did you believe?
Stop being stupid. It's against the rules.
These are the same people who think a 2.7 inflation rate is a sign of the apocalypse but Joe Biden’s 9.1 inflation rate was a sign of a healthy economy.
For real. How the fuck does that happen
The inflation was fake until January 20th
I have a feeling of mental clarity when I read shit like this. I’m almost gaslit on a daily basis with people who don’t think these stats are real. Thanks for touching grass brother
One was after the pandemic and Trump printed money like it was free paper. The other is 5 years later and continues to climb. I’m not surprised a typical Trump slurper doesn’t understand economics
Democrats are shit at the economy so it's clearly Trump's fault
Bidens 2021 stimulus is what spiked inflation, not Trumps 2020 packages …
Would you prefer a depression? You want inflation to nominally grow.
Oh don't worry, they'll just say that Trumple fudged the numbers.
Yep, it's already happening. I comment on some stock related subs, and someone is saying the numbers must be not real because their restaurant is dead compared to last year.
No idea how their restaurant can be dead compared to last year to be honest, because that definitely isn't what I'm seeing in my area. Not saying this can't happen somewhere in the country, but it isn't a reflection of the country as a whole.
Every restaurant I’ve been to in the last several months has been packed. Texas Roadhouse was slammed, every booth full at Applebees and Chili’s, driver thrus wrapped around the buildings at Wendy and McDonald’s. Either those commenting back to you are blind, live under a rock or are lying to themselves.
Nah that one guy's resteraunt was the only one that mattered, if he's not getting customers then the only possible explination is that every American everywhere is unable to afford going out to eat
Clearly the economy is the reason why that restaurant is failing and not any other reason why a business wouldn't succeed.
>someone is saying the numbers must be not real because their restaurant is dead compared to last year.
I just find it hilarious (yet sad) how anecdotes are perfectly admissible on reddit when they are pro-left narrative, but when an anecdote supports a right-wing narrative it's suddenly "Source? Studies? Stats? Anecdotes aren't evidence!".
Maybe they run some kind of non-gmo, all-organic, vegan Everything In A Smoothie restraunt that was getting kickbacks from some kind of NGO while being propped up by virtue-signaling cultists who worked as DEI consultants at Twitter, now known as X.
I'm being satirical, but the internet is anonymous and anyone can claim to be a business owner and that they are doing well/poorly to justify one political party over the other.
Same with gas cost some one stated that nowhere is gas less then 2.00 and here I am filling up my tank at the time with 1.98 gas while it might be true gas in say LA isnt 2 bucks a gallon in rural NC it absolutely is. We let our confirmation bais rule our world
It was 1.78 in my city last week lol. And that was before the .15 discount for the member program! I’ve been driving for 17 years and it’s the cheapest I’ve ever seen it by far.
Not sure what that would be inflation adjusted but I know it would be a crazy comparison. It’s only 2.22 where I am and I’m fine with that.
It's not sub 2.00 in the cities yet but outside LA and places with notoriously high prices it's getting close.
I went to frickin chilis the other day and even that was jam packed
Yep, that's my experience everywhere I go. Either some redditors live in some towns that are really struggling, or they simply aren't getting out enough to see how businesses are generally thriving.
I think they just straight up lie to backup their beliefs lol
I don't consider myself a doomer and I hope the numbers are real, but with the firing of the last BLS head, it's not exactly confidence-inspiring.
I'll be every administration tries to fudge the numbers some though.
But wut about muh Empty Shelves and Empty Ports?!
It’s because HE TACO’d the tariffs!
These people will simply ignore the data. They refuse to acknowledge anything good as long as Trump is President.
To be honest, I shared the same information during the previous presidency. The econ doomers kept saying that hyperinflation and the housing crash and great depression were coming. It never occurred, and they got uncomfortable every time I shared new data that showed they were mistaken.
Interacting with them is what motivated me to create a subreddit about this phenomenon.
Basically the only consistent position is to either be bullish during biden AND trump, or to be bearish during biden AND trump
A healthy economy can take tariffs, an unhealthy one cannot.
If Biden did a great job, then Trump's policies aren't gonna do much harm.
If Biden did a terrible job, then Trump's policies are a game of chicken with recession.
A lot of people are just partisan.
I was in that sub for a few months. Thoroughly enjoyed the anti-data arguments, but then it just depressed me seeing so many people heart and soul believe that life is so fucking terrible.
So now I'm here where we can just make fun of them instead. Still depressing sometimes, but now it's funny too! Much better.
The left: “There’s gotta be something wrong about this” 🤔
Don’t know how anyone can’t believe this. I’m in Florida and it’s insane rn. Can’t even go on the streets that drive past the mall. I’ll sit for 15-20 min just to go through 3 red lights because it’s so backed up. I go out and see all the bars and restaurants packed
It’s amazing how far leftists will go to lie about literally everything, including current economic conditions.
According to those dipshits the economy was great under Biden, and exactly 2 hours into Trump being in office it went to shit, instantly.
Complete lemmings
I saw the same thing happen in Ontario, Canada in 2018 when we elected a Conservative Premier... Don't get me wrong, I'm no right winger but the lefties were literally blaming him for electricity prices ON ELECTION NIGHT.
It was a great example of a retard playing 4d chess, too, because the outgoing Liberal Premier had signed contracts which prevented utilities from raising rates for a couple years which expired during the new guy's term. She also signed them after her team all but knew they were going to lose the election.
The Conservative Premier of Ontario is like super openly corrupt, like so many scandals its crazy.
So was the previous Liberal Premier of Ontario. It's almost like all of our politicians suck.
GDP up⬆️ - Inflation down; Stock markets at/near record highs!!! Dems’ predicted complete destruction of the US economy is delayed another quarter (again).🤣 Don’t they get tired of being so constantly wrong? 🤣
Insert the standard mean orange man is just claiming credit for biden's great economy excuse!!! 🙄
Meta-doomers mirror exactly what they criticize. Cherry picking information to validate their own views, while discounting information counter to their preferred narrative. Reality exists as it is, not as it was or how you wish it to be.
Imagine how much money these doomers have lost by selling stock to hold cash
"Bump before the dump!" -Reddit probably
“Food riots by Thanksgiving, and revolution by Christmas!”
I’d bet my best pair of socks they use the exact same line next year.
Before this turns into a pissing contest, it's always important to ask "what is this good/bad economic news doing for me".
If you don't have a job or can't find a better job, US GDP numbers don't meant shyte.
If you have a good job, then US GDP numbers don't mean shyte.
Take a deep breath, and spend more time on your local and personal economy rather than worrying what "The US" is doing.
Nvidia/Google/Microsoft/Whoever skying isn't necessarily relevant to you.
yeah unless you’re directly YOLOing calls / puts on these guys it’s irrelevant
Can’t trust these numbers sorry. If only we were as open and honest as China 🇨🇳 🤡
No no you don't understand, bigger than expected GDP increase is actually a BAD thing.
It means it will increase by a lower amount eventually.
Oh we’re in a recession, trust me bro! Just because Elon isn’t in a recession doesn’t mean REAL people aren’t in a recession.
(More or less what I hear all across Reddit.)
Just wait it is happening tomorrow just trust me on this bro.
Ok, yes, but how much of that is just people hyping AI stocks?
If you take away the top tech stocks we are in a recession and have been lol.
Yes, when you omit growth, there's less growth.
LMAO 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
[removed]
GDP is not related to gun crime and minorities... Do not derail a topic or try and twist the subject in an effort to inject politics, agendas or other out-of-line subjects into posts when that is not the submission’s inherent purpose.
Rule 10: Remain On-Topic
Though does the stock market rising benefit people more than a growth in industry or jobs? The stock market growing seems to mostly benefit large financial institutions or the upper class since the vast majority of stocks are owned by the upper class.
Funny... When the market was down it was all "muh 401k!!!!!!!". When the market ACTUALLY goes up though, "does it really benefit people?".
You remind me of my FIL... Earlier this year he doomed about he "lost 30% of his portfolio" in like a month or whatever. When I asked him how he was doing compared to 12 months earlier, though, "well... Uh... That's uh...". Because he was up quite a bit. Had a similar chat last month... "How's that "down 30%" going?"... Immediately pivoted to POTENTIAL Doom because he's up quite a lot this year.
I'm not saying that stock market rises don't benefit the working class, I'm just trying to point out that stock market increases where 4 AI companies are passing money around for an infinite stock price glitch don't benefit the working class as much as actual growth in the job market or wage rises
When you take out all the positive, only negative points are left? Whoa...
Also, isn't building out our economy around emerging technology generally considered desirable? Hillary Clinton said she was going to turn all the coal miners into software devs. Now that's actually happening and people are dooming about it?
"If you overlook massive industries growth, its actually not a lot of growth"
So, tbis is kinda where trickle fown economics actually comes in.
See what happens is first you have huge investments in new sectors of the economy like tech.
This result in a lot of construction and other jobs, software engineering data center workers, electricians, plumbers maintenance professionals etc. As a result of all these people having money I. Their community, they have to purchase goods and will eant to purchase services.
That means businesses around them will see increases in customer spending in line with more jobs that are paying well.
In turn that means these businesses will also start to thrive more and will habe more funds to spend.
This is how a large manufacturing investment flows throughout a community. Not only is there a surge of lower-skill manual labor but it also created a lot of trade jobs, and also a lot of higher education jobs. It doesn't cater growth to one group.
It also means you will develop a skilled worker base in order to pass this work on to the next generation of americans because you've created value in learning the skills again
Was at Macy's over the weekend... wall to wall shoppers, everyone was in a cheerful mood.. oh no one's! Doom delayed
A good economy is actually bad. I'll explain
Ever heard of "dead cat bounce?"
It's only the 1 percenters.
We're experiencing a recession if you overlook the massive growth from the companies I don't like.
Look, I was correct; it's basically the Great Depression at this moment.
I had to educate myself on "dead cat bounce".
The biggest problem with that is that there wasn't the prolonged steep decline preceding the bounce.
Q1 sucked, but Q2 and now Q3 were good.
Maybe Q2 was the bounce. But if so, then Q3 should return back to the Q1 numbers, right?
I'm hoping for the best. I think the economy is going to go amazingly well in 2026.
I feel like the gdp growth is in sectors where efficency is greater than job and wage stagnation in others. I feel like in my experience we are replacing 2-3 median or below median jobs with 1 higher paying and better cost to revenue ratio.
So where number goes up, general public sentiment is going down. Is this a bad thing? Not to the degree the doomerism is showing. But I do believe it will have longer term negitive effects that will push us into a mild recession.
Im already seeing it in my market segment where its "shits hitting the fan for the entire industry." Where we are fighting tooth and nail to try and stay profitable as one of the most profitable globally in our sector. Where competitors who didn't read the writing on the wall are shuttering plants and we are in talks to absorb some of them to get better economies of scale to stay afloat.
We are on hiring freezes, increase freezes, and telling other buisness units that we cant approve things unless there is clear definable returns. Even if it would be a postive impact to end users and potentially increase market share. As we are looking at 1% market share costing us more than it would return at this moment. Which is never a good position to be in. Essentially growth has been capped at how can we make more off the current holdings without losing base.
Rule 7
No Doom Predictions
Statements that predict doom about any subject; such as the economy (“It’s a bubble”) or world events (“New York has fallen”); without a short-term forecasts, or strategy outlines are strictly forbidden. Any predictions made must be backed up (example below) and logical. Share your 1 year plan. Failure to comply with this rule will result in a ban.
Example: "We will enter a recession by mid-2026, leading to a 30% decline in the stock market. Here are my plans to prepare."
This isn't a doom prediction its a viewpoint based on my antydoctyl observations. Its not even a doom prediction its a "there might be a speed bump in this market transition."
If you think we are heading towards a recession, crash, etc. You have to provide your one-year plan on how you intend to get ready and what you expect to happen.
Not following these instructions will lead to a ban.
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AGI better come soon else the bubble will just pop
You must comply with Rule 7
Idiot libtards talking about a “K” shaped economy over in the economy and economics subreddits
Looking pretty steady for t he last 3 years outside of some hiccups.
A real analysis would look at more than raw hollistic numbers though, for example how does inflation play into this? This is not some aggregated metric, this is number go up metrics. If we've inflated more and looking to add more debt... no promising. We'd hope that gdp would outpace inflation.
Idk where these jobs are. I still know lots of college graduates that were let go and still not working. My own company is closing locations as we speak and location managers are become sales people at other sites. Maybe there are more jobs but if there are any at my company it is because people took demotion at another site over termination. And my company is not a direct sale we are closing because our customers are closing.
I suspect a lot of college graduates were let go because companies are not playing the woke games, anymore.
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We're not really into meta-discussions about the state of the sub. Political labels don't matter to us, and we don't stress over how others interpret the sub.
You either like the sub or you don't. It's not supposed to be that complicated. If everything seems political to you, that's probably a personal issue you should address.
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This is so timely. I was just listening to someone opine about the inevitability of ai and offshoring destroying our country.
Such bullshit. The evidence is just the opposite.
It's 1 decent quarter lol
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Recession: 2 consecutive quarters of circa 4% GDP growth 🤣
It's partially due to the recovery after the quarter where gdp growth hit negative.
if an economy recesses in one period, the next period will show stronger growth, but not enough to offset the potential growth if the economy didn't recess.
Q1 2025 recessed by around half a % so the growth on the next quarters will look stronger than it otherwise would have been.
Budget deficit has increased somewhat compared to 2024, that plays a role in the gdp growth.
I dont think this means the economy is good for the average American.
Sure, it doesn't matter when it's up. But when it's down, it's like the world is ending.
The same goes for the stock market.
People on Reddit really enjoy being in denial.
I mean Biden tried to play the same game Trump is playing here: saying the economy is good because of the stock market, (in Biden’s case) the jobs numbers, or any other indicator that shows something positive. That play didn’t work out very well for Biden and I don’t think it’s going to work out well for Trump.
Now do trade deficit
To be fair, the first 2 quarters have been extremely slow and lots of big businesses and investors have played their hands close to their chest. I'm in the pipeline business and deal with purchasing equipment and materials for our company and the tariffs have thrown a ton of plans off course this year. We are finally starting to pick up, though, and are very hopeful for this last quarter and next year.
Sorry to say, but a month or so ago our Prime Minisher voted down the pipeline they promised you'd be building. Don't expect any help from your friends to the north.
Isn't that just temporary? That pipeline could still happen in the near future from what I understand.
Doubtful for a couple reasons.
First the provinces won't agree because they each want the lion's share of revenue (BC pretends it is environmental but theyve 180'd on that stuff in the past when enough cash got involved).
Second, Canada's letter parties (Libs, NDP) talk out of both sides of their mouths on resource extraction. They have green lit projects only to pull the rug out after years of investment in the past when it's more beneficial to slogan about the environment.
Depends on what you mean by "near" future. Next 5 years? Probably not. Next 10? Maybe, if the Cons win the next election in 2030. But not before 2030 at least; the current Lib government voted against it unanimously and is going to be in power at least until then.
It's possible, I suppose, that Alberta separation becomes a real enough issue that the Feds are forced to cave to Alberta on this, but honestly I think Carney is actually such an ideologue that he would rather Alberta leave than cede on this (or any other) issue. Despite that Alberta is the only profitable province in Canada (Ontario and Quebec have larger budgets, but they spend more than they earn)
It definitely not related to recent AI circular investments.
Oh shutup
The data may not be fake but the data also isn’t as good as the headline, frontloaded EVs, medical expenditure shot up before EOY
This GDP report does not contain EOY data.
if we take out the mag 7 it is a recession, and before you say "hurdur number go up though", the mag 7 is mostly software with a sprinkle of computer power and overvalued pseudo luxury cars
"if we remove growth from the growth, we have less growth"
lol
the point is is that literally everything else on average isnt growing, this means healthcare, construction, education, manufacturing, agriculture, retail, etc etc aka the things that actually matter and correlate to median wealth and quality of life, this means that either the economy is stagnating/receeding, or monopolies are increasing
So where is the actual evidence beyond this foolish meme?
Should you be in r//pokemon or something? damn
GDP growth is largely inertial. What you see in any given quarter is mostly the result of decisions, investments, and policies made years earlier, not a sudden effect of who’s in office right now.
Thought being stupid was against the rules.
I never brought up the politics of who's in office. Sounds like that's your obsession, not mine.
I've been sharing economic data nearly every quarter since 2021.
This sub is ridiculous.
I mean unemployment is nearing 5%, inflation is nearly 3%. People are spending more on everyday goods because of the tariffs and inflation, which is causing total consumer spending to increase. GDP growth is exclusively being pushed up by the rich and corporate investment. The economy is doing great for the rich but pretty fucked for everybody else.
You do realize that 5% unemployment and 3% inflation is fairly typical and normal?
What's unusual is the level of consumer credit delinquency, auto loan failure rate etc.
Tariffs are driving a lot of growth because people are frontloading their purchases to avoid them, but that usually has a payback period
Assuming no more tariffs are implemented, expect Q4 to be nasty
There's nothing unusual about those figures. Bankruptcies and foreclosures are sitting at low or average levels. Since 2020, we've seen a bump from near record lows.
And nobody credible, not even the Federal Reserve, is forecasting a bad Q4.
This is the same doomsday attitude I've been hearing from Reddit users for ages.
When I post Q4 stats, someone inevitably says, "Oh yeah, just wait for the next one!"
Same thing happened when I shared Q2
Not only are the delinquency rates not unusual, most economists actually point to them as evidence at just how well the economy is doing. We are ending year 4 of the very high Fed interests rate, and yet delinquencies have only slowly climbed over that period.
Meanwhile, outstanding credit card delinquency rates are at heights previously only seen in 2009 and 2011, a trend that began in Q3 2023, and broke out in Q1 2024. Auto loan delinquencies are at an all time high. I would be forecasting a good Q4 myself, if not for how good Q3 was.
In what world are the figures reported by Fool there GOOD? The flows into delinquency are hovering, but people aren't LEAVING delinquency, leading to a slowly spiralling buildup of bad debt
You don't really get the data, and you're just being fed sensationalized news for ad clicks.
Adjusted for inflation, the average household’s creditcard balance is actually well below the record high at the end of 2007.
and you're looking at subprime autoloans. The worst loans , for people that will probably default.
Thus creditcard debt is a non issue and subprime autoloans don't drive GDP or the overall economy.
Honestly, this has nothing to do with the GDP report, and you're just spreading lame articles that's better suited for a different subreddit or thread.
Bankruptcies are being held at bay by bursts of accelarated spending due to fear of tariffs (which may have ironically been one of the things holding the economy up), and there's also the fact that most consumer spending is now done by the top 10% of consumers... Who are getting their gains from the stock market... Largely driven by overhype of a technology that currently produces little profit, fails 95% of the time (so we should really see 5% of current load multiplied by expected future adoption as its sustainable use case in the future) (imo anyway) - and vast stock multiplication caused by deceptive business practices where money is being passed in a circle around a handful of companies and treated as massive revenue, when... That revenue is really just a smaller quantity of money going around repeatedly. Now tech giants are trying to pretend to look better than they are by extending the shelf life of chips in their paperwork.
If you subtract the revenues from circular deals from NVDA's balance sheet, its p/e ratio starts to look a bit more spooky.
Like, it's not all gloom. The fed's FINALLY gotten rates closer to a neutral rate, maybe things will pick up again! But I feel like for things to recover throughout the economy, credit card interest rates need to fall back to 2019 levels, and we are a LONG way off that. As much as redditors like to say it, the rich do not get richer when the poor get poorer - for the poor are the customers of the rich. Things could recover, but there's a narrow tightrope to walk.
The other positive thing I see is inflation. It's increasingly looking permissive for more rate cuts, which could help things. The USD isn't about to collapse like the true doomers seem to think (it actually strengthens in global recessions), and government spending's dropped in real terms something like 7-9% year on year, which should help reduce inflationary influx further and help with more rate cuts. There IS a path to recovery, and even if a crash hits, it'll probably be temporary (and combined with a collapse of consumer spending because so much of current consumer spending is based on equity prices) and followed by an extreme economic boom. But as much as reddit can be toxically pessimistic, that isn't to say that everything is perfectly fine.
Anyway, that's why I am invested in 30 year US treasuries. USD is stronger than the doomer hype has to say, but the economic outlook is still looking fragile. Not doomed - but definitely fragile. That is precisely the environment where US treasuries shine. Doomer hype about the USD just gives 'em a steep discount. If it falls, I get more buying opportunities with my coupon payments ;)
Just two more weeks!!!
I wonder if thats adjusted for in the numbers I honestly dont know id like to see how the numbers are accounted for how do you adjust for XYZ factor.
If every single item in the US went up by 1 dollar GDP would surge. I assume they take that into account in some kind of way right?
I've been told that GDP means something and nothing at the same time. For example if i tell you i will pay you 1 trillion to dig a hole and then you pay me 1 trillion to fill the hole GDP just went up 2 trillion but nothing happened.
That's right, nothing happened.
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Inflation is looking pretty good, but unemployment's trend is scary
The scary thing is that if inflation is looking pretty good AND something which should be causing inflation (like tariffs) is being implemented, it means that companies are swallowing the losses because they know consumers can't take any more.
The currency doomers are overblowing the situation, but the economy is looking pretty trash atm
4.3% and still not paying down the national debt? Sounds stable to me.
Don't be dumb. It's against the rules.
Don't be dumb? Are you 5? Also, a true statement isn't against the rules. You might want to read your own rules and check yourself bud. BTW, you just violated rule 4.