You know what? I don't think he'd have to, at least not officially.
Latvia has almost 25% of ethnic Russians, so it might make sense for Putin to conduct massive anti-russian propaganda to provoke some crimes against local Russians or, if that fails, launch a massive covert false flag operation. Pretty much like the "Chechen" terror bombings in Moscow that would eventually trigger a war.
Then suddenly green soldiers without designations would appear and a strong separatist movement within Latvia would do its utmost to destabilize the region. Meanwhile an outcry in mother Russia over the murdered Russians would leave him no choice but to support the local separatist movement.
The name of the game is civil war, a war which doesn't fall under NATO's article 5.
So yeah, he'll probably do something like that but not this year, there's not enough time.
Well as a Lithuanian, I can definitely tell you that Putin is testing what he can get away with.
A few weeks ago some russian forces crossed into Estonia and got off on Estonian land and then dipped instantly.
Russian drones all of the sudden started crashing in Lithuania and Poland.
Contraband balloons kept flying into Lithuania until they magically stopped after Lukashenko promised they'd stop if they ease sanctions, heavily implying that the Belarussian state which is closely tied to Putin was responsible for destabilising my country.
Russian fighter jets keep violating NATO airspace for the lols.
Undersea cables in the Baltic Sea get mysteriously cut by ships that sailed from Saint Petersburg.
Not going to mention all the useful idiots Russian actors keep paying to do their dirty work in the EU. One example is that a year or two ago here in Lithuania some russians promised a Ukrainian boy a BMW if he set off an incendiary bomb in an IKEA store.
And I can keep going on and on about all the ways that Russia is testing us.
Russia forces, wasnt that like 2 dude walking a boarder wall that for like 300ft dips into estonia then back into russia. They walked the Russian side through the dip and never went over the knee high wall and stayed on the russia side the whole time? I remember this being big in western news and estonia news going "yeah this is a nothing burger.
A solid 90% of the news is a nothingburger that gets blown up because the 24-hour news cycle has to justify itsself and the average person in a first world country needs to panic about something to avoid facing how mundane their existence is.
I did some more research and it was 3 russian border guards went across the Narva River to the Estonian side, they got off on Estonian land and then hopped back in their hovercraft and swam back to Russia.
Are you retarded? How do you think Russia is make ANY gains in Ukraine? By sending 2848292 men in a huge attack? No, they are sending them onesie twosie to break through lines and then they join up with other onesie twosie groups in whatever town they enter.
Even Putin knows not to mistake NATO's patience and hesitance to go to war for the inability to do. He is playing a game where he must keep the stakes of any conflict he starts below a threshold at which NATO decides the risks of acting are worth it, because if we actually went to war Russia would be doomed and it wouldn't be close.
Our greatest fear right now is that Putin is in an inevitable lose lose situation of his own making and he cannot deescalate. We are not afraid of losing to Russia but more worried about the literal fallout of the last desperate acts of a dictator with nothing left to lose. Russia will collapse at some point, the question is how many it takes out with it and how much damage control can we do.
I have no idea what kind of 4D chess move Putin is trying to make by repeatedly provoking Europe into increasing defence spending with all of those shenanigans he's doing honestly.
If I'd want to have a better chance in a war with NATO, I'd rather rearm myself instead of slowly provoking NATO into rearming itself even more.
Europe is unlikely to increase its defense spending in any significant manner for a long period of time. After decades of living in an environment which outsourced most of its defense needs to the US its unlikely that the european population, which is highly socially liberal and has repeatedly rejected nationalistic proposals since 2014, will feel motivated to fight let alone accept a cut on their standard of living and social services to prepare for a conflict many perceive as distant.
If the US continues to withdraw from European affairs I doubt the EU will find it easy to defend its interests with a population that severely lacks an appetite for war.
I completely agree. Though my country of Lithuania on paper increased defence spending to 5.38% of GDP, apparently 3% of that "might" (aka definitely will be) used for "dual purposes" like paving some roads instead of actually buying air defence systems and shit.
God, this government is so incompetent we're so screwed.
I wouldn't underestimate the importance of roadways in moving goods, heavy equipment, and civilians in the event of war. That's one of the unspoken reasons the US invested in it's highway infrastructure in the late 20th century.
Yes, I do see the benefits of having roads to move stuff, but when war comes, one of the first things that you do is destroying bridges and other sorts infrastructure to weaken army logistics.
A quick google search claims that more than 26 thousand kilometers (16000 miles in freedom units) of roads have been damaged or destroyed in Ukraine.
Plus, a lot of roads aren't fit for having heavy army equipment like tanks to run on them.
I just think that spending more than half of the defence budget on things unrelated to the army, especially when the government has been yelling about the need for a new army division to be up and running by 2027, is not the wisest decision
Thats all true but its also nothing new. Hell russian fighter jets have been "testing" the limits even as far as buzzing Ireland and the UK since the 60s and you cant get much further west in europe without hitting iceland.
I'm Swedish and Russia has been dipping it's jets in our airspace for some ~50 odd years now. We're used to it by now.
It's flexing and testing response times. Just being belligerent for its own sake.
Russia is a gnat that keeps annoying everyone.
There are more opposition to them now. Back then there was a "crisis" every few couple years and they had to rattle their sabers and flex their muscles. Now there's a crisis every few months.
I believe they're just feeling weak thanks to the Ukraine war and are trying to project strenght.
It's when animals are at their weakest they lash out the most!
Blowing up Nord Stream (was definitely not them that's for sure), Operation Spiderweb (pretty much openly planned by British special forces), intelligence aid to Ukraine, missiles to Ukraine, Finland/Sweden into NATO, "Steadfast Defenser" biggest NATO exercises ever on their border, western troops in Ukraine killing Russians (British Special Forces are there), mysterious fires in Russia, etc, etc
Could probably get a way longer list with some googling.
Well you could argue strongly that Western support for Ukraine and involvement in the 2014 Revoltion directly led them to doing that. Provocations in Syria and such also predate 2021.
Ultimately Russia operates on neorealism, even the USA normally does, so their actions are entirely in accordance to how a state would act in that situation. You can't really hold it against the Russians acting in the way they openly act, if we had someone with a brain like Bismark in charge of our foreign policy their never would have been a war.
Well no, what led them to that was the EU's weak response to the 2014 invasion. They chose to build the Nord Stream and become energy dependant on Russia rather than increasing their defense budgets.
The response was weak as most people with a brain knew they were justified to take that action. Any western power would have invaded in the same situation, they should have fully invaded in 2014 and annexed the whole thing, would have saved a lot of agro.
nah, this is just a failure of the western establishment in responding to Russian military operations on their border. they were happy enough to throw Georgia under the bus 2008, they didn't take their security assurances to Ukraine seriously in 2014, and they were slow to respond to the latest escalation with the invasion. or is your argument that the war in Georgia was also provokes by the west?
mind you, I am not that emotionally invested into this bourgeois conflict, even though I do sympathise with the people being invaded and the soldiers losing their lives for "neorealism".
lol the people on this subreddit would’ve downvoted the exact same comment about Ukraine before the invasion. They’d all be downplaying and saying Russia will never invade Ukraine. This sub is just Russian/ right wing propaganda. When they are wrong they will never admit it. I’m sure a bunch of them now will deny that they wouldn’t think Russia would invade Ukraine.
Doomer dualism - Russia is at the same time it will fall over itself in days if we just keep funneling all our money to Ukraine and able to take over entire Europe the moment it wants to.
I live in Poland, I know those guys are dangerous. But they arent even able to man their NATO borders currently and have their hands plenty busy with Ukraine and even without it they cant start fullscale war again Europe and hope to win. What's up with all the fearmongering lately?
Failed miserably at a February invasion that is still ongoing, so they're going to scale the failure up and try to take on a NATO country, betting on no response. Yeah, that sounds logical. Or, just someone coming up with an excuse for why they didn't buy gifts for their family this year 😂
The assessment at the beginning of invasion was that Russia would take complete control in at most 6 months. They have failed to to achieve that mission
thats a subjective estimation by whoever came to the conclusion. this entire conflict has showed me young men are chomping at the bit to have something to stand for, even if its the other side of the world where white brothers are killing eachother enmass. and the media loves fueling the whites killing whites while they flush our countries with the third world. not dooming, this is reality.
A demented drug addict with a knife is no match for a fully equipped police squad, as they'd easily subdue or shoot him, but that doesn't mean the drug addict will not try and attack them, even severely or lethally harm one officer.
The moscovite state is demented, and while NATO would pullverize it, we shouldn't think they will not attack us.
They are trying to undermine our unity, probe our resolve, all the while trying to undermine our democracies (look at their attempt in Romania, or Hungary as it is right now).
Only through readiness to destroy russian forces without hestitation, building up our collective secutiry, and showing that a non-NATO state like Ukraine is fully aided in stopping the invader, do we prevent Białystok or Narva from becoming another Mariupol.
Paradoxically, it makes sense for Russia to launch a small scale probing attack against an eastern European country for several reasons.
They don't need a full scale invasion of Europe, and they don't need to win anything. A probing attack against a smaller neighbor would likely divert European supplies from Ukraine. At best they take a bunch of land and keep it as a bargaining chip, but at worst they're pushed back at a cost to NATO in lives, which would be very unpopular in Europe, and Europe considers Russia a more immediate threat and devotes more resources for deterrence on their own borders. Either way, it helps divert European assistance and attention from Ukraine.
They have nothing to lose. If they're pushed back to their borders, they will use the threat of strategic nukes to preserve their territory. Any NATO response will likely be limited to retaking any lost territory or repelling the attack.
Now is the time. The Trump admin seems dead set on isolationism and loath to help Europe or Ukraine. There's a distinct possibility that the US provides little more than logistical support, if that, if/when Article V is invoked, and that would be a strategic dagger to US and European relations. If the US denies boots on the ground and air support, Europe is on a much weaker position. Still probably more than enough to take on a relatively small Russian probe, but not nearly as powerful as a US backed NATO.
From a risk/reward standpoint, there is a lot of upside if you don't care about wasting your troops' lives, which Russia doesn't. I don't think it'll actually happen, but I wouldn't be surprised if it did.
You need good propaganda to turn Russians into dumb orcs that utilize shovels and human wave attacks, but you also need propaganda to increase military spending and bring back conscription.
Poland has way better army than pre war Ukraine and no breakaway regions with population that sympathizes with Russia, Putin isnt dumb to attack you
People tend to assume that because Putin is arrogant and conceited that he must be stupid. Put in is not stupid. He got into Ukraine to get better access to Crimean natural gas and as a bonus, reclaim former soviet territory to solidify his name in Russia's history. It was arrogant but to invade another country now that the Russian war economy has just stabilized would be actually stupid and might even lose him some Ukrainian territory.
Russia would first "win" in ukraine, then in 2027 with all their war factories pumping drones etc they could definently make an attempt with all they learned from ukraine war into some baltic country like Estland and expect nato to do nothing about it
If they had managed to steamroll Ukraine like their propaganda pushed in the beginning, I could conceive of something like that but it would be very foolish. Ukraine has lucrative natural resources that can justify a campaign. Any other target country would need something more than bragging rights to Putin in my opinion.
Crimea's greatest value is the naval base in Sevastopol that allows them to access Mediterranean reliably. It's basically the only Russian warm-water port, they've owned it for roughly the same time the United States existed as a recognized state, so of course they wouldn't want to give it to NATO folks.
Bruh Russia doesn't have the manpower, armor, or aircraft to even think about poking NATO. We like to imaging the Russia has this inexhaustible supply of manpower and enough tanks to fill the English channel enough for an armored division to drive from Calais to London.
The truth is that Russia has less than half the population of the US, and anything less modern than a T-90 is little better than target practice for NATO tanks. To say nothing of the fact the Russia cant even get air superiority over a country with a fraction of its air force and no ability to conduct effective SEAD operations in its next door neighbor.
you do have a point i did say in early February 2022 it was fear mongering to say Russia would invade Ukraine
as for now almost 4 years later ?
if anything if Russia does anything
it will be opening up a second front in Ukraine through Belarus with the 360,000 troops they got stationed there the whole point of doing that would be to force Ukraine to divide it's resources and ideally make it easier to gain ground in the East
Article 5 indeed doesn't work. Anyone read it? It doesn't force any country to send their soldiers anywhere. Even EU has better safeguards but putin thinks Eu is probably nothing without USA. kasparov is a dumbass though
Friendly reminder that just because somebody is talented in one field DOES NOT MEAN THEY ARE SMART OR KNOWLEDGEABLE IN ANY FIELD OUTSIDE OF THEIR SPECIALTY.
Theres a reason why Jordan Belfort targeted doctors and well respected professionals for his finance scams and pump n dumps, its because they not only have money but they are stubborn enough to fall for these scams. You'd be surprised how many academics, doctors, and the like will fall for clear scams or join the WSB crowd, just take a look at the biggest losses on WSB, how do you think most were able to build up 7 figures in savings only to lose it only a stupid naked options bet on GME.
These same people were 100% assuring everyone Putin won't invade Ukraine when Shell, ExxonMobil etc were planning to pump oil next to Russia's shores. Despite warnings of US Intelligence.
Its all propaganda and lies until it happens. But im telling you we are gonna be hearing this type of rhetoric until ukraine either surrenders or russia goes bankrupt. So I would just ignore everything until that happens.
don't worry guys russia is totally inept and stupid, their economy is going to collapse despite them somehow owning america's president and also after they bleed off their entire military on ukraine they are going to invade the entirety of europe just like my video games say!
Guys hes right. Russia is failing to win the war in Ukraine, only managing to push forward through high casualty attritional slogs and depleting equipment reserves.
Obviously the genius Putin will jeopardize all this extremely grueling progress by checks notes provoking military conflict with the top military alliance chain on the planet.
Its so funny to me that the people who claim he is losing in Ukraine and his troops are old men and prison convicts, his military equipment is all old trash weapons etc are they same who thinks he can just attack all of Europe.
Russia is gonna russia. Poke here, poke there. Poked too hard oh shit! oops! Ukraine was clearly more than a poke but the thing is they've always poked at EU and at the same time EU pokes them. It's old people still mad or sad about the USSR going away. 'Good'ol days' folks. The thing people miss is that if you sanction and politically harass another nation enough, they're eventually going to react the only way they see fit to drive a message. Include Russia in more deals, extend them to be part of NATO, bring them into the fold and let them play. "the competition, the labor rates, the CHILDREN!" learn to compete, no crying in the casino. And they're not going to invade the rest of the EU, if for any reason, they can't afford it, and they lack the ability unless they whip at the nuclear boom-sticks which would make the whole thing pointless anyway. They can't even pay north korea for shells, NORTH KOREA. That's like being so broke you can't pay the crazy homeless guy back the dime he gave you.
Rofl at Putin invading a Nato country? Who is spreading this bullshit? I will eat my ass if he does that. Fucking western propaganda to make us pay more war tax? Enlighten me, please!
Putin is your president’s best friend. This is literally a retread of hitler and Stalin. MAGAts will invade from the west when Russia makes their move. France will surrender preemptively. We’ve seen all of this before.
Well, Gary Kasparov has been campaigning publicly against Putin since the 2000s. Especially since he is one of the highest profile Russians in the world who the Russian government probably won’t try to kill for doing so.
No, he won't.
You know what? I don't think he'd have to, at least not officially.
Latvia has almost 25% of ethnic Russians, so it might make sense for Putin to conduct massive anti-russian propaganda to provoke some crimes against local Russians or, if that fails, launch a massive covert false flag operation. Pretty much like the "Chechen" terror bombings in Moscow that would eventually trigger a war.
Then suddenly green soldiers without designations would appear and a strong separatist movement within Latvia would do its utmost to destabilize the region. Meanwhile an outcry in mother Russia over the murdered Russians would leave him no choice but to support the local separatist movement.
The name of the game is civil war, a war which doesn't fall under NATO's article 5.
So yeah, he'll probably do something like that but not this year, there's not enough time.
Well as a Lithuanian, I can definitely tell you that Putin is testing what he can get away with.
A few weeks ago some russian forces crossed into Estonia and got off on Estonian land and then dipped instantly.
Russian drones all of the sudden started crashing in Lithuania and Poland.
Contraband balloons kept flying into Lithuania until they magically stopped after Lukashenko promised they'd stop if they ease sanctions, heavily implying that the Belarussian state which is closely tied to Putin was responsible for destabilising my country.
Russian fighter jets keep violating NATO airspace for the lols.
Undersea cables in the Baltic Sea get mysteriously cut by ships that sailed from Saint Petersburg.
Not going to mention all the useful idiots Russian actors keep paying to do their dirty work in the EU. One example is that a year or two ago here in Lithuania some russians promised a Ukrainian boy a BMW if he set off an incendiary bomb in an IKEA store.
And I can keep going on and on about all the ways that Russia is testing us.
Russia forces, wasnt that like 2 dude walking a boarder wall that for like 300ft dips into estonia then back into russia. They walked the Russian side through the dip and never went over the knee high wall and stayed on the russia side the whole time? I remember this being big in western news and estonia news going "yeah this is a nothing burger.
A solid 90% of the news is a nothingburger that gets blown up because the 24-hour news cycle has to justify itsself and the average person in a first world country needs to panic about something to avoid facing how mundane their existence is.
I did some more research and it was 3 russian border guards went across the Narva River to the Estonian side, they got off on Estonian land and then hopped back in their hovercraft and swam back to Russia.
Are you retarded? How do you think Russia is make ANY gains in Ukraine? By sending 2848292 men in a huge attack? No, they are sending them onesie twosie to break through lines and then they join up with other onesie twosie groups in whatever town they enter.
Even Putin knows not to mistake NATO's patience and hesitance to go to war for the inability to do. He is playing a game where he must keep the stakes of any conflict he starts below a threshold at which NATO decides the risks of acting are worth it, because if we actually went to war Russia would be doomed and it wouldn't be close.
Our greatest fear right now is that Putin is in an inevitable lose lose situation of his own making and he cannot deescalate. We are not afraid of losing to Russia but more worried about the literal fallout of the last desperate acts of a dictator with nothing left to lose. Russia will collapse at some point, the question is how many it takes out with it and how much damage control can we do.
I have no idea what kind of 4D chess move Putin is trying to make by repeatedly provoking Europe into increasing defence spending with all of those shenanigans he's doing honestly.
If I'd want to have a better chance in a war with NATO, I'd rather rearm myself instead of slowly provoking NATO into rearming itself even more.
Europe is unlikely to increase its defense spending in any significant manner for a long period of time. After decades of living in an environment which outsourced most of its defense needs to the US its unlikely that the european population, which is highly socially liberal and has repeatedly rejected nationalistic proposals since 2014, will feel motivated to fight let alone accept a cut on their standard of living and social services to prepare for a conflict many perceive as distant.
If the US continues to withdraw from European affairs I doubt the EU will find it easy to defend its interests with a population that severely lacks an appetite for war.
Europe should re-arm anyway, so this isn't a terrible outcome.
I completely agree. Though my country of Lithuania on paper increased defence spending to 5.38% of GDP, apparently 3% of that "might" (aka definitely will be) used for "dual purposes" like paving some roads instead of actually buying air defence systems and shit.
God, this government is so incompetent we're so screwed.
I wouldn't underestimate the importance of roadways in moving goods, heavy equipment, and civilians in the event of war. That's one of the unspoken reasons the US invested in it's highway infrastructure in the late 20th century.
Yes, I do see the benefits of having roads to move stuff, but when war comes, one of the first things that you do is destroying bridges and other sorts infrastructure to weaken army logistics.
A quick google search claims that more than 26 thousand kilometers (16000 miles in freedom units) of roads have been damaged or destroyed in Ukraine.
Plus, a lot of roads aren't fit for having heavy army equipment like tanks to run on them.
I just think that spending more than half of the defence budget on things unrelated to the army, especially when the government has been yelling about the need for a new army division to be up and running by 2027, is not the wisest decision
Blah blah blah that's all I hear from you pearl clutching socialist.
Thats all true but its also nothing new. Hell russian fighter jets have been "testing" the limits even as far as buzzing Ireland and the UK since the 60s and you cant get much further west in europe without hitting iceland.
I'm Swedish and Russia has been dipping it's jets in our airspace for some ~50 odd years now. We're used to it by now. It's flexing and testing response times. Just being belligerent for its own sake. Russia is a gnat that keeps annoying everyone.
Sure, but they seem to be escalating things more and more recently
There are more opposition to them now. Back then there was a "crisis" every few couple years and they had to rattle their sabers and flex their muscles. Now there's a crisis every few months. I believe they're just feeling weak thanks to the Ukraine war and are trying to project strenght. It's when animals are at their weakest they lash out the most!
How dare you state facts???
dont try and talk sense to bots or ppl from third world countries bro
Do you think we aren't testing them similarly?
How so? We aren't crossing into Russia and running out before we get caught like it's ding dong ditch.
We are expanding NATO and have since world war 2. Some of you commies need a good history book instead of the filth you were taught.
[removed]
Blowing up Nord Stream (was definitely not them that's for sure), Operation Spiderweb (pretty much openly planned by British special forces), intelligence aid to Ukraine, missiles to Ukraine, Finland/Sweden into NATO, "Steadfast Defenser" biggest NATO exercises ever on their border, western troops in Ukraine killing Russians (British Special Forces are there), mysterious fires in Russia, etc, etc
Could probably get a way longer list with some googling.
Funny how this was all done after Russia invaded their neighbor.
Well you could argue strongly that Western support for Ukraine and involvement in the 2014 Revoltion directly led them to doing that. Provocations in Syria and such also predate 2021.
Ultimately Russia operates on neorealism, even the USA normally does, so their actions are entirely in accordance to how a state would act in that situation. You can't really hold it against the Russians acting in the way they openly act, if we had someone with a brain like Bismark in charge of our foreign policy their never would have been a war.
Well no, what led them to that was the EU's weak response to the 2014 invasion. They chose to build the Nord Stream and become energy dependant on Russia rather than increasing their defense budgets.
The response was weak as most people with a brain knew they were justified to take that action. Any western power would have invaded in the same situation, they should have fully invaded in 2014 and annexed the whole thing, would have saved a lot of agro.
nah, this is just a failure of the western establishment in responding to Russian military operations on their border. they were happy enough to throw Georgia under the bus 2008, they didn't take their security assurances to Ukraine seriously in 2014, and they were slow to respond to the latest escalation with the invasion. or is your argument that the war in Georgia was also provokes by the west? mind you, I am not that emotionally invested into this bourgeois conflict, even though I do sympathise with the people being invaded and the soldiers losing their lives for "neorealism".
The Georgis War was provoked by Georgia, they acted like retards and got slapped for it.
As always blood for the blood gods just remember Russia evil and everyone else saints
lol the people on this subreddit would’ve downvoted the exact same comment about Ukraine before the invasion. They’d all be downplaying and saying Russia will never invade Ukraine. This sub is just Russian/ right wing propaganda. When they are wrong they will never admit it. I’m sure a bunch of them now will deny that they wouldn’t think Russia would invade Ukraine.
Yeah idk why people keep saying that
Doomer dualism - Russia is at the same time it will fall over itself in days if we just keep funneling all our money to Ukraine and able to take over entire Europe the moment it wants to.
I live in Poland, I know those guys are dangerous. But they arent even able to man their NATO borders currently and have their hands plenty busy with Ukraine and even without it they cant start fullscale war again Europe and hope to win. What's up with all the fearmongering lately?
Clicks. They need 'em clicks!
Failed miserably at a February invasion that is still ongoing, so they're going to scale the failure up and try to take on a NATO country, betting on no response. Yeah, that sounds logical. Or, just someone coming up with an excuse for why they didn't buy gifts for their family this year 😂
Since when did Russia "fail" in its "special military operation"?
The assessment at the beginning of invasion was that Russia would take complete control in at most 6 months. They have failed to to achieve that mission
CNN was saying Kiev will fall in 4 days when the invasion first began.
thats a subjective estimation by whoever came to the conclusion. this entire conflict has showed me young men are chomping at the bit to have something to stand for, even if its the other side of the world where white brothers are killing eachother enmass. and the media loves fueling the whites killing whites while they flush our countries with the third world. not dooming, this is reality.
As soon as it launched. Supposed to take 3 days to secure the whole country.
A demented drug addict with a knife is no match for a fully equipped police squad, as they'd easily subdue or shoot him, but that doesn't mean the drug addict will not try and attack them, even severely or lethally harm one officer.
The moscovite state is demented, and while NATO would pullverize it, we shouldn't think they will not attack us. They are trying to undermine our unity, probe our resolve, all the while trying to undermine our democracies (look at their attempt in Romania, or Hungary as it is right now).
Only through readiness to destroy russian forces without hestitation, building up our collective secutiry, and showing that a non-NATO state like Ukraine is fully aided in stopping the invader, do we prevent Białystok or Narva from becoming another Mariupol.
It good to be prepared but never ending fearmongering is not preparedness it's alarmist bs that is making population sceptical
Paradoxically, it makes sense for Russia to launch a small scale probing attack against an eastern European country for several reasons.
They don't need a full scale invasion of Europe, and they don't need to win anything. A probing attack against a smaller neighbor would likely divert European supplies from Ukraine. At best they take a bunch of land and keep it as a bargaining chip, but at worst they're pushed back at a cost to NATO in lives, which would be very unpopular in Europe, and Europe considers Russia a more immediate threat and devotes more resources for deterrence on their own borders. Either way, it helps divert European assistance and attention from Ukraine.
They have nothing to lose. If they're pushed back to their borders, they will use the threat of strategic nukes to preserve their territory. Any NATO response will likely be limited to retaking any lost territory or repelling the attack.
Now is the time. The Trump admin seems dead set on isolationism and loath to help Europe or Ukraine. There's a distinct possibility that the US provides little more than logistical support, if that, if/when Article V is invoked, and that would be a strategic dagger to US and European relations. If the US denies boots on the ground and air support, Europe is on a much weaker position. Still probably more than enough to take on a relatively small Russian probe, but not nearly as powerful as a US backed NATO.
From a risk/reward standpoint, there is a lot of upside if you don't care about wasting your troops' lives, which Russia doesn't. I don't think it'll actually happen, but I wouldn't be surprised if it did.
You need good propaganda to turn Russians into dumb orcs that utilize shovels and human wave attacks, but you also need propaganda to increase military spending and bring back conscription.
Poland has way better army than pre war Ukraine and no breakaway regions with population that sympathizes with Russia, Putin isnt dumb to attack you
A really simple way to look at fear is like this.
If you have a population you want to control and extort money from (Any government) do you want a population that is fearful or content and happy.
Fear is a lot easier to control
Took doomers long enough to start dooming over words of a guy that gets paid for fearmongering
This is not helping out famous chess player stereotypes.
This guy is absolutely insane if you have been following him over the past couple of years.
Shut up and just move the bishop, Gary
People tend to assume that because Putin is arrogant and conceited that he must be stupid. Put in is not stupid. He got into Ukraine to get better access to Crimean natural gas and as a bonus, reclaim former soviet territory to solidify his name in Russia's history. It was arrogant but to invade another country now that the Russian war economy has just stabilized would be actually stupid and might even lose him some Ukrainian territory.
Russia would first "win" in ukraine, then in 2027 with all their war factories pumping drones etc they could definently make an attempt with all they learned from ukraine war into some baltic country like Estland and expect nato to do nothing about it
If they had managed to steamroll Ukraine like their propaganda pushed in the beginning, I could conceive of something like that but it would be very foolish. Ukraine has lucrative natural resources that can justify a campaign. Any other target country would need something more than bragging rights to Putin in my opinion.
Crimea's greatest value is the naval base in Sevastopol that allows them to access Mediterranean reliably. It's basically the only Russian warm-water port, they've owned it for roughly the same time the United States existed as a recognized state, so of course they wouldn't want to give it to NATO folks.
Ukraine is doing a pretty good job of holding them up. No way in hell they take on NATO and expect anything other than an ass beating.
see thats it what we have learned in the last 3 years is Russia is struggling against a bunch of fucking farmers
Military power comparison wise
they would be FUCKED if they took on NATO
at this point I'd nearly fecking say Poland could solo them
Bro wtf is Kasparov doing?????????
Tell him to stick to chess
Bruh Russia doesn't have the manpower, armor, or aircraft to even think about poking NATO. We like to imaging the Russia has this inexhaustible supply of manpower and enough tanks to fill the English channel enough for an armored division to drive from Calais to London.
The truth is that Russia has less than half the population of the US, and anything less modern than a T-90 is little better than target practice for NATO tanks. To say nothing of the fact the Russia cant even get air superiority over a country with a fraction of its air force and no ability to conduct effective SEAD operations in its next door neighbor.
idk why someone downvoted you its true
almost 4 years in and they still have not finished off Ukraine
if they took on NATO god help them
This sub would’ve laughed at people saying Russia is going to invade Ukraine. You’re all a lot dumber than you think you are.
you do have a point i did say in early February 2022 it was fear mongering to say Russia would invade Ukraine
as for now almost 4 years later ?
if anything if Russia does anything
it will be opening up a second front in Ukraine through Belarus with the 360,000 troops they got stationed there the whole point of doing that would be to force Ukraine to divide it's resources and ideally make it easier to gain ground in the East
See you in 8 days I guess?
Article 5 indeed doesn't work. Anyone read it? It doesn't force any country to send their soldiers anywhere. Even EU has better safeguards but putin thinks Eu is probably nothing without USA. kasparov is a dumbass though
🎶Oh the weather outside is frightful, but Estonia’s so delightful; and NATO won’t say no, so we go so we go so we go🎶 - sang no one.
Lolllllol Any day now!!
Friendly reminder that just because somebody is talented in one field DOES NOT MEAN THEY ARE SMART OR KNOWLEDGEABLE IN ANY FIELD OUTSIDE OF THEIR SPECIALTY.
Theres a reason why Jordan Belfort targeted doctors and well respected professionals for his finance scams and pump n dumps, its because they not only have money but they are stubborn enough to fall for these scams. You'd be surprised how many academics, doctors, and the like will fall for clear scams or join the WSB crowd, just take a look at the biggest losses on WSB, how do you think most were able to build up 7 figures in savings only to lose it only a stupid naked options bet on GME.
These same people were 100% assuring everyone Putin won't invade Ukraine when Shell, ExxonMobil etc were planning to pump oil next to Russia's shores. Despite warnings of US Intelligence.
Wait, did that post seriously get 22k upvotes....
Kasparov lmao. This cuck is drooling over Russia fearmongering for decades now. Grift must go on.
I mean they do mass 380k of soldiers in Belarus. Sooner or later they will activate them
Its all propaganda and lies until it happens. But im telling you we are gonna be hearing this type of rhetoric until ukraine either surrenders or russia goes bankrupt. So I would just ignore everything until that happens.
Someone tell him chess and geopolitical strategy aren’t the same thing
Nothing ever happens
That's right, Nothing ever happens
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always bet on nothing
don't worry guys russia is totally inept and stupid, their economy is going to collapse despite them somehow owning america's president and also after they bleed off their entire military on ukraine they are going to invade the entirety of europe just like my video games say!
Yeah I mean it's Kasparov, one of the greatest chess player of all time, but his political analyses are not necessarily wanted...nor too trustworthy.
Guys hes right. Russia is failing to win the war in Ukraine, only managing to push forward through high casualty attritional slogs and depleting equipment reserves.
Obviously the genius Putin will jeopardize all this extremely grueling progress by checks notes provoking military conflict with the top military alliance chain on the planet.
Isn't the guy a chess player? What D chess is he playing now?
Its so funny to me that the people who claim he is losing in Ukraine and his troops are old men and prison convicts, his military equipment is all old trash weapons etc are they same who thinks he can just attack all of Europe.
GUYS
PUTIN WILL INVADE EUROPE UNLESS YOU GIVE MY FOUNDATION A DONATION OF $1000 MINIMUM
-some old money leftist politician probably
It'll be over before christmas lads
Is he including Ukraine?
Russia is gonna russia. Poke here, poke there. Poked too hard oh shit! oops! Ukraine was clearly more than a poke but the thing is they've always poked at EU and at the same time EU pokes them. It's old people still mad or sad about the USSR going away. 'Good'ol days' folks. The thing people miss is that if you sanction and politically harass another nation enough, they're eventually going to react the only way they see fit to drive a message. Include Russia in more deals, extend them to be part of NATO, bring them into the fold and let them play. "the competition, the labor rates, the CHILDREN!" learn to compete, no crying in the casino. And they're not going to invade the rest of the EU, if for any reason, they can't afford it, and they lack the ability unless they whip at the nuclear boom-sticks which would make the whole thing pointless anyway. They can't even pay north korea for shells, NORTH KOREA. That's like being so broke you can't pay the crazy homeless guy back the dime he gave you.
I’ve always contended that being skilled at chess doesn’t mean you’re smart
It's definitely the end for real this time
Because things are going so swimmingly in Ukraine he thinks he would like to add another front? 🙄
Rofl at Putin invading a Nato country? Who is spreading this bullshit? I will eat my ass if he does that. Fucking western propaganda to make us pay more war tax? Enlighten me, please!
Isn't it kind of weird that Russia is one of few countries that has every right to be Doomer, yet we see almost no Doomer talk from them?
Kasparov has been ardently against Putin for decades. I wish Gary luck.
I never see these types explain the motive, or why it would be worth the risks and tradeoffs for them to try something like that. Makes no sense
Putin is your president’s best friend. This is literally a retread of hitler and Stalin. MAGAts will invade from the west when Russia makes their move. France will surrender preemptively. We’ve seen all of this before.
The Russian winter offensive is coming! Europe is doomed! In a game if Civilization 7 of course
Is this sub pro-Russian too lol? It’s like, you are just trying to gather all of the worst opinions? Going for some kind of a world record?
Lots of analysts are saying that. So it's pretty lame for a chess champion to try and pass it off as his own idea.
Well, Gary Kasparov has been campaigning publicly against Putin since the 2000s. Especially since he is one of the highest profile Russians in the world who the Russian government probably won’t try to kill for doing so.