Thanks for the write up, didn't understand it all, but a good read.

Edit: quick update for those of you still finding this post. It's looking like there isn't as much moisture available this morning as was previously expected. A few snow showers have occurred across the Denver Metro and precipitation will continue, transitioning to rain with modest daytime heating. The chance still exists additional snow this evening, brief but heavy in some locations, but the most significant impacts will most likely occur near the Palmer Divide, particularly the southern part near Colorado Springs which has been upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning.

Do note that if any significant snow should occur around or after sunset this evening as temperatures fall, roads could get messy quickly and could continue to be messy into the morning depending on how aggressive the snow mitigation response is. So far, there doesn't seem to be much action in terms of pre-treatment of road surfaces.

The main things I got from the article as an intermediate weather enthusiast:

• Two separate systems are moving in (one from PNW and one from Mexico) that will interact
• Previously the model showed decent snow in the mountains but downsloping winds, which we've been having a lot lately.

Basically, the wind blows up against the west face of the mountains, is forced up and cools, and snow happens in the mountains. This strips out the moisture. As the wind falls down the other side, it's compressed by the higher pressure at lower altitudes, which also causes it to warm and sometimes speed up significantly. This has been happening a lot lately, and it's why the temperature is often higher on days/nights when the wind is out of the west(ish).

• Then the models shifted to basically an opposite setup with significant upslope flow.

With upslope flow, it's basically the opposite of downslope. The wind pushes up against the east faces of the mountains and is forced up, causing heavier snow in the Foothils and over the Palmer Divide. That sometimes spreads eastward.

• The latest models mentioned in the post have converged on a more moderate upslope pattern, meaning less snow for the Denver area but more towards the mountains and Foothills and Palmer Divide. But exact impacts depend on where the surface low ends up.
• The 18z (11am MST) GFS run shows significant snow from Denver International Airport to the south and west, particularly along the Palmer Divide. The 18z RDPS shows moderate snowfall but all the way down by Colorado Springs. Multiply the precip numbers by 10 to get snow estimates, so like 1-4".
• He says: "the more likely scenario that brings 2-4” to the Denver metro area and 4-10” for the foothills / Palmer Divide"
• He says that the low (the system coming in from the south) will undergo "lee cyclogenesis".
• Basically, it will interact with the downslope flow and become a "synoptic-scale extratropical cyclone" (think tropical storm, but wintry and driven by temperature differentials rather than ocean heat).
• He says that if the low ends up weak and too far north, snowfall will be fairly minimal across the I-25 corridor, but it's likely to be somewhere in the middle.
• He says that the better chances of snow may occur later in the afternoon. As the low moves out, the southwesterly flow (winds) will converge with the northwesterly flow. This could cause some brief heavier snow to move across the area with the trough from north to south in the afternoon.
• Overnight into Friday morning, the trough will undergo that same lee cyclogenesis somewhere between Pueblo and the NE corner of New Mexico. Small chances of snow for Palmer Divide and even smaller for the Denver area.

There's a whole additional analysis of the situation for the mountains, but I'm tired. Hope someone enjoys this.

I didn’t even realize it was supposed to snow tomorrow until this post so I appreciate it!

What mean smooth brain

Guess we’re calling any snow accumulation in these trying times a storm, eh?

So, three inches in the metro area max, not a single plow, everyone will chant "the sun will melt it soon," and then every road turns into a block of ice for 3-5 business days.

My kids were hoping for a snow day tomorrow but nothing is sticking. Lol.

I loved reading this! Thanks!

Travis Michaels called it. Probably the best meteorologist we have on tv right now. He said this is what would happen on Monday and it remains true.

Hahahahaha… I think it lasted 20 min :(

Woke up to less than an inch in Breckenridge 530am, we'll see...

You will explain this to Joe.

How will I-70 be tomorrow evening? Undriveable?

Could the incoming weather be causing it to smell like burning plastic? I’m in SW Denver and it smells really bad out.

Thomas! You made it to Reddit!

Interesting article. It had a lovely forecast chart referenced to Highpoint Weather - what a great find! I highly recommend checking out the platform. (I may just be living under a rock so if this isn’t a new revelation please ignore)

😮‍💨

How is the wind over there for you 😳