Welcome to Tuesday Truths, where we look at how well 79 (and counting!) teams in the top five conferences are measuring up against league opponents in conference play. For an introduction and a brief history of the origins of the Tuesday Truths column, click here.
We are back for a second season! Never mind that this column didn’t make it to March last year. We are in it for the long haul this time! Keep in mind, however, that it’s still relatively early in conference play, and these rankings are much more friendly to teams who have already played the dregs of their conference (ahem, NC State) than they will be later in the conference season.
Games through January 12, conference games only
Pace: possessions per 40 minutes
PPP: points per possession Opp. PPP: opponent PPP
EM: efficiency margin (PPP – Opp. PPP)
ACC: Wolfpack is Back, Causing Mass Destruction
The NC State Wolfpack are the current frontrunners of the ACC in terms of efficiency margin, outscoring the competition by 0.18 PPP. This accomplishment was reached with victories over Wake Forest, Boston College, and Florida State, who are currently combined 1-9 in ACC play. This is perhaps not an achievement to howl about just yet, but winning is winning, as they say. Salute to the Wolfpack faithful, who have spent more time in the Boston College neighborhood than the Duke/UVA neighborhood in recent years.
Duke, meanwhile, is ranked 6th in the AP poll but only 5th in ACC efficiency margin. To put that in perspective, Duke is currently performing at nearly the exact level as Miami four games into ACC play. Not many prognosticating pundits place Miami in the same ballpark as The Boozer Bros and the Blue Devils, but it says here that they are near equals in offensive and defensive performance so far. This is clearly the fault of the Devils’ defense, which is currently slightly worse than Boston College’s. Scheyer and Co. have some shoring up to do on that end of the court before their West Coast swing in Atlantic Coast Conference play this week (yes, that is a thing now).
Big 12: Two Top Offenses with Two Very Different Approaches
Arizona and BYU are several steps above every other offense in the Big 12, and they have arrived at this level through two very different methods.
In one corner you have BYU, which represents modern offense well. The Cougars take 41% of their shots from behind the 3 point line, spreading the floor and opening the lane for their big guys, which allows them to shoot nearly 60% from two. The defense is not too shabby either, allowing only slightly north of a point per possession through three conference games.
In the other corner you have Arizona, who ranks almost at the bottom of the country in attempted 3 pointers (28%, good for 362nd out of 365 schools) but rebound over 40% (41.1%, to be exact) of their missed shots.
Another way of visualizing this is that Arizona is playing a similar style to John Calipari’s peak Kentucky squads, while BYU is playing similarly to a classic Mark Few Gonzaga squad. What remains to be seen is if either can reach the success of their counterparts.
Big East: UConn and Seton Hall Have Defenses in a Class of Their Own
Everyone expected Dan Hurley and the Huskies to succeed this year. Meeting those expectations is no easy task, but UConn has been able to do that and then some, mostly by way of tremendous defense. The Huskies are currently allowing only 0.93 points per possession on defense, which is far and away the best defense so far in Big East play.
The only defense that comes close is possessed by none other than Shaheen Holloway’s Seton Hall Pirates. Absolutely no one expected this team to be this good this year, or to be on par with UConn in any category other than geographic proximity to the Atlantic Ocean. However, the Pirates’ defense is just three hundredths of a percentage point worse than UConn’s, and is the only other defense to allow less than a point per possession in the entire Big East. In a conference where many of the teams are performing at the level of a fresh compost pile on a hot summer day, Seton Hall’s defense may just get them enough wins to finish close to the top of the league.
Big Ten: Downright Offensive
Through roughly five games apiece, the Big Ten is averaging 1.13 points per possession. That is higher than last season’s SEC, which finished around 1.09 PPP on the year and, as far as I can tell, the highest average points per possession of any conference this millennium.
While this offensive efficiency explosion is happening all around them, Tom Izzo and the Michigan State Spartans are continuing to play like it’s 2015, and to much success. The Spartans sport the Big Ten’s best defense by a huge margin, and in fact are the only team allowing less than a point per possession in conference play. Don’t let us forget the glory days, Sparty!
SEC: Don't Get Defensive
The SEC teams have only completed three games apiece, but the offense is performing at the same rate as the Big Ten’s through said games. In the meantime, there is no Izzo-coached team holding down the fort for the old guard. Even John Calipari’s Arkansas team is defending at a very non-Classic Cal pace, in part due to being completely throttled by Auburn over the weekend.
The only team close to what would be considered an acceptable defensive efficiency rate back in the early aughts would be the defending champion Florida Gators. At the moment, they are allowing right at one point per possession, ahead of the rest of the conference by a pretty significant margin. Perhaps the Gators are getting finally getting into gear.
Who's down with OPPP?