• For those who don't want to, or will never click the article.

    Housing starts rise in November

    • Canadian housing starts climbed 9% month-on-month (m/m) to an elevated 254.1k units in November, partially offsetting October's 17% m/m decline. Stripping away monthly volatility, the six-month moving average of starts decreased 2% m/m to 264.4k units.
    • In urban markets, November's gain was driven by the multi-family sector, where starts rose by 24.4k (to 193.8k units). Meanwhile, single-detached starts were down 3% m/m to 39.7k units.
    • Starts increased in 5 of 10 provinces last month. 
      • The national gain was driven by Manitoba (+7.4k to 14.1k units), and Ontario (+11.7k to 55.1k units). However, starts in the former marked a high point since at least 1990, while Ontario merely climbed off October's lows. Starts were also up in B.C. (+6.3k to 41.6k units) and the Atlantic (+5.8k to 22.8k units), driven by New Brunswick. 
      • In contrast, starts pulled back in Alberta (-4.3k to 53.6k units), Saskatchewan (-4.6k to 3.4k units) and Quebec (-0.5k to 63.5k units).
    • Key Implications
      • There's not much surprise that housing starts flared higher in November after the prior month's outsized decline. November's gain is also in line with the rise in building permits observed in October. Ontario continues to stick out as the weakest province (by far) in terms of homebuilding, constrained by retrenching condo construction and, to a lesser extent, weakness in other types of ownership units. In contrast, starts are trending near record highs in the Atlantic and Prairies (and are well above-average in Quebec) lifted by rental construction. 
      • Even with November's gain, Canadian housing starts are cooling on a trend basis. This is consistent with our expectation that homebuilding will ease next year, as modest population growth weighs on rents, and weak pre-sales activity feeds through to weak starts in the ownership market.     

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    Gif is the imagined usefulness of the person who wrote the article if they had to actually work in the construction industry.

    "Herp derp, housing numbers going down because reasons. Don't look over here where things are going poorly on purpose to suit a narrative. Just trust the words of a banker who works for one of the most corrupt banks in the world; if not the most corrupt bank in the world."

    Here is a quick excerpt of details from an AI search via Google about TD Canada Trust. Take a shaker of salt with you on this, as it is AI. That said, the links provided all go to real pages (so far), so take that for what it's worth.

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    The TD Bank Money Laundering Scandal

    In a coordinated resolution in October 2024, the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ), the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN), and other regulators announced significant penalties against TD Bank. The key details of the case include: 

    • Guilty Plea: TD Bank pleaded guilty to conspiracy to commit money laundering and Bank Secrecy Act violations in the U.S..
    • Amount Laundered: The bank's weak anti-money laundering (AML) program allowed three different money laundering networks to move more than $670 million in drug proceeds through its U.S. accounts between 2019 and 2023. The proceeds included money from fentanyl sales.
    • Employee Involvement: Court documents revealed that bank employees in certain New York branches accepted bribes (including gift cards) from a criminal ring leader, Da Ying Sze, to facilitate the illicit transactions.
    • Penalties and Restrictions: In addition to the massive fines, the bank was placed under a three-year monitorship and had growth restrictions imposed on its U.S. retail business.
    • Canadian Oversight: Canada's anti-money laundering agency, FINTRAC, also imposed a separate, albeit smaller, fine of $6.7 million on TD in May 2024 for failing to report suspicious transactions. 

    Global Context

    While the scandal is historic for a Canadian bank and has led to global scrutiny (including Norway's sovereign wealth fund placing the bank on an observation list), industry observers note that other major international banks have also faced significant money laundering accusations and fines in the past.

  • There won’t be significant new housing until the governments “encourage” the creation of thousands of apartment buildings, 4-plexes throughout cities, and prefab mini-home neighbourhoods.