Anyone else thinks that implementing a capital gains tax could discourage individuals from selling their stocks? Ultimately leading to a decrease in revenue from the transaction tax (TOB). If fewer people engage in selling or trading stocks, the overall tax revenue may decline. Instead, Belgium should focus on creating an attractive investment environment. By promoting policies that encourage capital inflow and facilitate transactions, the country could boost market activity and, in turn, generate increased TOB revenue.
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I also think TOB will be a lot less ...... the whole process is way too complex for most people. Opt-in is NOT an option. Opt-out is a must. But with both you will have additional admin in your tax declaration. For a couple of trades (Euro) it's doable but if you trade more frequently and trade in different currencies it becomes complexer and most of all uncertain how many trades will be considered as speculative where they could tax us 33%.
I'm slowly rotating into boring belgian holdings in a seperate belgian broker. They're trading at a nav discount and they have to return profits to shareholders (dividends). Additionally having a very slight overweight of the local economy/market is a good move as given by current example in venezuela, which currently is the best performing local stock market % wise.
Given the fact that the majority of Belgians still prefer to take the guaranteed loss of a savings account instead of taking a bit of risk with stocks or ETF's to get some positive returns, TOB will certainly drop imo.
Capital gains tax is once again a confirmation of the saying: "Once the workers are allowed to join, the party is over."
In the short term it will stop many people from looking into stock/ ETF investing in the first place, in an era when it has never been easier for regular people to start investing. It will also stop newbie investors who are still building their portfolios from investing more, because they now have the feeling they are already getting scr*wed over. Especially with opt-in: you automatically hand over 10% on every sell order from the first euro.
Maybe, but you're forgetting the extra bonus for the government...
I expect most amateurs will not opt out. That means all capital gains are taxed. A lot of them (but certainly not all!) will remember to get that tax reimbursement for capital gains up to 10k, which is paid up to 18 months later.
The advantages for the government: 1: free loan! Even if the tob income goes down a bit because of this, they have to pay less interest on their debt. 2: free money! Many people will forget to ask for the reimbursement for up to 10k. It sounds stupid (and it is!) but a lot of my friends don't understand how to do this even for the withholding tax on dividends, essentially giving the government that money... 3: more extra money! Those who do opt out have to list their transactions, making it easier for the government to slap extra taxes on it for doing speculative trades or being a professional.
If you believe that the goal is to maintain CGT at 10%, I’ve got news for you..
i am too of that opinion. a capital gains tax from 2026 will almost certainly change behaviour. people will sell less, rebalance less and hold on to positions longer to defer taxation. that directly reduces transaction volume and therefore TOB revenue.
belgium already taxes transactions heavily compared to many other countries. stacking a CGT on top assumes investors behave the same way as before. they won’t. capital is mobile and market activity can simply move elsewhere.
if the objective is stable tax revenue, discouraging trading while relying on a transaction tax is internally inconsistent. you risk shrinking the tax base on both sides.
I think it won't bring in enough money therefore they'll raise the capital gains tax again =D
Most likely
It has happend before when they introduced the speculation tax. The loss in TOB was larger than the gain from the speculation tax.
I do not have a strong opinion on the evolution of TOB income of the government ( more or less transactions )
I do think the CGT makes it less attractive for new people to start investing ( which will influence the TOB income )
People who blow all their money on fun things and end up with no money in the bank are envious of people who saved. There are more deadbeats than savers and thus more voters to gained by serving those jealous people. Enter: Vooruit.
They are not interested in your logic, they hate you for having money that should be in their pocket.
And it's not going to get better.
"more deadbeats than savers" Sure: https://www.spaargids.be/sparen/argenta-nieuws/steeds-meer-belgen-sparen.html#:~:text=Het%20aantal%20Belgen%20dat%20actief,tegenover%2020%25%20van%20de%20vrouwen.
In my experience, the "deadbeats" you talk about are more likely to vote for conservative parties rather than left-wing ones. Immigrants are a far higher priority for them than "savers".
By contrast, as somebody who is likely in the top percentile earners, I have voted left-wing all my life as I believe a more equitable society is in the interest of everybody. However, I sure appreciate the efforts of people who earn much less than me to help me save on taxes.
On this particular case, it surprises me that there isn't much clarity yet. Though from where I come from, the CGT is much higher than 10%, so I appreciate while it lasts.
I disagree on the first part but why would you vote left wing in Belgium as a top earner ? Don’t you think you pay enough taxes already ? (I’m not attacking you I’m curious really)
My guess is that not everyone is self-centred. Some people want to help their community rather than systematically attacking social security nets.
After all, our redistribution system has worked well considering income inequality is among the lowest while we have one of the highest median wealth per capita in the world.
Wealth inequality is rising though. That's because capital is easily sheltered from taxation, contrary to labour. Many countries are studying implementing some form of general capital gains tax (such as Norway). Imo, we're bound to do the same.
I don’t see being liberal as being self centered. The question is more about, is the public sector able to be efficient in what it does or would a private system do better ? In Belgium we have countless examples of public money being misused. Plus being more liberal people are free to be generous but with their money, instead of demanding everyone to be generous towards everyone, which creates a weird power dynamic if you think about it, because poor people may resent the rich people for being rich whilst needing their money, and rich people may resent poor people for costing them. I think we can see such example nowadays with more and more people criticising unemployed benefits, Flemish criticising waloons etc. A more liberal state is an ideal where so many companies can be created that everyone can care for themselves by working a fair job. I don’t really think it’s being self centered. And yes a better society benefits everyone so you might want that but a better society in a liberal mind is a society where everyone is employed and happy, and I don’t see any left wing party promoting anything going in that direction at the moment, basically all they advocate for is taxing the rich more
Spare me the familiar tropes: left-wing "deadbeats", the myth of the inefficient public sector, redistribution creating artificial class conflict, and the likes. These are ideological shortcuts, rarely backed by facts.
The issue of "self-centredness" is not about liberalism in general, it is about your framing, which reduces left-wing politics to "wanting to take my money". That framing conveniently avoids engaging with what taxes actually fund, and why some people, including high earners, see them as a legitimate and necessary contribution rather than a pure loss.
Even mainstream right-wing economists such as De Grauwe point out that the idea of "self-made entrepreneurs carrying the state on their backs" is largely fictional. Markets do not exist in a vacuum; they are built on publicly funded education, healthcare, infrastructure and institutions.
That’s not at all what I have said or implied but all right mate you do you… was just saying we can reflect about private systems sometimes being more efficient (I’m thinking about health sustem, is it sustainable ? If we look at more liberal countries with a private system, can we get inspired ? Which is the more efficient ?). My reflection is not about saying anyone is a “deadbeat” as you say or saying every rich guy “deserves “ the money (whatever that means). Is it wrong that I say that people receiving freebees by the government are maybe kept ostage by it ? I’m just saying promoting a liberal economy to create jobs is maybe better than giving money to anyone to just exist, because it is a disservice to do that and then some people will call them lazy or parasites. I have never said so myself. I’m not saying I’m right or I am a kind of know all liberal prophet bro, I’m just saying we could have this debate in the public space. I don’t maybe I’m wrong but I have never said left wing politics is only about taking “my” money in just saying that’s all I hear in the media from our left wingers as a miracle solution for now. If the state and the public is the most efficient at managing something then be it, I have never said all our public system is a waste. But let’s be honest is it really that efficient as for now? And entrepreneurs and companies might not carry everything on their shoulders but they damn well contribute to society, to fund the public system that should create their following, it’s supposed to be a virtue chain.
First of all, I cannot vote in national or regional elections. Yet? But I already explained: I think a more equitable society is in the interest of everyone. If people who earn more don't contribute more who will? That being said, I also think there are far bigger fishes we should ask to contribute more, as a Europe-wide initiative (the mega corps obviously).
I am not too familiar with the history of left-wing parties in Belgium / Flanders. But if I could vote what would be the alternative? I would never vote for a flemish identitary party. It is obviously not my fight, neither the "moderates" of the NVA nor obviously the fascists of VB. Who's left? The centrists parties do not inspire me much.
I do think I pay a lot of taxes, that's true. Not much higher than the average in EU (there are worse places I think). But it also matters the life I can afford with what's left. Taxes could be 70% for what matters, but at the end of the day for me matters what I can do with what's left. So I see it more as an ephemeral issue.
I wonder how much revenue the TOB brings in.
In my view, a consequence of CGT will be that rebalancing portfolios (e.g. shifting to bonds closer to retirement) will become less attractive. If you also add in the Reynderstax, it may incentivise retail investors to keep positions that carry a level of risk that is beyond what is appropriate. I'm not sure this is sound policymaking.
I don't think so, I think people will cash out quicker to use the 10k exemption, paying TOB each time.
10k is peanuts though
true, but it's 1K less taxes and people are all about that
That's true, but for many investors, especially those with portfolios in the six- to seven-figure range, the capital gains tax could deter trading altogether once their profits exceed the €10,000 exemption. If they only sell once a year to stay within this limit, the overall contribution to TOB would be minimal. This approach doesn't foster significant market activity or revenue generation.
Hmm, i think there is two types of investors: buy and hold and more speculative. The first one will now have more transactions: every year to take advantage of the exemption. The second one will keep on trading like they were trading. You seem to think that trading less will result in less capital gains tax, but that reasoning is flawed. If i dont trade this year, i'll have to pay more next year or the year after that (everyone needs to cash out someday). It should not affect your strategy. Only taxes like TOB should affect your trading frequency.
Cashing out in another country is a more dangerous problem, but that was not your point.
While I don’t plan on selling my core positions, I do rebalance every few months to manage risk. TOB adds up quite fast on big sums of money and a lot of people will now just hold out on rebalancing their portfolio altogether. Many of us seem to think that a lot of people will use the 10k exemption but forget that it's very complicated to track. Most investors will choose convenience over complexity and simply stay stagnant.
Ultimately, I fear this will drive capital out of Belgium—if it hasn't already. When the capital of the wealthy leaves, the tax burden inevitably shifts toward the middle class. If someone can simply move abroad and cash out tax-free after two years, why wouldn't they? After being taxed so heavily throughout their careers, it's not just a strategic move; it's their right.
Lets say there is no exemption to simplify the situation (since you claim it will not be used by a lot of people). Still then, what drives you to be more stagnant? Please try this exercise: you have 100000 in profit. What is the most tax efficient way to cash this out with a capital gains tax of 10%. Exactly: it does not matter one bit if you do this over 1 year, 10 years, 10000 transactions or 3, it is always €10000 in total capital gains taxes. Of course you could buy new positions in between and maybe even make more profit. Profit is GOOD. It is what you want. There is not a single mechanism that works against trading frequency. If you choose to opt in, the tax will even be dealt with automaticly, so ease is not an argument either.
To be clear: i'm not a fan of the tax, just saying that your argument is not true.
Money leaving the country is a valid concern, but again, this is not the argument that i'm responding to.
Staying stagnant results in less TOB being paid because there is fewer or no transactions. Not sure why that is so hard to grasp? The most efficiënt way to cash out would be to leave the country and use some debt for 2 years. After you can fully enjoy the capital. In my case I will use some margin whenever I need to get money out and use my stocks as collateral. That way I never have to sell.
As Per design of the whole thing. A system to cash in and boost the governmental books
10k is for all stocks sold once per year though... :\ People that make more than 10k will do what?
Keep it until the figure is big enough, and use investment loans in between. Then move to another country without cgt for two years to liquidate my assets, come back.
I'm interested. How would this work practically?
It should be relatively simple to factor in a two year break on the Med on retirement.
I'm not entirely upto date, and the law hasn't been voted yet. Bus as I understand it, and as it stands now. You have to pay an exit tax if you leave Belgium and realise your capital gains in a foreign country (most absurd theft I have ever heard of). But that cancels out if you live abroad for two years or more before liquidating your assets.
If course if that time comes I'd hire a tax consultant and see what he says. And of course moving abroad costs you money, but I'd rather burn it than give it to the Belgian government at this point.
Pay cgt