This spaghetti-fied mess is called an MJO phase-space diagram. It's used to predict where larger storm systems are expected to set up around the earth's equator. Where these storms set up determines our weather patterns days and weeks out.
We've been looking at medium confience level storms setting up mostly in the Western Pacific for the past few months, but recently, model data is starting to point to these storms moving toward the Western Hemisphere and Africa. Phase 7 patterns usually mean warmer temps and less precip for our area.
The forecast shows MJO gradually shifting towards Phase 8 in coming weeks. What that means for us on the east coast and southeast, for winter time months, is often more cold, and longer lasting cold snaps.
Confidence for this pattern sustaining grow lower further out in time. Greater chances of systems setting up in one of the 8 slices are indicated by how far away from the center circle they are. Closer to the circle, weaker chance/more unknowns.. further away from the circle means a stronger relatively more reliable signal.
In short, winter is back on the table for us here on the East Coast and Southeast.
This spaghetti-fied mess is called an MJO phase-space diagram. It's used to predict where larger storm systems are expected to set up around the earth's equator. Where these storms set up determines our weather patterns days and weeks out.
We've been looking at medium confience level storms setting up mostly in the Western Pacific for the past few months, but recently, model data is starting to point to these storms moving toward the Western Hemisphere and Africa. Phase 7 patterns usually mean warmer temps and less precip for our area.
The forecast shows MJO gradually shifting towards Phase 8 in coming weeks. What that means for us on the east coast and southeast, for winter time months, is often more cold, and longer lasting cold snaps.
Confidence for this pattern sustaining grow lower further out in time. Greater chances of systems setting up in one of the 8 slices are indicated by how far away from the center circle they are. Closer to the circle, weaker chance/more unknowns.. further away from the circle means a stronger relatively more reliable signal.
In short, winter is back on the table for us here on the East Coast and Southeast.
More data here: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml
By winter, do you mean snow? Pls say yes