If you want to have an outdoor BBQ on Thanksgiving, the GFS is your friend. If you want to sit inside huddled by a barely working heat vent, the Euro-AI is your go-to.
Right now, models are all over the place as we look 14ish days towards the end of hte month. Signs point to an arctic blast happening late Nov into early Dec, but how far south the jet stream bends remains to be seen.
No chances of any wintry weather with even the worst case blast of cold air - however as with all cold air boundaries there comes an increased chance of severe weather (strong storms, tornadoes and hail). Def going to keep a close eye on this.
As we go further into December, again models vary. December into January look like our best shot at cold, miserable weather. While areas to our north may see some truly bitter cold, as of now we may be spared the worst - and chances of snow/ice are not super good this Winter (weather will always weather though...)
Oceanic patterns look to gradually shift out of La Nina into ENSO-Neutral by January 26, and from there we can likely expect an early spring based on current NOAA ENSO analysis
It really is. I suspect IF we get a nice cooldown it would be more towards mid/late Dec. ENSO-Neutral patterns can be a little tricky to predict, but the long range models are suggesting more warm than cold once we get into late Jan and onward.
There is a non-zero chance of snow this year, and ENSO-Neutral patterns (as we are expected to shift to towards January) can bring a real mixed bag. Weather is always gonna weather, so don't give up hope just yet!
If you want to have an outdoor BBQ on Thanksgiving, the GFS is your friend. If you want to sit inside huddled by a barely working heat vent, the Euro-AI is your go-to.
Right now, models are all over the place as we look 14ish days towards the end of hte month. Signs point to an arctic blast happening late Nov into early Dec, but how far south the jet stream bends remains to be seen.
No chances of any wintry weather with even the worst case blast of cold air - however as with all cold air boundaries there comes an increased chance of severe weather (strong storms, tornadoes and hail). Def going to keep a close eye on this.
As we go further into December, again models vary. December into January look like our best shot at cold, miserable weather. While areas to our north may see some truly bitter cold, as of now we may be spared the worst - and chances of snow/ice are not super good this Winter (weather will always weather though...)
Oceanic patterns look to gradually shift out of La Nina into ENSO-Neutral by January 26, and from there we can likely expect an early spring based on current NOAA ENSO analysis
Wow, what a difference!
It really is. I suspect IF we get a nice cooldown it would be more towards mid/late Dec. ENSO-Neutral patterns can be a little tricky to predict, but the long range models are suggesting more warm than cold once we get into late Jan and onward.
Damn. I was hoping for another Snowmageddon this year.
There is a non-zero chance of snow this year, and ENSO-Neutral patterns (as we are expected to shift to towards January) can bring a real mixed bag. Weather is always gonna weather, so don't give up hope just yet!