As of this morning at 10am, Potential Tropical Storm 09L has yet to really come together south of the Bahamas. There are a few chess pieces on the board for this one, including Hurricane Humberto, a dry air mass over the southeastern US, and a high pressure ridge over the northeast.
Humberto is 100% a fish storm, but it may have influence over 09L. If 09L moves faster and gets out in front of Humberto, chances of landfall increase since it will tangle less with Humberto. If 09L is slow to form, Humberto will act in our favor, as a little blocking mechanism to 09L making landfall.
If 09L forms and speeds up, it's chances of landfall go up - and there are more scenarios.. the dry air will provide shear and potentially weaken/disrupt the storm. Shear in this case isn't really wind shear and more of pockets of dry air getting pulled into the storm's core and wreaking havoc (a weakening action). Also to our north is a high pressure ridge. This ridge will encourage the storm to not move up the coast.
So if 09L (which is accurately "potential tropical storm nine") makes landfall, there is a greater probability that it will hang out on or near the SC/NC coast - possibly for a couple days. It could also drift back out to sea.
What this means for Athens GA: right now it's hard to make any kind of forecast since we still don't have an actual storm as of right now (10am Saturday). IF, if this thing amps and gets out in front of Humberto, and makes landfall in SC.. we won't see the brunt of the heavy rains/winds in Athens.
When looking at hurricane impact fields, esp on land, the danger areas are North, Northeast and East of the storm's core. We saw this last year with Helene - the core moved almost right over us, yet the majority of impacts were felt well east of us.
Will we see rain? Yes, I'd say that is likely (but not 100%).
Will 09L move inland further south or west of current guidance? I'd say that is fairly unlikely, but weather is always gonna weather so it's worth keeping an eye on.
As of this morning tho, I'd say our chances of seeing super spicy weather from 09L are probably 0-5%.
As of this morning at 10am, Potential Tropical Storm 09L has yet to really come together south of the Bahamas. There are a few chess pieces on the board for this one, including Hurricane Humberto, a dry air mass over the southeastern US, and a high pressure ridge over the northeast.
Humberto is 100% a fish storm, but it may have influence over 09L. If 09L moves faster and gets out in front of Humberto, chances of landfall increase since it will tangle less with Humberto. If 09L is slow to form, Humberto will act in our favor, as a little blocking mechanism to 09L making landfall.
If 09L forms and speeds up, it's chances of landfall go up - and there are more scenarios.. the dry air will provide shear and potentially weaken/disrupt the storm. Shear in this case isn't really wind shear and more of pockets of dry air getting pulled into the storm's core and wreaking havoc (a weakening action). Also to our north is a high pressure ridge. This ridge will encourage the storm to not move up the coast.
So if 09L (which is accurately "potential tropical storm nine") makes landfall, there is a greater probability that it will hang out on or near the SC/NC coast - possibly for a couple days. It could also drift back out to sea.
What this means for Athens GA: right now it's hard to make any kind of forecast since we still don't have an actual storm as of right now (10am Saturday). IF, if this thing amps and gets out in front of Humberto, and makes landfall in SC.. we won't see the brunt of the heavy rains/winds in Athens.
When looking at hurricane impact fields, esp on land, the danger areas are North, Northeast and East of the storm's core. We saw this last year with Helene - the core moved almost right over us, yet the majority of impacts were felt well east of us.
Will we see rain? Yes, I'd say that is likely (but not 100%).
Will 09L move inland further south or west of current guidance? I'd say that is fairly unlikely, but weather is always gonna weather so it's worth keeping an eye on.
As of this morning tho, I'd say our chances of seeing super spicy weather from 09L are probably 0-5%.
What does "fish storm" mean?
It means there is a signifigantly high probability that fish will be impacted by this storm, and not much else 🐟😏
I thought it was a Potential Tropical Cyclone.
It already is
Storm categorization changes as they strengthen and weaken. This is expected and normal.
Duh. Storm > Cyclone. It's been a long week.